And the winner of dreamer of the year is...

dakar · 20-04-2021 9:50am

Buy this highly desirable, versatile, discontinued and never to be repeated 39mm watch.

Reason for selling: I want the 36mm version...

Fitz II · 20-04-2021 9:56am

Ah discontinued like the 36mm was discontinued and the Batman...oh wait they are back.

Time · 20-04-2021 10:36am

Fitz II wrote: »

Ah discontinued like the 36mm was discontinued and the Batman...oh wait they are back.

You've just figured out Rolexes super secret sales strategy.

1)Discontinue to drive up demand
2)Introduce new model thats slightly bigger/has a different bracelet/new colour/insert other change here
3)Discontinue the new one
4)Re-release the old one.
5)Repeat

Wibbs · 20-04-2021 10:38am

Clearly working for them too, at least at the moment what with the attention focused on the brand.

banie01 · 20-04-2021 10:49am

Time wrote: »

You've just figured out Rolexes super secret sales strategy.

1)Discontinue to drive up demand
2)Introduce new model thats slightly bigger/has a different bracelet/new colour/insert other change here
3)Discontinue the new one
4)Re-release the old one.
5)Repeat

Saves a fortune on tooling costs too

Doubly efficient!

893bet · 20-04-2021 11:01am

Watch makers have a tough task really as there is a pressure to release new stuff constantly. Like the update to the IPhone which are disposable items there is almost the expiration for watches to be constantly updated, on a seasonal basis...like fashion items....green is the new blue for example.

1) It is hard to come up with “new” designs without ploughing old ground.

2) if you change the design too much you get lambasted for too much change and moving from core values etc (See omega, see Colour chart OPs).

3) if you change too little you are just riding the customer and making a change for the sake of it (see explorer 2)

unkel · 20-04-2021 11:05am

Time wrote: »

You've just figured out Rolexes super secret sales strategy.

1)Discontinue to drive up demand
2)Introduce new model thats slightly bigger/has a different bracelet/new colour/insert other change here
3)Discontinue the new one
4)Re-release the old one.
5)Repeat

I don't really get it though. Rolex only ever gets their part of the RRP (minus taxes and minus AD margin). Apart from keeping the brand ultra desirable in the long term, there is nothing in it for them when one of their watches is hard to get new or second hand

Grey dealers and ADs benefit of course and any private owner who bought the watch earlier in the price trend up

scwazrh · 20-04-2021 11:13am

unkel wrote: »

I don't really get it though. Rolex only ever gets their part of the RRP (minus taxes and minus AD margin). Apart from keeping the brand ultra desirable in the long term, there is nothing in it for them when one of their watches is hard to get new or second hand

Grey dealers and ADs benefit of course and any private owner who bought the watch earlier in the price trend up

I don’t understand why Rolex don’t increase their price and produce more watches . I’m not saying flood the market but a healthy 3-6 month wait would surely be better than the current issues with greys and watch flippers .

mailforkev · 20-04-2021 12:39pm

The problem is not just production numbers, it’s the sales channels. Just searched Chrono for Rolex, New, 2020-2021. Got 11,173 results. That’s just one (admittedly large) website.
So there are plenty of new watches out there to buy, they’re just not available in the ADs at RRP to those who want them.

Cyrus · 20-04-2021 12:48pm

mailforkev wrote: »

The problem is not just production numbers, it’s the sales channels. Just searched Chrono for Rolex, New, 2020-2021. Got 11,173 results. That’s just one (admittedly large) website.
So there are plenty of new watches out there to buy, they’re just not available in the ADs at RRP to those who want them.

yep, watchfinder (a richemont co) have more rolex than anything else, and thats just whats advertised. I have no doubt they have copious stocks of daytonas, hulks etc etc

Wibbs · 20-04-2021 1:10pm

The market is doing a DeBeers in a way, though as Unk notes it's not directly driven by Rolex as far as their profits go. It's the dealers and AD's that are minting Rolex's throttling of supply. Maybe their next move on the back of the feeding frenzy is to up their prices and up their production, so they can get more of the profit pie? Though that's a move fraught with the danger of buyers seeing through that. They're around for a century and throughout that have been extremely clever when it came to reading the market, so I suspect they won't do that. They know that the current trend could be delicate enough, so better they stay stable enough on prices, keep production controlled and ride it out. If/when the market softens the ones who will lose will be the grey dealers and flippers, not them.

Time · 20-04-2021 1:18pm

unkel wrote: »

I don't really get it though. Rolex only ever gets their part of the RRP (minus taxes and minus AD margin). Apart from keeping the brand ultra desirable in the long term, there is nothing in it for them when one of their watches is hard to get new or second hand

Grey dealers and ADs benefit of course and any private owner who bought the watch earlier in the price trend up

Of course there is, it becomes a more desired luxury item. It's phenomenally difficult to create a luxury brand, and even harder to create one that is the most desired. The benefit to them is that they can continue to grow at a pace they dictate because they know they'll sell everything they produce.

unkel · 20-04-2021 1:30pm

I'm sure Rolex understand the market better than us, a bunch of posters on an internet forum

Still, a sneaky 4-5% price increase across the range twice a year would up their margins tremendously without causing much of a stir, one would have thought.

Rootsblower · 20-04-2021 2:16pm

I know a guy who works for Siemens and is fairly high up in the Irish arm of the company. He told me the aim of the company is to have a consistent growth rate of 2-3% per annum. Nothing spectacular but a solid and consistent return on investment. Rolex seem to follow this approach as do a lot of the Germanic powerhouse companies eg Volkswagen, BASF etc. Slow and steady wins the race seems to be the mantra.

Rolex have no shareholders to answer to so the need to post maximum profit and redistribute it in the form of dividends and/or share buybacks each year(even if it’s detrimental to long term strategy) doesn’t seem to be a priority. They seem to be happy to sell 100% of their output each year at their chosen margin. They can dictate what they like to the AD’s cos for the last 5 years it’s been a cash cow for AD’s. AD’s can now sell even the traditionally undesirable models easily enough with the promise of access to the “good stuff” and plenty will lap it up.

As for that Explorer for €11200, that’s just bats**t crazy. Then again some of those horrendous coloured dial OP’s are selling for over double retail.

Madness all of it.

2shea · 22-04-2021 2:42am

Can't a man dream!!

I'll do 11 cash

:D

Fitz II · 02-06-2021 3:12pm

OK i could be way off here but a non fluted black Dial datejust on oyster with a rrp of 7400 for 10,500 . Is this dreamer of am I out of touch on these https://www.adverts.ie/casual/rolex-datejust-41mm-2021/23983434

Cyrus · 02-06-2021 4:14pm

Fitz II wrote: »

OK i could be way off here but a non fluted black Dial datejust on oyster with a rrp of 7400 for 10,500 . Is this dreamer of am I out of touch on these https://www.adverts.ie/casual/rolex-datejust-41mm-2021/23983434

10.5k for a non fluted DJ???

not a hope.

Cyclingtourist · 02-06-2021 4:21pm

Fitz II wrote: »

OK i could be way off here but a non fluted black Dial datejust on oyster with a rrp of 7400 for 10,500 . Is this dreamer of am I out of touch on these https://www.adverts.ie/casual/rolex-datejust-41mm-2021/23983434

Well he does say it's an "unbelievable price".

Cyrus · 02-06-2021 4:24pm

Cyclingtourist wrote: »

Well he does say it's an "unbelievable price".

unbelievable piece i think

at an unbelievable price.

Cyclingtourist · 02-06-2021 4:28pm

Cyrus wrote: »

unbelievable piece i think

at an unbelievable price.

Yeah you're right 'piece'. What's the believable price, €8K ?

Cyrus · 02-06-2021 4:40pm

Cyclingtourist wrote: »

Yeah you're right 'piece'. What's the believable price, €8K ?

i guess, a small premium on retail

id put it to you this way, if i walked into weirs and said you can have this at retail, i wouldnt take it as im not sure id find a sucker to pay over retail for it (its not a watch id buy to wear)

PatrickDoherty · 06-06-2021 5:23pm

https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/volkswagen-passat-cc-2-0-tdi-gt-bmt-140ps-4dr/28174518

19K For a 6 year old cc passat, hilarious.

NIMAN · 06-06-2021 5:26pm

Does it come with a free watch?

banie01 · 06-06-2021 6:00pm

PatrickDoherty wrote: »

https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/volkswagen-passat-cc-2-0-tdi-gt-bmt-140ps-4dr/28174518

19K For a 6 year old cc passat, hilarious.

Tis mad money, but tis no watch?
Unless that's what he's pricing the car clock at?

Think ou meant this for the motors dream thread.

Wibbs · 06-06-2021 6:39pm

banie01 wrote: »

Think ou meant this for the motors dream thread.

That's a classic thread.

Ryath · 06-06-2021 9:32pm

NIMAN wrote: »

Does it come with a free watch?

It actually does! One of the few that still has an analogue clock.

PatrickDoherty · 07-06-2021 4:00am

Hahahaha only copped now its in the watch forum my bad.. still folks what a dreamer

unkel · 05-07-2021 12:47pm

Speedmaster for €5k second hand. Are they really creeping up to that now or is this well and truly in dreamer territory?

Linky

thelizardking1 · 05-07-2021 12:48pm

unkel wrote: »

Speedmaster for €5k second hand. Are they really creeping up to that now or is this well and truly in dreamer territory?

Linky

As I mention in the Ad, it's cheaper than anything on Chrono24!

unkel · 05-07-2021 12:52pm

Ha! Thanks for the update. Just had a quick look and the moonwatches start at about €3k up there, but I must not be comparing like with like then? Also I thought the hesalite versions are generally more desirable and would keep their value better than the sapphire, or at least they are worth roughly the same second hand?

893bet · 05-07-2021 12:53pm

unkel wrote: »

Speedmaster for €5k second hand. Are they really creeping up to that now or is this well and truly in dreamer territory?

Linky

It’s the sandwich version so dearer than the standard.

Most of the one on C24 are brand new.

But 4K is the value at a push IMHO.

thelizardking1 · 05-07-2021 12:57pm

unkel wrote: »

Ha! Thanks for the update. Just had a quick look and the moonwatches start at about €3k up there, but I must not be comparing like with like then? Also I thought the hesalite versions are generally more desirable and would keep their value better than the sapphire, or at least they are worth roughly the same second hand?

Yeah that's it, you're not comparing like with like!

The hesalite, solid caseback models are indeed less expensive and much more common.

The sapphire sandwich was more expensive than the hesalite new and also fetch more than €5k used.

I've owned pretty much every iteration of the moonwatch and the sapphire sandwich is the nicest in my opinion. It doesn't feel cheap in the way the hesalite version does.

thelizardking1 · 05-07-2021 1:02pm

893bet wrote: »

It’s the sandwich version so dearer than the standard.

Most of the one on C24 are brand new.

But 4K is the value at a push IMHO.

There's nothing new on C24 under €5.5k

€4K is what you would be willing to pay for it! It's definitely not the market value.

I sold a 4 year old big box, hesalite version to a guy in Germany a few months ago for just under €4k.

scwazrh · 05-07-2021 1:51pm

€4K for hesalite so €5k for sapphire and take anything above €4500 on adverts would seem about right . That said the price of speedies have been long debated here and the topic always seem to end with sure you’ll be selling it again soon enough.

thelizardking1 · 05-07-2021 2:09pm

scwazrh wrote: »

€4K for hesalite so €5k for sapphire and take anything above €4500 on adverts would seem about right . That said the price of speedies have been long debated here and the topic always seem to end with sure you’ll be selling it again soon enough.

That's it exactly!

The prices of these are creeping up all the time as well so it's no harm if you're the type that likes to flip it a few months or years down the road. You definitely won't lose money on them anyway.

893bet · 05-07-2021 5:53pm

thelizardking1 wrote: »

There's nothing new on C24 under €5.5k

€4K is what you would be willing to pay for it! It's definitely not the market value.

I sold a 4 year old big box, hesalite version to a guy in Germany a few months ago for just under €4k.

Brand new for 5.6 on there. Take off the platform fee and you get close to 5k brand new with full warranty verses yours at 6 years old for 5k, or 4.5k.....looks expensive.

Hell at 4 k it’s expensive as far as I can see. These are readily available so for me there needs to be a bigger gap between new/second hand.

thelizardking1 · 05-07-2021 6:42pm

893bet wrote: »

Hell at 4 k it’s expensive as far as I can see.

That's your opinion, but that doesn't change the fact that the actual market value is circa €5k.

In my opinion €12k is too much money for a sub, but that's the price they are!

893bet · 05-07-2021 6:52pm

C24 is a blunt over priced tool

It’s blunt as it merges used prices and brand new prices. It’s blunt as it merges Dealer prices and private seller prices.

As a private seller of a used watch with no warranty you are the bottom of the market.

It’s overpriced as there is a 6.5 percent platform fee and it’s mostly dealers on there who by their nature are more expensive as they have overheads/warranties etc.

It’s now so easy to research watch prices that private sellers think the sell trade price is close to the sell private price.

I enjoy looking at my 5167 graph. I take it with a minus 20 percent sized pinch of salt.

scwazrh · 05-07-2021 7:05pm

893bet wrote: »

C24 is a blunt over priced tool

It’s blunt as it merges used prices and brand new prices. It’s blunt as it merges Dealer prices and private seller prices.

As a private seller of a used watch with no warranty you are the bottom of the market.

It’s overpriced as there is a 6.5 percent platform fee and it’s mostly dealers on there who by their nature are more expensive as they have overheads/warranties etc.

It’s now so easy to research watch prices that private sellers think the sell trade price is close to the sell private price.

I enjoy looking at my 5167 graph. I take it with a minus 20 percent sized pinch of salt.

It’s only overpriced if there’s other ones cheaper . Let’s say I want to buy a full set big box sapphire speedie. Do you know of one that can be bought now , not a wait a wait around & see watches of Monaco job , but actually available now for between €4500 &€5k

thelizardking1 · 05-07-2021 7:12pm

893bet wrote: »

C24 is a blunt over priced tool.

Absolutey, but most people look at C24 as a good measure of what something is worth.

If I can sell a Hesalite Speedy for close to 4k I can sell a Sapphire sandwich for €4.5k+

Your valuation is irrelvant. The market has already decided what it is worth.

893bet · 05-07-2021 7:16pm

I see a brand new on on C24 for 5300 or so. With a 5 year warranty.

So if someone wants to “save” 300 or 800 for an old out of warranty one then yeah. Bargain.

thelizardking1 · 05-07-2021 7:36pm

893bet wrote: »

I see a brand new on on C24 for 5300 or so. With a 5 year warranty.

So if someone wants to “save” 300 or 800 for an old out of warranty one then yeah. Bargain.

You're just making up numbers now to suit your narrative.

The cheapest unworn 311.30.42.30.01.006's (in the EU) are either €5,600 from a private seller in Spain or €5,625 from a dealer in Austria and the price is fixed. So you're not saving "300 or 800". And even at that, there's a big difference between 300 and 800!

I think most people would rather pay €4,500 for a mint used Speedy than €5,600 for a new one.

If anyone from boards is interested in the Speedy give me a shout and we'll work out a good price. I might knock "300 or 800" off the price for you;)

893bet · 05-07-2021 8:38pm

thelizardking1 wrote: »

You're just making up numbers now to suit your narrative.

The cheapest unworn 311.30.42.30.01.006's (in the EU) are either €5,600 from a private seller in Spain or €5,625 from a dealer in Austria and the price is fixed. So you're not saving "300 or 800". And even at that, there's a big difference between 300 and 800!

I think most people would rather pay €4,500 for a mint used Speedy than €5,600 for a new one.

If anyone from boards is interested in the Speedy give me a shout and we'll work out a good price. I might knock "300 or 800" off the price for you;)

Any dealer would be happy to deal away from c24 and save the 350 quid fee to make the sale. If you are giving an 800 discount then you are much closer to my valuation really.

thelizardking1 · 05-07-2021 9:21pm

893bet wrote: »

Any dealer would be happy to deal away from c24

Christ! You've clearly never bought a watch from a reputable dealer on C24. You have a lot to learn.

Good night and god bless.

893bet · 05-07-2021 9:30pm

Dropped 16k last year on a watch from c24.

They took 1700 off when I went direct and paid via BT.

When you do the “you have a lot to learn” in a condescending way it doesn’t further your argument.

Fitz II · 05-07-2021 10:40pm

To be fair I have dealt with a number of chrono sellers who have their own eBay shop or bricks and mortar store and always managed 6 - 10% off chrono. Mind you always on non Rolex , they never have the room on those.

If you want to know the value of a watch then sell it to watchfinder, it's a sobering experience and shows the gulf between asking prices and selling prices from dealers.

unkel · 05-07-2021 11:31pm

Fitz II wrote: »

If you want to know the value of a watch then sell it to watchfinder

That's not really the "value" of the watch though? It's the lowest possible valuation. A bit like trading in your car with Tesla. They don't want to know and they'll give you a brutal quote, often 30-40% below what other dealers offer

thelizardking1 · 06-07-2021 8:14am

893bet wrote: »

Dropped 16k last year on a watch from c24.

Oh boy! That sentence there tells me all I need to know about you.

893bet · 06-07-2021 8:42am

thelizardking1 wrote: »

Oh boy! That sentence there tells me all I need to know about you.

Why? Cos I used the word “dropped”.

What does that tell you?

I will refer to my previous post again as it seems apt

893bet wrote: »

in a condescending way it doesn’t further your argument.

unkel · 06-07-2021 9:08am

Interesting discussion though, one thing frightens me a bit. The consensus on the forum a bit over a year ago was that these moonwatches weren't really going anywhere. The value back then of both hesalite and sapphire in a private sale here in Ireland were firmly under the €3k mark. Even if we'd be more conservative than even 893bet above and say the watch will fetch €3750, that's a huge increase in a year.

Perhaps Omega are succeeding after all then in their strategy of substantially upping their retail prices year on year to drag the value of all their watches up (towards Rolex levels)?

And the winner of dreamer of the year is...

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