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Battery Day Thread

  • 23-09-2020 4:01am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭


    Surprisingly there’s no thread dedicated to it...

    I’ve missed the event and will watch tonight at some stage...
    Anyone managed to watch it? Your opinion on it?


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    I watched it and delighted

    Can finally buy shares again after that disaster

    Few people that know the tech will see positives, but general public won't

    It was pure fantasy to general public, he should have put up images of Mars and Tesla mining that lol


  • Moderators Posts: 12,390 ✭✭✭✭Black_Knight


    The beeping of car horns to signify applause. <facepalm>


  • Moderators Posts: 12,390 ✭✭✭✭Black_Knight


    Pretty much the start of battery day talk:

    https://youtu.be/l6T9xIeZTds?t=6025



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,206 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    Underwhelming given all the "battery day" hype over the past few years.

    - No improved battery chemistry.
    - New 4680 cell isn't really any better than what they have right now, at the pack level, because the reduced internal resistance just offsets the worse performance of the form factor. It just allows them to reduce cell cost by 14%.
    - Plaid Model S seems to be no further forward except you can now pre-order it. It will suffer even more on track than the current Model S because it's heavier and more powerful.

    The one bit of positive news is the made-in-China hatchback (Model 2?). A €30k 320km RWD Tesla hatchback would be great, although even that doesn't seem as groundbreaking these days - it would underrcut the 64kWh Koreans by €10k, but have substantially less range, and nobody in their right mind is going to pay €8k for FSD on a €30k hatchback. It'd basically be a competitor to the ID.3. Woop.

    This is good though, right? Mature is boring. I mean, unless you're a Tesla shareholder. :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,206 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    €164k for the Plaid Model S.

    Cheaper than a Taycan Turbo S. :pac:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,469 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Lumen wrote: »
    €164k for the Plaid Model S.

    Cheaper than a Taycan Turbo S. :pac:
    That's the key point that many (including myself till now!) have missed


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66,005 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Thanks Lumen for the summary. I don't have to bother viewing it or parts of it now
    Lumen wrote: »
    Underwhelming given all the "battery day" hype over the past few years.

    As I predicted. There are no "magic" improvements to batteries that are about to become commercially available. Not from Tesla, not from anyone else. I've been saying that on here for years. And the "million mile battery" is also a load of bull. Batteries can already reach that or at least a mileage that is relevant for cars like say 500-600k km (after which they are 99% certain to be dead / written off, despite the battery)
    Thierry12 wrote: »
    I bought last time when Elon lost it on Joe Rogan

    This time will be even better, going to buy when they go below $300 which should be pretty soon, bought for under $200 that time

    You do realise that $300 is now actually $1500 because of the share split? ;)

    I hope you held on to the shares you bought for $200. It would have made you an immense return, rarely or never seen at this scale in the stock market in recent decades.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    unkel wrote: »

    You do realise that $300 is now actually $1500 because of the share split? ;)

    I hope you held on to the shares you bought for $200. It would have made you an immense return, rarely or never seen at this scale in the stock market in recent decades.

    **** forgot about that split

    Yeah have the 5 shares, probably die with them and my BOI shares

    Learned from my bitcoin days to keep, id have been posting from bahamas if I kept them :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66,005 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Fair play, that $1000 you invested in 5 shares a year and a bit ago is now worth over $10,000

    I bought around the same time, but sold once I had made a substantial return (I think about 50%) in 5 months or so. Had I held on, I would be able to buy a Tesla from the profits :p


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,206 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    unkel wrote: »
    And the "million mile battery" is also a load of bull. Batteries can already reach that or at least a mileage that is relevant for cars like say 500-600k km (after which they are 99% certain to be dead / written off, despite the battery)
    From what I've read LFP is convincingly better at this stuff, and is more plausible for a second life in powerwall-type applications, unfortunately it's less powerful and energy dense and not developed by Tesla so Tesla can't/won't make a fuss about it.

    If you compare the weight of (say) a Model Y to an etron, there is clearly room to make Teslas heavier without making them unusable.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,206 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    unkel wrote: »
    Thanks Lumen for the summary. I don't have to bother viewing it or parts of it now
    For avoidance of doubt, I'm only going off analysis I skimmed over coffee. I may well have it wrong. :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Lumen wrote: »
    From what I've read LFP is convincingly better at this stuff, and is more plausible for a second life in powerwall-type applications, unfortunately it's less powerful and energy dense and not developed by Tesla so Tesla can't/won't make a fuss about it.

    If you compare the weight of (say) a Model Y to an etron, there is clearly room to make Teslas heavier without making them unusable.

    Not sure

    Its has its fan boys too

    Pushevs especially

    Saying that VW bought a 20% stake in a Chinese company that specialises in them

    Toyota, VW etc are the ones to watch on batteries, Tesla are small time in R&D imo


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Yeah as we expected all hype.

    25 K ev will be 35K here in 5 years if they actually get it out by then.....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66,005 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Lumen wrote: »
    From what I've read LFP is convincingly better at this stuff, and is more plausible for a second life in powerwall-type applications, unfortunately it's less powerful and energy dense and not developed by Tesla so Tesla can't/won't make a fuss about it.

    Yep, I said that too :)

    LFP (LiFePo4) is a bit heavier, but superior in many other ways. Not least in safety. Have you ever wondered why Tesla refuse to install a power wall inside the living area of your home? With LFP this is not an issue

    My own power wall is made up of LFP cells. And if I ever convert my Porsche to electric, I will use these too.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,206 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    unkel wrote: »
    And if I ever convert my Porsche to electric, I will use these too.
    Thumbs down! Don't cross the streams! :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Yeah as we expected all hype.

    25 K ev will be 35K here in 5 years if they actually get it out by then.....

    Funny alright

    ID3 is the car Tesla promised

    €35,000, 350km, 35min 80% fast charge

    Elon has spoken ;-)


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Unless they've increased the energy density of LiFeP04 which I don't think they have you won't see it in many electric cars, it's been around a long time now, it's larger and heavier too. Good life but with a big ass battery in a Model S/Kona etc I can't see battery life being a major issue after 300,000 kms.


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Funny alright

    ID3 is the car Tesla promised

    €35,000, 350km, 35min 80% fast charge

    Elon has spoken ;-)

    Yep, shows what the Germans can do if they put their mind to it, VW is the largest Auto maker in the world so they have the funds to do anything they want they've finally seen the light but I doubt they have serious battery supply just yet, I expect the ID.4 will be a big hit in Ireland, the VW salesman told me that the id.4 base will cost around 40K and he can't see many buy the id.3 for 40 K even with higher spec and he's probably right. I'm not sure I would either especially if the interior is much better.

    I'd like VW to announce the end of the TDI but it's a serious earner for VW so they're not going to do this but it would be nice to get rid of diesels that are too polluting for U.S streets so why should we have to get poisoned by them ?


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,099 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    The blogosphere reporting a 10k cheaper in 3 years as if it's a huge innovation by Tesla.
    Tesla could probably do it today if they offered a 300km range car and took out most of the toys in a Model 3.
    I've long held the opinion that Tesla's are priced to compete with Audi, not Volkswagen.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,466 ✭✭✭blinding


    There is something about Elon Musk that leaves me cold almost as if I have been drained ! !


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  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    liamog wrote: »
    The blogosphere reporting a 10k cheaper in 3 years as if it's a huge innovation by Tesla.
    Tesla could probably do it today if they offered a 300km range car and took out most of the toys in a Model 3.
    I've long held the opinion that Tesla's are priced to compete with Audi, not Volkswagen.

    Indeed, tesla are not trying to compete with VW, they want to make cars that appeal to People with larger incomes but this is not what's going to gain what Elon wants which is mass adoption.

    I wouldn't consider a model 3 SR+ having lots of toys ? what's it got that many cars haven't today ? Auto pilot ? not a lot faster charging than a id.3 really because of the charging curve ? Many cars have a version of Autopilot that's just as good, VW traffic assist is pretty good, just don't think it can receive OTA updates.

    The real issue for us is the Really high taxes imposed by our Government, it's ridiculous. 23% VAT is extortion along with income tax and others.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,907 ✭✭✭micks_address


    Its interesting re VW... they are for many to late to the electric game but in reality they might be just right on time (by accident it seems)... in many ways they will drive electric adoption purely by the number of people buying vw cars and their other marques.. if they had electric 5 years ago... who'd have bought? its a bit like android phones... they can be as slick as they want but apple can fart and bring out a tweaked design and will sell millions whereas the android phones are just ice skating up a hill regardless of innovation
    Yep, shows what the Germans can do if they put their mind to it, VW is the largest Auto maker in the world so they have the funds to do anything they want they've finally seen the light but I doubt they have serious battery supply just yet, I expect the ID.4 will be a big hit in Ireland, the VW salesman told me that the id.4 base will cost around 40K and he can't see many buy the id.3 for 40 K even with higher spec and he's probably right. I'm not sure I would either especially if the interior is much better.

    I'd like VW to announce the end of the TDI but it's a serious earner for VW so they're not going to do this but it would be nice to get rid of diesels that are too polluting for U.S streets so why should we have to get poisoned by them ?


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Its interesting re VW... they are for many to late to the electric game but in reality they might be just right on time (by accident it seems)... in many ways they will drive electric adoption purely by the number of people buying vw cars and their other marques.. if they had electric 5 years ago... who'd have bought? its a bit like android phones... they can be as slick as they want but apple can fart and bring out a tweaked design and will sell millions whereas the android phones are just ice skating up a hill regardless of innovation

    VW have had the Golf-EV a while now.

    I'd say VW only have the id.3 out now because of Diesel Gate, no other reason. Trying to rebuild their reputation and from increasing local political pressure to build cleaner cars but this same local Government protected their diesels for years and helped create diesel gate.

    VW sales are huge so they don't really have to make electrics at all from a business point of view.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,206 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    I wouldn't consider a model 3 SR+ having lots of toys ? what's it got that many cars haven't today ? Auto pilot ?
    In terms of things which could be cost-cut or are options on other cars:

    - Cameras
    - Autopilot
    - Panoramic glass sunroof.
    - Complex expensive chassis construction.
    - "Leather"
    - Charging cables
    - Rear disc brakes (the ID.3 has drums, LOL)
    - Fast charging (see Taycan, for instance).
    - Metallic paint (OK, the paint is already cheap)
    - Frunk shopping bag hooks. Oh wait, they did that already.

    Imagine a Model 3 SR+ with no cameras or driver assist, small brakes, 17" wheels, steel roof, and cloth seats, for 35k. I would buy that.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66,005 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    liamog wrote: »
    The blogosphere reporting a 10k cheaper in 3 years as if it's a huge innovation by Tesla.
    Tesla could probably do it today if they offered a 300km range car and took out most of the toys in a Model 3.
    I've long held the opinion that Tesla's are priced to compete with Audi, not Volkswagen.

    Kind of. A new manufacturer can't just start up and jump in and start producing competitive lower end cars in the hundreds of thousands or millions. The ony realistic way is to start very high end with hand build high margin cars (Roadster, Model S) then slowly move down the ladder while increasing production (Model 3, Model Y). Perhaps moving even further down in future but it's a tough game in the cheaper end of the market. Where giants like VW and Toyota excel
    Lumen wrote: »
    - Rear disc brakes (the ID.3 has drums, LOL)

    I hope you are joking?

    The only car I have ever owned with drum brakes was an early 90s Nissan Micra. The ID.3 is obviously an exercise in how to make a car as cheaply as possible (VW need that to survive), but that is taking the complete mick.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,099 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Its interesting re VW... they are for many to late to the electric game but in reality they might be just right on time (by accident it seems)... in many ways they will drive electric adoption purely by the number of people buying vw cars and their other marques.. if they had electric 5 years ago...

    The e-Up! was released in 2014, and the e-Golf in 2015. Both cars sold in decent number across Europe. They tended to fade into the background as they look exactly like their ICE equivalent. The story going round is that the MEB platform was put into action within a couple of weeks of the dieselgate scandal breaking.

    VW are a platform building company, I think dieselgate represented an acceleration of a plan that would of happened anyway. It gave the engineers a justification to push the massive investment, something that was surely missed in BMW, where they had a really good i program but failed when it came to corporate support to expand the line up.


  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I missed the start of the live stream, but rewatched it this morning, they are claiming over 60% reduction in production costs and 15% increase in range by changing the production process, these are really significant changes and will really set a hard target for other car manufacturers to match.
    The changes in production methodology is a huge step forward in mass production of batteries for the future.
    They also claim that their now casting process will vastly reduce the number of parts needed in the subframes down to two, plus the battery unit becomes the structural floor, in other words their future vehicles will be as easy to build as an Airfix model!
    Unfortunately, I see it also making vehicles almost unrepairable after anything except a minor shunt.

    Tesla have set their future production target at only 1% of total global vehicle requirements, so 99% of the market will remain for the others.
    So From what I can see, Tesla will not "kill" other manufactures, rather they will force them to follow.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,099 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    I missed the start of the live stream, but rewatched it this morning, they are claiming over 60% reduction in production costs and 15% increase in range by changing the production process, these are really significant changes and will really set a hard target for other car manufacturers to match.

    15% increase in density and 60% reduction in cost is on the high end, but isn't mind blowing.
    To put it into perspective the Ioniq with LG Chem batteries increased in density by approx 13% per year between 2017 and the 2020 model. Similarly we've seen between 15% and 20% reductions in price per kWh per year. Tesla are good at what they do, but they aren't exceptional.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,206 ✭✭✭✭Lumen


    unkel wrote: »
    I hope you are joking?

    The only car I have ever owned with drum brakes was an early 90s Nissan Micra. The ID.3 is obviously an exercise in how to make a car as cheaply as possible (VW need that to survive), but that is taking the complete mick.

    https://www.volkswagen.ie/en/models-and-configurator/id3-1st.html

    Scroll to Build and Price. Click "Show standard equipment".

    RRP € 42,915.00, Drum brakes in rear.

    I had a Caterham with a live axle and rear drum brakes, but it only weighed 390kg. :D

    (sorry, a bit off topic, but it does go to "how to make a car cheaper/more profitable")


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  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    liamog wrote: »
    15% increase in density and 60% reduction in cost is on the high end, but isn't mind blowing.
    To put it into perspective the Ioniq with LG Chem batteries increased in density by approx 13% per year between 2017 and the 2020 model. Similarly we've seen between 15% and 20% reductions in price per kWh per year. Tesla are good at what they do, but they aren't exceptional.
    True, but the fact that any company is making these improvements is a step in the right direction. The main innovations are in the cell production itself, the tabless structure and the methods of extracting Lithium and other enhancements are driving the prices down.


    Hopefully the battery manufacturers are cooperating for the benefit of all in the transition to EV and static storage solutions.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,099 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    True, but the fact that any company is making these improvements is a step in the right direction. The main innovations are in the cell production itself, the tabless structure and the methods of extracting Lithium and other enhancements are driving the prices down.


    Hopefully the battery manufacturers are cooperating for the benefit of all in the transition to EV and static storage solutions.

    That's the point I'm making, LG Chem, SK Innovation and the multitude of Chinese battery manufacturers are progressing just as much. Most of the cost reductions have been down to economies of scale and the change in chemistries which reduce the expensive ingredients.
    Always be wary of percentage improvements given to shareholders 60% and 15% represent annual rates of improvement of 17% and 5.5% over 3 years.

    That put's the statement "these are really significant changes and will really set a hard target for other car manufacturers to match." into perspective.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66,005 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    Lumen wrote: »
    https://www.volkswagen.ie/en/models-and-configurator/id3-1st.html

    Scroll to Build and Price. Click "Show standard equipment".

    RRP € 42,915.00, Drum brakes in rear.

    Just so not everybody will have to go look it up:

    527168.jpg

    And my 1993 Micra (780kg) also had front disks and rear drums. Same as the 2020 ID.3 (less than a stone shy of 1700kg in the lightest version)

    Could VW not have spent the €50 or so to get disk brakes all round? Cheap seats and cheap plastic in the interior is one thing but to skimp on safety? Honestly this shocks me :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,564 ✭✭✭eagerv


    Lumen wrote: »

    - Rear disc brakes (the ID.3 has drums, LOL)
    unkel wrote: »


    I hope you are joking?

    The only car I have ever owned with drum brakes was an early 90s Nissan Micra. The ID.3 is obviously an exercise in how to make a car as cheaply as possible (VW need that to survive), but that is taking the complete mick.


    I can assure you that the brakes on my two day old ID.3 are excellent and powerful, with a nice natural feel compared to other EVs I have driven. Never driven a Model 3 so cannot comment on theirs.


    I would imagine there is no or very little price advantage to VW by using drums on rear, but apparently drums are more reliable on RWD EVs in some climates. Bjorn mentioned it in one of his videos.


  • Registered Users Posts: 120 ✭✭Plasmoid


    They also claim that their now casting process will vastly reduce the number of parts needed in the subframes down to two, plus the battery unit becomes the structural floor, in other words their future vehicles will be as easy to build as an Airfix model!
    Unfortunately, I see it also making vehicles almost unrepairable after anything except a minor shunt.

    I'm with you on this. When i first heard about casting a huge part of the car it sounded to me like it had only had some drawbacks. But given a huge portion of the value of a crashed Tesla is in the battery pack, and for the Model S and Model X it's dropped out to scrap the chassis... yeah this sounds bad.
    That said I don't know what the current Model Y looks like from a battery pack removal standpoint, so maybe it's nothing new.
    unkel wrote: »
    And my 1993 Micra (780kg) also had front disks and rear drums. Same as the 2020 ID.3 (less than a stone shy of 1700kg in the lightest version)

    Could VW not have spent the €50 or so to get disk brakes all round? Cheap seats and cheap plastic in the interior is one thing but to skimp on safety? Honestly this shocks me :(

    I'm plodding around happily in my Mazda2 with drum brakes. I guess the ID3 is intended to eventually compete not a million miles away from it, and the ID4 is the real car for the masses Golf exiles.
    But my Mazda2 has an engine sitting over the front axle (and no rear grip...) so those rear brakes don't really see much use.
    On an ID3 i'd assume the drum brakes are never used until an emergency stop, otherwise regen and front brakes are more than enough.

    All I can think of is yes, supreme cost saving by penny pinching VW, but also did I hear of Teslas suffering rear disc brake corrosion and sticking in winter conditions, because they never see use? A sealed rear drum brake could be a winter targeted decision


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Lumen wrote: »
    In terms of things which could be cost-cut or are options on other cars:

    - Cameras
    - Autopilot
    - Panoramic glass sunroof.
    - Complex expensive chassis construction.
    - "Leather"
    - Charging cables
    - Rear disc brakes (the ID.3 has drums, LOL)
    - Fast charging (see Taycan, for instance).
    - Metallic paint (OK, the paint is already cheap)
    - Frunk shopping bag hooks. Oh wait, they did that already.

    Imagine a Model 3 SR+ with no cameras or driver assist, small brakes, 17" wheels, steel roof, and cloth seats, for 35k. I would buy that.

    I'd buy a model 3 for the current price of the SR+ if it was the performance :D

    As for steel roof, I would be delighted, then I could stick a MAG mount on it for my ham antennas, in fact the steel roof would be much more useful to me! :D


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  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    unkel wrote: »
    Could VW not have spent the €50 or so to get disk brakes all round? Cheap seats and cheap plastic in the interior is one thing but to skimp on safety? Honestly this shocks me :(

    Disk brakes int he rear are not necessary because regen makes up for any reduced braking performance if any and the drum brakes would be much less prone to breaking than discs due to corrosion on electrics.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,206 ✭✭✭✭Lumen




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,469 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    Drum brakes?

    LOL


  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ELM327 wrote: »
    Drum brakes?

    LOL

    Why so funny ? who really cares ? it's not like the brakes have to do much on an EV anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 66,005 ✭✭✭✭unkel
    Chauffe, Marcel, chauffe!


    I'd buy a model 3 for the current price of the SR+ if it was the performance :D

    Did you test drive an SR+? It's a lot faster than your i3
    Why so funny ? who really cares ? it's not like the brakes have to do much on an EV anyway.

    Yes, front brakes do most of the work anyway and then there's the regen. All true and I'm sure the ID.3 brakes fine even though it's the weight of a tank (only just short of my 90s BMW 7-series V8 petrol). I have no doubt though that VW stuck in the drum brakes to save money. And if this makes them a laughing stock, they have only themselves to blame


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  • Posts: 21,179 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    unkel wrote: »
    Did you test drive an SR+? It's a lot faster than your i3

    No, I haven't test driven the M3 yet, remember what happened when I took a test drive in the i3 ? :)

    Yeah it's fast but Performance would be better lol.
    unkel wrote: »
    Yes, front brakes do most of the work anyway and then there's the regen. All true and I'm sure the ID.3 brakes fine even though it's the weight of a tank (only just short of my 90s BMW 7-series V8 petrol). I have no doubt though that VW stuck in the drum brakes to save money. And if this makes them a laughing stock, they have only themselves to blame

    I would imagine they stuck in drum brakes mostly because they are more than adequate for the job. It's something that wouldn't really bother me to be honest.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Regional East Moderators Posts: 8,099 Mod ✭✭✭✭liamog


    Mod Note: As Tesla have not announced that their batteries are powered by drum brakes let's take the ID.3 conversation over here :)

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057979167


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