Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Villa05

Graham wrote:

Pretty weak article from the IT. Their comparisons are meaningless without knowing the type/size of properties being compared and how things like land costs have been calculated.

Useful information to tease out on a discussion board

No harm either to let tax paying first time buyers know that the state has options like building their own houses at considerable discount to the market, thus increasing supply
Or
Use FTB income tax to compete against them in purchasing homes on the market, driving up price and reducing supply

Cyrus

Reversal wrote: »

I didn't say it was a crash. I'm just showing how at odds the "anecdotes" from the usual suspects are with the facts.

If they want to deal in anecdotes. I know two people who have bought in Dublin recently. Both under asking. One by 70K. In the "competitive" 450-550k bracket. So the experiences of those who come to boards to post them are at odds with what I've heard from people actually buying ATM, and the data.

So you have different anecdotes that makes them more valid ?

Literally no one has been hyping the market in here but several posters are predicting huge price crashes which haven’t materialised, yet at least. The most vocal of whom reckons there will be a 75 percent correction .

I’m not quite sure what you think you have read in here to be honest .

And you are being selective fingal is up 2.1 percent for example . How do you explain that ?

Cantstandsya

Cyrus wrote: »

So you have different anecdotes that makes them more valid ?

Literally no one has been hyping the market in here but several posters are predicting huge price crashes which haven’t materialised, yet at least. The most vocal of whom reckons there will be a 75 percent correction .

I’m not quite sure what you think you have read in here to be honest .

And you are being selective fingal is up 2.1 percent for example . How do you explain that ?

Being selective by using the broad trend instead of one particular area?

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Useful information to tease out on a discussion board

No harm either to let tax paying first time buyers know that the state has options like building their own houses at considerable discount to the market, thus increasing supply
Or
Use FTB income tax to compete against them in purchasing homes on the market, driving up price and reducing supply

Any harm in tax payer money being wasted on large scale construction projects which the state has shown is unable to deliver? If only it were as simple as the bombers and other socialists make out.

Pelezico

Reversal wrote: »

So anecdotes from strangers on the internet are of more statistical value than the data published by the CSO
Got it.

Dublin city prices are down over 4% this year. That is a fact. Only on this thread could that be ignored.

Such comments are not ignored. They are strongly discouraged. The market is weaker generally with few sales.The big correction should come next year. I would not be surprised by falls of ten percent.

The vaccine rollout will probably be slow and the expected economic recovery may be tepid.

One US disese control expert on CNN predicted a final death toll of 500000 in America with local and statewide lockdowns going on for the next year even with a vaccine.

combat14

Cyrus wrote: »

I’d imagine that goes for every eu member state no ?

i guess if we are comparing countries with approx 250 billion in debt (+interest) and 2 million tax payers to repay the bill ..

Darc19

There was a post a while ago about property price register and how far behind the curve they are.

Not so, I purchased a small investment property on 6th Oct. Paperwork completed 9th Nov. Details are on ppr today.

Not all legals are done in 5 weeks, but the only time lag is how long legals take.

Cyrus

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Being selective by using the broad trend instead of one particular area?

Broad trend ? He picked one area as well !

Cyrus

combat14 wrote: »

i guess if we are comparing countries with approx 250 billion in debt (+interest) and 2 million tax payers to repay the bill ..

They referred to France Belgium and Spain amongst others but you read what you want to read

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

They referred to France Belgium and Spain amongst others but you read what you want to read

Not sure what point you are making. However, the fact that other countries are in similar position makes things worse for us.

I expect property taxes to increase annually by inflation busting percentages as progressive governments milk every drop of money they can get their hands on.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Not sure what point you are making. However, thefact that other countries are in similar position makes things worse for us.

I expect property taxes to increase annually as progressive government to milk every drop they can get.

The point I’m making doesn’t require explanation I wouldn’t have thought .

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

I expect property taxes to increase annually as progressive government to milk every drop they can get.

Bad news for you then.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

Any harm in tax payer money being wasted on large scale construction projects which the state has shown is unable to deliver? .

The Irish Times article suggests the opposite. Besides, building houses is not that terribly complex, humans have been doing it for thousands of years.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

The Irish Times article suggests the opposite. Besides, building houses is not that terribly complex, humans have been doing it for thousands of years.

I don’t doubt the numbers but they are not on a large scale as local authorities are not building large numbers of houses/apartments. How will they manage if they try to scale up to 10k-20k units per year. That would have to be done over a period of time, which it should be. They can’t do nothing during that period so have to turn to private sector.... also I would think large building projects are complex by definition.
I think we are in agreement on what should happen but the question is how long it will take local authorities to be able to do it at the scale required.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

How will they manage if they try to scale up to 10k-20k units per year.

There’s less than 70,000 households on the social housing waiting list. Most already have a home (rented in private market).

There will never be a need ever for a scaling up to that level of social housing build.

brisan

Sweet.Science wrote: »

They've been trying to sell it since September 2019. It was actually listed at 395k back then. Then 369k by the same estate agent earlier this year. Now 365k by the new one.

Will keep an eye though. I'm interested now.

I think I know the property
I grew up in Carndonagh and our first house was in Howth view ( without the sloping drive )
To me it seems overpriced
A show house standard house went in Carndonagh for 335 last summer , fabulous house for whoever got it

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

There’s less than 70,000 households on the social housing waiting list. Most already have a home (rented in private market).

There will never be a need ever for a scaling up to that level of social housing build.

Why build any? You said prices will fall 75% so much more cost efficient to wait and buy them at far below build cost. Also you said there are so many vacant properties. So which is it?

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Why build any? You said prices will fall 75% so much more cost efficient to wait and buy them at far below build cost. Also you said there are so many vacant properties. So which is it?

I suppose my point was that the level of social housing required to resolve the housing waiting list problem isn't as large as many commentators make out.

In relation to the 75% over the next few years, that would be based upon my assumption that the demand isn't as high as many commentators believe and interest rates rising to c. 5% over the next couple of years.

Both are assumptions but the interest rate rise may happen much sooner than many commentators believe. Yesterday, in the Irish Times, Martin Wolf (columnist for the FT) gave some credence to two economists who believe inflation will hit anywhere between 5% and 10% next year and the article was on how would the central banks respond to such a rise and how would countries and companies handle the adverse impact of such a rise.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/why-inflation-could-be-on-the-way-back-1.4412554

fliball123

Reversal wrote: »

So anecdotes from strangers on the internet are of more statistical value than the data published by the CSO
Got it.

Dublin city prices are down over 4% this year. That is a fact. Only on this thread could that be ignored.

Why are you picking just Dublin city??

Prices in all of Dublin are houses are down about 1.6% and apartments down 0.6% year on year hardly the crash people on here are looking for or expecting. While outside of Dublin house prices are up .2% and apartments 0.4%. So does that mean I can take the rest of the country excluding Dublin and say prices have risen by .2/.4% .... Talk about picking a subset of a subset of a statistic to try and blow smoke up peoples a$$es ..

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexseptember2020/

Sweet.Science

brisan wrote: »

I think I know the property
I grew up in Carndonagh and our first house was in Howth view ( without the sloping drive )
To me it seems overpriced
A show house standard house went in Carndonagh for 335 last summer , fabulous house for whoever got it

Have been looking at Howth View and Cardonagh. Howth View i'm unsure as the house isn't that much bigger than the one im selling so may overpriced. Cardonagh is lovely but may be outside walking distance to the creche. My partner doesn't drive

fliball123

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Have been looking at Howth View and Cardonagh. Howth View i'm unsure as the house isn't that much bigger than the one im selling so may overpriced. Cardonagh is lovely but may be outside walking distance to the creche. My partner doesn't drive

There is a house in New brook ave 285k needs a bit of modernization but I know that road and area very well. The houses on that road are a solid build I reckon if you threw 20/30k in there you would have a good space and close to everything . primary school around the corner if you have a nipper in creche, The Grange (secondary school) a short walk through Donaghmede park, Train station about a 10 minute walk. Shopping center literally on your door step. 29A bus stop just beyond the shops. Father Collins park just up the way for walks, picnics, footy. Swimming pool in the sports and leisure complex not to far either

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

I suppose my point was that the level of social housing required to resolve the housing waiting list problem isn't as large as many commentators make out.

In relation to the 75% over the next few years, that would be based upon my assumption that the demand isn't as high as many commentators believe and interest rates rising to c. 5% over the next couple of years.

Both are assumptions but the interest rate rise may happen much sooner than many commentators believe. Yesterday, in the Irish Times, Martin Wolf (columnist for the FT) gave some credence to two economists who believe inflation will hit anywhere between 5% and 10% next year and the article was on how would the central banks respond to such a rise and how would countries and companies handle the adverse impact of such a rise.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/why-inflation-could-be-on-the-way-back-1.4412554

You all over the place, inflation and house prices dropping 75% as the robot in Lost in Space used to say ''dose not compute''

75% fall and inflation means a house would be bought for a bit with a years wages in such a situation. Inflation actually would push the price of new builds as wages and materials rise in prices. Will inflation increase, I believe so, there is too much savings and demand for consumables is increasing. On such a situation if interest remain low on savings consumers would start spending as money devalues and prices rise, that new bathroom would become a priority and that extension. It would then make sense to carry out insulation and energy efficiency projects on houses as pay back times would decrease.However wages would rise as well. This would mean that if you got on the housing ladder inflation would soften the repayments in 5-10years

Demand for social and affordable housing is increasing. It would continue to increase and in a. Inflation eara Government would be under more pressure to build and supply housing as builders and developers struggle with inflation

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

You all over the place, inflation and house prices dropping 75% as the robot in Lost in Space used to say ''dose not compute''

75% fall and inflation means a house would be bought for a bit with a years wages in such a situation. Inflation actually would push the price of new builds as wages and materials rise in prices. Will inflation increase, I believe so, there is too much savings and demand for consumables is increasing. On such a situation if interest remain low on savings consumers would start spending as money devalues and prices rise, that new bathroom would become a priority and that extension. It would then make sense to carry out insulation and energy efficiency projects on houses as pay back times would decrease.However wages would rise as well. This would mean that if you got on the housing ladder inflation would soften the repayments in 5-10years

Demand for social and affordable housing is increasing. It would continue to increase and in a. Inflation eara Government would be under more pressure to build and supply housing as builders and developers struggle with inflation

I don't believe wages would rise much in Ireland in an era of high inflation. We're very reliant on multinationals and we already have a relatively high wage rate. If wage rises matched the inflation levels those two economists predict, then these multinationals may very seriously consider moving to lower wage countries in the EU. We have already seen how fast they can move employees from the office in relation to WFH. And, we've already seen how quickly they can move money in and out of the country.

And, that's assuming the upcoming OECD global tax reforms go in our favour.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't believe wages would rise much in Ireland in an era of high inflation.

of course they would, to think otherwise is foolish.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

of course they would, to think otherwise is foolish.

Higher inflation can only result in higher wages in a closed economy. In the short-term wages may rise, but in the medium to longer term they will just reduce their headcount and move to lower cost EU countries.

We're in a global economy where companies can move to and operate from anywhere. Even the companies that wished to stay, would need to compete with companies that made the shift to e.g. eastern europe and would have a lower cost base.

I think that's the primary reason why real wages haven't increased much in the USA for the past 30 years.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Higher inflation can only result in higher wages in a closed economy. In the short-term wages may rise, but in the medium to longer term they will just reduce their headcount and move to lower cost EU countries.

We're in a global economy where companies can move to and operate from anywhere. Even the companies that wished to stay, would need to compete with companies that made the shift to e.g. eastern europe and would have a lower cost base.

I think that's the primary reason why real wages haven't increased much in the USA for the past 30 years.

Yes we are in a global ecconomy and when the globe looks for a base in Europe its not just salary that they compare. The Eastern European countries are catching up with the western counterparts. Ireland has the attraction of the following

Only English speaking country in the EU.
A highly educated workforce for them to choose employees.
A tax base/system that actually entices companies to set up here.

Now show me one other country in Europe offering these 3 USPs

Stats over the last decade would suggest that Ireland is a good place to position yourself..either that or Google, Twitter, Microsoft, Facebook, Pfizer, MSD .. (not continuing too many companies to list but you get the gist) are all wrong in setting up some part of their company in Ireland. You only have to look at the tax take from MNCs

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Yes we are in a global ecconomy and when the globe looks for a base in Europe its not just salary the compare. The Eastern European countries are catching up with the western counterparts. Ireland has the attraction of the following

Only English speaking country in the EU.
A highly educated workforce for them to choose employees.
A tax base/system that actually entices companies to set up here.

Now show me one other country in Europe offering these 3 USPs

In relation to the first two, most other countries in the EU. In relation to the third, that may change quicker than we hope for under the OECD global tax reforms, the digital tax and the CCCTB.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to the first two, most other countries in the EU. In relation to the third, that may change quicker than we hope for under the OECD global tax reforms, the digital tax and the CCCTB.

So all of these companies are wrong so? hang on where's my phone I must ring Mark Zuckerberg and tell him PropsQuery has spoken and your wrong setting up in Ireland. Your hilarity gets better the more you post. You do make me smile do

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

So all of these companies are wrong so? hang on where's my phone I must ring Mark Zuckerberg and tell him PropsQuery has spoken and your wrong setting up in Ireland. Your hilarity gets better the more you post. You do make me smile do

I would be positive they already have plans in place for every scenario in relation to the outcome of the OECD global tax reforms.

But I'm not denying it could also go in our favour. The last reforms really worked out for us so it's entirely possible and I do hope it does.

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

In relation to the first two, most other countries in the EU. In relation to the third, that may change quicker than we hope for under the OECD global tax reforms, the digital tax and the CCCTB.

So most other countries in the EU are English speaking I.e have English as their first language and conduct the vast majority of their business in English
I must inform the Germans and the French
A small percentage of the population Being able to hold a basic conversation in English does not make that country English speaking