Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

cubatahavana

fliball123 wrote: »

I think this might put a fly in your theory I think we will be back to normal, students, tourists etc by this time next year if this is true

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1109/1176940-pfizer-covid-vaccine/

Some good news at last. Hopefully we will start seeing the end of the tunnel soon enough

PommieBast

Leozord wrote: »

well with the announcement of the vaccine today, will the rent prices skyrocket?

on the top of that, zoom shares are tumbling today (for those advocating on forever wfh), looks like Dublin rent will go up again in the near future

That's just speculators playing their usual games. There is still a world of difference between a non-peer-reviewed claim of 90% effectiveness and it being universally available.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

I think this might put a fly in your theory I think we will be back to normal, students, tourists etc by this time next year if this is true

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1109/1176940-pfizer-covid-vaccine/

Hopefully the vaccine is proven to work. But I can't see international students, tourist numbers etc. returning to 2019 levels until at least 2022.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Hopefully the vaccine is proven to work. But I can't see international students, tourist numbers etc. returning to 2019 levels until at least 2022.

Really well maybe we should do one of those polls here that if a verified vaccine came into play in the next year and you took it would you go on holidays next year. I have a feeling you would easily get 80% + people going on holiday. If anything I reckon there will be a tidal wave of people going abroad. You may be right with international students but then again if I was a student and wanted to study in say the U.S or the U.K I would be looking to get over a.s.a.p. and get my life going again. Maybe I am just weird in wanting things to go back to normal where you can travel, work and study where ever you want?

Cyrus

fliball123 wrote: »

Really well maybe we should do one of those polls here that if a verified vaccine came into play in the next year and you took it would you go on holidays next year. I have a feeling you would easily get 80% + people going on holiday. If anything I reckon there will be a tidal wave of people going abroad. You may be right with international students but then again if I was a student and wanted to study in say the U.S or the U.K I would be looking to get over a.s.a.p. and get my life going again. Maybe I am just weird in wanting things to go back to normal where you can travel, work and study where ever you want?

indeed

the more likely occurance rather than a 2-3 year wait for things to go back to normal is that people will party like its 1999 for 6-9 months.

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

indeed

the more likely occurance rather than a 2-3 year wait for things to go back to normal is that people will party like its 1999 for 6-9 months.

absolutely the amount of things that I have missed out on this year.

Wedding in Oz and Dublin
Christening
80 Bday
3 21sts
2 Communions.

All of which the people involved will be having a get together of some form for it once we are in the clear. So I will be heading to Oz as a priority once a vaccine is in place. Not to mention the idea of going somewhere hot, nice pool, cold beer and nice food has been dancing in my head for a good 6 months. Nothing like not being able to do something to make you want to do it more.

WhenPigsCry

fliball123 wrote: »

absolutely the amount of things that I have missed out on this year.

Wedding in Oz and Dublin
Christening
80 Bday
3 21sts
2 Communions.

All of which the people involved will be having a get together of some form for it once we are in the clear. So I will be heading to Oz as a priority once a vaccine is in place. Not to mention the idea of going somewhere hot, nice pool, cold beer and nice food has been dancing in my head for a good 6 months. Nothing like not being able to do something to make you want to do it more.

Don't count on getting a vaccine before next summer. Even if it's as effective as they're saying - fingers crossed - frontline health staff have to get it as a priority, and there are some challenges distributing it (it has to be stored/transported in extremely cold temps.)

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

absolutely the amount of things that I have missed out on this year.

Wedding in Oz and Dublin
Christening
80 Bday
3 21sts
2 Communions.

All of which the people involved will be having a get together of some form for it once we are in the clear. So I will be heading to Oz as a priority once a vaccine is in place. Not to mention the idea of going somewhere hot, nice pool, cold beer and nice food has been dancing in my head for a good 6 months. Nothing like not being able to do something to make you want to do it more.

This just seems more and more like just before the last bust and all this talk of what people are going to do with their "savings" etc. is a bit premature in IMO:

"According to estimates based on the latest Department of Finance figures, the 1.13 million SSIA savers are likely to share a total payout of almost €15 billion when their accounts mature between May 2006 and May 2007."

Link to Irish Times article from 2005: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ssia-scheme-may-cost-state-3-billion-as-savings-boosted-1.408294

Of course some have saved a bit, but an article on CIE last week said they have no reserves left if such an event ever happened again and they already have a €550 Million pension deficit to deal with.

That's just one example and next years hoped for party won't make up for all those businesses that lost a years profits this year. The Government's going to have to claw back all this expense at some stage and probably in the form of higher property taxes or other hidden taxes, charges etc.

As ye all know, I don't believe the demand for buying or renting a home was there at the start of this year and I would believe this will start to feed into and be shown in the housing (renting or buying) statistics before the end of this year.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

As ye all know, I don't believe the demand for buying or renting a home was there at the start of this year and I would believe this will start to feed into and be shown in the housing (renting or buying) statistics before the end of this year.

chances are, that at some stage over the the 10 year timeline you have given, you might be right.

just so we are 100% clear, you believe that house prices on average will trade at circa 50% of their value today in 5-10 years time correct?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

chances are, that at some stage over the the 10 year timeline you have given, you might be right.

just so we are 100% clear, you believe that house prices on average will trade at circa 50% of their value today in 5-10 years time correct?

That was a mistype on my part. I meant down at least 75%. Serious

It's based on my belief that there's not many around who can pay today's prices for all those houses that will come on the market in South Dublin over the next ten years due to the coming explosion in probate sales.

OfflerCrocGod

PropQueries wrote: »

That was a mistype on my part. I meant down at least 75%. Serious

LOL.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

That was a mistype on my part. I meant down at least 75%. Serious

It's based on my belief that there's not many around who can pay today's prices for all those houses that will come on the market in South Dublin over the next ten years due to the coming explosion in probate sales.

grand and that 75% is where, nationwide, or just DLR ?

poker--addict

interest rates to go up or down?:D

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

This just seems more and more like just before the last bust and all this talk of what people are going to do with their "savings" etc. is a bit premature in IMO

The roaring 20s followed the Spanish Flu pandemic and with it a a decade of unprecedented growth and prosperity.

PropQueries

poker--addict wrote: »

interest rates to go up or down?:D

Up. I believe they will overshoot their inflation targets, panic and interest rates will jump up to at least 5% in the next 5 years

cubatahavana

PropQueries wrote: »

That was a mistype on my part. I meant down at least 75%. Serious

It's based on my belief that there's not many around who can pay today's prices for all those houses that will come on the market in South Dublin over the next ten years due to the coming explosion in probate sales.

75? That's good. I will be moving to Dalkey with a week's worth of wages in a few years. I will tell my wife. She'll be happy

cnocbui

WhenPigsCry wrote: »

Don't count on getting a vaccine before next summer. Even if it's as effective as they're saying - fingers crossed - frontline health staff have to get it as a priority, and there are some challenges distributing it (it has to be stored/transported in extremely cold temps.)

The rollout will be far faster than you think. Realistically, it at first only has to go to medical staff and then the vulnerable. It's not like we have to wait until 50% of the population have been vaccinated before we party. Transporting cold stuff is old-tech we have long since mastered and wont be a hinderance.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Up. I believe they will overshoot their inflation targets, panic and interest rates will jump up to at least 5% in the next 5 years

No they won't.

no.8

Graham wrote:

The roaring 20s followed the Spanish Flu pandemic and with it a a decade of unprecedented growth and prosperity.

Pre-ceeded by one of the great wars in modern times....tbh, the only way was up

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

The roaring 20s followed the Spanish Flu pandemic and with it a a decade of unprecedented growth and prosperity.

From a quick Google search and it makes sense:

"The main reasons for America's economic boom in the 1920s were technological progress which led to the mass production of goods, the electrification of America, new mass marketing techniques, the availability of cheap credit and increased employment which, in turn, created a huge amount of consumers."

We have nothing similar now except a lot more debt that must be paid back.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

This just seems more and more like just before the last bust and all this talk of what people are going to do with their "savings" etc. is a bit premature in IMO:

"According to estimates based on the latest Department of Finance figures, the 1.13 million SSIA savers are likely to share a total payout of almost €15 billion when their accounts mature between May 2006 and May 2007."

Link to Irish Times article from 2005: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ssia-scheme-may-cost-state-3-billion-as-savings-boosted-1.408294

Of course some have saved a bit, but an article on CIE last week said they have no reserves left if such an event ever happened again and they already have a €550 Million pension deficit to deal with.

That's just one example and next years hoped for party won't make up for all those businesses that lost a years profits this year. The Government's going to have to claw back all this expense at some stage and probably in the form of higher property taxes or other hidden taxes, charges etc.

As ye all know, I don't believe the demand for buying or renting a home was there at the start of this year and I would believe this will start to feed into and be shown in the housing (renting or buying) statistics before the end of this year.

The above list has nothing to do with the savings I have made over the last 9 months I was going to be doing them if corona was not here

AssetBacked2

Leozord wrote: »

well with the announcement of the vaccine today, will the rent prices skyrocket?

on the top of that, zoom shares are tumbling today (for those advocating on forever wfh), looks like Dublin rent will go up again in the near future

Jesus I hope not.

Objectively, it is a horrific rental market when the average price of a 1 bed in Dublin is 2k. Additionally, we will have to look at Mary Lou & Co in a few years leading us if the rental market makes any sort of recovery from this crash back to close to what it was in 2019.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

No they won't.

The ECB and Governments have literally no idea how their QE is working its way through the economy. That's why they can't understand why it hasn't been working.

It will show up eventually and all this extra QE will have added fuel to the inflation fire just when it wasn't needed. Then they will panic. Then they will raise interest rates fast IMO.

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

grand and that 75% is where, nationwide, or just DLR ?

Propqueries, do you mind responding to this, i just want to make sure im absolutely clear.

you are suggesting that a house for sale currently at say 1.5m in dalkey or ballsbridge will be available at 375k is that correct?

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Propqueries, do you mind responding to this, i just want to make sure im absolutely clear.

you are suggesting that a house for sale currently at say 1.5m in dalkey or ballsbridge will be available at 375k is that correct?

Absolutely. Just type in houses for sale in Foxrock and you'll see many mansions in that one area just sitting there for well over a year. There's too many big houses in Dublin and not enough people working in jobs that could ever afford the prices they're looking for today.

Outside Dublin. You already know I believe the so-called vulture funds own most of the vacant ones and they will eventually want to exit over the next few years. So, house prices outside Dublin will most likely be worth a negative price by 2030 IMO.

Just to add. I assume you remember those articles the Irish Times used to do years ago (maybe they still do them) about what you can buy in Dublin and France? And I think Biden being elected may be bad for Ireland in relation to the OECD tax reforms. The democrats didn't win by a big margin so they will be looking to get those jobs back to the USA ASAP before the next election.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

The ECB and Governments have literally no idea how their QE is working its way through the economy. That's why they can't understand why it hasn't been working.

It will show up eventually and all this extra QE will have added fuel to the inflation fire just when it wasn't needed. Then they will panic. Then they will raise interest rates fast IMO.

All central banks know they have blown too much air into the balloon. Not one of them is going to be wielding a pin as a solution, they are going to try and let the air out in a controlled manner.

They have been a bunch of thick idiots all along. The problem has always been a lack of demand, not a lack of stuff to consume. They should never have been propping up corporations, they should have increased consumers disposable income through helicopter money or just paid a portion of their tax for them.

Since people's incomes haven’t changed, the CBs still have time on their side. There will likely be an almighty surge in consumption from those who still have jobs and have money saved (holidays - yay), but it probably wont last long until a return to penury normal.

woejus

PropQueries wrote: »

Absolutely. Just type in houses for sale in Foxrock and you'll see many mansions in that one area just sitting there for well over a year. There's too many big houses in Dublin and not enough people working in jobs that could ever afford the prices they're looking for today.

We've drifted into the arena of the unwell. I can't trust we're dealing with an honest broker here.

See the way the houses are "sitting there" - this means they are in no hurry to sell and can wait out dips in the market.

Hubertj

its a pity there is no vaccine for stupidity

PropQueries

woejus wrote: »

We've drifted into the arena of the unwell. I can't trust we're dealing with an honest broker here.

See the way the houses are "sitting there" - this means they are in no hurry to sell and can wait out dips in the market.

Entirely possible. It's just an opinion as they say

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

The ECB and Governments have literally no idea how their QE is working its way through the economy. That's why they can't understand why it hasn't been working.

It will show up eventually and all this extra QE will have added fuel to the inflation fire just when it wasn't needed. Then they will panic. Then they will raise interest rates fast IMO.

QE started in 2015 in Europe and there has been no major inflation up to now (besides asset inflation) as the majority of the funds stayed in the financial institutions.

The difference this time is that the government are using the QE to stimulate the economy so yes we should see inflation and they will allow it to creep up to 3-4% before doing anything. When they do act to combat inflation it won’t be raising interest rates but will be QT so don’t see rates up at 5% in 5 years. We would be lucky if they get to 1%