FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

There is something to be said for the old days when we just relied on tv forecasts. The GFS going out past 240 is helpful sometimes in picking up a favourable signal. With this in mind hopefully the latest para run is on to something in deep FI, and the other models begin to pick up on it.

nacho libre

Look at what is happening to the lows above the Arctic high on the ECM. I wonder are we going to see the Vortex shift from Asia to Canada eventually?

compsys

nacho libre wrote: »

There is something to be said for the old days when we just relied on tv forecasts. The GFS going out past 240 is helpful sometimes in picking up a favourable signal. With this in mind hopefully the latest para run is on to something in deep FI, and the other models begin to pick up on it.

Or remember the days when you were younger and you'd simply look out the window in the morning and it would have snowed!

It's quiet in here.


*** looks around suspiciously ***


Maybe, too quiet.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's quiet in here.


*** looks around suspiciously ***


Maybe, too quiet.

Well...day 10 of tonights ECM has a SW Europe Bartlett high
There's still cross northern latitude easterlies a few hundred kms north of Norway blocking any route south of cold in Europe or to GB/Ireland and dispersing their own cold still 100s if not 1000's of kms out into the Atlantic where it curls up into an arm of the jet that's going to send us nice damp windy wet mild weather
Well nice is being kind
Sh1t would be a better word
They say words draw a 1000 pictures,so that's why I'm sparing you the pretty orange picture that I Could attach to this post but thought I'd spare the vomit...

That all being said 5 days is as far as is semi reliable and there is what mt alluded to yesterday to watch and its that high moving west near those Russian islands with the not so Russian name,a movement similar to the genesis of the Feb early march 18 beast
We've a 3 to 4 week window
There's lots more potential here that I'd be expecting to bear fruit assuming the German and Polish met service are right

nacho libre

I have a feeling the ECM in a few days might look different. Could we see the azores high ridging north eastwards in late January into February?

Billcarson

Wouldnt be surprised to see the models flip in the next 7-10 days to show a decent cold spell in a semi reliable time frame.
My money is still on the first week of feb.

Gonzo

Billcarson wrote: »

Wouldnt be surprised to see the models flip in the next 7-10 days to show a decent cold spell in a semi reliable time frame.
My money is still on the first week of feb.

It might happen, have to wait and see.

ECM is predicting a mild push for next week and then cooler into the first half of February.

Next week we start getting milder than average temperatures especially across the south with mild south-westerlies.



1st week of February may see a cool down.



2nd week of February suggests cold going well south and the possibility of cold northerlies or north-easterlys. We may even finally get rid of that Iberian high which moves into SE Europe.



Major straw clutching going on here.

nacho libre

It might not be considering the UK Met Office update suggest this might happen also.
It will be interesting to see the next Met Eireann monthly forecast, as i suspect much of their forecast is based on the EC46.

nacho libre

A good pub run from the para and old GFS to end January and see us into February. It would be nice if we could count it down from now.

Gonzo

GFS Operational 18z tries to get an easterly going towards the end of it's run and it's decently cold for a few days.

bazlers

bazlers wrote: »

Interesting post by RJS (Netweather)
The 1050 mb high north of Siberia has moved 17 deg west since 00z (142 to 125 E). Let's say that's a bit exaggerated by analysis error, and call it 10 deg in 18 hours -- that would bring it into the Kara Sea and near Franz Josef Land by late in the week. IIRC the 2018 beast from the east had its origins with high pressure moving southwest from Franz Josef Land. (for anyone who didn't know this, FJ Land is the cluster of islands east of Svalbard/Spitsbergen. It is Russian territory. Novaya Zemlya is the double island to the east of that closer to the Russian mainland. The New Siberian Islands are the archipelago just west of the current location of the high.

Any acceleration of this high would be a big player especially if the Poles are right about the delayed effects of the SSW.

Just an update on its movement. (Post by RJS Netweather)
Hopfully it comes into play in early February. Hope is all we have : )

"The strong arctic high I was tracking a few days ago has drifted northwest to around 84N 110E. From there it seems most likely to start dropping southwest into Russia near the Urals. I don't expect models to do extremely well with its further progress being that close to the North Pole where tiny changes of latitude or longitude especially get amplified quickly.

The central pressure has remained fairly constant around 1050 mb."

Gonzo

latest GFS 12z is horrible, the Atlantic has it's game face on.Plenty of rain over the next 2 weeks and mild weather, sometimes very mild.

DOCARCH

Gonzo wrote: »

latest GFS 12z is horrible, the Atlantic has it's game face on.Plenty of rain over the next 2 weeks and mild weather, sometimes very mild.

Always the bearer of good news! :P I....cannot....wait!

nacho libre

Well the long range UK Met Office still offers hope, but the emphasis is on northerlies rather than anything from the east or north east.

Tuesday 2 Feb - Tuesday 16 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though low pressure is likely to be dominant at first with an increased chance of northerly winds. This will therefore increase the risk of snowfall especially in the north along with colder than average temperatures. Potentially bringing wintry hazards more widely. Through mid-February higher pressure may develop for a time which would bring drier conditions with an increased likelihood of fog and cold nights.

A good northerly, this is one with a direct feed, can deliver quite widely here. We need something like December 2000. if it's going to be just more of what we had then forget it.

mcburns07

DOCARCH wrote: »

Always the bearer of good news! :P I....cannot....wait!

We need some balance in our moderators, Gonzo is a glass half empty kind of guy when it comes to prospects!

nacho libre

mcburns07 wrote: »

We need some balance in our moderators, Gonzo is a glass half empty kind of guy when it comes to prospects!

Well the way this winter has gone so far i don't blame him being negative. So many false dawns. Some of the models are hinting at height rises to the north east towards the end of January. I think if February is not to be yet another example of being led up the garden path, we will see the models firming up on this idea in the next 4 to five days.

Larbre34

mcburns07 wrote: »

We need some balance in our moderators, Gonzo is a glass half empty kind of guy when it comes to prospects!

I think we'd all just as soon hear the facts.

mcburns07

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think we'd all just as soon hear the facts.

It's not a fact though? It's a model making a prediction, the same model that has been leading us up the garden path for weeks now with prospects of cold and snow.

munsterlegend

mcburns07 wrote: »

It's not a fact though? It's a model making a prediction, the same model that has been leading us up the garden path for weeks now with prospects of cold and snow.

Models usually spot on when it comes to rain for here though.

Nqp15hhu

Anyone notice how warm fronts head further north than predicted aswell?

Gonzo

nacho libre wrote: »

Well the way this winter has gone so far i don't blame him being negative. So many false dawns. Some of the models are hinting at height rises to the north east towards the end of January. I think if February is not to be yet another example of being led up the garden path, we will see the models firming up on this idea in the next 4 to five days.

Over the past 15 years I have seen more than my fair share of great looking trends and models blow up for us. This winter has been disappointing considering all the potential but when wonderful promise in FI continues into the reliable time frame and then goes pear shaped within 72 hours it can be much harder to accept, such as winter 2012. This happened regularly too before 2009 so I always have to take these models with a pinch of salt most of the time when it comes to proper cold and snow for Ireland.

The same is true with cold zonality, the charts particularly the GFS usually overcooks the snow potential and this get's pulled back alot the closer we get to the event. They are usually very marginal and turn into a nowcast situation.

I still think we are well within a decent shot this February but will be very cautious about it, no point building people up for a big snow event until you are completely sure it is going to happen.

munsterlegend

Gonzo wrote: »

Over the past 15 years I have seen more than my fair share of great looking trends and models blow up for us. This winter has been disappointing considering all the potential but when wonderful promise in FI continues into the reliable time frame and then goes pear shaped within 72 hours it can be much harder to accept, such as winter 2012. This happened regularly too before 2009 so I always have to take these models with a pinch of salt most of the time when it comes to proper cold and snow for Ireland.

The same is true with cold zonality, the charts particularly the GFS usually overcooks the snow potential and this get's pulled back alot the closer we get to the event. They are usually very marginal and turn into a nowcast situation.

I still think we are well within a decent shot this February but will be very cautious about it, no point building people up for a big snow event until you are completely sure it is going to happen.

Very true. Unless cross model/professional forecasters agreement within 72 hours of a snow event that is the time to get excited. Obviously fun if you have the knowledge to tease out the models but for our little island so many things can and do go wrong when it comes to snow.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

Over the past 15 years I have seen more than my fair share of great looking trends and models blow up for us. This winter has been disappointing considering all the potential but when wonderful promise in FI continues into the reliable time frame and then goes pear shaped within 72 hours it can be much harder to accept, such as winter 2012. This happened regularly too before 2009 so I always have to take these models with a pinch of salt most of the time when it comes to proper cold and snow for Ireland.

The same is true with cold zonality, the charts particularly the GFS usually overcooks the snow potential and this get's pulled back alot the closer we get to the event. They are usually very marginal and turn into a nowcast situation.

I still think we are well within a decent shot this February but will be very cautious about it, no point building people up for a big snow event until you are completely sure it is going to happen.

Yes, you are right we've seen many easterlies disappear at close range over the years, no point in ramping till it's within three or four days- even then we've seen easterlies disappear. With the cold spells in 2010 and 2018 we saw the models form a consensus on a cold outbreak and they did not really waver at all. Hopefully we can see something similar from the models within the next week as regards a snowy spell in February.

bazlers

bazlers wrote: »

Just an update on its movement. (Post by RJS Netweather)
Hopfully it comes into play in early February. Hope is all we have : )

"The strong arctic high I was tracking a few days ago has drifted northwest to around 84N 110E. From there it seems most likely to start dropping southwest into Russia near the Urals. I don't expect models to do extremely well with its further progress being that close to the North Pole where tiny changes of latitude or longitude especially get amplified quickly.

The central pressure has remained fairly constant around 1050 mb."

Again im just updating on this progress of a siberian high as I think it could be of benefit to us come February or maybe not who knows.. but still i find it interseting anyhow. Again quoated post from RJS on Netweather

"That arctic high I was tracking had made it to 85N 90E by 12z today. The 60 to 84h prog positions for it are indeed near Franz Josef Land (roughly 80N and 60E). But unforunately the models generally seem to think it will then get sucked back into the Mongolian high via west Siberia, except that a small bubble high remains near the White Sea and eventually pushes into Finland and Sweden. So it may be doing something positive for cold and snow seekers anyway. And the models could be wrong, it could decide to split in a different ratio with more of it (a stronger high in other words) heading for Scandinavia. I would expect that, if it does happen at all, to come in the first week of February and the most likely time for it to impact Britain might be the second or even third weeks of February.

At some point there was a continuous chain of high pressure from China through Mongolia, the polar regions, western Canada all the way to Utah. It would be nice to see that joined by another chain that extends your way before all is said and done"

Be interseting in the coming days and weeks how this situation evolves (well i think anyhow)

Dickie10

Have we ever had a very warm /mild february with sun from which winter never recovered? like has spring ever come say 20th feb and taken hold from there, without serious rain and cold returning, i know from march 20th last year it seems winter lost its grip and was gone for good.

bosco12345

Dickie10 wrote: »

Have we ever had a very warm /mild february with sun from which winter never recovered? like has spring ever come say 20th feb and taken hold from there, without serious rain and cold returning, i know from march 20th last year it seems winter lost its grip and was gone for good.

We didn't have a winter last year

Arduach

Dickie10 wrote: »

Have we ever had a very warm /mild february with sun from which winter never recovered? like has spring ever come say 20th feb and taken hold from there, without serious rain and cold returning, i know from march 20th last year it seems winter lost its grip and was gone for good.

1998. But winter returned around April 10th when the Good Friday Agreement was signed it was snowing. Night temps around -5C and all the lush spring growth and vegetation was burnt brown temporarily.

JanuarySnowstor

You have to wonder after all these years of Internet model watching if there is a point??
I mean the max reliability seems to be 7/8 days
So what's the point we may aswell tune into Met Eireann once a night instead.
Anyway re the charts the trend remains for a subdued period of wintryness esp between Friday and Sunday

Billcarson

Tonight's gfs parallel run for what it's worth looks tasty in the far reaches of fi.