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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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davo2001

Ah FFS, i just got a new fence built last week, well i suppose this will be a good test of it :-/

Tipp/Clare border region.

Bejubby

Graces7 wrote: »

Anyone skill re tide tables please? Just been out and a very low tide; sand exposed. Patches of blue skies but massing dark clouds swarming in. Very dramatic.

So when the tide turns? Rather lovely out but clearly not going to last.

Here Grace,go to locations and pick the nearest to you,then scroll down.
www.tidetimes.org.uk

Wild Field 1831

Donegal Ken wrote: »

He over hypes every storm and drop of rain that falls. He is Irelands version of the daily express. Met Éireann have a team of fully qualified meteorologists and have much more technology than he ever will have. Putting out bogus warnings like he has done is dangerous and the day a actual proper red warning needs to be issued some will ignore because he issues them once or twice a week. I know most of the the forecasts pages have this view also.

Amazing the amount of people I know who like his Facebook page and follow him. The comments section is 'ah Cathal you're a star', 'thanks so much Cathal you're so much better than Met Eireann'. I can't believe intelligent people I know follow this attention seeker.

He even came up with a new colour code for a night in June when he said thunderstorms would rival July 1985. Purple for extremely extreme weather!! Needless to say nobody saw lightning that particular night.

un5byh7sqpd2x0

DOCARCH

Here's the full latest warning from ME.

STATUS RED - WIND WARNING FOR CORK
Between 9pm and midnight Storm Ellen will produce a core of very severe and destructive winds.

Issued: 11:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Wednesday 19/08/2020

STATUS ORANGE - WIND WARNING FOR MUNSTER, GALWAY AND MAYO
Storm Ellen will track over Ireland this evening and tonight bringing severe and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall and storm surge will result in some flooding.

Issued: 11:22 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 06:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

STATUS YELLOW - WIND WARNING FOR IRELAND
It will become very windy on Wednesday night and throughout the day on Thursday. Severe gusts are likely and there is a risk of some disruption. Due to the combination of storm surge, spring tides and onshore winds there is a potential risk of coastal flooding.

Issued: 15:00 Tuesday 18/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

Storm 10

IWC not too far off now given ME red warning for Cork

nacho libre

Ninthlife wrote: »

Id like to know this too..

Also i sit on in Sth West Kildare on the border of Carlow and Laois. Any idea if it will be yellow or orange and should I weigh the trampoline down

In terms of intensity, i can't see the gusts being as strong as the ECM were showing. Met Eireann have a Yellow for your area. Parts of the south east could end up in orange terrority, but as MT Cranium was saying this could end up being quite localised.
In any event it's best to secure the trampoline.

SeaFields

DOCARCH wrote: »

Here's the full latest warning from ME.

STATUS RED - WIND WARNING FOR CORK
Between 9pm and midnight Storm Ellen will produce a core of very severe and destructive winds.

Issued: 11:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Wednesday 19/08/2020

STATUS ORANGE - WIND WARNING FOR MUNSTER, GALWAY AND MAYO
Storm Ellen will track over Ireland this evening and tonight bringing severe and damaging winds. Heavy rainfall and storm surge will result in some flooding.

Issued: 11:22 Wednesday 19/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 06:00 Thursday 20/08/2020

STATUS YELLOW - WIND WARNING FOR IRELAND
It will become very windy on Wednesday night and throughout the day on Thursday. Severe gusts are likely and there is a risk of some disruption. Due to the combination of storm surge, spring tides and onshore winds there is a potential risk of coastal flooding.

Issued: 15:00 Tuesday 18/08/2020

Valid from: 21:00 Wednesday 19/08/2020 to 23:59 Thursday 20/08/2020

There's a status red marine warning too. That could be important given the time of year this is hitting and many people being on the coast on hols. Granted the time of day it's hitting and the forewarning should mitigate risk.

Wild Field 1831

Storm 10 wrote: »

IWC not too far off now given ME red warning for Cork

He gives out red alerts for every event. He's bound to get it right when a severe one does come.

He'll get a decade out of it then saying he saw it coming a day before Met Eireann.

mmc2010

Marty Bird wrote: »

Joking aside will it be that bad ?wife is considering cancelling our hotel.

I would think the views will be amazing, depending on if you're into storm watching. If you're staying in the Walter Raleigh or Redbarn, you're looking right over the sea.

Thewife

Is a red alert for Waterford likely ?

redsteveireland

Storm 10 wrote: »

IWC not too far off now given ME red warning for Cork

Over-hypes every event, so he's bound to get something near enough right every now and again. A stopped clock and all that. As this is the boards.ie forum I would rather people didn't discuss his antics here, its not what I come here to read.

m17

Mourne mountains this morning

Wild Field 1831

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Ah yeah, he's given a red alert for the southern half of the country and is going on about 200km/h winds. Sure that's close enough to what ME are saying.

I actually think in old parlance 'he's not all there'.

pad199207

I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen Met Eireann not mention wind speeds in a wind warning.

munsterlegend

pad199207 wrote: »

I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen Met Eireann not mention wind speeds in a wind warning.

Yep very unusual. I wonder is it the sting jet that was referred to earlier is the danger for cork. Wording is quite severe as you would expect for a red warning.

Graces7

pad199207 wrote: »

I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen Met Eireann not mention wind speeds in a wind warning.

Yes I noticed that too. Someone said that they were not sure how strong they would be?

Wild Field 1831

I think more than Cork will go red. Every 2 hours Met Eireann are incrementally increasing warnings. It's measured, cagey and we've seen it before. Darwin 2014 especially.

froog

am i missing something here? the ICON on ventusky from 9pm to midnight looks very tame.

spookwoman

Thewife wrote: »

Is a red alert for Waterford likely ?

I wouldnt be surprised. Will just have to watch how it goes.

Drumpot

So it’s not gonna be too bad for the east I’m presuming?

Was just out running on the beach and in Bettystown and it was windy enough.

Thanks for the updates , always enjoy reading these threads.

Meteorite58

HARMONIE 06Z out now and showing strongest winds come ashore around Cork and run straight up through the country, keeping the strongest winds in the Eastern half of the country from what I can make out, 160km + at landfall, 120 to130+ at its strongest moving inland up through the country, more like 100km/h towards the E.

????

markjbloggs

As sure as night follows day, when a major storm approaches - Shannon radar goes down with "technical faults".

aisling86

Meteorite58 wrote: »

HARMONIE 06Z out now and showing strongest winds come ashore around Cork and run straight up through the country, keeping the strongest winds in the Eastern half of the country from what I can make out, 160km + at landfall, 120 to130+ at its strongest moving inland up through the country, more like 100km/h towards the E.

????

I reckon direct into city & worst winds east cork. Cant imagine I'll see full impact in macroom..

munsterlegend

aisling86 wrote: »

I reckon direct into city & worst winds east cork. Cant imagine I'll see full impact in macroom..

Afternoon models will be interesting.

m17

Storm Ellen out in the Atlantic

Oscar Bravo

A mention of 75 knot gusts on the Cork TAF , albeit a small chance. Rare though!

BECMG 1920/1922 20035G60KT TEMPO 1920/1924 5000 RA BKN008
PROB40 TEMPO 1921/1923 22040G75KT
BECMG 1923/2001 21025G45KT

RobertKK

Wild Field 1831 wrote: »

I think more than Cork will go red. Every 2 hours Met Eireann are incrementally increasing warnings. It's measured, cagey and we've seen it before. Darwin 2014 especially.

Yep, I mean Kilkenny went red warning during Darwin, when all hell was breaking lose, it was too late but warranted.

I know they have to be really sure before issuing red.

JanuarySnowstor

Where's my apology?? Lol

pnpweirdo

RobertKK wrote: »

Yep, I mean Kilkenny went red warning during Darwin, when all hell was breaking lose, it was too late but warranted.

I know they have to be really sure before issuing red.

Same as limerick city. When it was too late. Serious destruction. It was like a freight train outside the house