PropQueries wrote: » I suppose my point was that the level of social housing required to resolve the housing waiting list problem isn't as large as many commentators make out. In relation to the 75% over the next few years, that would be based upon my assumption that the demand isn't as high as many commentators believe and interest rates rising to c. 5% over the next couple of years. Both are assumptions but the interest rate rise may happen much sooner than many commentators believe. Yesterday, in the Irish Times, Martin Wolf (columnist for the FT) gave some credence to two economists who believe inflation will hit anywhere between 5% and 10% next year and the article was on how would the central banks respond to such a rise and how would countries and companies handle the adverse impact of such a rise. Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/why-inflation-could-be-on-the-way-back-1.4412554
Bass Reeves wrote: » You all over the place, inflation and house prices dropping 75% as the robot in Lost in Space used to say ''dose not compute'' 75% fall and inflation means a house would be bought for a bit with a years wages in such a situation. Inflation actually would push the price of new builds as wages and materials rise in prices. Will inflation increase, I believe so, there is too much savings and demand for consumables is increasing. On such a situation if interest remain low on savings consumers would start spending as money devalues and prices rise, that new bathroom would become a priority and that extension. It would then make sense to carry out insulation and energy efficiency projects on houses as pay back times would decrease.However wages would rise as well. This would mean that if you got on the housing ladder inflation would soften the repayments in 5-10years Demand for social and affordable housing is increasing. It would continue to increase and in a. Inflation eara Government would be under more pressure to build and supply housing as builders and developers struggle with inflation
PropQueries wrote: » I don't believe wages would rise much in Ireland in an era of high inflation.
Cyrus wrote: » of course they would, to think otherwise is foolish.
PropQueries wrote: » Higher inflation can only result in higher wages in a closed economy. In the short-term wages may rise, but in the medium to longer term they will just reduce their headcount and move to lower cost EU countries. We're in a global economy where companies can move to and operate from anywhere. Even the companies that wished to stay, would need to compete with companies that made the shift to e.g. eastern europe and would have a lower cost base. I think that's the primary reason why real wages haven't increased much in the USA for the past 30 years.
fliball123 wrote: » Yes we are in a global ecconomy and when the globe looks for a base in Europe its not just salary the compare. The Eastern European countries are catching up with the western counterparts. Ireland has the attraction of the following Only English speaking country in the EU. A highly educated workforce for them to choose employees. A tax base/system that actually entices companies to set up here. Now show me one other country in Europe offering these 3 USPs
PropQueries wrote: » In relation to the first two, most other countries in the EU. In relation to the third, that may change quicker than we hope for under the OECD global tax reforms, the digital tax and the CCCTB.
fliball123 wrote: » So all of these companies are wrong so? hang on where's my phone I must ring Mark Zuckerberg and tell him PropsQuery has spoken and your wrong setting up in Ireland. Your hilarity gets better the more you post. You do make me smile do
brisan wrote: » So most other countries in the EU are English speaking I.e have English as their first language and conduct the vast majority of their business in English I must inform the Germans and the French A small percentage of the population Being able to hold a basic conversation in English does not make that country English speaking
brisan wrote: So most other countries in the EU are English speaking I.e have English as their first language and conduct the vast majority of their business in English I must inform the Germans and the French A small percentage of the population Being able to hold a basic conversation in English does not make that country English speaking
Villa05 wrote: » I wonder what are the chances of Scotland having another independence referendum in the near future. Is English a widely learned language in Poland currentlt
PropQueries wrote: » I don't believe wages would rise much in Ireland in an era of high inflation. We're very reliant on multinationals and we already have a relatively high wage rate. If wage rises matched the inflation levels those two economists predict, then these multinationals may very seriously consider moving to lower wage countries in the EU. We have already seen how fast they can move employees from the office in relation to WFH. And, we've already seen how quickly they can move money in and out of the country. And, that's assuming the upcoming OECD global tax reforms go in our favour.
I see sheep wrote: » He's injured
Bass Reeves wrote: » Did you even read the article quoted from the Irish Times. It as fairly specific as to the reason for inflation. It was down to labour costs rising. It pointed to labour growth from the 90's from China as well as former Soviet countries and women entering the workforce drove economic growth without inflation as most consumables started to be manufactured in China. Now as demand rises in these countries and there are ages level out as well as a shrinking labour force in developed countries then inflation is a possibility same as the 70's. IMO there is a lot of grey wealth out there by that I mean that people in the 50+ group have become very well off and have substantial savings. Much of it on deposit. Inflation will force this money to become more active in the economy unless you see much higher interest rates He is also old and the order a sports person gets the higher the risk of injury. He is 35 which is fairly old for an out half as reflexes slow down
PropQueries wrote: » That's true about the grey wealth. But you must remember that people retiring today will need their pensions to meet their retirement costs for next c. 30 years, basically the same length of time they have been working. Most private pension funds are in significant deficit so pensioners may be reluctant to spend in case the money does run out even if interest rates remain the same. It also won't be long before the younger workers paying into these pension funds begin to question the benefits being paid out to the older workers and begin seeking a more equitable distribution. The government would have to introduce a significant stick to get them to spend, inflation or no inflation IMO.
brisan wrote: » It’s the older generation of single /separated / divorced people who are currently renting who will become an issue for the state in the next 10-15 years When they retire the state pension will not cover their rent and they would need a decent private pension to cover them Selling a 300-350k family home will not buy 2 houses
Graham wrote: » Are you referring to the hypothetical discussion about future provision of social housing that's unlikely to change in the context of a discussion of the Irish Property Market 2020?
Villa05 wrote: » How can we have a discussion about the property market without discussing the actions of the largest customer, potentially the largest supplier and the largest influencer ie the government through demand, supply and planning policy??
PropQueries wrote: » I'm sure I read a few months ago that from last September all sales details to revenue must now be submitted online instead of the old paper based system. Open to correction, but if true, how would this impact on the PPR i.e. should it becoming more up to date?
PropQueries wrote: » But the most recent CBRE report on the property market stated the many of the bigger developers have been having discussions with the Government in relation to buying/leasing their units.
Cantstandsya wrote: » What part of this entire discussion isn't hypothetical?
Cantstandsya wrote: » How hypothetical is too hypothetical?
PropQueries wrote: » But the most recent CBRE report on the property market stated the many of the bigger developers have been having discussions with the Government in relation to buying/leasing their units. This may be one of the primary reasons why the number of homes available for sale in MyHome has actually fallen and why rents haven't dropped as significantly as would have been predicted on Daft etc. i.e. they're not releasing them into the market in the hope of getting some (I would say most) of that extra cash that was allocated to housing in this years budget. This may have resulted in prices/rents not dropping by as much as predicted so far this year i.e. the Governments policy on the future provision of social housing may actually be causing short-term supply shortages in today's market. But I do understand that a discussion on how the councils intend to provide for social housing in future is more relevant to the social housing thread.
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