Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

brisan

Yyhhuuu wrote: »

I expect all outgoing are factored in calculations.

I personally manage to save over 19k per annum pre covid, now post covid approx. 20k
Saved per annum on net after tax income of over 25k. My income should be increasing so I hope to save more. Delighted with what I've saved so far and really enjoy it.

I dont drive, dont drink and dont smoke and dont eat out as it's usually unhealthy salt and fat laden food. I entertain my friends at home.

I hope everyone else achieves their goals. Best of luck

This is the post being discussed
Impossible in my view
Unless he means 35k after tax pay
It is more than 25k after all

Bubbaclaus

Mortgagemisc wrote: »

How does he get to work? Petrol, car, insurance, tax, upkeep, is he getting the bus or bumbing a lift. Is he living at home or sleeping on the streets

Well pre COVID I was walking to work, which is free, so maybe he can do the same. Or cycle.

From memory, i think he fully owns his own property. So no mortgage or rent to be paying.

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

In fairness, if you are living a very simple life and have no mortgage/rent to be paying, 15 euro a day (100pw) seems like plenty to live off.

It wouldn't be exciting, but it is doable.

No phone ,no laptop ,no wi-fi (how does he post here )
No netflix ,no TV no ITunes etc
Clothes ,gas electricity ,transport etc
Unless he is living at his parents and not handing up a penny it is not possible
He says he entertains his friends at home
That must be a barrel of laughs

It would be a good exercise for the Journals "How I spend my money " feature

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Well pre COVID I was walking to work, which is free, so maybe he can do the same. Or cycle.

From memory, i think he fully owns his own property. So no mortgage or rent to be paying.

Insurance ,Property tax ,utilities ,TV licence .food etc
its no wonder he lives alone
He is not living ,he is existing

Sierra Oscar

I had a read back over the Property Market 2020 thread earlier, specifically looking back over the commentary during the early stages of the pandemic. Naturally some people were predicting a market collapse, but regardless of that most people thought we would have had a notable downturn in market prices by the end of the year - i.e. now.

In reality we are looking at modest falls for 2020, if at all. Same story across Europe too. Who knows what is ahead for us in 2021, but a lot of people have been way off the mark with their pandemic predictions thus far.

Regardless it's all a fairly clear indication that house prices will stay high so long as we are unable to get to grips with the supply challenge that we face. Worth noting that demand remains strong despite the pandemic too. Unsurprising given the effect the pandemic has had on limiting supply.

brisan

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I had a read back over the Property Market 2020 thread earlier, specifically looking back over the commentary during the early stages of the pandemic. Naturally some people were predicting a market collapse, but regardless of that most people thought we would have had a notable downturn in market prices by the end of the year - i.e. now.

In reality we are looking at modest falls for 2020, if at all. Same story across Europe too. Who knows what is ahead for us in 2021, but a lot of people have been way off the mark with their pandemic predictions thus far.

Regardless it's all a fairly clear indication that house prices will stay high so long as we are unable to get to grips with the supply challenge that we face. Worth noting that demand remains strong despite the pandemic too. Unsurprising given the effect the pandemic has had on limiting supply.

We Will have to wait till the life support is switched off
When EWSS and PUP are stopped then we see who survives and who does not
Redundancies for the first 10 months of the year are double last years total
Covid will have to be paid off and banks will all those domestic ,commercial ,and mortgage loans paid back
Unemployment figures will rise as has been predicted
Wait till the dust settles and see how much economic scarring we are left with

Pelezico

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

In fairness, if you are living a very simple life and have no mortgage/rent to be paying, 15 euro a day (100pw) seems like plenty to live off.

It wouldn't be exciting, but it is doable.

I did a six month stint in Scotland on a construction project a couple of years ago. I was put up in a fully paid house utilities paid etc and had a company vehicle. I also had an allowance of £150 per week. I never touched salary in six months.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

No phone ,no laptop ,no wi-fi (how does he post here )
No netflix ,no TV no ITunes etc
Clothes ,gas electricity ,transport etc
Unless he is living at his parents and not handing up a penny it is not possible
He says he entertains his friends at home
That must be a barrel of laughs

It would be a good exercise for the Journals "How I spend my money " feature

He might be saving most of his pay but there is a parent paying most of his bills you can be sure

PropQueries

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I had a read back over the Unsurprising given the effect the pandemic has had on limiting supply.

We’re still expected to build c. 20,000 units this year according to Goodbody two weeks ago. Not far off the c. 21,000 units we built in 2019.

Executor sales (non-Covid related) continue to add to supply. Net inward migration must be well below forecasts for the year.

There’s been no such limiting of supply this year that would have had such an unforeseen adverse impact on the market that wouldn’t have been predicted in January pre-Covid IMO

Mic 1972

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I had a read back over the Property Market 2020 thread earlier, specifically looking back over the commentary during the early stages of the pandemic. Naturally some people were predicting a market collapse, but regardless of that most people thought we would have had a notable downturn in market prices by the end of the year - i.e. now.

In reality we are looking at modest falls for 2020, if at all. Same story across Europe too. Who knows what is ahead for us in 2021, but a lot of people have been way off the mark with their pandemic predictions thus far.

Regardless it's all a fairly clear indication that house prices will stay high so long as we are unable to get to grips with the supply challenge that we face. Worth noting that demand remains strong despite the pandemic too. Unsurprising given the effect the pandemic has had on limiting supply.

In fact prices have increase over 2020. They are now higher than at the beginning of the year.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

We’re still expected to build c. 20,000 units this year according to Goodbody two weeks ago. Not far off the c. 21,000 units we built in 2019.

Executor sales (non-Covid related) continue to add to supply. Net inward migration must be well below forecasts for the year.

There’s been no such limiting of supply this year that would have had such an unforeseen adverse impact on the market that wouldn’t have been predicted in January pre-Covid IMO

And already Mehole Martin has said as recently as the start of the week 20k will not be built this year. Why would he lie? This stat gives Sinn Fein even more ammunition, Sinn Fein built a very impressive campaign on lack of housing. So why would the leader of the country be so daft as to lie about the houses that will be completed this year. Answer on a postcard .... To say that supply is not being limited is an absolute LIE your a liar Props the supply has gone down by over 5k in the last year. This has been proven to you over and over again. The net outward migration is also down and our numbers are going up anyway with births vs deaths and people coming into an age where they would be getting a mortgage ( i personally proved that to you after giving you a stat on the age demographic from 2019 to counter your 2016 out of date and manipulated stat ) Give it over your starting to sound like a broken record. You state something try to prove it and then get schooled and normally have no response when your proven to be a lair. You wait a month or so before regurgitating the fact again . You must think we are all gold fish with little gold fish memories.

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

We Will have to wait till the life support is switched off
When EWSS and PUP are stopped then we see who survives and who does not
Redundancies for the first 10 months of the year are double last years total
Covid will have to be paid off and banks will all those domestic ,commercial ,and mortgage loans paid back
Unemployment figures will rise as has been predicted
Wait till the dust settles and see how much economic scarring we are left with

I cant see there being a big switch off there will be a slow easing off of financial help already the government has committed the same amount for next year as this. If they stopped the help now the globe would go to pot as everyone is in the same boat cant see Ireland doing a solo run and saying the ECB thanks for those billions at 0% I just dont want them we will fine .. It is like your analogy. The world/Irish economy is on life support due to Covid but we now or will soon have a cure for the patient. Now if your looking after the patient do you switch life support off before the cure can be administered?? NO is the answer. You wait for the cure, you give the cure and then you slowly nurse the patient back to health until their ready to walk out of the hospital. It would be a global/Irish catastrophe to do what your suggesting. Will there be debt afterwards. YES is the answer what is the rate of interest = almost 0. We are adding another 30billion at 0% interest onto 200billion to ensure our economy survives. Considering we pumped nearly twice that into banks in 2008 I dont think its too much to pay. The dust wont be settling for a long time and if inflation kicks in it will wipe some of the debt away.

Reins

brisan wrote: »

(He says he entertains his friends at home
That must be a barrel of laughs) :D:D

Sierra Oscar

brisan wrote: »

We Will have to wait till the life support is switched off
When EWSS and PUP are stopped then we see who survives and who does not
Redundancies for the first 10 months of the year are double last years total
Covid will have to be paid off and banks will all those domestic ,commercial ,and mortgage loans paid back
Unemployment figures will rise as has been predicted
Wait till the dust settles and see how much economic scarring we are left with

Yeah, I mean I would ordinarily think that this would be the case but to be honest it's looking like the ECB response to Covid-19 will be much more quantitative easing in 2021 and perhaps beyond.

I would be concerned about the impact this will have on the housing market long-term. We already know that quantitative easing as a result of the previous financial crisis has led to a massive increase in the value of property as institutional investors are able to outbid individual buyers. It's no surprise considering interest rates are so low. It's partly why we are where we are now with property prices.

Why do we think further quantitative easing is going to play out any different this time around? Especially when you consider the ECB has signaled that it will keep interest rates at 0% for potentially years, meaning that investment in property is one of the few ways in which you can relatively safely make money on your investment.

I mean the ECB had been eager to start moving away from quantitative easing pre-pandemic partly due to the distorting effect it is having on housing markets all over the EU. Now we have a situation where quantitative easing is at unprecedented levels and concerns for the housing market has gone way down the list of priorities, which is understandable considering the grave threat the pandemic poses to national economies.

However at the end of the day this money that has been created to fight the financial consequences of the pandemic will end up being invested somewhere as it is consolidated by institutional investors in the coming years. I don't see it going into savings accounts. It's very concerning. I actually think that long-term this will be one of the largest societal impacts of the pandemic and it could reshape politics across Europe.

PropQueries wrote: »

We’re still expected to build c. 20,000 units this year according to Goodbody two weeks ago. Not far off the c. 21,000 units we built in 2019.

Executor sales (non-Covid related) continue to add to supply. Net inward migration must be well below forecasts for the year.

There’s been no such limiting of supply this year that would have had such an unforeseen adverse impact on the market that wouldn’t have been predicted in January pre-Covid IMO

Banking & Payments Federation of Ireland reckon it will be around 18,000. Regardless the Housing Agency reckon we need approximately 20,300 new units annually just to keep up with current demand. We aren't going to see the big increase in supply that will lead to a reduction in prices.

thefridge2006

Nice move by Google to look like the nice guys but I think its down to them knowing they wouldn't be able to achieve the rents in mind.

Would anybody know if this is a loophole regarding the rent ceiling and if they rent it to a charity/not for profit company will they be able to take it back in a few years and charge whatever rent they like then and `skip the 4% max increase?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-to-offer-46-bolands-mills-apartments-to-key-workers-at-reduced-rent-1.4413749

JimmyVik

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Nice move by Google to look like the nice guys but I think its down to them knowing they wouldn't be able to achieve the rents in mind.

Would anybody know if this is a loophole regarding the rent ceiling and if they rent it to a charity/not for profit company will they be able to take it back in a few years and charge whatever rent they like then and `skip the 4% max increase?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/google-to-offer-46-bolands-mills-apartments-to-key-workers-at-reduced-rent-1.4413749

I believe a lot of people are doing that already.

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

But the most recent CBRE report on the property market stated the many of the bigger developers have been having discussions with the Government in relation to buying/leasing their units.

This may be one of the primary reasons why the number of homes available for sale in MyHome has actually fallen and why rents haven't dropped as significantly as would have been predicted on Daft etc. i.e. they're not releasing them into the market in the hope of getting some (I would say most) of that extra cash that was allocated to housing in this years budget.

This may have resulted in prices/rents not dropping by as much as predicted so far this year i.e. the Governments policy on the future provision of social housing may actually be causing short-term supply shortages in today's market.

But I do understand that a discussion on how the councils intend to provide for social housing in future is more relevant to the social housing thread.

Thats been going on for years. It is well know that there are several estates in North Dublin which were taken off the market after about 10 or 20% were sold privately only for it to turn out months later that the council rented the other 80% or so.
And also that the council were approaching developers all over North Dublin and coming offering to lease or buy all of their stock in estates.
IT then spread to other Dublin regions

JimmyVik

brisan wrote: »

No phone ,no laptop ,no wi-fi (how does he post here )
No netflix ,no TV no ITunes etc
Clothes ,gas electricity ,transport etc
Unless he is living at his parents and not handing up a penny it is not possible
He says he entertains his friends at home
That must be a barrel of laughs

It would be a good exercise for the Journals "How I spend my money " feature

I think im probably close to saving 80% of my after tax income at the moment.
Not by choice. Just nothing to spend it on.
About to close sale on a house very soon, i hope, but that money had been put aside for years.
This year there is just nothing to spend money on.



Next year though, once covid is over im going on a huge spending spree. Going to spend like there is no tomorrow .



If there is even a hint of taxes going up next year though, i'll have to consider that and cut back spending just in case i end up paying higher taxes. I think the government did the right thing this year bot hitting our taxes. It just happened that covid came back with a vengeance. I think if it had not come back we would all be prepared to spend now, given the confidence that there arent tax increases coming up.

JimmyVik

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I had a read back over the Property Market 2020 thread earlier, specifically looking back over the commentary during the early stages of the pandemic. Naturally some people were predicting a market collapse, but regardless of that most people thought we would have had a notable downturn in market prices by the end of the year - i.e. now.

In reality we are looking at modest falls for 2020, if at all. Same story across Europe too. Who knows what is ahead for us in 2021, but a lot of people have been way off the mark with their pandemic predictions thus far.

Regardless it's all a fairly clear indication that house prices will stay high so long as we are unable to get to grips with the supply challenge that we face. Worth noting that demand remains strong despite the pandemic too. Unsurprising given the effect the pandemic has had on limiting supply.

I thought we would all be rummaging through skips for scraps at this stage.

Marius34

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Yeah, I mean I would ordinarily think that this would be the case but to be honest it's looking like the ECB response to Covid-19 will be much more quantitative easing in 2021 and perhaps beyond.

I would be concerned about the impact this will have on the housing market long-term. We already know that quantitative easing as a result of the previous financial crisis has led to a massive increase in the value of property as institutional investors are able to outbid individual buyers. It's no surprise considering interest rates are so low. It's partly why we are where we are now with property prices.

Why do we think further quantitative easing is going to play out any different this time around? Especially when you consider the ECB has signaled that it will keep interest rates at 0% for potentially years, meaning that investment in property is one of the few ways in which you can relatively safely make money on your investment.

I mean the ECB had been eager to start moving away from quantitative easing pre-pandemic partly due to the distorting effect it is having on housing markets all over the EU. Now we have a situation where quantitative easing is at unprecedented levels and concerns for the housing market has gone way down the list of priorities, which is understandable considering the grave threat the pandemic poses to national economies.

However at the end of the day this money that has been created to fight the financial consequences of the pandemic will end up being invested somewhere as it is consolidated by institutional investors in the coming years. I don't see it going into savings accounts. It's very concerning. I actually think that long-term this will be one of the largest societal impacts of the pandemic and it could reshape politics across Europe.



Banking & Payments Federation of Ireland reckon it will be around 18,000. Regardless the Housing Agency reckon we need approximately 20,300 new units annually just to keep up with current demand. We aren't going to see the big increase in supply that will lead to a reduction in prices.

That would be the lowest numbers by any of the estimates I have seen, most are within 26k to 40K. Where have you seen those numbers?

beauf

Marius34 wrote: »

That would be the lowest numbers by any of the estimates I have seen, most are within 26k to 40K. Where have you seen those numbers?

Maybe they've been adjusted with an anticipation of lower immigration. Though I wonder if that also has not been fully realised through people not being able to emigrate and others returning to Ireland. Who knows.

Marius34

beauf wrote: »

Maybe they've been adjusted with an anticipation of lower immigration. Though I wonder if that also has not been fully realised through people not being able to emigrate and others returning to Ireland. Who knows.

Don't think so, even without migration estimates are well over 20K.
I guess something wrong with those number, it may mean something different. For example it may mean number of total residential stock increase by 20K, which would be equal more or less of 30K new properties. Who knows what these numbers are about, without looking at the source.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

Don't think so, even without migration estimates are well over 20K.
I guess something wrong with those number, it may mean something different. For example it may mean number of total residential stock increase by 20K, which would be equal more or less of 30K new properties. Who knows what these numbers are about, without looking at the source.

The Irish Central Bank last year put the figure at c. 18,000 without net inward migration.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

The Irish Central Bank last year put the figure at c. 18,500 without net inward migration.

Of what? That's not Central Bank estimates of the figures for demands for new builds?

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

Of what? That's not Central Bank estimates of the figures for demands for new builds?

As per the Central Bank report last year:

"Over the period 2020-2030, the estimates indicate that around 18,000 new dwellings would be required each year due to the natural increase... Our scenario assumes that 5,000 new dwellings are required each year to replace existing housing stock lost due to obsolescence"

I think some commentators have questioned that level of obsolescence per annum so the true required figure is probably lower.

Another poster had previously posted the link to the report but here is the link to the report: https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/vol-2019-no-14-population-change-and-housing-demand-in-ireland-(conefrey-and-staunton).pdf

fliball123

Breaking news this morning and great news IMO. It looks like the EMA and IDA are working together to fast track the approval of a vaccine, reports this morning are that we could have it approved by mid December (if not earlier) and already production of the vaccine (both Pfizer and Moderna) is ramping up in anticipation and countries are being asked to get their buts in gear for roll out. All fighting and crap aside on here and not even linking it to property prices, I think we can all agree that this is great news. I have no link to it Professor Luke O'Neill was on Newstalk this morning discussing the details.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

As per the Central Bank report last year:

"Over the period 2020-2030, the estimates indicate that around 18,000 new dwellings would be required each year due to the natural increase... Our scenario assumes that 5,000 new dwellings are required each year to replace existing housing stock lost due to obsolescence"

I think some commentators have questioned that level of obsolescence per annum so the true required figure is probably lower.

Another poster had previously posted the link to the report but here is the link to the report: https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/vol-2019-no-14-population-change-and-housing-demand-in-ireland-(conefrey-and-staunton).pdf

18k, is not an estimated demands for new dwellings. It just a subset of demands. You see that there is 5k of obsolescence by report (which is low), not sure why you keep omitting numbers you not interested in, and misrepresenting report. Add this and you have 18+5=23K already.
Their total estimate is 34K new dwellings per annum

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

18k, is not an estimated demands for new dwellings. It just a subset of demands. You see that there is 5k of obsolescence by report (which is low), not sure why you keep omitting numbers you not interested in, and misrepresenting report. Add this and you have 18+5=23K already.
Their total estimate is 34K new dwellings per annum

No misrepresenting of the report. I was responding to your assertion that "even without migration estimates are well over 20K".

The central bank report clearly states that c. 18,000 new dwelling are required each year out to 2030 to meet demand "due to the natural increase". It's on page 11 of the report.

Their estimates of c. 18,000 are also based on "5,000 new dwellings are required each year to replace existing housing stock lost due to obsolescence". Also on page 11 of the report.

So, that's c. 13,000 new dwelling required each year if there is no inward net migration or obsolescence.

That level of obsolescence has also been question by a few commentators as they believe that even if that level of obsolescence was correct, it most likely would not happen in such numbers in places where people will actually choose to live e.g. cities, towns etc.

They also appear to assume that the majority of the surplus housing stock overhang from the Celtic Tiger years won't re-enter the market through refurbishments etc. or that ex-AirBnB properties won't re-enter the market.

So, the true number of new built dwellings required to meet current demand "due to the natural increase", which was the point of your initial post and what I was replying to, is probably in the single digits at most IMO

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

No misrepresenting of the report. I was responding to your assertion that "even without migration estimates are well over 20K".

The central bank report clearly states that c. 18,000 new dwelling are required each year out to 2030 to meet demand "due to the natural increase". It's on page 11 of the report.

Their estimates of c. 18,000 are also based on "5,000 new dwellings are required each year to replace existing housing stock lost due to obsolescence". Also on page 11 of the report.

So, that's c. 13,000 new dwelling required each year if there is no inward net migration or obsolescence.

That level of obsolescence has also been question by a few commentators as they believe that even if that level of obsolescence was correct, it most likely would not happen in such numbers in places where people will actually choose to live e.g. cities, towns etc.

They also appear to assume that the majority of the surplus housing stock overhang from the Celtic Tiger years won't re-enter the market through refurbishments etc. or that ex-AirBnB properties won't re-enter the market.

So, the true number of new built dwellings required to meet current demand "due to the natural increase", which was the point of your initial post and what I was replying to, is probably in the single digits at most IMO

Their 34K estimates are based on 5K obsolescence, NOT 18K on 5K.
18K + 5K + 11K = 34K

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

Their 34K estimates are based on 5K obsolescence, NOT 18K on 5K.
18K + 5K + 11K = 34K

Even if net inward migration figure was 100,000 or zero or a minus figure per annum, the 5,000 obsolescence figure wouldn't change...