Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

fago

PropQueries wrote: »

The report states that rents in Waterford City are up 5% YOY. Given that the IT has been online since the start of the academic year and students won't be returning until September 2021, how is that even possible? And that doesn't even include the AirBnB stock that should have re-entered the regular rental market.

Is the Daft report even a reliable source of rental data anymore?

Just to add. It's for Q3, so should we see big declines in e.g. Waterford City for Q4? It also appears these Daft rental reports suffer from the same lag effect as the PPR.

I think it would help if daft included the number of samples in brackets () alongside the reported percentage changes.
Certainly in the house price report outside of Dublin, one could imagine the number of samples for say 5 bed houses in Galway in a Q is low enough that one sale can skew the reported change in rate.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Is the Daft report even a reliable source of rental data anymore?

well if its not telling you what you want to hear i suppose the first thing to do is try discredit it.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

well if its not telling you what you want to hear i suppose the first thing to do is try discredit it.

Not discrediting it. Specifically said it's for Q3.

However, if rents in towns like Maynooth and Waterford City aren't in freefall due to significantly lower numbers of students and no AirBnB demand, then there's only a few possible explanations I can think of this early in the morning:

1. It's a lag effect as it's for Q3 so landlords may have been holding out for a return to normality in October.

2. HAP etc. is now the primary determinant of rental prices in Ireland. This makes sense as how else could places like Donegal have seen an increase of 40% in rents over the past 10 years.

3. Landlords may be keeping units empty and taking the hit this year in the hope of a return to normality in 11 months time (and it is a minimum of 11 months as Maynooth and Waterford colleges are on remote learning until then.)

4. Others?

I would go with point 2 above at the moment. So if this report is accurate, it looks like the state is the rental market now.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

HAP etc. is now the primary determinant of rental prices in Ireland. This makes sense as how else could places like Donegal have seen an increase of 40% in rents over the past 10 years.

Increased demand, limited supply.

L1011

PropQueries wrote: »

However, if rents in towns like Maynooth and Waterford City aren't in freefall due to significantly lower numbers of students and no AirBnB demand, then there's only a few possible explanations I can think of this early in the morning:

Students have been priced out of conventional house/apartment rentals in Maynooth for years now. Its a premium suburb of Dublin at this stage.

There is no reason that a lack of student rentals would reduce rents there.

lalababa

I've seen the headlines in the media, rent increases. There's thousands of places of all types for rent in Cork City & county. Makes you think

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Not discrediting it. Specifically said it's for Q3.

However, if rents in towns like Maynooth and Waterford City aren't in freefall due to significantly lower numbers of students and no AirBnB demand, then there's only a few possible explanations I can think of this early in the morning:

1. It's a lag effect as it's for Q3 so landlords may have been holding out for a return to normality in October.

2. HAP etc. is now the primary determinant of rental prices in Ireland. This makes sense as how else could places like Donegal have seen an increase of 40% in rents over the past 10 years.

3. Landlords may be keeping units empty and taking the hit this year in the hope of a return to normality in 11 months time (and it is a minimum of 11 months as Maynooth and Waterford colleges are on remote learning until then.)

4. Others?

I would go with point 2 above at the moment. So if this report is accurate, it looks like the state is the rental market now.

If you think about it rents outside of Dublin will not be going down , your the one saying more people are working from home I would hazard a guess some have moved outside of Dublin to rentals taking up rental stock. Also if you compare the amount of students that would of been coming into Dublin as apposed to every where else in the country, Dublin would be hit hardest with regard to student accommodation not being used and would more than likely be added to the rental stock (even if temporarily while covid is here) same goes with AirBnb I would say that the majority of airBnbs where in Dublin. So it kind of makes sense that Dublin is dropping due to increased Rental competition and the rest of the country staying the same or rising. Now unlike you Props I have no data (bar the fake news Daft report ) for this so anyone feel free if they have stats or anything that would prove this wrong. Its only my opinion.

PropQueries

lalababa wrote: »

I've seen the headlines in the media, rent increases. There's thousands of places of all types for rent in Cork City & county. Makes you think

According to Daft.ie today, there's only 15 places to rent in Maynooth and this is a University town with c. 14,000 students, most of who are on remote learning until October 2021.

As you said. Makes you think.

Smouse156

Prime Dublin (950k plus) down 4% YoY. Shows that there will be a two tier market with rises in the 300k new build/HTB range and drops in the high end


High-end property prices in capital softening
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/high-end-property-prices-in-capital-softening-1.4403639

Cyrus

Smouse156 wrote: »

Prime Dublin (950k plus) down 4% YoY. Shows that there will be a two tier market with rises in the 300k new build/HTB range and drops in the high end


High-end property prices in capital softening
via The Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/high-end-property-prices-in-capital-softening-1.4403639

that end of the market has been falling for a few years now to be fair. there are only so many buyers for houses in that price bracket.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

According to Daft.ie today, there's only 15 places to rent in Maynooth and this is a University town with c. 14,000 students, most of who are on remote learning until October 2021.

As you said. Makes you think.

Would love to know what your thinking?

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

According to Daft.ie today, there's only 15 places to rent in Maynooth and this is a University town with c. 14,000 students, most of who are on remote learning until October 2021.

As you said. Makes you think.

15 isn't bad for Maynooth, it's been a very tough market to rent in over recent years.

Student houses in particular are a tough find so they tend to be kept over the summer holidays etc just to make sure they're still available for the next academic year.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

If you think about it rents outside of Dublin will not be going down , your the one saying more people are working from home I would hazard a guess some have moved outside of Dublin to rentals taking up rental stock. Also if you compare the amount of students that would of been coming into Dublin as apposed to every where else in the country, Dublin would be hit hardest with regard to student accommodation not being used and would more than likely be added to the rental stock (even if temporarily while covid is here) same goes with AirBnb I would say that the majority of airBnbs where in Dublin. So it kind of makes sense that Dublin is dropping due to increased Rental competition and the rest of the country staying the same or rising. Now unlike you Props I have no data (bar the fake news Daft report ) for this so anyone feel free if they have stats or anything that would prove this wrong. Its only my opinion.

TBH I would take any report from Daft or My home with a large pinch of salt
Same applies to the Irish Times
They all have a vested interest in the market and will spin the narrative to suit themselves
Checking asking prices and the PPR are the only real indicators
As regards rents ,my own view is that REITS are leaving property empty to keep headline rents high and some private landlords are doing under the table deals to keep headline rates high
Landlords leaving the market will also have an effect
I find it hard to believe there are so few properties available in maynooth
Definitely something going on there
I know in my area D3\5 rentals are taking longer to shift and prices are dropping
Ir

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

TBH I would take any report from Daft or My home with a large pinch of salt
Same applies to the Irish Times
They all have a vested interest in the market and will spin the narrative to suit themselves
Checking asking prices and the PPR are the only real indicators
As regards rents ,my own view is that REITS are leaving property empty to keep headline rents high and some private landlords are doing under the table deals to keep headline rates high
Landlords leaving the market will also have an effect
I find it hard to believe there are so few properties available in maynooth
Definitely something going on there
I know in my area D3\5 rentals are taking longer to shift and prices are dropping
Ir

Can I ask how you know d3/5 rentals are taking longer?

Sounds a bit conspiracy theoryish to be honest the idea that some people will just not rent out their property for the last nine months and the foreseeable future to keep prices up? Cant see it maybe a few REITS could afford this but the rental market as a whole ?? I mean supply for sale is drying up another 60 less properties today on myhome than there was Friday evening. Unless there is some conspiracy going on here as well?

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

Can I ask how you know d3/5 rentals are taking longer?

Sounds a bit conspiracy theoryish to be honest the idea that some people will just not rent out their property for the last nine months and the foreseeable future to keep prices up? Cant see it maybe a few REITS could afford this but the rental market as a whole ?? I mean supply for sale is drying up another 60 less properties today on myhome than there was Friday evening. Unless there is some conspiracy going on here as well?

Because we had rental properties in the area and my brother's still do
I also know one landlord with a small block of 6 apartments
They normally go within a few weeks
Last one was 3 months moving and a deal was done
I keep an eye on the market in these areas both sales and rental out of curiousity

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

15 isn't bad for Maynooth, it's been a very tough market to rent in over recent years.

Student houses in particular are a tough find so they tend to be kept over the summer holidays etc just to make sure they're still available for the next academic year.

There's currently 44 properties to let on Daft.ie in Waterford City. Majority of students on remote learning until October 2021 and no AirBnB rental opportunities.

Any ideas on why Waterford City would have so few rentals available?

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

There's currently 44 properties to let on Daft.ie in Waterford City. Majority of students on remote learning until October 2021 and no AirBnB rental opportunities.

Any ideas on why Waterford City would have so few rentals available?

Because people need somewhere to live, pandemic or no pandemic, college or no college.

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

Because we had rental properties in the area and my brother's still do
I also know one landlord with a small block of 6 apartments
They normally go within a few weeks
Last one was 3 months moving and a deal was done
I keep an eye on the market in these areas both sales and rental out of curiousity

So they still rented even if it took a little longer and considering lockdown and the protection afforded to tenants during lockdown would this not of made sense that it took longer as in why would you move to a different accommodation when you can stay where you are rent free without being turfed out? What deal was done have you numbers?

Pelezico

The Irish Times and Daft are shills for the property market. It has always been so, since the tiger years.

Property porn has it gone away.

The dream home and aspirational language will always be with us.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

So they still rented even if it took a little longer and considering lockdown and the protection afforded to tenants during lockdown would this not of made sense that it took longer as in why would you move to a different accommodation when you can stay where you are rent free without being turfed out? What deal was done have you numbers?

I have but without going into details it was roughly an 8,5% reduction over the year

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

I have but without going into details it was roughly an 8,5% reduction over the year

Just out of curiosity D3/5 would be in the RPZ so how does that work out for your bro say in 2 years time when we are back to normal no covid etc will they have to work off the new figure for increases or have they looked into that?? So your experience is not what Props is coming up with that people are just leaving property off the market instead of renting at a lower price?

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

There's currently 44 properties to let on Daft.ie in Waterford City. Majority of students on remote learning until October 2021 and no AirBnB rental opportunities.

Any ideas on why Waterford City would have so few rentals available?

No idea, it's not a market I'm familiar with and I've no notion of the typical level of vacancies in Waterford.

Hubertj

Given the constantly changing regulatory framework around rentals - rent freezes, eviction bans, etc - i presume this would factor into a landlord putting an apartment or house on the market. On 1 hand you are losing rental income but on the other you are risking an expensive asset by releasing it to the market (obviously there are always risks but them seem to be more relevant at present).

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity D3/5 would be in the RPZ so how does that work out for your bro say in 2 years time when we are back to normal no covid etc will they have to work off the new figure for increases or have they looked into that?? So your experience is not what Props is coming up with that people are just leaving property off the market instead of renting at a lower price?

Has not affected my brother's yet as they have not lost tenants
The lad I know with the six apartments still has the headline rent on the lease but over the year he will not get it all
If things go back to normal he will work off his headline rate if he can get it

AssetBacked2

fliball123 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity D3/5 would be in the RPZ so how does that work out for your bro say in 2 years time when we are back to normal no covid etc will they have to work off the new figure for increases or have they looked into that?? So your experience is not what Props is coming up with that people are just leaving property off the market instead of renting at a lower price?

Ah the phrase Waiting for Godot comes to mind with the "say in 2 years when we are back to normal". There is no return to normal with the economy and in particular with the property market after covid if by "normal" you mean what we had just before the lockdowns were introduced. An 8% reduction on rents achieved in 2019 would be good going in 2 years.

fliball123

AssetBacked2 wrote: »

Ah the phrase Waiting for Godot comes to mind with the "say in 2 years when we are back to normal". There is no return to normal with the economy and in particular with the property market after covid if by "normal" you mean what we had just before the lockdowns were introduced. An 8% reduction on rents achieved in 2019 would be good going in 2 years.

When I say back to normal I mean we are not in lockdown or threat of lockdown. When rentals, tourism, airBnb and student accommodation will be back in play, considering all of that 8% actually seems quite modest

Leozord

well with the announcement of the vaccine today, will the rent prices skyrocket?

on the top of that, zoom shares are tumbling today (for those advocating on forever wfh), looks like Dublin rent will go up again in the near future

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

When I say back to normal I mean we are not in lockdown or threat of lockdown. When rentals, tourism, airBnb and student accommodation will be back in play, considering all of that 8% actually seems quite modest

But it will be most likely the 2022/2023 academic year before international students (there's over 5,000 in UCD alone) will be returning in any significant numbers as they would need to make their decision by early next year at the latest to be enrolled for the 2021/2022 academic year.

In relation to AirBnB, they will need to apply for planning permission to remain in the STL market and there were reports a month or so ago that very few had applied for it. Given that AirBnB now pass their clients information on to the revenue, it would be a risky move to continue renting on the AirBnB etc. platforms without such planning in place IMO. Unless there's a loophole somewhere, which wouldn't surprise me.

fliball123

Leozord wrote: »

well with the announcement of the vaccine today, will the rent prices skyrocket?

on the top of that, zoom shares are tumbling today (for those advocating on forever wfh), looks like Dublin rent will go up again in the near future

yeah just seen that there look I think weather your a bull, bear, opportunist, or pessimist when it comes to property price I think we can all agree that this is great news

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But it will be most likely the 2022/2023 academic year before international students (there's over 5,000 in UCD alone) will be returning in any significant numbers as they would need to make their decision by early next year at the latest to be enrolled for the 2021/2022 academic year.

In relation to AirBnB, they will need to apply for planning permission to remain in the STL market and there were reports a month or so ago that very few had applied for it. Given that AirBnB now pass their clients information on to the revenue, it would be a risky move to continue renting on the AirBnB etc. platforms without such planning in place IMO. Unless there's a loophole somewhere, which wouldn't surprise me.

I think this might put a fly in your theory I think we will be back to normal, students, tourists etc by this time next year if this is true

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1109/1176940-pfizer-covid-vaccine/