Opening of "No-Food" pubs pushed out again

fin12

hynesie08 wrote: »

It's amazing how we convince all these other countries to play along by pretending the "deadly variants" are there first, they even talk about it in their news and all...... Just so the pubs here stay shut........

That's some high level international espionage there.

In case you haven’t noticed there’s a lot more shut down then pubs.

HeidiHeidi

fin12 wrote: »

In case you haven’t noticed there’s a lot more shut down then pubs.

What's that got to do with the point of the post though?

Unless it reveals an even bigger conspiracy :eek:

fin12

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

What's that got to do with the point of the post though?

Unless it reveals an even bigger conspiracy :eek:

Because last time I checked lockdown affects more than just the pubs. And the Irish government don’t need any help from any country outside to come up with an excuse to extend lockdowns. The variants exists, the Brazilian hasn’t been confirmed here yet so who’s to say it won’t be confirmed here on March the 4th.

Tazz T

fin12 wrote: »

Because last time I checked lockdown affects more than just the pubs. And the Irish government don’t need any help from any country outside to come up with an excuse to extend lockdowns. The variants exists, the Brazilian hasn’t been confirmed here yet so who’s to say it won’t be confirmed here on March the 4th.

No doubt it'll be confirmed in copperface jacks over the weekend

rn

Opening up month by month is unrealistic. And certainly getting out of any restrictions this year is a pipe dream.

There's two facts that support that. First we are not securing delivery of vaccines fast enough, combine with a 4 week lead time after vaccination to be protected (it'll be at least 4 weeks after last person in a group is vaccinated when we can lift restrictions.

The second fact is unknown efficacy of vaccines on new strains. This won't be known for a few years, so we'll need to stay in level 1 in case we've to ramp up levels again to protect health services and save lives. Remember the reason we're in restrictions is to help reduce spread of virus so the levels of seriously sick people doesn't overwhelm health resources.

A sustained level 2 July to October is realistic. I could forsee tighter restrictions again next winter as covid19 transmission goes up in colder weather.

It's not the raw daily numbers that decide lockdown levels, but a combination of hospital admissions and in particular pressure on icu beds. These take weeks or months to clear.

El_Duderino 09

rn wrote: »

Opening up month by month is unrealistic. And certainly getting out of any restrictions this year is a pipe dream.

There's two facts that support that. First we are not securing delivery of vaccines fast enough, combine with a 4 week lead time after vaccination to be protected (it'll be at least 4 weeks after last person in a group is vaccinated when we can lift restrictions.

The second fact is unknown efficacy of vaccines on new strains. This won't be known for a few years, so we'll need to stay in level 1 in case we've to ramp up levels again to protect health services and save lives. Remember the reason we're in restrictions is to help reduce spread of virus so the levels of seriously sick people doesn't overwhelm health resources.

A sustained level 2 July to October is realistic. I could forsee tighter restrictions again next winter as covid19 transmission goes up in colder weather.

It's not the raw daily numbers that decide lockdown levels, but a combination of hospital admissions and in particular pressure on icu beds. These take weeks or months to clear.

That won't be a popular post in this thread, but it's probably about right.

I'd argue that they don't have to wait a month after the last person is vaccinated, to open up. They could just advise those people to shield or take additional precautions for the month until they're fully protected.

I had hoped that, by now, we would have steady supply of the vaccine and the vaccine administration programme would be ramped up. With that info we could have made a good estimate of when we would have rolled out the vaccine and long term prospects. But that hasn't happened. The possibility of lockdowns or tightening restrictions into next winter are still the most likely outcome at this stage. Maybe the situation will change dramatically and the rollout will go speedily, but it's hard to see at this stage.

At this stage, we can't know where hospitality will fit into that

Dickie10

rn wrote: »

Opening up month by month is unrealistic. And certainly getting out of any restrictions this year is a pipe dream.

There's two facts that support that. First we are not securing delivery of vaccines fast enough, combine with a 4 week lead time after vaccination to be protected (it'll be at least 4 weeks after last person in a group is vaccinated when we can lift restrictions.

The second fact is unknown efficacy of vaccines on new strains. This won't be known for a few years, so we'll need to stay in level 1 in case we've to ramp up levels again to protect health services and save lives. Remember the reason we're in restrictions is to help reduce spread of virus so the levels of seriously sick people doesn't overwhelm health resources.

A sustained level 2 July to October is realistic. I could forsee tighter restrictions again next winter as covid19 transmission goes up in colder weather.

It's not the raw daily numbers that decide lockdown levels, but a combination of hospital admissions and in particular pressure on icu beds. These take weeks or months to clear.

No sorry dont agree, i would see June /July OUT OF LEVEL 3

ShyMets

Deleted User wrote: »

After what unfolded after a limited opening for xmas,i cant see any rationale behind rushing the opening?


Id imagine myself that from.augest bank holiday weekend,it'll reopen alright

A lot will depend on the vaccine rollout. I'd be confident of outdoor dining by early Summer but I think indoor dining/wet pubs will have to wait until late summer

PommieBast

ShyMets wrote: »

A lot will depend on the vaccine rollout. I'd be confident of outdoor dining by early Summer but I think indoor dining/wet pubs will have to wait until late summer

Not looking hopeful at the moment. The vaccine calculator currently estimates the earliest I will get my doses is summer 2022..

stephenjmcd

PommieBast wrote: »

Not looking hopeful at the moment. The vaccine calculator currently estimates the earliest I will get my doses is summer 2022..

That thing has already been debunked as a load of crap. Its completely useless

hynesie08

PommieBast wrote: »

Not looking hopeful at the moment. The vaccine calculator currently estimates the earliest I will get my doses is summer 2022..

I refuse to believe anyone is naive enough to believe that calculator is accurate.

PommieBast

stephenjmcd wrote: »

That thing has already been debunked as a load of crap. Its completely useless

It accurately predicted when my father got his jab.

CIARAN_BOYLE

PommieBast wrote: »

It accurately predicted when my father got his jab.

It does one thing well.

If you feed in the correct number of doses received each week ita will tell you when you will be vaccinated. It assumed a static number of doses received each week.

So 45k a week is the default. But starting next week there will be 57k AZ doses a week. That's not counted at all. Neither is growth in deliveries.

El_Duderino 09

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

It does one thing well.

If you feed in the correct number of doses received each week ita will tell you when you will be vaccinated. It assumed a static number of doses received each week.

So 45k a week is the default. But starting next week there will be 57k AZ doses a week. That's not counted at all. Neither is growth in deliveries.

So at this stage, we just don't know. Anyone telling you they do know, is either lying you you (and themselves) or is just not informed on the actual state of affairs.

Some people are very uncomfortable with saying, "I don't know", so they make up a narrative to suit themselves. But the truth is we just don't know how it will work out or when things will change at the moment.

PommieBast

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Some people are very uncomfortable with saying, "I don't know", so they make up a narrative to suit themselves. But the truth is we just don't know how it will work out or when things will change at the moment.

With the absence of better information my assumption is things staying the same. With all the rows of the last week over vaccine supply I have stopped paying attention to what the promised/planned/hoped-for vaccination rate is and instead look at the actual rates.

El_Duderino 09

PommieBast wrote: »

With the absence of better information my assumption is things staying the same. With all the rows of the last week over vaccine supply I have stopped paying attention to what the promised/planned/hoped-for vaccination rate is and instead look at the actual rates.

I think we can assume the supply will pick up over time and we can administer the vaccine at a greater rate than we currently are. But we just don’t know how or when the supply will increase or what’s the maximum they could administer per day. Lots of unknowns unfortunately.

I can’t fault you for just looking at the current numbers. But hopefully the supply and administration will pick up over the next couple of months.

fin12

Not everyone has to get the vaccine isn’t that right? If 80% of the population is vaccinated by the time they get to u, would u not have to take it then?

El_Duderino 09

fin12 wrote: »

Not everyone has to get the vaccine isn’t that right? If 80% of the population is vaccinated by the time they get to u, would u not have to take it then?

This is a fair question and I expect it will become a bigger issue as more and more people are vaccinated. The anti vaxxers and the "I'm not anti-vaccination, but..." crew, have been quiet in the last few weeks, but i expect them to throw a spanner in the works as more people get the vaccine. "But shur, if everyone else gets the vaccine then there's no point me getting it too..."

Also, be careful when they say "xx percent" because often they're only referring to the adult population. So 70% of the adult population is only a little over 55% of the overall population. 70% of the adult population vaccinated by the end of September sounds great but it's actually only about 55% of the overall population and it doesn't confer herd immunity.

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

Staying in lockdown despite having two doses of the vaccine is really REALLY starting to grind my fücking gears now.

El_Duderino 09

Hunky Monster wrote: »

Staying in lockdown despite having two doses of the vaccine is really REALLY starting to grind my fücking gears now.

Depends on why you're in lockdown. Are you in lockdown to protect yourself and don't give a fcuk about transmitting the virus to others?
Or are you staying in lockdown to prevent the spread to other people until they get vaccinated too?

PommieBast

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

This is a fair question and I expect it will become a bigger issue as more and more people are vaccinated. The anti vaxxers and the "I'm not anti-vaccination, but..." crew, have been quiet in the last few weeks, but i expect them to throw a spanner in the works as more people get the vaccine. "But shur, if everyone else gets the vaccine then there's no point me getting it too..."

With the way the mutations are going I think herd immunity will end up needing something like 90-95%. At the moment I am seriously wondering whether vaccination should simply be made mandatory.

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Depends on why you're in lockdown. Are you in lockdown to protect yourself and don't give a fcuk about transmitting the virus to others?
Or are you staying in lockdown to prevent the spread to other people until they get vaccinated too?

I literally work in a covid ward every day so yeah it's safe to say I give a ****.

El_Duderino 09

Hunky Monster wrote: »

I literally work in a covid ward every day so yeah it's safe to say I give a ****.

If you say so.

Then what is it that has frustrated you about having been vaccinated?

fin12

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

This is a fair question and I expect it will become a bigger issue as more and more people are vaccinated. The anti vaxxers and the "I'm not anti-vaccination, but..." crew, have been quiet in the last few weeks, but i expect them to throw a spanner in the works as more people get the vaccine. "But shur, if everyone else gets the vaccine then there's no point me getting it too..."

Also, be careful when they say "xx percent" because often they're only referring to the adult population. So 70% of the adult population is only a little over 55% of the overall population. 70% of the adult population vaccinated by the end of September sounds great but it's actually only about 55% of the overall population and it doesn't confer herd immunity.

I think it’s unfair to label anyone questioning whether to take this vaccine or not as an anti vaxxers. Plenty of these people would have got plenty other vaccinations in the past and happy too. I’m way down the list so I’m not sure whether I’ll take it or not but I’ve taken plenty other vaccines in the past.

El_Duderino 09

fin12 wrote: »

I think it’s unfair to label anyone questioning whether to take this vaccine or not as an anti vaxxers. Plenty of these people would have got plenty other vaccinations in the past and happy too. I’m way down the list so I’m not sure whether I’ll take it or not but I’ve taken plenty other vaccines in the past.

Sure. Call them whatever you want. They’ll be part of the problem if they decide not to get the vaccine - in the very same way as anti-vaxxers will be part of the problem. It’s a distinction without a difference regarding the covid situation.

Shane Driscoll

Be grand once the elderly are vaccinated. Once the old timers are safe we should reopen the gaff.

Shane Driscoll

fin12 wrote: »

Not everyone has to get the vaccine isn’t that right? If 80% of the population is vaccinated by the time they get to u, would u not have to take it then?

Not like the government can make you take it. Why would you risk a vaccine when you don't need it? I won't be taking it.

PTH2009

Have a feeling they will go for 100% outdoor dining for when Hospitality reopens with restrictive hours and mandatory meals

'it's too dangerous to have indoor dining esp with new variants and the fact the virus is still rampant' or some other waffle to try and justify the decision

El_Duderino 09

fin12 wrote: »

I think it’s unfair to label anyone questioning whether to take this vaccine or not as an anti vaxxers. Plenty of these people would have got plenty other vaccinations in the past and happy too. I’m way down the list so I’m not sure whether I’ll take it or not but I’ve taken plenty other vaccines in the past.

Shane Driscoll wrote: »

Not like the government can make you take it. Why would you risk a vaccine when you don't need it? I won't be taking it.

Are you people who are fine with the lockdown and don’t mind if it takes longer than necessary to get back to normal?

Everyone taking the vaccine is one path to getting back towards normal as quickly as possible. I’ve been accused of being a “forever lockdown” advocate (I’m not, obviously) but here are two posters who are advocating for behaviour that would actually prolong the restrictions...

Shane Driscoll

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Are you people who are fine with the lockdown and don’t mind if it takes longer than necessary to get back to normal?

Everyone taking the vaccine is one path to getting back towards normal as quickly as possible. I’ve been accused of being a “forever lockdown” advocate (I’m not, obviously) but here are two posters who are advocating for behaviour that would actually prolong the restrictions...

Sure I want the lockdown over and done with, same as anyone but I won't be taking the vaccine as I'm not at risk. Get the elderly sorted because they're the only ones really at risk and then get the country going again