WhenPigsCry wrote: » Don't count on getting a vaccine before next summer. Even if it's as effective as they're saying - fingers crossed - frontline health staff have to get it as a priority, and there are some challenges distributing it (it has to be stored/transported in extremely cold temps.)
PropQueries wrote: » Up. I believe they will overshoot their inflation targets, panic and interest rates will jump up to at least 5% in the next 5 years
Graham wrote: The roaring 20s followed the Spanish Flu pandemic and with it a a decade of unprecedented growth and prosperity.
Graham wrote: » The roaring 20s followed the Spanish Flu pandemic and with it a a decade of unprecedented growth and prosperity.
PropQueries wrote: » This just seems more and more like just before the last bust and all this talk of what people are going to do with their "savings" etc. is a bit premature in IMO: "According to estimates based on the latest Department of Finance figures, the 1.13 million SSIA savers are likely to share a total payout of almost €15 billion when their accounts mature between May 2006 and May 2007." Link to Irish Times article from 2005: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ssia-scheme-may-cost-state-3-billion-as-savings-boosted-1.408294 Of course some have saved a bit, but an article on CIE last week said they have no reserves left if such an event ever happened again and they already have a €550 Million pension deficit to deal with. That's just one example and next years hoped for party won't make up for all those businesses that lost a years profits this year. The Government's going to have to claw back all this expense at some stage and probably in the form of higher property taxes or other hidden taxes, charges etc. As ye all know, I don't believe the demand for buying or renting a home was there at the start of this year and I would believe this will start to feed into and be shown in the housing (renting or buying) statistics before the end of this year.
Leozord wrote: » well with the announcement of the vaccine today, will the rent prices skyrocket? on the top of that, zoom shares are tumbling today (for those advocating on forever wfh), looks like Dublin rent will go up again in the near future
cnocbui wrote: » No they won't.
Cyrus wrote: » grand and that 75% is where, nationwide, or just DLR ?
Cyrus wrote: » Propqueries, do you mind responding to this, i just want to make sure im absolutely clear. you are suggesting that a house for sale currently at say 1.5m in dalkey or ballsbridge will be available at 375k is that correct?
PropQueries wrote: » The ECB and Governments have literally no idea how their QE is working its way through the economy. That's why they can't understand why it hasn't been working. It will show up eventually and all this extra QE will have added fuel to the inflation fire just when it wasn't needed. Then they will panic. Then they will raise interest rates fast IMO.
PropQueries wrote: » Absolutely. Just type in houses for sale in Foxrock and you'll see many mansions in that one area just sitting there for well over a year. There's too many big houses in Dublin and not enough people working in jobs that could ever afford the prices they're looking for today.
woejus wrote: » We've drifted into the arena of the unwell. I can't trust we're dealing with an honest broker here. See the way the houses are "sitting there" - this means they are in no hurry to sell and can wait out dips in the market.
Timing belt wrote: » QE started in 2015 in Europe and there has been no major inflation up to now (besides asset inflation) as the majority of the funds stayed in the financial institutions. The difference this time is that the government are using the QE to stimulate the economy so yes we should see inflation and they will allow it to creep up to 3-4% before doing anything. When they do act to combat inflation it won’t be raising interest rates but will be QT so don’t see rates up at 5% in 5 years. We would be lucky if they get to 1%
PropQueries wrote: » Entirely possible. However, I think the current decision makers in the ECB are 'book smart' and not 'street smart' and have little idea what they're doing or how their decisions affect investment decisions in the real world. They appear to make decisions based on if they go wrong they can say "but that's what that economics book I read for my masters told me should happen", so they can't be held responsible. IMO their decisions to date have put us right back into a similar place that resulted in the last bust.
PropQueries wrote: » Absolutely. Just type in houses for sale in Foxrock and you'll see many mansions in that one area just sitting there for well over a year. There's too many big houses in Dublin and not enough people working in jobs that could ever afford the prices they're looking for today. Outside Dublin. You already know I believe the so-called vulture funds own most of the vacant ones and they will eventually want to exit over the next few years. So, house prices outside Dublin will most likely be worth a negative price by 2030 IMO. Just to add. I assume you remember those articles the Irish Times used to do years ago (maybe they still do them) about what you can buy in Dublin and France? And I think Biden being elected may be bad for Ireland in relation to the OECD tax reforms. The democrats didn't win by a big margin so they will be looking to get those jobs back to the USA ASAP before the next election.
Timing belt wrote: » What decisions have they undertaken to ‘put us in a similar place that resulted in the last bust’? I don’t think you know what you are talking about!!!
almostover wrote: » Currently looking to by my first home with my partner and finding that the property market is mental. We had set our sights on a modest detached house not too far from Cork city where we both work but that now has been ruled out as anything in our price range (€300k mortgage + €40k cash) requires a lot more that cosmetic overhaul in most cases. We have a combined salary of €105k per annum. Both of us want to be out of a mortgage in 25 years maximum and have limited our budget accordingly. No point having the so called house of your dreams if you have no disposable income to enjoy your life or be in constant fear or losing one's job and home. We have more or less given up on the idea of a detached house in the countryside. There appears to be no value for money in the second-hand market. For example we viewed a 4 bed detached house 30mins from the city last week that was advertised for €285k and had a offer of €280k. When we viewed the property it was quite neglected, damage to the eaves and slates on the roof, cracks in the load bearing wall in the kitchen and damp around the chimney upstairs. All things fixable if the house was at the right price. But when redecoration and renovation of those items are costed the house was very poor value for money. Especially considering that the help to buy scheme gives €30k off a new A rated house. We have viewed perhaps 15 similar properties this year and have always come to the same conclusion. Therefore, have now switched tack to purchasing a semi-d in a new development. We enquired on Thursday last week about a 4-bed semi D in a new development. 15 mins or so from the city. On the market 1 week. Only 3 properties left. Agent did not provide much in the way of details when questioned on garden sizes, aspects, technical data on build structure etc. Was sent a sexy marketing brochure and a price list and feck all else. Was told that agent would find out about other details for me but that they were getting huge demand to buy off plans. I called again at 9am this morning and in 1 day all remaining properties were sold. I am an engineer by profession and tend to ask for more detail but it's easier for the estate agents to snap up booking deposits from those less interested in the specification of what they are reserving for purchase. It's a complete frenzy out there, people forking over decent portions of their hard saved deposits based on a sales brochure. If you bought a new car from a brochure without even test driving it people would question you but one has to act fast in the property market despite the investment being about 10 times the price of a new car. What's interesting on the new development is that the detached houses struggle to sell. The 'market' valuation dictates the asking price yet there seems to be very few customers in this market that can afford the prices of the larger detached homes. No real point to this post other than ranting but our property market is dysfunctional. There are lots of people winning form it but it certainly isn't young working couples looking to buy their first home. The property market needs state intervention, I'm convinced of that now.
PropQueries wrote: » Ask yourself why the ECB wants inflation to rise? Outside of a few countries, most of the countries in the eurozone (even post-covid) have manageable debt to GDP ratios. They need inflation to rise because they need interest rates to rise to meet the pensions timebomb that is getting ever closer by the year. Once they reach their inflation target, they're increasing interest rates and fast IMO.
Cyrus wrote: » just a tip for you (because its what everyone else is doing), if you are interested at all put down a booking deposit, its completely refundable and will give you at least 30 days to get answers to the qns you have.
almostover wrote: » That probably my lesson to learn, just find it hard to fork over €5k or so just to declare my interest and get more information. Must get solicitor finalized so that I can pay the booking deposit quickly
PropQueries wrote: » Interesting betting odds on Paddy Power. The lowest odds are for the next general election being in 2021. Is there something stirring I'm not aware of and how will this impact on the property market this year as if there's something stirring, will FF/FG change tack fast to bring in further policies to solve the housing issue this year?
Timing belt wrote: » Do you not understand basic economics and the effect of deflation?
AssetBacked2 wrote: » Jesus I hope not. Objectively, it is a horrific rental market when the average price of a 1 bed in Dublin is 2k. Additionally, we will have to look at Mary Lou & Co in a few years leading us if the rental market makes any sort of recovery from this crash back to close to what it was in 2019.
