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Affordable EV (5k or less) with ranges of 300km or more?

  • 15-11-2020 11:45am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 7,239 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    When do we think we will reach a point when the 2nd hand ev market becomes affordable (5k or less) with ranges of 300km or more?

    I set these parameters as this would be when I buy an ev and I would love an ev as I do 25k kms a year at least.
    I’m driving a diesel at the minute which is probably worth 3k (Vauxhall insignia Sri 2011) but is working perfectly and has no debt on it, which is something I wouldn’t want to change by swapping over to an ev.


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Comments

  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 31,244 Mod ✭✭✭✭ dolanbaker


    tom1ie wrote: »
    When do we think we will reach a point when the 2nd hand ev market becomes affordable (5k or less) with ranges of 300km or more?

    I set these parameters as this would be when I buy an ev and I would love an ev as I do 25k kms a year at least.
    I’m driving a diesel at the minute which is probably worth 3k (Vauxhall insignia Sri 2011) but is working perfectly and has no debt on it, which is something I wouldn’t want to change by swapping over to an ev.
    I hope that the current range of EVs will be in that price bracket within the next 5 years, but, it may take longer as there will be many of us in a similar position who will be snapping them up when the prices drop down within our reach.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,197 ✭✭✭✭ KCross


    tom1ie wrote: »
    When do we think we will reach a point when the 2nd hand ev market becomes affordable (5k or less) with ranges of 300km or more?

    Crystal ball..... 7-10yrs... particularly if you are talking about real world range at speed and still getting that range as a secondhand car, not when the car was new.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,854 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    A 2019 Kona 64kWh for €5k? I'd say you're looking at 2030 at least.

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 31,271 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gumbo


    tom1ie wrote: »
    When do we think we will reach a point when the 2nd hand ev market becomes affordable (5k or less) with ranges of 300km or more?

    I set these parameters as this would be when I buy an ev and I would love an ev as I do 25k kms a year at least.
    I’m driving a diesel at the minute which is probably worth 3k (Vauxhall insignia Sri 2011) but is working perfectly and has no debt on it, which is something I wouldn’t want to change by swapping over to an ev.

    First you have to look at the EV’s that can do 300km.
    What price are the now. Work it backwards.

    Currently do that price, you can only get the very early Leaf, Fluence, which suggests values are holding strong.

    Tesla.
    Kona
    eNiro

    What others fall into the bracket?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,825 ✭✭✭ the_amazing_raisin


    unkel wrote: »
    A 2019 Kona 64kWh for €5k? I'd say you're looking at 2030 at least.

    Maybe, I think a lot depends on whether any hand on the sale of ICE cars comes in. If it does, then second hand EVs will be in high demand, so the price will stay high.

    If it doesn't, then it's subject to the same depreciation as any other car. You can get a 2012 Leaf for 6.5k at the moment, so if a Kona goes the same way then you're looking at 2026-27 for it to hit the 5k mark

    Of course, the battery warranty will be ending then, so that'll likely bring the price down further


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,239 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    Yeah that’s a pity. I’d say I’ll be getting another diesel within the 7 years then which is something I didn’t want to do.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,197 ✭✭✭✭ KCross


    You can get a 2012 Leaf for 6.5k at the moment, so if a Kona goes the same way then you're looking at 2026-27 for it to hit the 5k mark

    A 2012 Leaf was ~€26k new. A Kona is ~€40k so they won’t be the same price at all at the same age particularly when you consider the residual value and capacity of the battery in both of those cars.... 22kWh vs 64kWh!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,730 ✭✭✭ Dohvolle


    Looking at the PHEV end, the depreciation on an outlander tells its own story. New OTR just south of 50 grand, 2017 models now retailing for half that.
    Not as many features as the newer model, remote operation of charging/heaters etc, but still gets you on the ladder.
    Same goes for 2nd Gen Leaf. 171 30kwh available for €14k. Retailed new for €29k.
    50% depreciation in 3 years, by 2023, The same Note should be worth 7grand, and the Outlander 13 grand.
    Unless a green leaning government decides to incentivise the move away from ICE with some sort of scrappage scheme.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,854 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    Dohvolle wrote: »
    Same goes for 2nd Gen Leaf. 171 30kwh available for €14k. Retailed new for €29k.
    50% depreciation in 3 years

    That's the first generation Leaf. And it's the exception to the rule, the only EV that ever depreciated a lot. That's because when it was getting a few years old, there was very little demand for second hand EVs. Nobody wanted one. Things are very different now. Everybody knows they will own an EV soon

    Also I specced a brand new base model Leaf in 2016 with metallic paint and optional 6.6kW charger for €19k on the road. In 2017 you could get the top spec Tekna model for same

    There was probably only one fool in this country who actually paid 29k for a Leaf in 2017 :p

    I bought my Ioniq in January 2017 for €25k. Now, almost 4 years later, it is still worth about €18k

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Moderators Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭ Black_Knight


    It's there a high base price an EV can go to while having range (good battery)? Their battery will still be worth something for parts, though I guess batteries coming down in price etc will curb that.

    Kcross seems around the same as my thinking. 7-10 years. Kona etc are well over the 300km mentioned. Zoe will probably be the first, no?


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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,854 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    Zoe 40 already down to about €16k, but these were overpriced / heavily discounted when new

    It will only do 300km in summer at a very limited speed though, so doesn't really count. I think we are talking 300km at motorway speeds here (which Kona can do)

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,239 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    unkel wrote: »
    Zoe 40 already down to about €16k, but these were overpriced / heavily discounted when new

    It will only do 300km in summer at a very limited speed though, so doesn't really count. I think we are talking 300km at motorway speeds here (which Kona can do)

    Yep 300k at motorway speeds in winter would be absolute minimum.
    7years is a long bloody wait!!


  • Moderators Posts: 11,977 ✭✭✭✭ Black_Knight


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Yep 300k at motorway speeds in winter would be absolute minimum.
    7years is a long bloody wait!!

    Well only the new ones now are able to do that. Even some of the new ones can't... Mazda!

    300km on a motorway in winter is kinda the worst scenario for EV range.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,854 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    tom1ie wrote: »
    7years is a long bloody wait!!

    Make that 10 years.

    But why wait that long? Why do you need 300km in the one go? What's wrong with a quick stop to take a break and charge up? A 2016 Ioniq with a tiny 28kWh battery can do that trip with one stop of about 25 minutes to charge

    Obviously not great if you do that trip a few times a week, but who does? The savings of having an EV are tremendous. Very, very cheap to run, ultra reliable with near zero maintenance and zero emissions

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,239 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    unkel wrote: »
    Make that 10 years.

    But why wait that long? Why do you need 300km in the one go? What's wrong with a quick stop to take a break and charge up? A 2016 Ioniq with a tiny 28kWh battery can do that trip with one stop of about 25 minutes to charge

    Obviously not great if you do that trip a few times a week, but who does? The savings of having an EV are tremendous. Very, very cheap to run, ultra reliable with near zero maintenance and zero emissions

    I would do at least three trips of 300km round trip a week.
    It doesn’t make financial sense for me to change to an ev at the moment as my car has no debt on it.
    To get an ev I would need a loan.
    The monthly repayments would wipe out any fuel and tax savings.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,854 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    tom1ie wrote: »
    I would do at least three trips of 300km round trip a week.
    It doesn’t make financial sense for me to change to an ev at the moment as my car has no debt on it.
    To get an ev I would need a loan.
    The monthly repayments would wipe out any fuel and tax savings.

    Have you actually done the sums? For someone doing big miles, the savings are enormous

    And repayments are not costs. Interest on your finance is costs

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,239 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    unkel wrote: »
    Have you actually done the sums? For someone doing big miles, the savings are enormous

    And repayments are not costs. Interest on your finance is costs

    ?
    I pay diesel, tax and service costs on my car now.
    If I buy an ev that has the range (40k)
    I pay cheaper tax cheaper service cheaper fuel but €800 a month repayments that wipes out any savings.
    It would cost me more than what I have now.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,854 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    Repayments are not costs! They are outgoings, cash outflow. Depreciation and interest on your finance are costs.

    So you have to compare depreciation, interest, maintenance, fuel, tolls, tax (presuming insurance is about the same for either)

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,239 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    unkel wrote: »
    Repayments are not costs! They are outgoings, cash outflow. Depreciation and interest on your finance are costs.

    So you have to compare depreciation, interest, maintenance, fuel, tolls, tax (presuming insurance is about the same for either)

    Repayments are costs!
    If I pay €0 per month to the bank to own my car but then have to pay €800 per month to the bank to own my car how is that not a cost?
    That’s €800 I could be throwing off my mortgage!


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,854 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    The €800 is just an outgoing, it makes your ownership of the car worth €800 more :)

    Let's do some basic sums for you. Let's say you're a pauper and you don't have a cent to your name. Let's say your current car is a diesel banger worth nothing. So has zero depreciation. Let's say you do 60k km per year, motor tax on an EV is €120, on your banger €400. You buy a €16k Zoe with a loan over 5 years at 7% interest after which the car is worth €8k. Banger costs €1000 maintenance and tires per year, Zoe €200. Your diesel uses 6l /100km and the Zoe does 17kWh / 100km. 80% of your Zoe charging is at home at the night rate and 20% is at public chargers at 30c/kWh. Discount on tolls 500 for the Zoe. Total cost per year

    Banger: 1000 + 400 + (60000/100) * 6*1.20 = €5.7k

    Zoe: 1600 + (16000/2)*0.07 + 200 +120 + 0.80*(60000/100)*17*0.07 + 0.20*(60000/100)*17*0.30 -500 = €3.2k

    Or a saving of €2500 per year over owning a banger! Now there is some amount you can throw of your mortgage!

    Change the figures for your situation, this is just an example

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,239 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    unkel wrote: »
    The €800 is just an outgoing, it makes your ownership of the car worth €800 more :)

    Let's do some basic sums for you. Let's say you're a pauper and you don't have a cent to your name. Let's say your current car is a diesel banger worth nothing. So has zero depreciation. Let's say you do 60k km per year, motor tax on an EV is €120, on your banger €400. You buy a €16k Zoe with a loan over 5 years at 7% interest after which the car is worth €8k. Banger costs €1000 maintenance and tires per year, Zoe €200. Your diesel uses 6l /100km and the Zoe does 17kWh / 100km. 80% of your Zoe charging is at home at the night rate and 20% is at public chargers at 30c/kWh. Discount on tolls 500 for the Zoe. Total cost per year

    Banger: 1000 + 400 + (60000/100) * 6*1.20 = €5.7k

    Zoe: 1600 + (16000/2)*0.07 + 200 +120 + 0.80*(60000/100)*17*0.07 + 0.20*(60000/100)*17*0.30 -500 = €3.2k

    Or a saving of €2500 per year over owning a banger! Now there is some amount you can throw of your mortgage!

    Change the figures for your situation, this is just an example

    Why have you divided the 16000 loan by 2?
    How much is the Zoe costing me a month on loan repayments only?


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 12,573 Mod ✭✭✭✭ AndyBoBandy


    I've driven my EV 15,000km since getting it, and have put about €115 of my own money (home charging) into it in that time.

    In my BMW 320d, that same 15,000km would have cost me around €1,250 in diesel (assuming €1.20 per litre), and by now would also be due an oil change (which I do myself, but still costs around €45 in oil & oil filter).

    So the cost of driving an EV for that 15,000km is 8.9% of the cost of doing the same milage in my diesel BMW. (and thats before we even talk about the tax (€710 in the BMW compared to €120 in the EV)).


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,239 ✭✭✭ tom1ie


    I've driven my EV 15,000km since getting it, and have put about €115 of my own money (home charging) into it in that time.

    In my BMW 320d, that same 15,000km would have cost me around €1,250 in diesel (assuming €1.20 per litre), and by now would also be due an oil change (which I do myself, but still costs around €45 in oil & oil filter).

    So the cost of driving an EV for that 15,000km is 8.9% of the cost of doing the same milage in my diesel BMW. (and thats before we even talk about the tax (€710 in the BMW compared to €120 in the EV)).

    Agreed but I’m not arguing this at all I know an ev is cheaper to run.
    But for me to get an ev I have to take out a loan.
    To get the ev I need that loan is 40k and costs 800 per month in repayments.
    The repayments on my insignia are zero at the moment.
    Therefore any savings I make on the ev are wiped out by the 800 pm cost of the loan.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,834 ✭✭✭ garo


    So wait a few years. Not the 7-10 that it will take for an EV to be sub 5k. EVs start to make financial sense for you at around 15k I think. Or think of a PCP. An EV would save you 1500 per annum conservatively. Run the current diesel until it becomes uneconomic to repair it and then switch to an EV. You would be spending money on a car then anyway so do the sums then.


    It does not make economic sense to wait until an EV with your desired range is sub 5k because you are ignoring the 1500 you save every year. In 3 years you'd be better off with a 9k EV than a 5k diesel.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,854 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Why have you divided the 16000 loan by 2?

    You take out a loan of 16000 and you pay that back over 5 years in full. At the start 16000 is outstanding, at the end 0. On average 8000 (or 16000/2) over which you pay interest
    tom1ie wrote: »
    Why have you divided the 16000 loan by 2?
    How much is the Zoe costing me a month on loan repayments only?

    You pay 7% * 8000 = 560 interest per year

    Your repayment are 16000 / 5 per year = 3200 per year

    So overall you pay out (3200 repayments - 2500 cost savings) / 52 = €13 per week more than with your banger, but remember after the 5 years you own the car worth 8k, so you could sell it and pay a large chunk off your mortgage :cool:

    Now of course these figures might not be exact for you, you need to change them for your needs. Perhaps you pay more for finance, perhaps less. You might have work charging, you might take out a loan over 3 years instead of 5 years, etc.

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Posts: 17,733 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    unkel wrote: »
    The €800 is just an outgoing, it makes your ownership of the car worth €800 more :)

    Let's do some basic sums for you. Let's say you're a pauper and you don't have a cent to your name. Let's say your current car is a diesel banger worth nothing. So has zero depreciation. Let's say you do 60k km per year, motor tax on an EV is €120, on your banger €400. You buy a €16k Zoe with a loan over 5 years at 7% interest after which the car is worth €8k. Banger costs €1000 maintenance and tires per year, Zoe €200. Your diesel uses 6l /100km and the Zoe does 17kWh / 100km. 80% of your Zoe charging is at home at the night rate and 20% is at public chargers at 30c/kWh. Discount on tolls 500 for the Zoe. Total cost per year

    Banger: 1000 + 400 + (60000/100) * 6*1.20 = €5.7k

    Zoe: 1600 + (16000/2)*0.07 + 200 +120 + 0.80*(60000/100)*17*0.07 + 0.20*(60000/100)*17*0.30 -500 = €3.2k

    Or a saving of €2500 per year over owning a banger! Now there is some amount you can throw of your mortgage!

    Change the figures for your situation, this is just an example


    Seriously patronising 'Let's do some basic sums for you'.

    Private individuals aren't businesses.... If you finance a car the payment needs to be paid... Call it a cost or an outgoing .... It still needs to be paid.


  • Posts: 17,733 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    tom1ie wrote: »
    Agreed but I’m not arguing this at all I know an ev is cheaper to run.
    But for me to get an ev I have to take out a loan.
    To get the ev I need that loan is 40k and costs 800 per month in repayments.
    The repayments on my insignia are zero at the moment.
    Therefore any savings I make on the ev are wiped out by the 800 pm cost of the loan.


    It's not a cost so don't worry about it :pac:


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 58,854 CMod ✭✭✭✭ unkel


    Augeo wrote: »
    Seriously patronising

    I was trying to help tom1ie out. A lot of people in Ireland make poor decisions in their lives because they do not understand some basic finance. With his huge annual mileage, he would be much better off financially in an EV, even if that meant having to finance it.

    If that sounds patronising, so be it, I don't really care. If it helps tom1ie or someone else, I'd be very happy.

    "Wind is Ireland's oil" - An Taoiseach, 25/05/2022



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,177 ✭✭✭ Kramer


    unkel wrote: »
    The savings of having an EV are tremendous. Very, very cheap to run, ultra reliable with near zero maintenance and zero emissions

    How many times has your very recently acquired Tesla been in for repair now?
    Isn't the €20k battery now kaputt too?

    :P.

    Zero emissions is green BS too. Emissions in manufacture, energy consumption & use. Yes, far less than ICE, but nowhere near zero.

    Your Model S will now be using even more resources as the battery is arguably the most resource intensive component in an EV.

    It'll be recycled............yadda.....yada.......yadda.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,177 ✭✭✭ Kramer


    unkel wrote: »
    I was trying to help tom1ie out.

    With leprechaun economics :pac:.

    A Zoe for €16k, still worth €8k after 5 years & 300,000km
    ? You'd recommend a Zoe for that use?

    I wouldn't.

    Even a 64kWh Kona after 300,000km would likely be down to 70% capacity by then, if running at all. Totally out of warranty at that stage of course, for probably a good 150,000km.

    We accumulated 50,000km on a new Ioniq in about a year, (100,000km electric kms now in approaching 2 years) so I'm well aware of the savings in running costs of EVs, but 300,000km in a €16k Zoe is crazy talk :P.


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