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The Permanent Job Losses Thread

  • 01-05-2020 7:11am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,395 ✭✭✭ GazzaL


    Companies of all sizes are going to collapse as a result of the lockdown. Huge numbers of temporary job losses will become permanent, and there will be a high number of long-term unemployed as a result.

    Companies who had issues coming into this crisis are in big trouble. We've already seen some big names like Debenhams and Oasis go into liquidation/administration.

    Many healthy businesses will also collapse as they can't sustain the costs of continuing with these lockdown measures, or they will let go of staff due to reduced demand for their products and services. This is most unfortunate, because most busineses could re-open safely tomorrow. SMEs have been sourcing hand sanitiser, PPE, and implementing social distancing plans since before the lockdown and can operate as safely, if not more safely, than supermarkets and other businesses which have been allowed to continue trading.

    12,000 jobs are being cut in British Airways, and we can expect job losses in Aer Lingus too who are also part of IAG. Ryanair, who have one of the healthiest balance sheets in the business, have warned this morning of 3000 job cuts.

    Here's a graph of forecast permanent job losses.

    chart-trend-exponential-up-512.png

    Thanks Leo. Thanks Tony.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 16,941 ✭✭✭✭ kippy


    GazzaL wrote: »
    Companies of all sizes are going to collapse as a result of the lockdown. Huge numbers of temporary job losses will become permanent, and there will be a high number of long-term unemployed as a result.

    Companies who had issues coming into this crisis are in big trouble. We've already seen some big names like Debenhams and Oasis go into liquidation/administration.

    Many healthy businesses will also collapse as they can't sustain the costs of continuing with these lockdown measures, or they will let go of staff due to reduced demand for their products and services. This is most unfortunate, because most busineses could re-open safely tomorrow. SMEs have been sourcing hand sanitiser, PPE, and implementing social distancing plans since before the lockdown and can operate as safely, if not more safely, than supermarkets and other businesses which have been allowed to continue trading.

    12,000 jobs are being cut in British Airways, and we can expect job losses in Aer Lingus too who are also part of IAG. Ryanair, who have one of the healthiest balance sheets in the business, have warned this morning of 3000 job cuts.

    Here's a graph of forecast permanent job losses.

    chart-trend-exponential-up-512.png

    Thanks Leo. Thanks Tony.

    How simplistic a view on this you have.
    You don't think that the unrestricted spread of the virus wouldn't have caused worse job losses amongst other things?

    You reckon you can blame Job losses in airlines and multinational companies on Irish actions?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,281 ✭✭✭ PlentyOhToole


    Thanks Leo?

    Why precisely is this Leo’s fault?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,279 ✭✭✭✭ fits


    I’d rather weather the financial storm for a year or two than be dead.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    Professor McConkey during the week on Morning Ireland stated health and the economy cannot be pitted against each other. He stated wealth generation is necessary for health. You need a healthy economy to be able to pay for all the services we consume.
    I find the disconnect people have from how important the economy is distrubing. Do people seriously believe the lack of funding for services after the financial crash didn't result in premature deaths?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,395 ✭✭✭ GazzaL


    kippy wrote: »
    How simplistic a view on this you have.
    You don't think that the unrestricted spread of the virus wouldn't have caused worse job losses amongst other things?

    You reckon you can blame Job losses in airlines and multinational companies on Irish actions?
    We need to allow economic activity to resume while using social distancing. We've hit our containment targets, R0 has been at 0.5 for weeks. An indefinite lockdown, not allowing people to see their families, forcing companies out of business, and not treating non-COVID patients will result in exceptional morbidity. I have talked about "companies of all sizes", not just multinationals.

    Thanks Leo?

    Why precisely is this Leo’s fault?
    There isn't sufficient consideration being given to the economic devastation that is taking place. In the list of 5 key priorities, it's debatable whether it's covered under "Risk of secondary morbidity due to the restrictions themselves".

    fits wrote: »
    I’d rather weather the financial storm for a year or two than be dead.
    The longer the lockdown continues, the bigger the negative impact. People will be trying to pick up the pieces for a lot longer than a year or two!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,966 ✭✭✭ ceadaoin.


    fits wrote: »
    I’d rather weather the financial storm for a year or two than be dead.

    99%+ of people who are infected with covid19 will survive. I'm not sure the same is going to be said about the economic and emotional consequences of an extended lockdown. Not everyone is going to be able to "weather the storm". Good for you if you can, I can too, but I am very concerned about those who can't.

    This virtue signaling about how anyone who is beginning to doubt the merits of quarantining healthy people is a selfish arsehole who is directly responsible for people dying is becoming tiresome. Its bordering on emotional blackmail at this stage. Think logically.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    fits wrote: »
    I’d rather weather the financial storm for a year or two than be dead.

    Considering the fatality rate unless you have an underlying condition you will have a greater chance of dying from something else in the next year or two rather than Covid.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,395 ✭✭✭ GazzaL


    Professor McConkey during the week on Morning Ireland stated health and the economy cannot be pitted against each other. He stated wealth generation is necessary for health. You need a healthy economy to be able to pay for all the services we consume.
    I find the disconnect people have from how important the economy is distrubing. Do people seriously believe the lack of funding for services after the financial crash didn't result in premature deaths?

    Some people have the memory of a goldfish. How long did it take everyone to feel the recovery from the last recession? Many of these people would have been banging their drums about health and housing a few months ago. Good luck funding either of those after this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    Considering the fatality rate unless you have an underlying condition you will have a greater chance of dying from something else in the next year or two rather than Covid.

    If you need a procedure for some other reason and arrive at a hospital overwhelmed by cases because we open up too early you may die sooner than you expect


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,217 ✭✭✭ Lurching


    Professor McConkey during the week on Morning Ireland stated health and the economy cannot be pitted against each other. He stated wealth generation is necessary for health. You need a healthy economy to be able to pay for all the services we consume.
    I find the disconnect people have from how important the economy is distrubing. Do people seriously believe the lack of funding for services after the financial crash didn't result in premature deaths?

    It's chicken and egg. Without health, there is no economy.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,395 ✭✭✭ GazzaL


    raind wrote: »
    If you need a procedure for some other reason and arrive at a hospital overwhelmed by cases because we open up too early you may die sooner than you expect

    The hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Our ICUs are only at 33% capacity. We're paying €115m per month to keep private hospitals 75% empty. https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/calls-to-revisit-private-hospital-deal-as-beds-lying-empty-despite-115m-per-month-cost-to-taxpayer-996616.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,483 ✭✭✭ Ordinary man


    GazzaL wrote: »
    The hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Our ICUs are only at 33% capacity. We're paying €115m per month to keep private hospitals 75% empty. https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/calls-to-revisit-private-hospital-deal-as-beds-lying-empty-despite-115m-per-month-cost-to-taxpayer-996616.html

    all that applies during the lockdown, do you think it would stay the same if restrictions were all lifted?


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,241 ✭✭✭✭ road_high


    Going to be a very busy thread unfortunately. Some people think this is some kind of free holiday. Business that would never have gone under even in past recessions will go to the wall.
    Debenhams are the most obvious to date, airlines and hospitality have had major job losses already.
    Many thought on closure mid March it would only be a two or three week thing. It’s unprecedented now to be heading for two months of closure and unsustainable


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,130 ✭✭✭ Del Griffith


    fits wrote: »
    I’d rather weather the financial storm for a year or two than be dead.

    A year or two?! Try a generation or two of repaying this if the economy isn't restarted this summer


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    GazzaL wrote: »
    Some people have the memory of a goldfish. How long did it take everyone to feel the recovery from the last recession? Many of these people would have been banging their drums about health and housing a few months ago. Good luck funding either of those after this.

    How long does it take to recover from dying?

    There will also be vast amount of liquidity available from global central banks to stimulate recovery in all areas. This is not like the 2008 global financial crisis in that in the bailout good money went after bad to stop global default on debt and essentially plugged a black hole. This time there are viable businesses and projects in need of liquidity to return to previous state as the latent demand is still there.

    The economy is not a zero sum game. We will be borrowing from the future and hoping long term we can grow our way back


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    raind wrote: »
    If you need a procedure for some other reason and arrive at a hospital overwhelmed by cases because we open up too early you may die sooner than you expect

    My future daughter in law had a life changing operation cancelled due to this crisis, yet private hospitals are at 1/3 capacity. 400+ private hospital consultants/surgeons sitting at home twiddling their thumbs due to contract hurdles. So gone tell me how important is to keep the country locked done. Procedures have been cancelled to keep beds free, how many lives will be lost because that policy or far worse outcomes to a condition because it is not being dealt with now.
    Only yesterday I read a poster being guilted on his behaviour that could cause him to occupy a bed instead of it being available for a Covid patient.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    GazzaL wrote: »
    The hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Our ICUs are only at 33% capacity. We're paying €115m per month to keep private hospitals 75% empty. https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/calls-to-revisit-private-hospital-deal-as-beds-lying-empty-despite-115m-per-month-cost-to-taxpayer-996616.html

    Why do you think the hospitals aren't overwhelmed?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    Lurching wrote: »
    It's chicken and egg. Without health, there is no economy.

    It's not a chicken and egg sorry. Commerce is what allows one have good health.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    raind wrote: »
    Why do you think the hospitals aren't overwhelmed?

    Because they stuffed the elderly into nursing homes/ long term care facilities and now that is where nearly all the clusters are and most of the deaths.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,966 ✭✭✭ ceadaoin.


    raind wrote: »
    If you need a procedure for some other reason and arrive at a hospital overwhelmed by cases because we open up too early you may die sooner than you expect

    In the past, the winter vomiting bug has caused hospitals to become overwhelmed in Ireland. This hasn't. The majority of Healthcare systems haven't come anywhere near being overwhelmed because of covid19. People aren't receiving other life saving treatment though. People are avoiding going to hospitals when they probably desperately need to. Where I live, many hospital workers are having their hours reduced or being laid off. In the midst of a pandemic that will supposedly flood hospitals, they are actually emptier than ever


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    Professor McConkey during the week on Morning Ireland stated health and the economy cannot be pitted against each other. He stated wealth generation is necessary for health. You need a healthy economy to be able to pay for all the services we consume.
    I find the disconnect people have from how important the economy is distrubing. Do people seriously believe the lack of funding for services after the financial crash didn't result in premature deaths?

    McConkey has also said we should take a bit more short term pain with a deeper lockdown than we have now, so that when we do reopen sectors of the economy we can do more and have significantly less risk of yo-yo ing


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    raind wrote: »
    McConkey has also said we should take a bit more short term pain with a deeper lockdown than we have now, so that when we do reopen sectors of the economy we can do more and have significantly less risk of yo-yo ing

    A deepening lockdown would not be tolerated now, that horse has bolted since early March. A yo yoing of restrictions, not going to be tolerated either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    In the past, the winter vomiting bug has caused hospitals to become overwhelmed in Ireland. This hasn't. The majority of Healthcare systems haven't come anywhere near being overwhelmed because of covid19. People aren't receiving other life saving treatment though. People are avoiding going to hospitals when they probably desperately need to. Where I live, many hospital workers are having their hours reduced or being laid off. In the midst of a pandemic that will supposedly flood hospitals, they are actually emptier than ever

    And nothing that has been done anywhere has prevented the healthcare system from being overan?

    And Lombardy, Madrid, London, New York have been pretty bad


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,966 ✭✭✭ ceadaoin.


    raind wrote: »
    And nothing that has been done anywhere has prevented the healthcare system from being overan?

    And Lombardy, Madrid, London, New York have been pretty bad

    Even in New York, they didn't need any of the extra beds that they set up. The hospitals were not overwhelmed. Same in London, the field hospital sits empty.

    I don't know why Lombardy was such an exception. No doubt we will find out in time, I expect it will be found that a specific set of circumstances led to the system becoming overwhelmed in such a bad way.

    From what I can see, reopening but keeping social distancing measures in place as much as possible, and wearing masks in public is the way forward.


  • Registered Users Posts: 782 ✭✭✭ Zenify


    My future daughter in law had a life changing operation cancelled due to this crisis, yet private hospitals are at 1/3 capacity. 400+ private hospital consultants/surgeons sitting at home twiddling their thumbs due to contract hurdles. So gone tell me how important is to keep the country locked done. Procedures have been cancelled to keep beds free, how many lives will be lost because that policy or far worse outcomes to a condition because it is not being dealt with now.
    Only yesterday I read a poster being guilted on his behaviour that could cause him to occupy a bed instead of it being available for a Covid patient.

    Would you like that future daughter in law to be in a vulnerable recovery state and catch Covid-19? Very high mortality rate in hospitals with sick people.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ completedit


    Nah, the firepower behind this is too much. We will fire up the printing press and the economies of the western world will bounce back.

    But this raises a moral question. Why can the rich westerners/Europeans print ourselves out of hardship while billions still live in poverty?
    Risk of inflation? I get that for us deflation is the problem so we have the space to flex our muscles especially since there has been an artificial drop in (acted upon) demand


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,799 ✭✭✭ raind


    A deepening lockdown would not be tolerated now, that horse has bolted since early March. A yo yoing of restrictions, not going to be tolerated either.

    Long term it may be best for both the economy and society however as it will allow close to normal living (within the country) once 4 to 6 weeks are over. Go too soon and we will only be able to allow minor incremental relaxations with the high risk of returning to current status there for 9-12 months


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ Plumbthedepths


    Zenify wrote: »
    Would you like that future daughter in law to be in a vulnerable recovery state and catch Covid-19? Very high mortality rate in hospitals with sick people.
    She is presently in a more vulnerable state by not having her operation. The details however I won't be sharing.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 11,205 Mod ✭✭✭✭ hmmm


    A deepening lockdown would not be tolerated now, that horse has bolted since early March. A yo yoing of restrictions, not going to be tolerated either.
    Based on the current models of how the disease progresses, you can't have both. You have to pick one.

    We can choose to get cases very low now, and try and prevent the growth of new cases using contact tracing and testing. Or, we can stay at the current level, and accept that we will need repeated phases of opening and lockdowns.

    The first option (the South Korean model) has only worked in a single country, although very successfully there, but it will only work if the number of cases are very low. We still have hundreds of new cases every day.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,003 ✭✭✭ The_Dazzler


    Professor McConkey during the week on Morning Ireland stated health and the economy cannot be pitted against each other. He stated wealth generation is necessary for health. You need a healthy economy to be able to pay for all the services we consume.
    I find the disconnect people have from how important the economy is distrubing. Do people seriously believe the lack of funding for services after the financial crash didn't result in premature deaths?

    Glad to know in between whoring himself out on TV left, right and centre, he had time to become an expert in economics.


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