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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

M.T. Cranium

I just finished my forecast prep and discovered that various models are toying with strong developments in the Biscay region within 24-36 hours affecting some parts of Ireland within 36-48 hours, but details vary from model to model so at this early stage it's not possible to give a very precise alert for which regions may see the strongest winds.

The developments are somewhat similar to a near-tropical storm scenario that I recall from this time of year several years ago. That one moved into the Irish Sea.

Impacts are likely to be winds of at least 60 to 90 km/hr and possibly a lot stronger than that, possibly in more than one wave around Thursday and Friday, and locally intense rainfalls rapidly increasing in totals to reach 30-50 mm.

My expectation is that some clarity and model consensus may emerge as early as the 12z model runs later today but it may not be that straight forward.

At the moment, the ECM seems to favour the southwest for peak development while the Arpege model favours the southeast. While the GFS and some other models have considerable wind and rain in their output, they don't necessarily pick up on these particular developments from Biscay, keeping more of a southwesterly origin for their trajectory and no discrete lows.

This may of course be a false alarm so at the moment I am going with a level 1 tag although if some maps verify we will definitely be seeing level 2 impacts at least.

Heavy rainfalls over several days will be falling on top of considerable rainfall that hit similar areas in recent days and this needs to be factored into flooding potential.

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munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Where's my apology?? Lol

A stopped clock! You were on about rain anyway lol

kilkenny31

RobertKK wrote: »

Yep, I mean Kilkenny went red warning during Darwin, when all hell was breaking lose, it was too late but warranted.

I know they have to be really sure before issuing red.

I remember that day. I was in college in WIT they closed the college in the middle of the storm so everybody was sent home. At least this storm comes at a time when schools etc are closed and its late in the evening/night so most people should be at home. Darwin could have been a disaster for Kilkenny/Waterford.

mumo3

m17 wrote: »

Storm Ellen out in the Atlantic

Which site are you using to watch it?

m17

Wales this morning

spookwoman

11 utc looking impressive

Comhrá

Siobhan sporting a nice red jacket there on the RTE One o'clock News just now, to emphasise the red warning?

irishrover99

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Where's my apology?? Lol

Haha. I bet your strutting around doing that Conor McGregor walk now.

m17

mumo3 wrote: »

Which site are you using to watch it?

Eumetsat

grebtol2

markjbloggs wrote: »

As sure as night follows day, when a major storm approaches - Shannon radar goes down with "technical faults".

What's the real reason?

Meteorite58

ECM 06Z out, similar to HARMONIE, strongest winds coming ashore between Cork and Waterford showing 160 to 170 km/h and 120 to 130 km/ h overland moving straight up through the country.

More counties in Orange level, Waterford could be Red yet.

Deepening on approach 969hPa and filling slowly inland as it exits the country.

Very heavy rain in the SW, up to 50mm in 24 hrs

m17

endainoz

leahyl wrote: »

Lol you’re a howl, every post of yours always has the worst weather for Cork

That aged well

hawkwing

Comhra wrote: »

Siobhan sporting a nice red jacket there on the RTE One o'clock News just now, to emphasise the red warning?

I thought she was emphasising something else :eek:

leahyl

endainoz wrote: »

That aged well

He’s actually right this time!!!

leahyl

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Where's my apology?? Lol

Lmao, I’m sorry, you’re finally right!

Oneiric 3

For what it's worth, this is what the UK Met have for strongest gusts at Cork Apt and Waterford Apt:

Waterford Airport - 53 knots between 1am and 3am
Cork Airport - 46 knots around midnight.

The UK Met model tends to a conservative one regarding wind speed and gust potential, but often not far off the mark either. We'll see.

Edit: Cork Apt should read '48 knots'.

froog

ICON and GFS using ventusky seem very far apart. which one is more reliable?

HeidiHeidi

Bejubby wrote: »

Here Grace,go to locations and pick the nearest to you,then scroll down.
www.tidetimes.org.uk

Or if you have a smart phone, I have an app Tide Times, which is super easy to use and has tide locations all over the country, and you can save your favourites for even easier access. Give tide times/heights, and also moon information.

HeidiHeidi

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Or if you have a smart phone, I have an app Tide Times, which is super easy to use and has tide locations all over the country, and you can save your favourites for even easier access. Give tide times/heights, and also moon information.

Here's today's tides for an island in Clew Bay

highdef

m17 wrote: »

Storm Ellen out in the Atlantic

Just to note, the big swirl in the mid-Atlantic is not Ellen....that's the parent low. Ellen is only beginning to become visible as it starts development west of Biscay. It will become more evident in a few hours when cyclogenesis becomes apparent.

Gruffalux

m17 wrote: »

Mourne mountains this morning

That is a gorgeous photo. Sorry now but Im breaking all copyright rules - too late.... I have saved it to my phone!!

[Deleted User]

froog wrote: »

ICON and GFS using ventusky seem very far apart. which one is more reliable?

How are Icon and GFS so far away from the other models at only 12 hours. Are they generally this unreliable? I would have thought there would be a tendency to converge as we get closer

HeidiHeidi

m17 wrote: »

Wales this morning

Jesus, that's taking the "shepherd's warning" to extremes :eek:

bnt

Euro4 short range model suggests that it's going to get a bit hairy over the SW and irish Sea early Friday morning:

SweetCaliber

Am I missing something or does it look like Waterford is going to get hit worse than Cork looking at the latest charts?

SEPT 23 1989

m17 wrote: »

Wales this morning

Dublin was the same

munsterlegend

SweetCaliber wrote: »

Am I missing something or does it look like Waterford is going to get hit worse than Cork looking at the latest charts?

Might be updated later. Still a lot of uncertainty.

spookwoman

https://twitter.com/WaterfordCounci/status/1296065070309478400?s=20

SweetCaliber

munsterlegend wrote: »

Might be updated later. Still a lot of uncertainty.

Yeah, just got notification that they are closing the prom in Tramore from 4pm today until further notice. Will be a wild one regardless with high tide.

The Irish Ace

How is the east looking throughout this? Looks like Meath and North Dublin might get hit on the edge of them gusts of wind.