Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

odyssey06

Assetbacked wrote: »

Are the above posts serious?

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

These are your links to our data, they should be bookmarked in your browser.

The first link is updated daily and shows, among other things, numbers in hospital and ICU. It has been low for months at this stage. The second link is our overall case data. P9 of the reports gives the breakdown of hospitalisations and deaths split between the age groups.

Hospitalisation figures show no upward trend alongside the recent rise in cases?
If you are saying the trend of hospitastion and cases is different to May, then please share the figures.

i_surge

Assetbacked wrote: »

Are the above posts serious?

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

These are your links to our data, they should be bookmarked in your browser.

The first link is updated daily and shows, among other things, numbers in hospital and ICU. It has been low for months at this stage. The second link is our overall case data. P9 of the reports gives the breakdown of hospitalisations and deaths split between the age groups.

There are inputs and outputs.

Few cases = few in hospital

Has the relationship between input and output changed? That answer isn't as obvious as it seems.

Assetbacked

robbiezero wrote: »

I'm seeing lots of them out and about.
Mainly in outdoor environments.
Going to sports games etc.

Which is why its such a f**king joke preventing them from doing that. Its one of the few activities they can relatively safely do while meeting people safely and enjoying themselves. As you say, they are avoiding pubs and restaurants and indoor environments.

The reality for all people is that, unless you are extremely vulnerable, the only thing you need to do to to greatly minimise your risk from covid is; eat fresh fruit and vegetables and a predominantly wholefoods, plant based diet generally, don't be overweight, dont drink a lot of alcohol, exercise, sleep enough and drink water. Immunity protection.

Assetbacked

i_surge wrote: »

There are inputs and outputs.

Few cases = few in hospital

Has the relationship between input and output changed? That answer isn't as obvious as it seems.

Well we've had under 30 in hospital as far as I can remember which is June so it is clearly remaining stable despite the spikes in cases.

i_surge

Assetbacked wrote: »

Well we've had under 30 in hospital as far as I can remember which is June so it is clearly remaining stable despite the spikes in cases.

"Spike" is small in the scheme of things.

polesheep

odyssey06 wrote: »

You said:
"So, either it's weakening or the only people it was ever going to hit hard are the very people that we failed to protect."

No I meant for your theory re: the virus weakening.
We'd really need to see what the % of infections of the vulnerable were in April say, leading to hospitalisations.
Versus now.
I don't think the vulnerable were just in nursing homes.

I suggested that the virus is either weakening or has already had its affect on the weakest. I suspect that it is weakening as I see plenty of community involvement among the elderly. I agree with you that all vulnerable in the community need to be accounted for in any research. My concern is that there doesn't appear to any research (that has been made public) into the fact that hospitalisations are not rising in line with infections and I can't help wondering if this is being influenced by the massive investment into a vaccine.

odyssey06

polesheep wrote: »

I suggested that the virus is either weakening or has already had its affect on the weakest. I suspect that it is weakening as I see plenty of community involvement among the elderly. I agree with you that all vulnerable in the community need to be accounted for in any research. My concern is that there doesn't appear to any research (that has been made public) into the fact that hospitalisations are not rising in line with infections and I can't help wondering if this is being influenced by the massive investment into a vaccine.

I think it's a very hard theory to prove i.e. the weakening.
If by that you mean the virus itself genetically in terms of its effects?

You'd need to find a case study of a nursing home somewhere that didn't get infected then but does get infected now. And isn't using better infection control measures than they did.

I think we would see less fatalities because hospital treatments are better.

We are seeing less vulnerable people infected due to measures and behaviour changes.
The cases are in demographics that are less vulnerable.

Are there less hospitalisations per percentage of vulnerable groups infected?
I don't know if that can be dug out from the current figures so that would need to be researched, as you note.

Assetbacked

odyssey06 wrote: »

Hospitalisation figures show no upward trend alongside the recent rise in cases?
If you are saying the trend of hospitastion and cases is different to May, then please share the figures.

It's different as more younger people are being infected and the hospitalisation rate for younger people is pretty low.

Look at the two hospitalisations data charts between 31/05/20 and 20/08/20. I'll extract the relevant data here anyway;

Date - Age Group; Total Cases; Total Hospitalised; Rate %

31/05 - 0-4; 153; 19; 12.42%
20/08 - 0-4; 253; 24; 9.49%

31/05 - 5-14; 309; 17; 5.5%
20/08 - 5-14; 468; 18; 3.85%

31/05 - 15-24; 1824; 72; 3.95%
20/08 - 15-24; 2292; 80; 3.5%

31/05 - 25-34; 4185; 198; 4.73%
20/08 - 25-34; 4782; 205; 4.23%

31/05 - 35-44; 4385; 254; 5.79%
20/08 - 35-44; 4850; 279; 5.75%

31/05 - 45-54; 4476; 440; 9.83%
20/08 - 45-54; 4875; 446; 9.15%

31/05 - 55-64; 3197; 481; 15.05%
20/08 - 55-64; 3401; 504; 14.82%

31/05 - 65-74; 1777; 575; 32.36%
20/08 - 65-74; 1891; 595; 31.46%

i_surge

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's different as more younger people are being infected and the hospitalisation rate for younger people is pretty low.

Look at the two hospitalisations data charts between 31/05/20 and 20/08/20. I'll extract the relevant data here anyway;

Date - Age Group; Total Cases; Total Hospitalised; Rate %

31/05 - 0-4; 153; 19; 12.42%
20/08 - 0-4; 253; 24; 9.49%

31/05 - 5-14; 309; 17; 5.5%
20/08 - 5-14; 468; 18; 3.85%

31/05 - 15-24; 1824; 72; 3.95%
20/08 - 15-24; 2292; 80; 3.5%

31/05 - 25-34; 4185; 198; 4.73%
20/08 - 25-34; 4782; 205; 4.23%

31/05 - 35-44; 4385; 254; 5.79%
20/08 - 35-44; 4850; 279; 5.75%

31/05 - 45-54; 4476; 440; 9.83%
20/08 - 45-54; 4875; 446; 9.15%

31/05 - 55-64; 3197; 481; 15.05%
20/08 - 55-64; 3401; 504; 14.82%

31/05 - 65-74; 1777; 575; 32.36%
20/08 - 65-74; 1891; 595; 31.46%

The rates stayed remarkably steady. My interpretation is not much has changed except the absolute numbers. What do you think?

Of those hospitalised, has the % dying gone down with more medical knowledge?

Assetbacked

i_surge wrote: »

The rates stayed remarkably steady. My interpretation is not much has changed except the absolute numbers. What do you think?

Of those hospitalised, has the % dying gone down with more medical knowledge?

Remarkably steady? I would disagree. If you measure the decline in hospitalisations as a percentage decrease of what the 31st May stats were it looks like a decent drop. One sec...

0-4; 24% reduction.
5-14; 30% reduction.
15-24; 11.4% reduction.
25-34; 10.6% reduction.
35-44; no reduction essentially.
45-54; 6.92% reduction.
55-64; 1.53% reduction.
65-74; 2.78% reduction.

i_surge

Assetbacked wrote: »

Remarkably steady? I would disagree. If you measure the decline in hospitalisations as a percentage decrease of what the 31st May stats were it looks like a decent drop. One sec...

The % hospitalised/age all agree within 1% except 0-4

Very surprised to see ~14% of children are hospitalised assumed it would be negligible, although only the symptomatic would have been identified so hard to know for sure.

Average age in ireland is 38/39 i think, 5-6% of that age group get hospitalised. Not trivial.

Micky 32

i_surge wrote: »

Interested to get some facts too. Has it weakened or not? Or does it just look like it has?

It depends on who you ask. If you ask the doomongers, fearmongers, drama queens, misery merchants etc = “God no it’s not weakening”.

Ask the more level headed smart person and you’ll get “ hmm possibly, not saying it is but it something that should be studied and looked into more”

i_surge

Micky 32 wrote: »

i_surge wrote: »

Interested to get some facts too. Has it weakened or not? /quote]

It depends on who you ask. If you ask the doomongers, fearmongers, drama queens, misery merchants etc = “God no it’s not weakening”.

Ask the more level headed smart person and you’ll get “ hmm possibly, not saying it is but it something that should be studied and looked into more”

It is all about making good decisions with the right info.

If the virus was weakening im sure the army of naysayers would have thrown up a link by now. Im open minded and curious.

Assetbacked

i_surge wrote: »

The % hospitalised/age all agree within 1% except 0-4

Very surprised to see ~14% of children are hospitalised assumed it would be negligible, although only the symptomatic would have been identified so hard to know for sure.

Average age in ireland is 38/39 i think, 5-6% of that age group get hospitalised. Not trivial.

It is trivial. It's 5/6% of reported positive cases and that includes people who were hospitalised for other things and just happened to be tested positive for covid. We know that it is likely that many more have been infected than have been recorded as positive. 5% is 1 in 20 just being hospitalised so even a conservative tripling of the official reported positives would put the rate at 1 in 60 people or 1.67% for hospitalisations.

I don't think the virus is weakening but it is nowhere near as strong as we originally thought. The majority of nursing home cases survived.

At one point, we had 235 clusters in the nursing homes according to Fergal Bowers.
While we can't completely prevent it from sneaking back in, with our contact tracing and testing now compared to April, I doubt we will be seeing 235 clusters again.

As long as we take care of the nursing homes, the death rate will likely be extremely low.

The other issue to ponder over... If nursing homes are locked down or severely restricted, what kind of quality of life will the elderly have in their final hours, days, weeks, months?

Regardless of what we do, people in nursing homes will die. Whether it is Covid, old age or their existing illnesses.

i_surge

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't think the virus is weakening but it is nowhere near as strong as we originally thought. The majority of nursing home cases survived.

At one point, we had 235 clusters in the nursing homes according to Fergal Bowers.
While we can't completely prevent it from sneaking back in, with our contact tracing and testing now compared to April, I doubt we will be seeing 235 clusters again.

As long as we take care of the nursing homes, the death rate will likely be extremely low.

The other issue to ponder over... If nursing homes are locked down or severely restricted, what kind of quality of life will the elderly have in their final hours, days, weeks, months?

Regardless of what we do, people in nursing homes will die. Whether it is Covid, old age or their existing illnesses.

There is more to it than just the old, frail and close to dead already.

The Belly

i_surge wrote: »

There is more to it than just the old, frail and close to dead already.

Well sherlock holmes tell us?

MickeyLeari

i_surge wrote: »

There is more to it than just the old, frail and close to dead already.

Agree. We need to lock down again and shut the border and the airports. The softly softly approach in recent weeks has been a mess. We also need to close down construction, retail, restaurants, food pubs and retail (except food).

Clonmel1000

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Agree. We need to lock down again and shut the border and the airports. The softly softly approach in recent weeks has been a mess. We also need to close down construction, retail, restaurants, food pubs and retail (except food).

And get in a subscription to Netflix don the green jersey and clap. That’ll do it.

_Kaiser_

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Agree. We need to lock down again and shut the border and the airports. The softly softly approach in recent weeks has been a mess. We also need to close down construction, retail, restaurants, food pubs and retail (except food).

No.. no we don't

Aside from the fact it's completely unworkable, all your plan would do is accelerate the damage being caused to the economy, people's jobs, mental health, other medical needs, and numerous other key concerns that have been sidelined by the rush to "lock everything down"

Look at the reality of where we are now. Few seriously sick, even fewer dying. This despite the country being (mostly) reopened since the end of June and even without the magic of masks for most of that period.
All the new cases tell us is someone caught the virus. The numbers show that the vast majority will be fine or my not even realise they had it. As I keep saying, OUTCOME of cases is the key metric that should be looked at.

But let's say we adopt your idea.. How long do we lock up the country for? Till we get to zero? Ok.. what happens when it gets "imported" again when we reopen the airports? Or do we wait until EVERY country gets to zero? How do you propose to pay for this? How do you manage the damage to our export industry and supply chain problems that would result?

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Agree. We need to lock down again and shut the border and the airports. The softly softly approach in recent weeks has been a mess. We also need to close down construction, retail, restaurants, food pubs and retail (except food).

Lol, how long do you think the country can afford to do that for?

gral6

Behaviour people from Kildare is appalling! We need to put more control over them ! They are just spreading this dangerous virus around the country!

_Kaiser_

Just said on the RTE news that the restrictions in Offaly and Laois were lifted with immediate effect this afternoon. I didn't know that. Thought they'd run to Sunday/Monday at midnight as planned.

The Belly

The sh1te show is unraveling.

GocRh

Does anyone know what the latest situation is concerning the green list review?

List was supposed to be reviewed yesterday. No updates at all from the NPHET or DFA.

Has the green list quietly been ignored after all the fanfare a month ago?

Assetbacked

GocRh wrote: »

Does anyone know what the latest situation is concerning the green list review?

List was supposed to be reviewed yesterday. No updates at all from the NPHET or DFA.

Has the green list quietly been ignored after all the fanfare a month ago?

It's been updated I think. According to the DFA website it was updated today. I don't actually know what the changes were though

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/8868e-view-the-covid-19-travel-advice-list/

It's arbitrary anyway as it is only guidance. Personal responsibility is the most important thing.

GocRh

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's been updated I think. According to the DFA website it was updated today. I don't actually know what the changes were though

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/8868e-view-the-covid-19-travel-advice-list/

It's arbitrary anyway as it is only guidance. Personal responsibility is the most important thing.

I've noticed that. No changes at all to the list itself, it still mentions that's the situation as of 4th of August, and Greece is still on the list even though it has more cases per 100k than the UK and Germany.

I've family in Germany and at this point we're seriously considering ignoring the green list. Risk in Germany is much lower and government doesn't appear to be taking the list seriously. There's no logic at all to it. Americans can still enter Ireland for tourism.
Might as well just drop the list as it's beyond useless.

The Belly

What ever side of the covid camp your on one thing is for sure the gov is unfit for purpose.

Plumbthedepths

The Belly wrote: »

What ever side of the covid camp your on one thing is for sure the gov is unfit for purpose.

Agreed the behaviour of the clowns in Clifton has done enormous damage to the 'we are all in this together' narrative.
I'm reminded of George Orwell's Animal Farm. All are equal , except some are more equal.

Ten of Swords

gral6, one week forum ban