And the winner of dreamer of the year is...

893bet

unkel wrote: »

Speedmaster for €5k second hand. Are they really creeping up to that now or is this well and truly in dreamer territory?

Linky

It’s the sandwich version so dearer than the standard.

Most of the one on C24 are brand new.

But 4K is the value at a push IMHO.

thelizardking1

unkel wrote: »

Ha! Thanks for the update. Just had a quick look and the moonwatches start at about €3k up there, but I must not be comparing like with like then? Also I thought the hesalite versions are generally more desirable and would keep their value better than the sapphire, or at least they are worth roughly the same second hand?

Yeah that's it, you're not comparing like with like!

The hesalite, solid caseback models are indeed less expensive and much more common.

The sapphire sandwich was more expensive than the hesalite new and also fetch more than €5k used.

I've owned pretty much every iteration of the moonwatch and the sapphire sandwich is the nicest in my opinion. It doesn't feel cheap in the way the hesalite version does.

thelizardking1

893bet wrote: »

It’s the sandwich version so dearer than the standard.

Most of the one on C24 are brand new.

But 4K is the value at a push IMHO.

There's nothing new on C24 under €5.5k

€4K is what you would be willing to pay for it! It's definitely not the market value.

I sold a 4 year old big box, hesalite version to a guy in Germany a few months ago for just under €4k.

scwazrh

€4K for hesalite so €5k for sapphire and take anything above €4500 on adverts would seem about right . That said the price of speedies have been long debated here and the topic always seem to end with sure you’ll be selling it again soon enough.

thelizardking1

scwazrh wrote: »

€4K for hesalite so €5k for sapphire and take anything above €4500 on adverts would seem about right . That said the price of speedies have been long debated here and the topic always seem to end with sure you’ll be selling it again soon enough.

That's it exactly!

The prices of these are creeping up all the time as well so it's no harm if you're the type that likes to flip it a few months or years down the road. You definitely won't lose money on them anyway.

893bet

thelizardking1 wrote: »

There's nothing new on C24 under €5.5k

€4K is what you would be willing to pay for it! It's definitely not the market value.

I sold a 4 year old big box, hesalite version to a guy in Germany a few months ago for just under €4k.

Brand new for 5.6 on there. Take off the platform fee and you get close to 5k brand new with full warranty verses yours at 6 years old for 5k, or 4.5k.....looks expensive.

Hell at 4 k it’s expensive as far as I can see. These are readily available so for me there needs to be a bigger gap between new/second hand.

thelizardking1

893bet wrote: »

Hell at 4 k it’s expensive as far as I can see.

That's your opinion, but that doesn't change the fact that the actual market value is circa €5k.

In my opinion €12k is too much money for a sub, but that's the price they are!

893bet

C24 is a blunt over priced tool

It’s blunt as it merges used prices and brand new prices. It’s blunt as it merges Dealer prices and private seller prices.

As a private seller of a used watch with no warranty you are the bottom of the market.

It’s overpriced as there is a 6.5 percent platform fee and it’s mostly dealers on there who by their nature are more expensive as they have overheads/warranties etc.

It’s now so easy to research watch prices that private sellers think the sell trade price is close to the sell private price.

I enjoy looking at my 5167 graph. I take it with a minus 20 percent sized pinch of salt.

scwazrh

893bet wrote: »

C24 is a blunt over priced tool

It’s blunt as it merges used prices and brand new prices. It’s blunt as it merges Dealer prices and private seller prices.

As a private seller of a used watch with no warranty you are the bottom of the market.

It’s overpriced as there is a 6.5 percent platform fee and it’s mostly dealers on there who by their nature are more expensive as they have overheads/warranties etc.

It’s now so easy to research watch prices that private sellers think the sell trade price is close to the sell private price.

I enjoy looking at my 5167 graph. I take it with a minus 20 percent sized pinch of salt.

It’s only overpriced if there’s other ones cheaper . Let’s say I want to buy a full set big box sapphire speedie. Do you know of one that can be bought now , not a wait a wait around & see watches of Monaco job , but actually available now for between €4500 &€5k

thelizardking1

893bet wrote: »

C24 is a blunt over priced tool.

Absolutey, but most people look at C24 as a good measure of what something is worth.

If I can sell a Hesalite Speedy for close to 4k I can sell a Sapphire sandwich for €4.5k+

Your valuation is irrelvant. The market has already decided what it is worth.

893bet

I see a brand new on on C24 for 5300 or so. With a 5 year warranty.

So if someone wants to “save” 300 or 800 for an old out of warranty one then yeah. Bargain.

thelizardking1

893bet wrote: »

I see a brand new on on C24 for 5300 or so. With a 5 year warranty.

So if someone wants to “save” 300 or 800 for an old out of warranty one then yeah. Bargain.

You're just making up numbers now to suit your narrative.

The cheapest unworn 311.30.42.30.01.006's (in the EU) are either €5,600 from a private seller in Spain or €5,625 from a dealer in Austria and the price is fixed. So you're not saving "300 or 800". And even at that, there's a big difference between 300 and 800!

I think most people would rather pay €4,500 for a mint used Speedy than €5,600 for a new one.

If anyone from boards is interested in the Speedy give me a shout and we'll work out a good price. I might knock "300 or 800" off the price for you;)

893bet

thelizardking1 wrote: »

You're just making up numbers now to suit your narrative.

The cheapest unworn 311.30.42.30.01.006's (in the EU) are either €5,600 from a private seller in Spain or €5,625 from a dealer in Austria and the price is fixed. So you're not saving "300 or 800". And even at that, there's a big difference between 300 and 800!

I think most people would rather pay €4,500 for a mint used Speedy than €5,600 for a new one.

If anyone from boards is interested in the Speedy give me a shout and we'll work out a good price. I might knock "300 or 800" off the price for you;)

Any dealer would be happy to deal away from c24 and save the 350 quid fee to make the sale. If you are giving an 800 discount then you are much closer to my valuation really.

thelizardking1

893bet wrote: »

Any dealer would be happy to deal away from c24

Christ! You've clearly never bought a watch from a reputable dealer on C24. You have a lot to learn.

Good night and god bless.

893bet

Dropped 16k last year on a watch from c24.

They took 1700 off when I went direct and paid via BT.

When you do the “you have a lot to learn” in a condescending way it doesn’t further your argument.

Fitz II

To be fair I have dealt with a number of chrono sellers who have their own eBay shop or bricks and mortar store and always managed 6 - 10% off chrono. Mind you always on non Rolex , they never have the room on those.

If you want to know the value of a watch then sell it to watchfinder, it's a sobering experience and shows the gulf between asking prices and selling prices from dealers.

unkel

Fitz II wrote: »

If you want to know the value of a watch then sell it to watchfinder

That's not really the "value" of the watch though? It's the lowest possible valuation. A bit like trading in your car with Tesla. They don't want to know and they'll give you a brutal quote, often 30-40% below what other dealers offer

thelizardking1

893bet wrote: »

Dropped 16k last year on a watch from c24.

Oh boy! That sentence there tells me all I need to know about you.

893bet

thelizardking1 wrote: »

Oh boy! That sentence there tells me all I need to know about you.

Why? Cos I used the word “dropped”.

What does that tell you?

I will refer to my previous post again as it seems apt

893bet wrote: »

in a condescending way it doesn’t further your argument.

unkel

Interesting discussion though, one thing frightens me a bit. The consensus on the forum a bit over a year ago was that these moonwatches weren't really going anywhere. The value back then of both hesalite and sapphire in a private sale here in Ireland were firmly under the €3k mark. Even if we'd be more conservative than even 893bet above and say the watch will fetch €3750, that's a huge increase in a year.

Perhaps Omega are succeeding after all then in their strategy of substantially upping their retail prices year on year to drag the value of all their watches up (towards Rolex levels)?

scwazrh

unkel wrote: »

Interesting discussion though, one thing frightens me a bit. The consensus on the forum a bit over a year ago was that these moonwatches weren't really going anywhere. The value back then of both hesalite and sapphire in a private sale here in Ireland were firmly under the €3k mark. Even if we'd be more conservative than even 893bet above and say the watch will fetch €3750, that's a huge increase in a year.

Perhaps Omega are succeeding after all then in their strategy of substantially upping their retail prices year on year to drag the value of all their watches up (towards Rolex levels)?

Nah I reckon it’s the COVID effect .Watches have exploded and anyone with even a slight interest in watches pre COVID now has the time to be looking at pretty pics of watches online . Add to it that anyone still earning can’t go anywhere to spend money and all of sudden anything under €10 k is very affordable.
Might be a different story next year when the weekly shopping trips and couple of holidays are on again. Spare cash will be spent somewhere else

unkel

You could be right there. There seemed to be the COVID effect alright last year. With the likes of the moonwatches being the more recognisable and affordable entry into luxury watches (like the seamasters), so they went up relatively more than most others? Like you say a lot of lads found themselves with several grand of spare money not going on holidays / nights out and more time on their hands for online browsing and shopping

Wibbs

scwazrh wrote: »

Nah I reckon it’s the COVID effect .Watches have exploded and anyone with even a slight interest in watches pre COVID now has the time to be looking at pretty pics of watches online . Add to it that anyone still earning can’t go anywhere to spend money and all of sudden anything under €10 k is very affordable.
Might be a different story next year when the weekly shopping trips and couple of holidays are on again. Spare cash will be spent somewhere else

Yup. It's a strong trend across all sorts of collectables; antiques, art, classic cars and the like have gone nuts in "values" over the last 18 months. The pandemic, concerns about the usual investment routes, money making feck all in the bank etc. Your say ten grand invested in watches, classic cars etc two years ago would return gains significantly more than if it had been stuck in a bank, or most of the usual investment avenues.

Another difference with this trend is that it's not for the most part based on credit. So the classic car value rises have been fuelled by spare (pandemic)cash rather than like in the 80's/90's where it was mostly credit. Same for watches. I personally see a lot of the traits of a bubble going on, save for that credit/cash thing. It seems more sustainable, or rather less likely to burst overnight, but soften. If people who feel they missed out start trying to buy in on credit, that would be the bad sign IMHO. Though like you say post pandemic we might see an offloading of pandemic assets which could wobble things. That said post pandemic could well see recession, even depression which would further push the vlaues of such assets. Who knows?

893bet

unkel wrote: »

Interesting discussion though, one thing frightens me a bit. The consensus on the forum a bit over a year ago was that these moonwatches weren't really going anywhere. The value back then of both hesalite and sapphire in a private sale here in Ireland were firmly under the €3k mark. Even if we'd be more conservative than even 893bet above and say the watch will fetch €3750, that's a huge increase in a year.

Perhaps Omega are succeeding after all then in their strategy of substantially upping their retail prices year on year to drag the value of all their watches up (towards Rolex levels)?

There were loads of sales around COVID for the speedmaster with 20 percent off. Brand new was readily available for 3300-3500 or even less as unlike Rolex the AD could do online sales with them.

Logically that should have decimated the second hand market. It certainly didn’t as there is money sloshing around.

We all benefit from rising prices but it’s terrible overall. It’s great that I have watches that have increased from anywhere from 25% to 200% (taking c24 valuations...).

But what good is it really when the watch I want to buy was 8k and now it’s 15k.

Birneybau

thelizardking1 wrote: »

Oh boy! That sentence there tells me all I need to know about you.

Bit unfair.

scwazrh

893bet wrote: »

But what good is it really when the watch I want to buy was 8k and now it’s 15k.

At the start of May I spoke to pride & pinion about a new submariner , advertised price then was €12k, Went back to them at start of June , advertised price had gone up €240 ..in a month ..They said Rolex prices are going up by the week

Wibbs

scwazrh wrote: »

They said Rolex prices are going up by the week

That rapid an increase is more of a concern on the "bubble" front IMHO. It sniffs of panic buying in the market.

893bet

Wibbs wrote: »

That rapid an increase is more of a concern on the "bubble" front IMHO. It sniffs of panic buying in the market.

Fuelled by YouTube. The “buy today as it will cost you more tomorrow”.

It can’t continue but.....it’s going on a long time now....

A level off is and slight correction and then stagnation I think is more likely than a massive drop.

unkel

scwazrh wrote: »

At the start of May I spoke to pride & pinion about a new submariner , advertised price then was €12k

Their prices seem VERY optimistic. Some of you have bought there. I presume there is a good bit of scope for negotiation if you have no trade-ins?

banie01

scwazrh wrote: »

Nah I reckon it’s the COVID effect .Watches have exploded and anyone with even a slight interest in watches pre COVID now has the time to be looking at pretty pics of watches online . Add to it that anyone still earning can’t go anywhere to spend money and all of sudden anything under €10 k is very affordable.
Might be a different story next year when the weekly shopping trips and couple of holidays are on again. Spare cash will be spent somewhere else

I think this has a lot to do with it.
TBH that allow illustrates the potential for inflation across all markets from essentials to houses come a fuller unlocking.

There is money waiting to be spent that will follow a herd rather than a rational market.
In the broader sweep of things, I think inflationary pressures are starting to ramp up and the tools to deal with them at this point?
Are exhausted.

On the price of a speedie?
I think the market will decide the price, but my rule of thumb for Chrono24 prices is always to knock 20% to get the private sale range.
I also tend to take a look thru r/watchexchange and watchrecon for the asking/sale prices.

I think Omega are making a concerted and deliberate effort to mirror Rolex pricing while leveraging both availability and history to corner a bigger market.

Fair enough, but when you are approaching Rolex pricing and also exceeding other mainstream luxury brands with similar quality?
It's IMO a dangerous tactic, Tudor and by extension Rolex will be rubbing their hands IMO.