Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

awec

Cantstandsya wrote: »

I guess all those newspaper articles reporting lower bank valuations back in May and the Daft report showing reduced asking prices in June were all lying then.

Of course they weren't lying. The daft report highlighted fairly clearly that asking prices for certain types of houses, in certain areas, had dropped. It also highlighted that nationally, on average prices were down 0.5%, but also that supply of properties for sale was the lowest it's been in 14 years.

Nobody really knows what houses are actually selling for right now. There is anecdotal evidence on this thread of houses struggling to sell and also houses going far above asking.

It'll be a long time before the true state of things is clear.

The_Brood

What are the chances the economy will go into a big recession, severely impacting house prices within the next 6-9 months?

fliball123

The_Brood wrote: »

What are the chances the economy will go into a big recession, severely impacting house prices within the next 6-9 months?

It all depends on if they find a vaccine for Corona

Newbie20

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If I was selling and a buyer tried this stunt I go back to under bidder. As well if he failed to honour contract I see it as a valid reason to hold onto deposit.

Finally If I had to sell for 20k less I give an underbidder the option rather than a lad that tried that stunt at closing

Yeah agreed, I think it’s crazy advice For solicitors to be giving out when it’s none of their business really. I think it’s a foolish risk to take, particularly if the buyer is anxious to just get the sale over the line and if I was the seller I would probably become stubborn and sell to anyone else bar the ones that decreased their offer after going sale agreed.

SozBbz

Bass Reeves wrote: »

If I was selling and a buyer tried this stunt I go back to under bidder. As well if he failed to honour contract I see it as a valid reason to hold onto deposit.

Finally If I had to sell for 20k less I give an underbidder the option rather than a lad that tried that stunt at closing

You've no right whatsoever to hold someones deposit until contracts have been signed. Thats not whats in question here.

SozBbz

fliball123 wrote: »

It all depends on if they find a vaccine for Corona

Positive murmurings coming from both the UK and US vaccine teams, human trials going well apparently. We're not over the line yet, but some serious experts whose opinion I'd value on the matter are quite optimistic.

fliball123

SozBbz wrote: »

Positive murmurings coming from both the UK and US vaccine teams, human trials going well apparently. We're not over the line yet, but some serious experts whose opinion I'd value on the matter are quite optimistic.

I was looking at that as well if all going well looks like there could be a cure towards the end of the year

Marius34

The_Brood wrote: »

What are the chances the economy will go into a big recession, severely impacting house prices within the next 6-9 months?

Big recession is already here and will stay for a while. 2020 Q2 reported largest economy contraction in our lifetime.
Currently, the chance of severe impact on the house price is quite low. Simply due to Supply/Demand economics. But many things can change down the line within years, that no one can tell exactly what will happen in the years to come..

mcsean2163

Newbie20 wrote: »

Yeah agreed, I think it’s crazy advice For solicitors to be giving out when it’s none of their business really. I think it’s a foolish risk to take, particularly if the buyer is anxious to just get the sale over the line and if I was the seller I would probably become stubborn and sell to anyone else bar the ones that decreased their offer after going sale agreed.

If I was a seller, I'd most likely allow 10k off or something, maybe the whole 20 depending on situation. I suppose depends on the asking price too....

mcsean2163

Marius34 wrote: »

Big recession is already here and will stay for a while. 2020 Q2 reported largest economy contraction in our lifetime.
Currently, the chance of severe impact on the house price is quite low. Simply due to Supply/Demand economics. But many things can change down the line within years, that no one can tell exactly what will happen in the years to come..

? Seriously, if there's a big recession people will have less money and be able to afford less expensive houses.

For example, people get paid less in Nairobi Kenya and prices are cheaper despite demand

[url]htTps://www.buyrentkenya.com/houses-for-sale/nairobi[/url]

fliball123

mcsean2163 wrote: »

If I was a seller, I'd most likely allow 10k off or something, maybe the whole 20 depending on situation. I suppose depends on the asking price too....

I wouldnt if I had a house in a place people want to live and its in good nick I would sell for a cent under what I think its worth. Why would I give you a discount when there will be others who will pay it

fliball123

mcsean2163 wrote: »

? Seriously, if there's a big recession people will have less money and be able to afford less expensive houses.

For example, people get paid less in Nairobi Kenya and prices are cheaper despite demand

[url]htTps://www.buyrentkenya.com/houses-for-sale/nairobi[/url]

OK well off you go and buy a house in Nairobi then . I would hazard a guess if you asked 1000 people around the world if they preferred to live in Nairobi as apposed to Dublin I reckon nearly all would say Dublin..Same goes with Dublin and Sligo and then if you compared say Dublin to New York then you would have New York with the majority of people wanting to live there and you can see the prices over there as globally more people would want to live there. Also I dont think there are too many REITS coming in and buying 85% of new properties off the plan from developers in Nairobi. Also have you also compared the return on rent between Nairobi and Dublin?

Shelga

fliball123 wrote: »

I wouldnt if I had a house in a place people want to live and its in good nick I would sell for a cent under what I think its worth. Why would I give you a discount when there will be others who will pay it

Presuming there are others who can/will pay it.

fliball123

Shelga wrote: »

Presuming there are others who can/will pay it.

If not I would wait till the pandemic is over, the economy is going again and wait till I get the price I want

JimmyVik

Newbie20 wrote: »

Yeah agreed, I think it’s crazy advice For solicitors to be giving out when it’s none of their business really. I think it’s a foolish risk to take, particularly if the buyer is anxious to just get the sale over the line and if I was the seller I would probably become stubborn and sell to anyone else bar the ones that decreased their offer after going sale agreed.

Its just made up.

No solicitor is going to give that advice to a client after sale agreed, never mind 3 of them. And somehow the poster got this rare inside knowledge not once but 3 times. Yeah right.

BEdS_83

I also think that there is plenty evidence that the price are going down, some times you can see people dropping ads from daft and myhome and then creating new ones.
I remember seeing one house here in Dun Laoghaire, what got my attention was the location, because it was close to the vet from my dog, that house was priced at 745k, now the same house is priced at 695k, and it's funny because you can still see the price if you google the address + daft, google's cache is still showing as it was back then.

one thing that bothers me is those vulture funds and how unfair is this situation, Station Manor for instance, house there were price 565, 560 and then 540, suddenly all ads were gone, dng also removed from their website, few days later daft showed and ad from occu they are now renting out the houses there, can't post the link here because I'm new .. guess what?! 2775/m 4-bed house

it is almost impossible to compete when you have someone shoving money around like that.

mcsean2163

fliball123 wrote: »

If not I would wait till the pandemic is over, the economy is going again and wait till I get the price I want

Good for you, presumably you can carry that risk. We sold and bought in the last recession. We sold for half the 2007 price and bought for half the 2007 price.

Prices before covid19 were still not back to 2007, so you may not have to wait as long. Personally, I think a seller would be mad to pull a sale for the sake of 20k, we've been considering another move, our asking price would be a lot lower than before Christmas!

KBC was saying 12% drop, that's more than 20k for average house in Dublin.

SozBbz

BEdS_83 wrote: »

I also think that there is plenty evidence that the price are going down, some times you can see people dropping ads from daft and myhome and then creating new ones.
I remember seeing one house here in Dun Laoghaire, what got my attention was the location, because it was close to the vet from my dog, that house was priced at 745k, now the same house is priced at 695k, and it's funny because you can still see the price if you google the address + daft, google's cache is still showing as it was back then.

I bought my house in 2019 for €65k less than it was first listed for in 2018.

Maybe the original EA did a bad job
Maybe the owner wanted too much
Probably a bit of both

Statistically though it means nothing. Its just a single piece of anecdotal evidence.

JimmyVik

BEdS_83 wrote: »

I also think that there is plenty evidence that the price are going down, some times you can see people dropping ads from daft and myhome and then creating new ones.
I remember seeing one house here in Dun Laoghaire, what got my attention was the location, because it was close to the vet from my dog, that house was priced at 745k, now the same house is priced at 695k, and it's funny because you can still see the price if you google the address + daft, google's cache is still showing as it was back then.

one thing that bothers me is those vulture funds and how unfair is this situation, Station Manor for instance, house there were price 565, 560 and then 540, suddenly all ads were gone, dng also removed from their website, few days later daft showed and ad from occu they are now renting out the houses there, can't post the link here because I'm new .. guess what?! 2775/m 4-bed house

it is almost impossible to compete when you have someone shoving money around like that.

Councils doing exactly the same thing too.

Shelga

I withdrew a bid on a fixer upper house, which has since been reduced by €10k on Daft, but I think it's far too early to tell if there are going to be any significant price drops. It seems to vary wildly.

Supply is still abysmal.

brisan

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Bank valuers and solicitors disagree with you.

Nephew had a bid on a house accepted
15K over asking
Second hand but in show house condition
Bank valuer would only value it at 20k under asking
His deposit was maxed as it was so he had to walk
This was on Monday

SozBbz

Shelga wrote: »

I withdrew a bid on a fixer upper house, which has since been reduced by €10k on Daft, but I think it's far too early to tell if there are going to be any significant price drops. It seems to vary wildly.

Supply is still abysmal.

Fixer uppers have been the hardest to shift, since long before Covid19

Builders are expensive and everything has to be done to such a high standard in terms of energy efficiency these days - its daunting for a lot of people to take on such projects - having to live somewhere while work is done, fear of unforseen costs etc, finding a good builder and not a cowboy....

While the market was going up aggressively YoY, it felt to me that some sellers of fixer uppers were being unrealistic in their asking prices anyway.

Houses in good nick are still moving though.

Marius34

mcsean2163 wrote: »

? Seriously, if there's a big recession people will have less money and be able to afford less expensive houses.

For example, people get paid less in Nairobi Kenya and prices are cheaper despite demand

[url]htTps://www.buyrentkenya.com/houses-for-sale/nairobi[/url]

When we talk about demands, is the the one, that people by some extend can afford. It's a whole different income level to compare Kenya with Ireland property price.
Note, I'm not saying that prices will not go down, what I commented is about the Severe fall. There is no data to suggest that there is going to be a severe fall in property price.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

It all depends on if they find a vaccine for Corona

That and only that will be the only way out of a recession .
Even if a successful one is found it will depend on how much economic scarring the pandemic will leave in its wake

Marius34

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Good for you, presumably you can carry that risk. We sold and bought in the last recession. We sold for half the 2007 price and bought for half the 2007 price.

Prices before covid19 were still not back to 2007, so you may not have to wait as long. Personally, I think a seller would be mad to pull a sale for the sake of 20k, we've been considering another move, our asking price would be a lot lower than before Christmas!

KBC was saying 12% drop, that's more than 20k for average house in Dublin.

I mentioned before, that KBC predictions was one of the weirdest I ever seen.
They forecast 12% drop for property price in 2020, and than 8% increase in 2021. It maybe realistic their forecast for 2021 that property price maybe -4% lower than begging of 2020. But the fluctuation they forecast... won't happen.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

If not I would wait till the pandemic is over, the economy is going again and wait till I get the price I want

People said the exact same thing in 2007

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

I mentioned before, that KBC predictions was one of the weirdest I ever seen.
They forecast 12% drop for property price in 2020, and than 8% increase in 2021. It maybe realistic their forecast for 2021 that property price maybe -4% lower than begging of 2020. But the fluctuation they forecast... won't happen.

I think I would take the word of an economic expert who works for a bank rather than some randomer on the internet.
KBC have skin in the game.
its not in their interest for house prices to drop

SmokyMo

brisan wrote: »

I think I would take the word of an economic expert who works for a bank rather than some randomer on the internet.
KBC have skin in the game.
its not in their interest for house prices to drop

Half of economist working for KBC Ireland now were preaching in 07 that there is no bubble. Genuinely look up senior economist/analysts on linkedIn, then google them.

KBC has no skin in the game. The worst thing you can do is to believe a forecast from economists/financial advisors. Mortgages would be bundled into fin products and sold off.

Newbie20

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its just made up.

No solicitor is going to give that advice to a client after sale agreed, never mind 3 of them. And somehow the poster got this rare inside knowledge not once but 3 times. Yeah right.

You might come on here making up stories but I don’t. 3 different people I personally know that had all gone sale agreed were told by 3 different solicitors to offer less. So you are talking rubbish when you say none would. And they are the only people I know of at that stage. How is it rare inside knowledge? The people in question just told me that’s what their solicitors told them, very simple.

fliball123

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Good for you, presumably you can carry that risk. We sold and bought in the last recession. We sold for half the 2007 price and bought for half the 2007 price.

Prices before covid19 were still not back to 2007, so you may not have to wait as long. Personally, I think a seller would be mad to pull a sale for the sake of 20k, we've been considering another move, our asking price would be a lot lower than before Christmas!

KBC was saying 12% drop, that's more than 20k for average house in Dublin.

What risk that as night follows day and falls follow rises and rises follow falls and so on all you have to do is wait its always been a cycle. I think a seller if he thinks his/her property is worth that 20k extra would be mad to sell for less. If I had a house and putting it on the market and it was in a desirable area and in good condition I would be putting it up at what the prices where pre-covid.