Battery Day Thread

peposhi

Surprisingly there’s no thread dedicated to it...

I’ve missed the event and will watch tonight at some stage...
Anyone managed to watch it? Your opinion on it?

Thierry12

I watched it and delighted

Can finally buy shares again after that disaster

Few people that know the tech will see positives, but general public won't

It was pure fantasy to general public, he should have put up images of Mars and Tesla mining that lol

Black_Knight

The beeping of car horns to signify applause. <facepalm>

Black_Knight

Pretty much the start of battery day talk:

https://youtu.be/l6T9xIeZTds?t=6025

Lumen

Underwhelming given all the "battery day" hype over the past few years.

- No improved battery chemistry.
- New 4680 cell isn't really any better than what they have right now, at the pack level, because the reduced internal resistance just offsets the worse performance of the form factor. It just allows them to reduce cell cost by 14%.
- Plaid Model S seems to be no further forward except you can now pre-order it. It will suffer even more on track than the current Model S because it's heavier and more powerful.

The one bit of positive news is the made-in-China hatchback (Model 2?). A €30k 320km RWD Tesla hatchback would be great, although even that doesn't seem as groundbreaking these days - it would underrcut the 64kWh Koreans by €10k, but have substantially less range, and nobody in their right mind is going to pay €8k for FSD on a €30k hatchback. It'd basically be a competitor to the ID.3. Woop.

This is good though, right? Mature is boring. I mean, unless you're a Tesla shareholder. :pac:

Lumen

€164k for the Plaid Model S.

Cheaper than a Taycan Turbo S. :pac:

ELM327

Lumen wrote: »

€164k for the Plaid Model S.

Cheaper than a Taycan Turbo S. :pac:

That's the key point that many (including myself till now!) have missed

unkel

Thanks Lumen for the summary. I don't have to bother viewing it or parts of it now

Lumen wrote: »

Underwhelming given all the "battery day" hype over the past few years.

As I predicted. There are no "magic" improvements to batteries that are about to become commercially available. Not from Tesla, not from anyone else. I've been saying that on here for years. And the "million mile battery" is also a load of bull. Batteries can already reach that or at least a mileage that is relevant for cars like say 500-600k km (after which they are 99% certain to be dead / written off, despite the battery)

Thierry12 wrote: »

I bought last time when Elon lost it on Joe Rogan

This time will be even better, going to buy when they go below $300 which should be pretty soon, bought for under $200 that time

You do realise that $300 is now actually $1500 because of the share split?

I hope you held on to the shares you bought for $200. It would have made you an immense return, rarely or never seen at this scale in the stock market in recent decades.

Thierry12

unkel wrote: »

You do realise that $300 is now actually $1500 because of the share split?

I hope you held on to the shares you bought for $200. It would have made you an immense return, rarely or never seen at this scale in the stock market in recent decades.

**** forgot about that split

Yeah have the 5 shares, probably die with them and my BOI shares

Learned from my bitcoin days to keep, id have been posting from bahamas if I kept them

unkel

Fair play, that $1000 you invested in 5 shares a year and a bit ago is now worth over $10,000

I bought around the same time, but sold once I had made a substantial return (I think about 50%) in 5 months or so. Had I held on, I would be able to buy a Tesla from the profits

Lumen

unkel wrote: »

And the "million mile battery" is also a load of bull. Batteries can already reach that or at least a mileage that is relevant for cars like say 500-600k km (after which they are 99% certain to be dead / written off, despite the battery)

From what I've read LFP is convincingly better at this stuff, and is more plausible for a second life in powerwall-type applications, unfortunately it's less powerful and energy dense and not developed by Tesla so Tesla can't/won't make a fuss about it.

If you compare the weight of (say) a Model Y to an etron, there is clearly room to make Teslas heavier without making them unusable.

Lumen

unkel wrote: »

Thanks Lumen for the summary. I don't have to bother viewing it or parts of it now

For avoidance of doubt, I'm only going off analysis I skimmed over coffee. I may well have it wrong.

Thierry12

Lumen wrote: »

From what I've read LFP is convincingly better at this stuff, and is more plausible for a second life in powerwall-type applications, unfortunately it's less powerful and energy dense and not developed by Tesla so Tesla can't/won't make a fuss about it.

If you compare the weight of (say) a Model Y to an etron, there is clearly room to make Teslas heavier without making them unusable.

Not sure

Its has its fan boys too

Pushevs especially

Saying that VW bought a 20% stake in a Chinese company that specialises in them

Toyota, VW etc are the ones to watch on batteries, Tesla are small time in R&D imo

Yeah as we expected all hype.

25 K ev will be 35K here in 5 years if they actually get it out by then.....

unkel

Lumen wrote: »

From what I've read LFP is convincingly better at this stuff, and is more plausible for a second life in powerwall-type applications, unfortunately it's less powerful and energy dense and not developed by Tesla so Tesla can't/won't make a fuss about it.

Yep, I said that too

LFP (LiFePo4) is a bit heavier, but superior in many other ways. Not least in safety. Have you ever wondered why Tesla refuse to install a power wall inside the living area of your home? With LFP this is not an issue

My own power wall is made up of LFP cells. And if I ever convert my Porsche to electric, I will use these too.

Lumen

unkel wrote: »

And if I ever convert my Porsche to electric, I will use these too.

Thumbs down! Don't cross the streams! :pac:

Thierry12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yeah as we expected all hype.

25 K ev will be 35K here in 5 years if they actually get it out by then.....

Funny alright

ID3 is the car Tesla promised

€35,000, 350km, 35min 80% fast charge

Elon has spoken ;-)

Unless they've increased the energy density of LiFeP04 which I don't think they have you won't see it in many electric cars, it's been around a long time now, it's larger and heavier too. Good life but with a big ass battery in a Model S/Kona etc I can't see battery life being a major issue after 300,000 kms.

Thierry12

Thierry12 wrote: »

Funny alright

ID3 is the car Tesla promised

€35,000, 350km, 35min 80% fast charge

Elon has spoken ;-)

Yep, shows what the Germans can do if they put their mind to it, VW is the largest Auto maker in the world so they have the funds to do anything they want they've finally seen the light but I doubt they have serious battery supply just yet, I expect the ID.4 will be a big hit in Ireland, the VW salesman told me that the id.4 base will cost around 40K and he can't see many buy the id.3 for 40 K even with higher spec and he's probably right. I'm not sure I would either especially if the interior is much better.

I'd like VW to announce the end of the TDI but it's a serious earner for VW so they're not going to do this but it would be nice to get rid of diesels that are too polluting for U.S streets so why should we have to get poisoned by them ?

liamog

The blogosphere reporting a 10k cheaper in 3 years as if it's a huge innovation by Tesla.
Tesla could probably do it today if they offered a 300km range car and took out most of the toys in a Model 3.
I've long held the opinion that Tesla's are priced to compete with Audi, not Volkswagen.

blinding

There is something about Elon Musk that leaves me cold almost as if I have been drained ! !

liamog

liamog wrote: »

The blogosphere reporting a 10k cheaper in 3 years as if it's a huge innovation by Tesla.
Tesla could probably do it today if they offered a 300km range car and took out most of the toys in a Model 3.
I've long held the opinion that Tesla's are priced to compete with Audi, not Volkswagen.

Indeed, tesla are not trying to compete with VW, they want to make cars that appeal to People with larger incomes but this is not what's going to gain what Elon wants which is mass adoption.

I wouldn't consider a model 3 SR+ having lots of toys ? what's it got that many cars haven't today ? Auto pilot ? not a lot faster charging than a id.3 really because of the charging curve ? Many cars have a version of Autopilot that's just as good, VW traffic assist is pretty good, just don't think it can receive OTA updates.

The real issue for us is the Really high taxes imposed by our Government, it's ridiculous. 23% VAT is extortion along with income tax and others.

micks_address

Its interesting re VW... they are for many to late to the electric game but in reality they might be just right on time (by accident it seems)... in many ways they will drive electric adoption purely by the number of people buying vw cars and their other marques.. if they had electric 5 years ago... who'd have bought? its a bit like android phones... they can be as slick as they want but apple can fart and bring out a tweaked design and will sell millions whereas the android phones are just ice skating up a hill regardless of innovation

Deleted User wrote: »

Yep, shows what the Germans can do if they put their mind to it, VW is the largest Auto maker in the world so they have the funds to do anything they want they've finally seen the light but I doubt they have serious battery supply just yet, I expect the ID.4 will be a big hit in Ireland, the VW salesman told me that the id.4 base will cost around 40K and he can't see many buy the id.3 for 40 K even with higher spec and he's probably right. I'm not sure I would either especially if the interior is much better.

I'd like VW to announce the end of the TDI but it's a serious earner for VW so they're not going to do this but it would be nice to get rid of diesels that are too polluting for U.S streets so why should we have to get poisoned by them ?

micks_address

micks_address wrote: »

Its interesting re VW... they are for many to late to the electric game but in reality they might be just right on time (by accident it seems)... in many ways they will drive electric adoption purely by the number of people buying vw cars and their other marques.. if they had electric 5 years ago... who'd have bought? its a bit like android phones... they can be as slick as they want but apple can fart and bring out a tweaked design and will sell millions whereas the android phones are just ice skating up a hill regardless of innovation

VW have had the Golf-EV a while now.

I'd say VW only have the id.3 out now because of Diesel Gate, no other reason. Trying to rebuild their reputation and from increasing local political pressure to build cleaner cars but this same local Government protected their diesels for years and helped create diesel gate.

VW sales are huge so they don't really have to make electrics at all from a business point of view.

Lumen

Deleted User wrote: »

I wouldn't consider a model 3 SR+ having lots of toys ? what's it got that many cars haven't today ? Auto pilot ?

In terms of things which could be cost-cut or are options on other cars:

- Cameras
- Autopilot
- Panoramic glass sunroof.
- Complex expensive chassis construction.
- "Leather"
- Charging cables
- Rear disc brakes (the ID.3 has drums, LOL)
- Fast charging (see Taycan, for instance).
- Metallic paint (OK, the paint is already cheap)
- Frunk shopping bag hooks. Oh wait, they did that already.

Imagine a Model 3 SR+ with no cameras or driver assist, small brakes, 17" wheels, steel roof, and cloth seats, for 35k. I would buy that.

unkel

liamog wrote: »

The blogosphere reporting a 10k cheaper in 3 years as if it's a huge innovation by Tesla.
Tesla could probably do it today if they offered a 300km range car and took out most of the toys in a Model 3.
I've long held the opinion that Tesla's are priced to compete with Audi, not Volkswagen.

Kind of. A new manufacturer can't just start up and jump in and start producing competitive lower end cars in the hundreds of thousands or millions. The ony realistic way is to start very high end with hand build high margin cars (Roadster, Model S) then slowly move down the ladder while increasing production (Model 3, Model Y). Perhaps moving even further down in future but it's a tough game in the cheaper end of the market. Where giants like VW and Toyota excel

Lumen wrote: »

- Rear disc brakes (the ID.3 has drums, LOL)

I hope you are joking?

The only car I have ever owned with drum brakes was an early 90s Nissan Micra. The ID.3 is obviously an exercise in how to make a car as cheaply as possible (VW need that to survive), but that is taking the complete mick.

liamog

micks_address wrote: »

Its interesting re VW... they are for many to late to the electric game but in reality they might be just right on time (by accident it seems)... in many ways they will drive electric adoption purely by the number of people buying vw cars and their other marques.. if they had electric 5 years ago...

The e-Up! was released in 2014, and the e-Golf in 2015. Both cars sold in decent number across Europe. They tended to fade into the background as they look exactly like their ICE equivalent. The story going round is that the MEB platform was put into action within a couple of weeks of the dieselgate scandal breaking.

VW are a platform building company, I think dieselgate represented an acceleration of a plan that would of happened anyway. It gave the engineers a justification to push the massive investment, something that was surely missed in BMW, where they had a really good i program but failed when it came to corporate support to expand the line up.

I missed the start of the live stream, but rewatched it this morning, they are claiming over 60% reduction in production costs and 15% increase in range by changing the production process, these are really significant changes and will really set a hard target for other car manufacturers to match.
The changes in production methodology is a huge step forward in mass production of batteries for the future.
They also claim that their now casting process will vastly reduce the number of parts needed in the subframes down to two, plus the battery unit becomes the structural floor, in other words their future vehicles will be as easy to build as an Airfix model!
Unfortunately, I see it also making vehicles almost unrepairable after anything except a minor shunt.

Tesla have set their future production target at only 1% of total global vehicle requirements, so 99% of the market will remain for the others.
So From what I can see, Tesla will not "kill" other manufactures, rather they will force them to follow.

liamog

Deleted User wrote: »

I missed the start of the live stream, but rewatched it this morning, they are claiming over 60% reduction in production costs and 15% increase in range by changing the production process, these are really significant changes and will really set a hard target for other car manufacturers to match.

15% increase in density and 60% reduction in cost is on the high end, but isn't mind blowing.
To put it into perspective the Ioniq with LG Chem batteries increased in density by approx 13% per year between 2017 and the 2020 model. Similarly we've seen between 15% and 20% reductions in price per kWh per year. Tesla are good at what they do, but they aren't exceptional.

Lumen

unkel wrote: »

I hope you are joking?

The only car I have ever owned with drum brakes was an early 90s Nissan Micra. The ID.3 is obviously an exercise in how to make a car as cheaply as possible (VW need that to survive), but that is taking the complete mick.

https://www.volkswagen.ie/en/models-and-configurator/id3-1st.html

Scroll to Build and Price. Click "Show standard equipment".

RRP € 42,915.00, Drum brakes in rear.

I had a Caterham with a live axle and rear drum brakes, but it only weighed 390kg.

(sorry, a bit off topic, but it does go to "how to make a car cheaper/more profitable")

liamog

liamog wrote: »

15% increase in density and 60% reduction in cost is on the high end, but isn't mind blowing.
To put it into perspective the Ioniq with LG Chem batteries increased in density by approx 13% per year between 2017 and the 2020 model. Similarly we've seen between 15% and 20% reductions in price per kWh per year. Tesla are good at what they do, but they aren't exceptional.

True, but the fact that any company is making these improvements is a step in the right direction. The main innovations are in the cell production itself, the tabless structure and the methods of extracting Lithium and other enhancements are driving the prices down.


Hopefully the battery manufacturers are cooperating for the benefit of all in the transition to EV and static storage solutions.