FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Captain Snow

Billcarson wrote: »

Tonight's gfs parallel run for what it's worth looks tasty in the far reaches of fi.

Blizzards snow love it. Break out the snow shovels

Billcarson

Captain Snow wrote: »

Blizzards snow love it. Break out the snow shovels

If charts like them come to within 96 hrs I will.

Villain

GEFS trending 850 temps down in FI

Dublin:

Reversal

Met Eireann monthly;

"Week 3 (Friday 05 February to Thursday 11 February)

This period brings an increase in uncertainty but current indications suggest that low pressure south of Ireland and high pressure to the north will bring a dominantly easterly airflow over the country. This easterly airflow will bring near normal or slightly colder than normal temperatures across Ireland, with a risk of frosts at night. Much of the country will experience near normal rainfall, with the northwest indicated to be drier than normal. However, the south and east coasts are indicated to be slightly wetter than normal as the easterly flow will feed showers from the Irish Sea into these areas. There is potential for some showers to turn wintry given the cold temperatures."

Careful language, but nice to see.

Donegal Storm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You have to wonder after all these years of Internet model watching if there is a point??
I mean the max reliability seems to be 7/8 days
So what's the point we may aswell tune into Met Eireann once a night instead.
Anyway re the charts the trend remains for a subdued period of wintryness esp between Friday and Sunday

Something I slowly learned over the years! I still check the models every once in a while but generally just watch the 9.30 forecast and leave it at that. Zero disappointments or getting hopes up as a result

mcburns07

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Something I slowly learned over the years! I still check the models every once in a while but generally just watch the 9.30 forecast and leave it at that. Zero disappointments or getting hopes up as a result

I think as long as you accept that things don't usually pan out the way they're shown 5+ days out there's no harm at looking at the models or reading the interpretations of others.

That way you get to know about upcoming events like Storm Emma in advance of the media picking them up

Reversal

Reversal wrote: »

Met Eireann monthly;

"Week 3 (Friday 05 February to Thursday 11 February)

This period brings an increase in uncertainty but current indications suggest that low pressure south of Ireland and high pressure to the north will bring a dominantly easterly airflow over the country. This easterly airflow will bring near normal or slightly colder than normal temperatures across Ireland, with a risk of frosts at night. Much of the country will experience near normal rainfall, with the northwest indicated to be drier than normal. However, the south and east coasts are indicated to be slightly wetter than normal as the easterly flow will feed showers from the Irish Sea into these areas. There is potential for some showers to turn wintry given the cold temperatures."

Careful language, but nice to see.

I'm guessing this is based on the EC46, but a number of cold and snowy easterlies showing among the 06z GEFS approaching this timeframe

Gonzo

most definitely signs of a colder trend on this mornings GFS towards the end of it's runs. Not worth getting exciting about yet until we see how this evolves over the next week leading to anything.



The Iberian/Azores high moves away from Iberia (which has been there for much of this winter). Once we get this out of our way it should be easier to dig colder air further south.



Baby steps towards something more positive perhaps.

Gonzo

GFS 12z maintains the cold trend from this morning.





Pub run could back track on this.

Meteorite58

Atlantic more mobile next week out to +240 hrs with some milder weather from around mid week, bigger rain amounts shifting to Atlantic coastal counties. A few lows moving quickly past us, currently showing some windy conditions in coastal areas perhaps. Thought the Jet might throw up a deep depression or storm but nothing too strong looking yet apart from gales around the coast..

Reversal

Have the models been listening to MT? All the 12z show an arctic high pushing west near North Siberia in the day 8+ range. The ECM drives it towards Svalbard by day 10, opening the door for a real beast from the east into Scandinavia and Eastern Europe.

ninebeanrows

Would be nice to see a real push from the Arctic high in day 6,7

Charts could trend towards this over coming days and it would make a tremendous difference.

TheMilkyPirate

18Z keeps the cold trend going in the far reaches of FI





Few more frames would have been nice there

Gonzo

tonights pub run still trending cold but has a very mild blip before the end which is an outlier. The mild blip from later next week into the following week is showing signs of losing some members from mild to cool/cold.

Gonzo

I get the feeling we are already weakening that cold trend at the end of the GFS, and the Iberian high pushes back in over Spain and we never really lose those height's to our south.

Once we get this cool snap out of the way we are in for a relatively mild and atlantic driven pattern for the last week of January and possibly well into the first week of February.

nacho libre

The likes of Clonmel will be happy if that comes to pass. Less so if the CFS is correct. It has been consistently showing colder weather through most of Feburary.

mcburns07

Gonzo wrote: »

I get the feeling we are already weakening that cold trend at the end of the GFS, and the Iberian high pushes back in over Spain and we never really lose those height's to our south.

Once we get this cool snap out of the way we are in for a relatively mild and atlantic driven pattern for the last week of January and possibly well into the first week of February.

This chart is 16 days away?

Tyrone212

mcburns07 wrote: »

This chart is 16 days away?

16 days away. More chance of Susan Boyle coming down my chimney next Christmas than a 16 day GFS verifying.

Reversal

Gonzo wrote: »

I get the feeling we are already weakening that cold trend at the end of the GFS, and the Iberian high pushes back in over Spain and we never really lose those height's to our south.

Once we get this cool snap out of the way we are in for a relatively mild and atlantic driven pattern for the last week of January and possibly well into the first week of February.

All theoretical at that timeframe, but last few frames of the the 12z GFS shows the most robust route to a proper cold spell we've seen in FI for a while. Proper amplification if the Azores high into Scandinavia while pressure drops over Europe

Gonzo

mcburns07 wrote: »

This chart is 16 days away?

and this is fantasy island, everything from 120 hours to 384 hours and beyond is welcome here. Nothing on this thread is within a reliable time frame.

Arduach

Tyrone212 wrote: »

16 days away. More chance of Susan Boyle coming down my chimney next Christmas than a 16 day GFS verifying.

Would that be a fantasy of yours:P

Villain

Rampers gonna ramp

https://twitter.com/matthugo81/status/1352358568360611859?s=21

Tyrone212

Arduach wrote: »

Would that be a fantasy of yours:P

Only if she shaves first.

pad199207

Tyrone212 wrote: »

Only if she shaves first.

This forum never fails

Donegal Ken

Tyrone212 wrote: »

16 days away. More chance of Susan Boyle coming down my chimney next Christmas than a 16 day GFS verifying.

I am sure we could organise that for you 😂

Villain

I'm liking the trends this morning and the rampers are ramping on the long term signals. The mild blip doesn't look to last too long. The latest GEFS here:

TheMilkyPirate

Some nice charts at the end of FI on the 06Z. Could we be headed for a very cold start to February, The signs are there.

Reversal

12z GFS gives an interesting prospect out in FI.



The cold pool coming down through Scandinavia looks a bit marginal though. :pac:

Gonzo

it's all very much up in the air, same story since mid December. The GFS P was showing a beast in this mornings run, I probably have a better chance of winning the lotto.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

it's all very much up in the air, same story since mid December. The GFS P was showing a beast in this mornings run, I probably have a better chance of winning the lotto.

The difference is the mjo, which is conducive to a high latitude block, is now moving into a more favourable phase. It may amount to nothing, but given the ec 46 and the UK Met Office are suggesting this possibility too, we are in with a chance.