Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

WhenPigsCry

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its very very relevant, although here even macro economics isnt relevant, the housing market exists in a vaccum devoid of any other externalities some would have you believe.

18-34s are solely voting Sinn Fein en masse because of the housing market, its something a few of us here predicted, this poll provides some proof to that prediction.

It's not "very very relevant." First, a general election might be as far away as 2025. Second, the polls might change between now and the next GE. Third, the results in the GE might not reflect the polls, especially as younger voters traditionally turnout in smaller numbers than older voters, who skew more conservative. Fourthly, even if SF win the most seats in the next GE, whenever that might be, it would be very unlikely that they'd have an overall majority, and any housing policy they want to implement would be dependant on negotiations with their prospective coalition partners.

The only immediate relevance is that the parties in power will note that they are performing poorly among this demographic, and will want to address that, but they will not want to (a) address it in any way likely to alienate their existing support base, which in the case of FG and FF consists of mostly older more conservative voters who typically own their own homes; or (b) conflicts with existing policy objectives and commitments.

So no, an opinion poll on voting intentions among young people with no general election at hand is not super relevant to the current state of the housing market.

MacronvFrugals

We have among the highest in the EU 25-29s living with parents, i'm not sure these are things FF/FG can fix before the next election look at broadband and the children's hospital -

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/jump-in-young-irish-adults-living-with-parents-among-highest-in-eu-1.4177848

brisan

Balluba wrote: »

Am I right to assume that it will be the over 38’s who will have to pay up for the free houses that Sinn Fein will give to the under 38’s?

It will be the generations to come who will pay it ,the same people who will pay our current 200 Billion debt

MacronvFrugals

I wonder which generations saddled us with that 200 billion debt

brisan

Balluba wrote: »

Am I right to assume that it will be the over 38’s who will have to pay up for the free houses that Sinn Fein will give to the under 38’s?

Quick maths
200,000 Houses built at a cost of 200,000 most on state owned land or state acquired land is 40 billion
That's less than 25% of what we currently owe
The state will get maybe half it back in sales and some money back in rent
At least we would have something to show for it and help solve a crisis

Thats the road SF are taking and it will be a popular one

javaboy

brisan wrote: »

The good Friday agreement was 22 years ago
Even 34 yr old's were only 12 at the time and have no recollection of the troubles up the north
SF violent history on both sides of the border means little to anyone under 40

This is a false sweeping generalisation. I'm mid-30's and not from NI.

Assetbacked

javaboy wrote: »

This is a false sweeping generalisation. I'm mid-30's and not from NI.

I'm not SF, not really any party to be honest, and am 31 but I've seen no link from the SF we see (Mary Lou, O'Broin, Pearse Doherty (I think is his name)) to these troubles. I just hear the same comments from my parents about them but I see my parents as being irrational with these views.

The_Conductor

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I wonder which generations saddled us with that 200 billion debt

The last two generations in particular saddled us with this debt.
However- an even worse debt- which is not included in this 200 billion- is the unfunded future pension obligations that are being accumulated towards all those paying into PRSI- and who are entitled to PRSI contributory pension on retirement.

The government's answer to an aging population, thus far, has been to progressively raise the age at which contributory pension rights vest for people who are aged and might wish to retire.

We have a demographic time bomb which is already beginning to explode- and the under 40s are in for one hell of a shock when their turn to pay taxes comes into focus. If today's taxpayers think they have it bad (and we do have some of the most onerous tax regimes in Europe- on parr with Scandinavia, but without the social welfare state that Scandinavia has) things are going to get a hell of a lot worse.

The current train of thought seems to be- its fine to accumulate debt now- while debt is cheap- and while we actually have no intention of ever repaying it, if the day comes when it becomes necessary to do so, it will be someone else's problem...........

Hardly a firm foundation on which to make future plans.

fliball123

Assetbacked wrote: »

I'm not SF, not really any party to be honest, and am 31 but I've seen no link from SF to these troubles. I just hear the same comments from my parents about them but I see my parents as being irrational with these views.

SF wont be getting in until the later generation have popped their clogs I could see them being their in maybe 2/3 elections time. The thing that they can be beaten with do and it is unique to SF is that they made promises up the north and never backed them up and all other parties can point to this and call them out as being bullsh1ters .. but then again all parties are. There needs to be a serious bit of reform done in politics as in if a party gives a 5 point plan they need to actively try and get these 5 points in while in government. I cannot understand how we have no system of making politicians accountable for their actions, they get voted out and onto a nice pension. If their pension was at stake I reckon they would get to work quick sharp.

Assetbacked

A party that abolishes the politician's pension would have my vote straight away. For me, it is the definition of the fat cats creaming off the top for themselves.

Assetbacked

Assetbacked wrote: »

..........

But the fear of SF seems to be so irrational as they are a centre-left party, not even extreme in policies. ............

The utd Ireland thing doesn't appeal to anyone with an economic mind, not to mention the potential for unrest.

Hubertj

its funny that some people think that a political party that advocates and defends the murder of women and children have the best interests of the country at heart. That before we even consider their "policies", which are mainly drafted in another jurisdiction. Its unfortunate that this pandemic has hit the country. IF the Dail was properly functioning it would provide the opportunity to scrutinize some of the SF TDs elected earlier this year. Skeletons in the closet would have a more literal meaning.

Sad state of affairs when younger generations think bombers are the solution.

Assetbacked

Hubertj wrote: »

its funny that some people think that a political party that advocates and defends the murder of women and children have the best interests of the country at heart. That before we even consider their "policies", which are mainly drafted in another jurisdiction. Its unfortunate that this pandemic has hit the country. IF the Dail was properly functioning it would provide the opportunity to scrutinize some of the SF TDs elected earlier this year. Skeletons in the closet would have a more literal meaning.

Sad state of affairs when younger generations think bombers are the solution.

"Okay boomer".

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I wonder which generations saddled us with that 200 billion debt

https://countryeconomy.com/national-debt/ireland

Assetbacked

Assetbacked wrote: »

I'm not SF, not really any party to be honest, and am 31 but I've seen no link from the SF we see (Mary Lou, O'Broin, Pearse Doherty (I think is his name)) to these troubles. I just hear the same comments from my parents about them but I see my parents as being irrational with these views.

You'd not believe the claims that the IRA army council has political influence/control over Sinn Fein so?

brisan

javaboy wrote: »

This is a false sweeping generalisation. I'm mid-30's and not from NI.

So do the trouble in the north mean anything to you
Do you remember them
Have they any impact on your thinking today

IK09

drogon. wrote: »

I don't get this mentality. Sure person "B" bought the house at 450K, and person "A" might buy a similar house in the area for 300K in few years time. But what about when you include the average rent person "A" is going to spend from now until they can buy the same house for 300K ?

The average rent in Dublin is 2K a month, so in one year person "A" will pay €24,000 in rent alone, rather than paying off a mortgage. Now if Person "B" pays the same amount towards their mortgage they could easily save money on the long run by paying more towards their mortgage and saving on interest.

Well if youre going to take that logic you have to take into account the interest on the mortgage. The first few years of repayments are doing next to nothing to your mortgage balance. See table of amortization

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

its funny that some people think that a political party that advocates and defends the murder of women and children have the best interests of the country at heart. That before we even consider their "policies", which are mainly drafted in another jurisdiction. Its unfortunate that this pandemic has hit the country. IF the Dail was properly functioning it would provide the opportunity to scrutinize some of the SF TDs elected earlier this year. Skeletons in the closet would have a more literal meaning.

Sad state of affairs when younger generations think bombers are the solution.

Look at the alternatives they were given, previous generations need to have some introspection....

javaboy

brisan wrote: »

So do the trouble in the north mean anything to you
Do you remember them
Have they any impact on your thinking today

I vividly remember the troubles being a prominent part of the news yeah. I remember Omagh and other smaller incidents. Hard to forget some of those things.

It impacts my thinking when it comes to Sinn Féin and certain other parties in the north. I wouldn't be a supporter of their economic policies now regardless so they're not exactly losing a voter in me but I have would more readily accept them as a political party if they'd dissolve and rebrand. Cut ties with the past. Hang up the mask and cape, so to speak. Likewise, the mainstream parties & media also need to play their part and stop banging on about their past too.

EDIT: Anyway... how about the property market, eh?

PommieBast

The_Conductor wrote: »

We have a demographic time bomb which is already beginning to explode- and the under 40s are in for one hell of a shock when their turn to pay taxes comes into focus.

My working assumption is that by the time I get to 60-70 there won't be a state pension. When the cohort who have had nothing to show for gov't spending become the majority, the political pressure will be to slash it.

MacronvFrugals

I would agree with brisan here especially for 20-28 year olds thats the age range my friends are and the troubles doesn't matter when your living with parents or stuck paying most of your wages on rent if you're even that lucky.

In order of precedence this cant be relied on by FF/FG anymore and will be even less so in the future.

Assetbacked

Augeo wrote: »

You'd not believe the claims that the IRA army council has political influence/control over Sinn Fein so?

I don't know if I do. Even in the North, they have been part of the Assembly for a long time, a generation in fact, which has largely kept peace in the North. This would indicate the GFA is working. But as I said, I don't see the link to the likes of Mary Lou, O'Broin and Pearse Doherty to this. I have tipped in and out of O'Broin's book and compare him to Eoghan Murphy, that would be more relevant to me.

brisan

Well talking to my children and their friends in their 30s you are more than likely in a minority
The results of the last election show that a significant proportion of the under 40s voted SF indeed if SF had ran more candidates in certain areas they would have captured more seats as they topped the poll in a few constituencies

https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-most-popular-party-age-groups-4998864-Feb2020/

brisan

PommieBast wrote: »

My working assumption is that by the time I get to 60-70 there won't be a state pension. When the cohort who have had nothing to show for gov't spending become the majority, the political pressure will be to slash it.

My assumption is that it will eventually be means tested with very low thresholds

Get Real

enricoh wrote: »

Here's sinn feins proposals today for the upcoming budget- basically double the social housing spend. They must live in a parallel universe where coronavirus hasn't wrecked the government finances!

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/tenants-with-a-history-of-bad-behaviour-would-not-be-blacklisted-under-sinn-feins-new-housing-plan-39548392.html

The monthly affordable rent in Dublin for a three-bedroom home would be €700-€900, he said, and less outside the capital.

Also, people are going to vote for them, for a plan that doesn't actually impact hugely on working people. Also in article :

"Of the 20,000 target, 12,000 homes would be designated as ‘social’, meaning council homes rented to low-income tenants at far less than the private-market cost.

Sinn Féin would retain 8,000 as affordable homes. Of these, 4,000 would be available for purchase at an even lower price and the other half set aside for an affordable rental scheme"

So 4,000 houses available for purchase by working people or couples. Spread across the country. The remaining 4,000 for rent, at 700-900 quid (wherever that figure came from), spread around the country.

If you earn over 25k-35k (depending on the local authority) you're ineligible. (source https://www.housing.gov.ie/file/1479)

The squeezed middle, who are now turning to the likes of Sinn Féin, won't even significantly benefit from their plan on housing. 100s of thousands out there, who don't qualify for affordable housing, but don't earn enough to buy a house, won't benefit from populist policies that deliver 4,000 homes for purchase to be divided among them.

brisan

brisan wrote: »

.....................
The results of the last election show that a significant proportion of the under 40s voted SF ..........

No doubt.
We are in a time when the yellow vest brigade way of thinking has a huge following. Folk don't want water charges, folk want tax cuts, folk want better hospitals, no patients on trolleys, cheap houses for all etc etc.

SF promise all that and in return propose taxing the wealthy (whoever they are, folk on over €50k/annum maybe ??? ).

Danny552

Augeo wrote: »

On a site where?

Well if you have land you will, I will be building my own house in kildare like most of my family have over the years. All new builds are poor quality just built to fast and a ridiculous price slapped on.

Danny552

Danny552 wrote: »

Well if you have land you will, I will be building my own house in kildare like most of my family have over the years. All new builds are poor quality just built to fast and a ridiculous price slapped on.

The person wants to buy in Montenotte, St Lukes or Blackrock in Cork. St Lukes and Montenotte are close to the city centre.

It's not at all analogous to building in Kildare.

Cyrus

Danny552 wrote: »

Well if you have land you will, I will be building my own house in kildare like most of my family have over the years. All new builds are poor quality just built to fast and a ridiculous price slapped on.

unlike the lessons in design, construction and landscaping that all the one off builds out the country are :pac:

Ignacius

Augeo wrote: »

No doubt.
We are in a time when the yellow vest brigade way of thinking has a huge following. Folk don't want water charges, folk want tax cuts, folk want better hospitals, no patients on trolleys, cheap houses for all etc etc.

SF promise all that and in return propose taxing the wealthy (whoever they are, folk on over €50k/annum maybe ??? ).

I reckon they mean the millionaire/ billionaire class.

Of course it is a dystopian communist nightmare to expect decent services from the taxes you pay.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/who-are-ireland-s-17-billionaires-1.4145400%3fmode=amp