Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Beasty

easypazz wrote: »

Why are you fixated on the R number?

Cocoon the vulnerable groups and the whole thing changes.

I was responding to another poster who mentioned it

However it is the most fundamental mathematical concept relating to this virus, and is the one thing that all people with responsibility for trying to control this are fixated on

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

If you are under 80 with those stats the survival odd's are greatly stacked in your favour.

20% plus of the population would need to cocoon for 12 months plus, not just the old, the you count those who live with them and you are probably closer roll to 30% of the population who cannot engage in economic activity for the long term. Massive impact on the remainder of the workforce from that. Take care in reopening will allow the bulk of those to also start engaging in economic activity, and though we would have a slower return to normality, we would actually ultimately get an embedded and sustained recovery

Beasty

New thread here

I'll leave this one open for a few minutes in case anyone wishes to make any further responses to recent posts

FintanMcluskey

Deleted User wrote: »

20% plus of the population would need to cocoon for 12 months plus, not just the old, the you count those who live with them and you are probably closer roll to 30% of the population who cannot engage in economic activity for the long term. Massive impact on the remainder of the workforce from that. Take care in reopening will allow the bulk of those to also start engaging in economic activity, and though we would have a slower return to normality, we would actually ultimately get an embedded and sustained recovery

But the reopening is not happening and currently 100% are isolated indefinitely.

The sum total of the information we can get is the the numbers need to be as low as possible.

On the build up to May 5th, we had been span lies about RO below 1 and ICU not overran and even though those targets were met the restrictions were extended.

I have no doubt the restrictions will continue as is beyond May 18th because the NPHET is unchallenged and the testing numbers won't be high enough. What has happened today is devoid of all signs of any easing of restrictions.

FintanMcluskey

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But the reopening is not happening and currently 100% are isolated indefinitely.

The sum total of the information we can get is the the numbers need to be as low as possible.

On the build up to May 5th, we had been span lies about RO below 1 and ICU not overran and even though those targets were met the restrictions were extended.

I have no doubt the restrictions will continue as is beyond May 18th because the NPHET is unchallenged and the testing numbers won't be high enough. What has happened today is devoid of all signs of any easing of restrictions.

I would take a bet with you on that. 18th will happen as planned and next phase will add more businesses to the scope. Today was wrong decision but was department of Ed decision

Dickie10

so do people think we could be pushed back another 2 weeks of this on may 18th?

JPCN1

Dickie10 wrote: »

so do people think we could be pushed back another 2 weeks of this on may 18th?

Not a chance imo.

Breezin

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

But the reopening is not happening and currently 100% are isolated indefinitely.

The sum total of the information we can get is the the numbers need to be as low as possible.

On the build up to May 5th, we had been span lies about RO below 1 and ICU not overran and even though those targets were met the restrictions were extended.

I have no doubt the restrictions will continue as is beyond May 18th because the NPHET is unchallenged and the testing numbers won't be high enough. What has happened today is devoid of all signs of any easing of restrictions.

They are doubling down. They over-compensated for early laxity with a hard, dumb sledgehammer.
Now they don't have anything in their toolkit other than punitive restrictions and shifting goalposts. Meanwhile a vaccine is nowhere in sight.

castletownman

So 152 deaths in total among people under the age of 70 ie. the working population.

Wow. It's crazy how the economy is being made suffer for such low figures all things considered.

growleaves

This whole episode is the oddest thing that has ever happened.

There's no indication that covid is significantly more lethal than e.g. the flu of 2017-18.

Yet I don't remember anyone saying 'how many deaths will there be?' In fact I don't remember the flu of 2017-18 at all.

If people are that concerned with death from respiraory viruses then why haven't we already diverted all our tax monies to buy ventilators, given private donations to increase ICU capacity etc. Why wasn't the 'Beijing flu' of 1997 a wake-up call etc.?

This monomania is both very focused and very sudden.