Brexit discussion thread XIII (Please read OP before posting)

ambro25

listermint wrote: »

We are but 3 weeks in to Brexit. Do folks reckon we might see more business murmorings and thus maybe public next month. I think we are in a lull phase now were prestocks in last quarter are holding out, but the tangent between logistics companies refusing to come in and the checks going on has to hit them end of this month in some real way.

Are there going to be questions come February when christmas slow down is a memory.

Very much so. I expect the drib-drab of bad news started by Scottish fishermen, and prolonged by pork and other livestock farmers now, to continue by sector, according to criticality of trade movements in and out the UK.

With a real and mass uproar once the ISPM15 issue starts to kicks in. I mentioned it yesterday or the day before: it's as much of a monster lying in wait, as the extra paperwork was on the run-up to 1st Jan. Freight experts reckon it will cause serious border crossing issues for up to 1 in 3 arctics, considering it's completely independent of <whatever> is stacked on the pallet. I haven't seen any today or yesterday, but there were noises of a hauliers strike in the UK (à la fuel protest back in the day) at the weekend, getting organised before long.

That's all real short-term, up to May-June '21. You then factor in business failures or closures and job losses starting in parallel. And the ripple effect (firms closing, causing supplier firms to fail and close, and respective local ecosystems of services).

It has me worried because, far from provoking pitchfork runs at Westminster and Downing Street, populists never do better, than when a national economy is on its arse. It's easier to (continue to-) divide and rule when everyone is angry and increasingly desperate.

Sam Russell

newman10 wrote: »

Chickens starting to roost ??

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/18/uk-launches-inquiry-alleged-corruption-british-virgin-islands

I read that article and wondered if it was about the UK Gov themselves.

$7m on a non-existent airline - did not Grayling invest in a start up ferry company with no ferries with a huge contract to run a ferry service from a port that could not take ferries, and whose terms and conditions were copied from a pizza delivery outfit? Of course, the contract was awarded without competitive tendering. Just like a GBP billion worth of contracts awarded to start up companies with zero experience, and I think one was a sweet wholesaler.

The article ends with:

The commission, with wide-ranging powers to demand evidence, will investigate whether there is information to substantiate claims that corruption, abuse of position and other serious impropriety have taken place in public office in recent years.

The Foreign Office statement added: “The rule of law, local institutions and the people’s faith in their government have been undermined by these allegations.”

Sounds like they are talking about the current Gov.

J Mysterio

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Erasmus is an exchange program.

Are there so many Irish students looking to study abroad that we could take the quantity coming from Europe?

It's not a literal student swap. There is a certain capacity that each EU university can manage, and they take that amount of students, it doesn't entail the same amount must go the opposite way.

Patser

ambro25 wrote: »

Very much so. I expect the drib-drab of bad news started by Scottish fishermen, and prolonged by pork and other livestock farmers now, to continue by sector, according to criticality of trade movements in and out the UK.

With a real and mass uproar once the ISPM15 issue starts to kicks in. I mentioned it yesterday or the day before: it's as much of a monster lying in wait, as the extra paperwork was on the run-up to 1st Jan. Freight experts reckon it will cause serious border crossing issues for up to 1 in 3 arctics, considering it's completely independent of <whatever> is stacked on the pallet. I haven't seen any today or yesterday, but there were noises of a hauliers strike in the UK (à la fuel protest back in the day) at the weekend, getting organised before long.

The drip-drab of bad news from Scottish fishermen, and only 20 trucks in a small but public protest cost the British Exchequer £23 million in additional funding to ease them.

That'll just open the floodgates. Already the meat producers are out with their beal bocht stories of lost/dumped/delayed shipments, they'll be looking for their bailout.

Hauliers have been treated like dogs over the last month, I can imagine their claim will be coming in soon.

Small businesses that have lost significant markets to paperwork and duties will look for for something then.

Whoever can make the headlines now will point to the fishermen saying, look what they got where's ours

ancapailldorcha

Patser wrote: »

The drip-drab of bad news from Scottish fishermen, and only 20 trucks in a small but public protest cost the British Exchequer £23 million in additional funding to ease them.

That'll just open the floodgates. Already the meat producers are out with their beal bocht stories of lost/dumped/delayed shipments, they'll be looking for their bailout.

Hauliers have been treated like dogs over the last month, I can imagine their claim will be coming in soon.

Small businesses that have lost significant markets to paperwork and duties will look for for something then.

Whoever can make the headlines now will point to the fishermen saying, look what they got where's ours

The problem with outsourcing blame to Brussels is that when you can't use that whataboutery tactic, they come to you instead.

The glue holding the Brexit coalition together has fallen apart. We're likely to see a lot more blame levelled at the government. It's a few decades too late but better that than never I suppose.

BonnieSituation

yagan wrote: »

Plus we don't know how WFH will shape third level from home. Certainly the sciences will still need attendance, but so many courses in business and humanities can be completed remotely now.

There's supposedly been a massive boom in online language tutoring during these lockdowns which may provide a far more focused immersive facetime for language learners.

I won't be surprised if the free Eurorail travel evolves to cover cultural immersion for all young EU citizens, kinda of like a non university erasmus.

Also Erasmus+ now includes Australia, Canada and NZ so we won't be the only option for those wanting an English language environment.

One thing is certain though we'll definitely be getting more yanks for who Irish international fees can still be cheaper than domestic fees in the USA, with the added bonus of potentially getting a residency foothold in the EU.

As someone who has been completing a HDip online and is about to start a masters in the next week, both of which would have been onsite, I wouldn't wish a full-time undergraduate degree online on my own worst enemy.

It's a diabolical way to learn. The onsite interaction is sorely missed.

A bit of inter-railing will not come close to replacing what Erasmus has given millions over the decades!

An Ciarraioch

A bit of EU housekeeping - Sefcovic, who currently co-chairs the Joint Committee on the NI Protocol, will effectively take over from Barnier once the new Partnership Council replaces the EU Task Force, but the Frenchman will act as Special Advisor to van der Leyen for now:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_160

An Ciarraioch

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The problem with outsourcing blame to Brussels is that when you can't use that whataboutery tactic, they come to you instead.

The glue holding the Brexit coalition together has fallen apart. We're likely to see a lot more blame levelled at the government. It's a few decades too late but better that than never I suppose.

Interesting developments in Wales, as the pro-independence parties are up in both lists, and there appears to be a three-way dynamic developing there between that, devolution and abolition:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351303022652100614

Brussels Sprout

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting developments in Wales, as the pro-independence parties are up in both lists, and there appears to be a three-way dynamic developing there between that, devolution and abolition:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351303022652100614

Who else, apart from PC, are pro-independence?

Roanmore

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting developments in Wales, as the pro-independence parties are up in both lists, and there appears to be a three-way dynamic developing there between that, devolution and abolition:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351303022652100614

Looks like Farage's party are eating in to Labour support? Or maybe it's the undecideds?

bob mcbob

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The problem with outsourcing blame to Brussels is that when you can't use that whataboutery tactic, they come to you instead.

The glue holding the Brexit coalition together has fallen apart. We're likely to see a lot more blame levelled at the government. It's a few decades too late but better that than never I suppose.

And so it begins - the voters who wanted to "take back control" are about to find out that they have control and have handed it to right wing politicians who only ever wanted to water down EU rules.

It seems that workers rights are first up. Turkeys voting for Christmas

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/19/business-secretary-confirms-post-brexit-review-uk-workers-rights

Charles Babbage

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Erasmus is an exchange program.

Are there so many Irish students looking to study abroad that we could take the quantity coming from Europe?

That is why they were cute enough to offer the NI students the opportunity to take part in Erasmus, it reduces the imbalance and doesn't really cost as a consequence.

An Ciarraioch

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Who else, apart from PC, are pro-independence?

Welsh Greens.

J Mysterio

Irish embassy not so subtley shading the UK out of the picture and putting their stamp on this route map.

https://twitter.com/IrlEmbParis/status/1351556615665819648?s=20

Seth Brundle

bob mcbob wrote: »

And so it begins - the voters who wanted to "take back control" are about to find out that they have control and have handed it to right wing politicians who only ever wanted to water down EU rules.

It seems that workers rights are first up. Turkeys voting for Christmas

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/19/business-secretary-confirms-post-brexit-review-uk-workers-rights

Would a downward change in worker's rights affect the EU-UK Trade Agreement?

ancapailldorcha

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Would a downward change in worker's rights affect the EU-UK Trade Agreement?

Almost certainly. The EU want to maintain a level-playing field so that the UK can't just slash protections and regulations to allow corporations to dump into the single market.

Capt'n Midnight

Sam Russell wrote: »

$7m on a non-existent airline - did not Grayling invest in a start up ferry company with no ferries with a huge contract to run a ferry service from a port that could not take ferries, and whose terms and conditions were copied from a pizza delivery outfit?

The ferry thing was messed up so badly they ended up paying compo to several ferry companies and Eurotunnel who aren't even allowed to own ferries.

Imreoir2

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

As usual with The Express, when you read down through the article it turns out to be a nothingburger. The Irish government has made a "technical query" wrt country of origin rules. That's it. Nothing more. Apart from M&S, supermarkets are saying that there isn't any major problem in stocking their shelves.

It's a rag. It's headlines are designed to stir up anger. Every single headline. It's a pathetic piece of crap. I often wonder how its 'journalists' can look themselves in the mirror.

They don't write the headlines. As you said, the work of the journalists tends to be decent enough. The problem is the clown sticking in mad headlines that have only the slightest passing relevance to the articles they sit atop.

The headlines shift coppies though, and thats all that matters at the end of the day.

Capt'n Midnight

yagan wrote: »

Excellent documentary called The Spiders Web: Britain's Second Empire about how Britain has been diverting tax to offshore havens like in the Caymans and Channel isles since the end of empire.

UK dependencies are responsible for over a third of all tax avoidance

Taxation: EU list of non-cooperative jurisdictions
Be interesting to see how the list changes.

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No, Britain is out of Erasmus. Which means that if you are an Erasmus student who wants to study in an English speaking country in the EU then you have only one simple option. Which is very good news for Irish universities and local economies. There is the Turing alternative but that has yet to be seen to be working.

Erasmus made IIRC £245m a year for the UK, while Turing will cost £100m

It remains to be seen how the selection process will go and if there could be any question of it being used for political purposes.

Imreoir2

listermint wrote: »

We are but 3 weeks in to Brexit. Do folks reckon we might see more business murmorings and thus maybe public next month. I think we are in a lull phase now were prestocks in last quarter are holding out, but the tangent between logistics companies refusing to come in and the checks going on has to hit them end of this month in some real way.

Are there going to be questions come February when christmas slow down is a memory.

It's going to be a slow grind I think, but the background noise will probably slowly build as more and more businesses fail or 'rationalise'. We will probably hear a few extra squeals when the derrogations lapse after 3 and 6 months.

There won't be a sudden bang at any point though, just gradual misery.

Time will tell if the UK can tough it out and current arrangements can form a stable new status quo (once they get over the shock of getting what they asked for).

They might come to decide they don't really like Brexit anymore when they have to live with her for a while. Lots of new relationships sour when you actually try to live with each other after all. They might yet decide to call up the ex to see if they can patch things up.

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting developments in Wales, as the pro-independence parties are up in both lists, and there appears to be a three-way dynamic developing there between that, devolution and abolition:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1351303022652100614

Do you think Farage is just trolling now?
REFUK, he wants to REFUK the country. Once wasn't enough... :pac:

An Ciarraioch

For all the worries we had about Irish cheddar on UK shelves, it seems British cheese shipments are impossible in much of the EU, including Ireland!

https://twitter.com/DOCasBAC/status/1351585613179453446

L1011

That could be an issue, as some Irish cheese - mainly for the cheaper markets - its actually shipped to the UK to be packaged due to a lack of packaging capacity here.

gaming_needs90

L1011 wrote: »

That could be an issue, as some Irish cheese - mainly for the cheaper markets - its actually shipped to the UK to be packaged due to a lack of packaging capacity here.

.... Yet

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

For all the worries we had about Irish cheddar on UK shelves, it seems British cheese shipments are impossible in much of the EU, including Ireland!

https://twitter.com/DOCasBAC/status/1351585613179453446

One of the comments, picking up on the numerous differences between the individual countries: "So EU countries can make their own rules sort of like they have sovereignty or summit ?" Not a Brexiter, I'm guessing! :pac:

It'll be interesting to see how long the GB government can avoid dealing with this situation before it becomes toxic for them. As anyone reading this thread would know, these difficulties were always going to be a problem if the Tories did their daft version of Brexit, so it's no surprise at all that GB food exports and exporters have hit an invisible non-tariff barrier.

But what next? Will the government start bailing out domestic producers-for-export? If so, how long can they keep it up, and how will the producers-for-home-consumption feel about their competition being subsidised? And if not, how far down the road of rotten food, bankruptcies and loss of international market share can the Tories go before they seek SPS alignment (and wave goodbye to cheap American food).

Conspiracy theorising: could it be that a certain strain of Tory is waiting for the chance to buy swathes of farmland and associated agri-businesses at discount prices?

amacca

CelticRambler wrote: »

Conspiracy theorising: could it be that a certain strain of Tory is waiting for the chance to buy swathes of farmland and associated agri-businesses at discount prices?

They dont seem that smart tbh....or that into forward planning.

Capt'n Midnight

Hurrache wrote: »

This is the same minister who has been saying that the issues are not Brexit related, but they're because of Covid, implying there is actually no underlying problem with trade. The 'permanent solution' will kick in March at the end of the current grace period.
twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1351451269299384321

In other completely unrelated to Brexit related car industry news

Ineos: Scrapped Bridgend 4x4 plant plans 'not down to Brexit'

Ineo's suspension of building a Bridgend plant in favour of a "ready-made factory" in France was a "simple business decision", Tom Crotty said.

Vauxhall: Future of Ellesmere Port hangs in the balance

He said a decision would be made in the next few weeks, and depend on the UK government's support of the car sector.
...
The future of the Ellesmere Port plant is far from certain. It currently builds an old model of the Vauxhall Astra, due to be superseded by a new version next year.

That new model will be built in two plants - one of them at Ruesselsheim, in Germany. The parent company had previously said it hoped to make it in Ellesmere Port as well.

Yip death by 1,000 cuts across the industry. Existing UK car production lines will keep going, because of inertia and Brexit costs aren't as big as moving production.

But UK plants will have to compete with EU and Turkish plants for all new models.


Thankfully perhaps there is a global shortage of certain electrical components and a reduction in demand so UK plants aren't at an obvious disadvantage right now.

BlitzKrieg

CelticRambler wrote: »

Conspiracy theorising: could it be that a certain strain of Tory is waiting for the chance to buy swathes of farmland and associated agri-businesses at discount prices?

Thats why Dyson backed Brexit

https://whoownsengland.org/2017/09/19/why-is-james-dyson-hoovering-up-land/

Peregrinus

Roanmore wrote: »

Looks like Farage's party are eating in to Labour support? Or maybe it's the undecideds?

No. The percentage change is with respect to the previous YouGov poll in October 2020. But the fact that REFUK is shown as up 5% is an artefact of the fact that it has changed its name. In October 2020 it was still known as the Brexit Party and its support was — 5%. Sombeody's spreadsheet is treating REFUK as a new entrant, rather than measuring it against the support it garnered when it was still called the Brexit Party. In reality, support for Farage hasn't moved at all.

Most of Labour's 4% loss has likely gone to the Greens (up 3%) and Plaid (up 2%).