Relaxation of Restrictions, Part IV - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

pjohnson

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I love how we have started to rewrite history now. Apparently a major recession was inevitable anyways and lots of businesses were on the verge of crashing anyways.

Of course its not true at all is it? Our economy was booming at the start of the year. We were close to full employment.
We had money put aside to assist with a hard brexit.

1. Debenhams first entered administration in April 2019 and started closing down multiple stores.

2. Bewleys cited massive losses in November 2019 due to their exorbitant rent.

3. Monsoon a year ago recieved a 12m injection and closed 40 stores just to try and stay in business.


And now all 3 are to close.

Unless you yourself are rewriting history to claim covid caused these businesses to struggle so badly in 2019 then they certainly were not "booming at the start of the year" and instead certainly "on the verge of crashing"

Snugglebunnies

pjohnson wrote: »

1. Debenhams first entered administration in April 2019 and started closing down multiple stores.

2. Bewleys cited massive losses in November 2019 due to their exorbitant rent.

3. Monsoon a year ago recieved a 12m injection and closed 40 stores just to try and stay in business.


And now all 3 are to close.

Unless you yourself are rewriting history to claim covid caused these businesses to struggle so badly in 2019 then they certainly were not "booming at the start of the year"

It's sad that those people are losing their jobs whether the businesses folding before covid or not. I count myself very lucky to still have employment.

Cork Boy 53

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Ruthless

But accurate.

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

Historically pandemics are followed by a boom as the underlying fundamentals are not impacted, and often new opportunities present themselves. For us Medtech is booming

Historically we didn't have lockdowns. It's this novel containment strategy which has tanked the economy.

pjohnson

pjohnson wrote: »

1. Debenhams first entered administration in April 2019 and started closing down multiple stores.

2. Bewleys cited massive losses in November 2019 due to their exorbitant rent.

3. Monsoon a year ago recieved a 12m injection and closed 40 stores just to try and stay in business.


And now all 3 are to close.

Unless you yourself are rewriting history to claim covid caused these businesses to struggle so badly in 2019 then they certainly were not "booming at the start of the year" and instead certainly "on the verge of crashing"

I never once mentioned individual companies. But it makes sense that the companies that were already struggling are first to go.

Most companies in Ireland weren't struggling though and will still be forced to close or cut large numbers of staff. A lot of business can't afford to just shut for 3 - 4 months. Lockdown will be reason that lots of companies close and lots of people lose their jobs.

Cork Boy 53

average_runner wrote: »

Invested in the tools so will do it home from here in. No more queues

Let us know how you get on. I am considering doing the same myself if barbers reopen with minimal or no public health measures in place.
Hopefully though there will only be a small minority who don`t obey the regulations.

Gael23

The plans for shopping centres are ridiculous and will cost many jobs

Cork Boy 53

the kelt wrote: »

Please, you're seeing stuff thats not there about a poster saying the lives of end of life patients isnt important and playing the virtue card yet on the same thread thanked a poster who said the following about a 60 year old man "The only solace is that he looks like absolute sh!t so I'd say he doesn't have much more in him"

And what is your opinion of this post in particular the part in bold?

facehugger99 wrote: »

When they run the analysis of deaths over 12/18 months compared with a 'normal' year it will expose just how fluffed the Covid-19 fatality rate hes been by including end-of-life patients.

The hysterical over-reaction and economic devastation has been completely disproportionate to the actual dangers of this virus to the vast majority of the population.

And anyone who is claiming that an 85 years old dying from Covid-19 is morally equivalent to a young child dying due to a lack of cancer screening/treatment is a moron.

acequion

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Are you not in the slightest concerned to see the disappearance and destruction of the high street?

They'll be worried fairly lively when austerity starts and we'll all have to don the green jersey yet again. Faux Covid concern can be very cheap.:rolleyes:

Snugglebunnies

Gael23 wrote: »

The plans for shopping centres are ridiculous and will cost many jobs

I was just reading an article about it on Facebook. Nearly every comment said that they wouldn't bother shopping with the restrictions in place. This will signal an end to many traditional shops as people will continue to shop online.

acequion

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

And what is your opinion of this post in particular the part in bold?

And what is your opinion and why did you embolden it?

I am one who believes that all lives matter regardless of age and have a problem with this notion that the very elderly are expendable just because old and frail. However sacrificing any group to protect another is wrong and the huge number of young people and children waiting on procedures and operations is very worrying.

Flickerfusion

The OECD actually forecasts Ireland doing about as well as Germany over the next two years and being economically very resilient.

We aren’t very tourism dependent, actually one of the least in the EU in that regard. It will have a bigger impact on some geographic regions than others but overall it isn’t that huge a chunk of the economy and it’s also more focused on the high spend, low volume type market. Most of our tourism industry isn’t that hard to reopen as it it quite socially distanced anyway.

Retail and so on will just take a bit of time to come back. I think basing anything on what was going on in March and April is just nuts. Of course the numbers are bad because the stores weren’t open.

We are barely 4 days into the retail reopening. We won’t be able to take any trends from it for about 2 or 3 weeks.

A very large part of the Irish economy did not shut down. We’ve tons or activity across sectors that were trading right through this - especially stuff like pharma, food, IT and financial sector businesses. Whether they’re Irish or multinational they’re still generating revenue, tax income and spend into the economy and once that has somewhere to go again, you will see pick up.

I suspect we will actually bounce back relatively robustly. We don’t have any of the structural issues we had in 2008 and went into this with a booming economy and also with a relatively respectable debt to gdp level which means we won’t be flattened by bond market risks.

Yeah, our debt will go up for a while but you’ll also have big fiscal and monetary stimulus.

We could even be in a totally different situation in 2021/2 where the Eurozone stimulus causes a major bubble and boom here.

I wouldn’t be overly pessimistic based on forum posts just yet.

We will know where the economy is at in September or so.

The biggest risk here could be a second wave. So I think we just need to be extremely aware of what’s going on and have contingencies in place. A big stockpile of PPE, know that we can activate the hospitals if needed, be able to ramp up the hygiene protocols and so on if we detect spikes.

My view of it is they the key over the next 6 to 12 months is going to be test, test, test and prevent rather than lock down again.

Rapid tests and better tests are also emerging at this stage that will make that task a easier and cheaper.

Cork Boy 53

Deleted User wrote: »

I love how we have started to rewrite history now. Apparently a major recession was inevitable anyways and lots of businesses were on the verge of crashing anyways.

Of course its not true at all is it? Our economy was booming at the start of the year. We were close to full employment.
We had money put aside to assist with a hard brexit.

Most respected economists were predicting there would be a major slump in the economy as a result of a hard or no deal Brexit which at the moment is looking highly likely to happen regardless of whether money was put aside or not so only a matter of time before this slump would happen even if the virus had never appeared.

ixoy

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Most respected economists were predicting there would be a major slump in the economy as a result of a hard or no deal Brexit

That's correct that it could likely be a economic disaster but No Deal Brexit + Covid-19 Lockdown is worse than just No Deal Brexit. It's a double whammy that could really cripple us.

Flickerfusion

Flickerfusion wrote: »

The OECD actually forecasts Ireland doing about as well as Germany over the next two years and being economically very resilient.

We aren’t very tourism dependent, actually one of the least in the EU in that regard. It will have a bigger impact on some geographic regions than others but overall it isn’t that huge a chunk of the economy and it’s also more focused on the high spend, low volume type market. Most of our tourism industry isn’t that hard to reopen as it it quite socially distanced anyway.

Retail and so on will just take a bit of time to come back. I think basing anything on what was going on in March and April is just nuts. Of course the numbers are bad because the stores weren’t open.

We are barely 4 days into the retail reopening. We won’t be able to take any trends from it for about 2 or 3 weeks.

A very large part of the Irish economy did not shut down. We’ve tons or activity across sectors that were trading right through this - especially stuff like pharma, food, IT and financial sector businesses. Whether they’re Irish or multinational they’re still generating revenue, tax income and spend into the economy and once that has somewhere to go again, you will see pick up.

I suspect we will actually bounce back relatively robustly. We don’t have any of the structural issues we had in 2008 and went into this with a booming economy and also with a relatively respectable debt to gdp level which means we won’t be flattened by bond market risks.

Yeah, our debt will go up for a while but you’ll also have big fiscal and monetary stimulus.

We could even be in a totally different situation in 2021/2 where the Eurozone stimulus causes a major bubble and boom here.

I wouldn’t be overly pessimistic based on forum posts just yet.

We will know where the economy is at in September or so.

The biggest risk here could be a second wave. So I think we just need to be extremely aware of what’s going on and have contingencies in place. A big stockpile of PPE, know that we can activate the hospitals if needed, be able to ramp up the hygiene protocols and so on if we detect spikes.

My view of it is they the key over the next 6 to 12 months is going to be test, test, test and prevent rather than lock down again.

Rapid tests and better tests are also emerging at this stage that will make that task a easier and cheaper.

Add in to this the fact that there is going to be a major contraction on supply chains and Ireland is in a better position than almost any country to capitalise on this

Cork Boy 53

acequion wrote: »

And what is your opinion and why did you embolden it?

I am one who believes that all lives matter regardless of age and have a problem with this notion that the very elderly are expendable just because old and frail. However sacrificing any group to protect another is wrong and the huge number of young people and children waiting on procedures and operations is very worrying.

If I were to post what I think of it I would probably get a permanent ban from boards but thanks for your input anyway.

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

Add in to this the fact that there is going to be a major contraction on supply chains and Ireland is in a better position than almost any country to capitalise on this

Why is that?

MickeyLeari

Pages 1 and 2 of the Irish Times today demonstrate the inconsistencies in the messaging and reporting of the Contact tracing issue.

is_that_so

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Pages 1 and 2 of the Irish Times today demonstrate the inconsistencies in the messaging and reporting of the Contact tracing issue.

One person with 25 contacts will mess with numbers. There is no context to it. With the low demand, at an average of 4 contacts or even at an average of 10 you could easily make the calls and test in a day.

is_that_so

Snugglebunnies wrote: »

I was just reading an article about it on Facebook. Nearly every comment said that they wouldn't bother shopping with the restrictions in place. This will signal an end to many traditional shops as people will continue to shop online.

Long-term yes, for a few weeks or even a couple of months no.

Snugglebunnies

is_that_so wrote: »

Long-term yes, for a few weeks or even a couple of months no.

Well there's no end to social distancing measures in sight so these restrictions could well be long term.

the kelt

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

And what is your opinion of this post in particular the part in bold?

My opinion is that everyones life matters no matter what their age, 16/60 or 85 and i dont wish harm on anyone even if i dont agree with their opinion.

How are you fixed in regards to wishing harm on others that dont agree with your opinion?

Cork Boy 53

the kelt wrote: »

My opinion is that everyones life matters no matter what their age, 16/60 or 85 and i dont wish harm on anyone even if i dont agree with their opinion.

How are you fixed in regards to wishing harm on others that dont agree with your opinion?

What you are getting at is a closed issue as far as I am concerned and I have no further comment to make about it.

Ginger n Lemon

TAOISEACH Leo Varadkar has said he's "deeply sorry" that some people are living in fear or have experienced domestic violence due to the coronavirus lockdown.

Mr Varadkar made the remarks in the Dáil as he said he said work is being carried out to see if the country can be almost fully reopened from mid-July.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/varadkar-deeply-sorry-some-live-in-fear-of-domestic-violence-due-to-covid-19-lockdown-39278189.html

finally, some acknowledgement of what goes on

ninebeanrows

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

TAOISEACH Leo Varadkar has said he's "deeply sorry" that some people are living in fear or have experienced domestic violence due to the coronavirus lockdown.

Mr Varadkar made the remarks in the Dáil as he said he said work is being carried out to see if the country can be almost fully reopened from mid-July.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/varadkar-deeply-sorry-some-live-in-fear-of-domestic-violence-due-to-covid-19-lockdown-39278189.html

finally, some acknowledgement of what goes on

If the pubs can reopen it will at least relieve some pressure from the household having 'the problem person' out of the house for a large portion of the day.

ninebeanrows

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

If the pubs can reopen it will at least relieve some pressure from the household having 'the problem person' out of the house for a large portion of the day.

Usually with a good feed when they get home they are asleep not too long after. Better than abuse all day long.

is_that_so

Snugglebunnies wrote: »

Well there's no end to social distancing measures in sight so these restrictions could well be long term.

I don't believe they will be. For all the alleged non-compliance we know about this thing now and what we need to do.

Ginger n Lemon

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Usually with a good feed when they get home they are asleep not too long after. Better than abuse all day long.

People just need to have an option really.

The theme from Irish newspapers/RTE is that once places open they will be swarmed with people climbing on top of each other. When in reality this wont happen for many many more months (potentially, depending on risk appetite of some citizens towards diseases/health, may not happen for years)

I am not talking about nightclubs or concerts btw

crossman47

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

If the pubs can reopen it will at least relieve some pressure from the household having 'the problem person' out of the house for a large portion of the day.

Not so sure. Drink is often the trigger for violence.

Cork Boy 53

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

If the pubs can reopen it will at least relieve some pressure from the household having 'the problem person' out of the house for a large portion of the day.

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Usually with a good feed when they get home they are asleep not too long after. Better than abuse all day long.

Your point is valid but reopening of pubs to be rid of people who engage in domestic violence is only a temporary measure and in the long term the issue will still be there without other steps being taken.