Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

PearseCork92

PearseCork92 wrote: »

The tracing system is resourced to the hilt,

This is the post of the thread.

At a fraction of the enormous waste of money we are currently spending and foregoing by destroying the economy and society.

bladespin

Thats me wrote: »

Wait, i missing something. Public pays to advisor for their advises. Adviser have advised L5, but govt, who are also paid by public, decided to go L3 and, after one week delay, agreed to go L5, but failed to enforce restrictions so now we likely to go for extended lockdown. What the problem with adviser? They seem did their job as it should be.

Nope, I’ve likened NPHET to an over enthusiastic H&S rep before (great intentions but hard to get any done with), and that’s what they’re supposed to do.

The recent messing about with media and crossed messages has left me disappointed but not really surprised as they having to play with politicians.
I still have some confidence in them but don’t think they should be in a position to dictate policy.

bladespin

bladespin wrote: »

Nope, I’ve likened NPHET to an over enthusiastic H&S rep before (great intentions but hard to get any done with), and that’s what they’re supposed to do.

The recent messing about with media and crossed messages has left me disappointed but not really surprised as they having to play with politicians.
I still have some confidence in them but don’t think they should be in a position to dictate policy.

Also NPHET was following the levels system in a sensible way until Tony Holohan came back and pushed the whole country into Level 5 on a Sunday evening out of the blue. This did enormous damage to the credibility of NPHET IMO that a single personality was clearly dominating a body of 40 experts.

Gael23

Looks like we’re getting a dispensation to spend one day with family over Christmas

bladespin

Gael23 wrote: »

Looks like we’re getting a dispensation to spend one day with family over Christmas

So generous, our little Christmas box.

kippy

Deleted User wrote: »

Also NPHET was following the levels system in a sensible way until Tony Holohan came back and pushed the whole country into Level 5 on a Sunday evening out of the blue. This did enormous damage to the credibility of NPHET IMO that a single personality was clearly dominating a body of 40 experts.

Hadn't NPHET recommended Level 5 a few weeks/maybe a week earlier but the government decided not to act on that advice......?
I don't see how your narrative stands up.
It certainly wasn't out of the blue.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

............. The evidence points to us getting here or close to it with Level 3..............

That is my point

Tpcl20

Its pretty hypocritical of NPHET to have those briefings twice weekly with poor social distancing and no mask wearing.

The WHO have video links with outside people, saves everyone having to congregate together in one place. Don't know why that isn't the way our public health team operates seeing as it's clearly best practice. Better than getting everyone to gather together in one place, surely that sends a confusing message when they're telling everyone else to work from home and reduce their number of contacts. They bring probably twenty journalists into that one room twice every week. They also haven't emphasised the importance of ventilation at all recently.

kippy

kippy wrote: »

Hadn't NPHET recommended Level 5 a few weeks/maybe a week earlier but the government decided not to act on that advice......?
I don't see how your narrative stands up.
It certainly wasn't out of the blue.

The tide is turning against that decision. Regina Doherty now being interviewed on RTE and saying it was a premature move to go to Level 5 that week, another article in the Irish Times today saying Leo Varadkar's advice to stay in Level 3 was probably correct then .....seems and he is being vindicated........https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/stephen-collins-government-must-assert-its-authority-over-nphet-1.4413793?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fopinion%2Fstephen-collins-government-must-assert-its-authority-over-nphet-1.441379

kippy

Deleted User wrote: »

The tide is turning against that decision. Regina Doherty now being interviewed on RTE and saying it was a premature move to go to Level 5 that week, another article in the Irish Times today saying Leo Varadkar's advice to stay in Level 3 was probably correct then .....seems and he is being vindicated........https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/stephen-collins-government-must-assert-its-authority-over-nphet-1.4413793?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fopinion%2Fstephen-collins-government-must-assert-its-authority-over-nphet-1.441379

It's a matter of opinion rather than fact - either way....personalyl, I believe had we gone to level 5 when we were first advised we'd be out of it by now and have a relatively decent run in to Christmas.

MOH

Deleted User wrote: »

This is the post of the thread.

At a fraction of the enormous waste of money we are currently spending and foregoing by destroying the economy and society.

But sure NPHET told us we had a perfect test and trace system capable of doing all that in July

Deleted User wrote: »

The tide is turning against that decision. Regina Doherty now being interviewed on RTE and saying it was a premature move to go to Level 5 that week, another article in the Irish Times today saying Leo Varadkar's advice to stay in Level 3 was probably correct then .....seems and he is being vindicated........https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/stephen-collins-government-must-assert-its-authority-over-nphet-1.4413793?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fopinion%2Fstephen-collins-government-must-assert-its-authority-over-nphet-1.441379

Those last NPHET minutes released were from a meeting on Oct 15th. At that point they said they were recommending level 5 as level 3 wasn't having an effect and the numbers were still going up. The end of the minutes notes that the next NPHET meeting would be on Oct 22nd, so I assume there was none before then.

Both the 5-day and 7-day averages peaked on Oct 18th, level 5 was announced on the 19th, and came in from midnight on the 21st.
But by the time L5 had any effect (even assuming only a 5 day lead time) the numbers were already rapidly dropping, the daily positivity rate from the 27th was down to 5 from 8 at the peak.

So it's fairly clear that moving to level 5 was premature, level 3 was starting to have a significant effect.

It's easy to say this is hindsight, but even at the time it was quite obvious that the 7-day average had stopped increasing about 5 days before level 5 came in. I actuallly thought a couple of times I was reading the wrong day's headline because the number wasn't going up. Whether it's down to NPHET only meeting once a week at a critical time, or just not wanting to back down, is anyone's guess. But it was definitely the wrong decision.

And the problem now is that the buy-in from the public is largely gone. If they'd hadn't rushed it and let level 3 take effect, then if the numbers didn't drop as low as they wanted, a 3-4 week level 5 during November to drive the R number right down before reopening would have been a lot more palatable. But they made a mess of it.


(data source for numbers)

Vieira82

Deleted User wrote: »

The tide is turning against that decision. Regina Doherty now being interviewed on RTE and saying it was a premature move to go to Level 5 that week, another article in the Irish Times today saying Leo Varadkar's advice to stay in Level 3 was probably correct then .....seems and he is being vindicated........https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/stephen-collins-government-must-assert-its-authority-over-nphet-1.4413793?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fopinion%2Fstephen-collins-government-must-assert-its-authority-over-nphet-1.441379

It really seems people are not aware of what's hapenning in Europe again atm... Because of level 5 Ireland is one of the few countries with daily cases being under 500 a day... Uk, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy Belgium etc all recording thousands of cases and in some cases hundreds of dead a day...

When I read this i actually ask myself how would Ireland coupe with 4k cases a day for example...

MOH

Vieira82 wrote: »

It really seems people are not aware of what's hapenning in Europe again atm... Because of level 5 Ireland is one of the few countries with daily cases being under 500 a day... Uk, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy Belgium etc all recording thousands of cases and in some cases hundreds of dead a day...

When I read this i actually ask myself how would Ireland coupe with 4k cases a day for example...

Nope

Thats me

MOH wrote: »

Those last NPHET minutes released were from a meeting on Oct 15th. At that point they said they were recommending level 5 as level 3 wasn't having an effect and the numbers were still going up.
...
And the problem now is that the buy-in from the public is largely gone. If they'd hadn't rushed it and let level 3 take effect, then if the numbers didn't drop as low as they wanted, a 3-4 week level 5 during November to drive the R number right down before reopening would have been a lot more palatable. But they made a mess of it.

Ill logics.
News from 5th of October:

Government officials have rejected NPHET'S Level 5 recommendations, and have instead proposed the nation is to operate under Level 3 restrictions with tighter enforcement of rules until October 27th.

This will affect 24 counties across Ireland as they meet Donegal and Dublin's level of restrictions.

As we can see NPHET have recommended L5 to government much earlier and then consistently adhered to its line.

So what we have: state paying adviser for their advises and ignoring their advises and you blaming adviser for "made a mess of it"? :cool:

When goverment was finally managed to introduce L5 as it was initially recommended - that was its, government's decision, to follow the advise. You cannot blame NPHET for this.

How goverment managed to implement L5 restriction that it left no trace on stats - this is also misterious mistery, but we cannot blame NPHET for the lack of enforcement.

MOH wrote: »

(data source for numbers)

Even your data is strange - why the hell we are looking on positive test ratios when direct stats showing daily new cases is readily available?


I do not tell about such logical omissions like attributing decreasing of cases to the Level 3 restrictions. Try to prove this and you probably will get Nobel Prize next year.

kippy

bladespin wrote: »

I think you're very wrong there, NPHET's very role is as advisors to the government and to the people, personally I think Tony Holohan did an excellent job at this from the beginning, lots of pretty clear advice to the public etc, if the public don't understand the reasoning behind the advice then NPHET is fundamentally failing.

Blaming the people for not understanding an advisor is ridiculous, it's not their job to understand.

To be fair expecting ALL of the people to understand is complete pie in the sky.
That shouldn't need to be stated but there ya go.

Vieira82

MOH wrote: »

Nope

ok then what is it? enlighten me or guardian of knowledge

Thats me

Vieira82 wrote: »

enlighten me or guardian of knowledge

it sounds.. is it quotation? (just curious)

agoodpunt

should have stayed L3 so we could have an effective L5 if needed after xmas, knee jerk and now hindsight here.
The big problem was the leaking by npet to embarrass the govt
Businesses and some people need time and clarity for adjustment of levels they have been very patient so far.
Can we trust same people to roll out the vaccine? lets hope they can

kippy

agoodpunt wrote: »

should have stayed L3 so we could have an effective L5 if needed after xmas, knee jerk and now hindsight here.
The big problem was the leaking by npet to embarrass the govt
Businesses and some people need time and clarity for adjustment of levels they have been very patient so far.
Can we trust same people to roll out the vaccine? lets hope they can

It's impossible to come to that conclusion though....
If we had gone level 5 when we were advised to would we be out of it now?

facehugger99

Vieira82 wrote: »

It really seems people are not aware of what's hapenning in Europe again atm... Because of level 5 Ireland is one of the few countries with daily cases being under 500 a day... Uk, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy Belgium etc all recording thousands of cases and in some cases hundreds of dead a day...
..

News just in, countries with bigger populations have more cases.

Happydays2020

Government has lost trust in NPHET. Department of Taoiseach bringing in outside expertise on data is another sign of distrust.

Bass Reeves

kippy wrote: »

It's impossible to come to that conclusion though....
If we had gone level 5 when we were advised to would we be out of it now?

Its impossible to conclude anything. Are the present High numbers due to retesting close contacts. Now with any case close contacts are tested within 24 hours generally and many are retested 5-6 days later again to pick up and close positives. This seems to be only happening in the last few weeks I mat be wrong butnit would account in the lag in the drop in new cases

prunudo

facehugger99 wrote: »

News just in, countries with bigger populations have more cases.

Thats what i don't get about our media's obsession with cases in the USA. Yes things are bad but there are 330m of them. Some of our closer neighbours in Europe are having worse figures. Italy's daily cases were on par with the states at present, similar to us getting 3,000 in a day.

bladespin

kippy wrote: »

To be fair expecting ALL of the people to understand is complete pie in the sky.
That shouldn't need to be stated but there ya go.

I'm not suggesting anyone should understand, or that NPHET should make them but there should be a high enough level of trust to accept and consider their advice, their recent actions have eroded that IMO, not to the point of complete mistrust for me but for many others it has, we should believe they have our best interests at heart but you would wonder sometimes.

Captain_Crash

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Government has lost trust in NPHET. Department of Taoiseach bringing in outside expertise on data is another sign of distrust.

Do you have a link for this? It would be interesting to read

Royale with Cheese

It's mentioned here:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/health-experts-favour-tighter-covid-restrictions-the-politicians-less-1.4415096?mode=amp

That article is an interesting read, highlights the completely ridiculous situation of the government now basically being at war with the advisory body they setup.

Bass Reeves

prunudo wrote: »

Thats what i don't get about our media's obsession with cases in the USA. Yes things are bad but there are 330m of them. Some of our closer neighbours in Europe are having worse figures. Italy's daily cases were on par with the states at present, similar to us getting 3,000 in a day.

The population of the EU is about 450 million (that is without the UK which has left. The population of the US is about 328 million. Comparing like for like total deaths in the EU are about 230k compared to the US. 3 countries in the EU Italy, Spain and France have the majority of deaths nearly 140k. If you allow that most deaths in these countries were in the first wave when they got blindsided it shows the disaster that the US is starting to have. We also know that in the EU there is fairly good accountability of numbers of deaths compared to the US. As well we have a higher population density which Italy, France and Spain had to cope with.

Drumpot

PearseCork92 wrote: »

I'm relatively recently back from South Korea. The test and tracing system in Ireland compared to there is a complete joke. I got tested 3 times over the year as I was in vague proximity to clusters. Every district of every city has a walk-in testing service you can access at 10 minutes notice and you get results via text within hours. The tracing system is resourced to the hilt, and on entering the country you actually have to quarantine following a test at the airport; you must download an app and you report your symptoms 3 times a day and they actually follow up with phone calls, and, the app's location tracker must be on at all times. Every business has to log people entering the premises via QR code. If you were in that premises where there was a case, you are contacted to go get tested. Entering Ireland, I got one text message asking if I'm still at the address I said I was. Nothing else.

Nothing to do with culture or obedient orientals with their mysterious ways. They just have their sh*t together. Members of the Korean public still act like idiots and gather in groups where they shouldn't just as Irish people do, but when something does go wrong, their disease control system moves rapidly and is well able for it. No lockdown at all since the pandemic started, just mild social distancing advice here and there.

I don't know if you can lay the blame at the government or NPHET, but we are light-years behind Asia in practical measures in containing the virus.

The government should send a HSE team to South Korea and Taiwan and actually pay attention to how to do things instead of pointing fingers at students / pints / insert something here.

Look at the amount of whinging in there forums. People are finding all sorts of excuses and reasons why the biggest problems are the authorise , NEPHET, level 5 and something else. No sense of personal responsibility, no self reflection on their own selfish motives for believing a specific narrative, it’s all about focusing on what they want and finding any data that props up this delusion. This usually involves attacking individuals (not what they say) and only acknowledging info that supports what they want to believe.

Many wouldn’t accept this disciplined approach that they have in asian counties. I think culturally we really aren’t very disciplined and prefer to think it’s the Asians affinity for authoritarian rule that excuses our inability to get our population to be more responsible. There is a reason why so many keep looking at Sweden as opposed to countries who have been better at managing and suppressing the virus. They just want things to open up with as few restrictions possible and will follow whatever story supports their desires. Western countries want their comforts and will come up with all sorts of excuses (economic, social, mental health) that don’t address the reasons why we are having to take certain lockdown approaches.

I really do despair at some of the really shallow and ignorant sentiments in these COVID threads. This is a crisis, mistakes will be made and sometimes wrong decisions will be made. How much of a difference is level 5 making in comparison to what level 3 might of down? I don’t f**king know, but some people talk as if it’s definitively proven that level 3 would of been fine. The problem with the world is that the stupid are cock sure and the intelligent are so full of doubt.

Drumpot

Drumpot wrote: »

Many wouldn’t accept this disciplined approach that they have in asian counties. I think culturally we really aren’t very disciplined and prefer to think it’s the Asians affinity for authoritarian rule that excuses our inability to get our population to be more responsible. There is a reason why so many keep looking at Sweden as opposed to countries who have been better at managing and suppressing the virus. They just want things to open up with as few restrictions possible and will follow whatever story supports their desires. Western countries want their comforts and will come up with all sorts of excuses (economic, social, mental health) that don’t address the reasons why we are having to take certain lockdown approaches.

I really do despair at some of the really shallow and ignorant sentiments in these COVID threads. This is a crisis, mistakes will be made and sometimes wrong decisions will be made. How much of a difference is level 5 making in comparison to what level 3 might of down? I don’t f**king know, but some people talk as if it’s definitively proven that level 3 would of been fine. The problem with the world is that the stupid are cock sure and the intelligent are so full of doubt.

Except it's not "comforts". It's our lives.

Happydays2020

Drumpot wrote: »

Look at the amount of whinging in there forums. People are finding all sorts of excuses and reasons why the biggest problems are the authorise , NEPHET, level 5 and something else. No sense of personal responsibility, no self reflection on their own selfish motives for believing a specific narrative, it’s all about focusing on what they want and finding any data that props up this delusion. This usually involves attacking individuals (not what they say) and only acknowledging info that supports what they want to believe.

Many wouldn’t accept this disciplined approach that they have in asian counties. I think culturally we really aren’t very disciplined and prefer to think it’s the Asians affinity for authoritarian rule that excuses our inability to get our population to be more responsible. There is a reason why so many keep looking at Sweden as opposed to countries who have been better at managing and suppressing the virus. They just want things to open up with as few restrictions possible and will follow whatever story supports their desires. Western countries want their comforts and will come up with all sorts of excuses (economic, social, mental health) that don’t address the reasons why we are having to take certain lockdown approaches.

I really do despair at some of the really shallow and ignorant sentiments in these COVID threads. This is a crisis, mistakes will be made and sometimes wrong decisions will be made. How much of a difference is level 5 making in comparison to what level 3 might of down? I don’t f**king know, but some people talk as if it’s definitively proven that level 3 would of been fine. The problem with the world is that the stupid are cock sure and the intelligent are so full of doubt.

Yes. NPHET have been cock sure.