Relaxation of restrictions Part II

What Username Guidelines

JRant wrote: »

I don't think they meant in the fake sense. Would be interesting to see that Californian study though. 0.1 to 0.3 percent would mean a complete sea change in how we deal with this.

I do think it’s important to find out the IFR but NYC has seen almost 0.1% of its population killed and Bergamo in Italy has seen 0.25% killed. Bergamo still reporting about 25 odd cases a day after weeks after lockdown.

The issue with these antibody surveys is that they are done in hard-hit or not hard-hit areas. Demographics is important too. If you’ve an area with lots of older people and high obesity rates you’ll see a higher IFR than say the french aircraft carrier.

These studies are important and can garner lots of interesting analysis, but I don’t see how they’d change our response. Even if the IFR was the same as flu, how would that impact response? It being a new virus, with the whole population susceptible, means overrun health systems everywhere without restrictions.

I mean it’s great news and just means we’re further through this than expected, but still need to be sure we can handle it.

drunkmonkey

JRant wrote: »

I don't think they meant in the fake sense. Would be interesting to see that Californian study though. 0.1 to 0.3 percent would mean a complete sea change in how we deal with this.

This is the flu in the states..



I'd believe the cases of coronavirus is much larger if the flu is anything to go by. Not the deaths but the people infected, most never knew I'd guess.

Danno

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Thats the was it was span in RTE.
He released this report and resigned.
https://sway.office.com/PwTN7GCvJWDgn9yd?ref=Link
I hope that link works

That was one eye-opening read. Thank you very much for sharing.

FintanMcluskey

Danno wrote: »

That was one eye-opening read. Thank you very much for sharing.

Everyone needs to have a read and be aware the author is a doctor appointed to the irish medical council by Simon Harris who then resigned

KrustyUCC

Simon Harris apologises for suggesting there were 18 previous coronaviruses

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/simon-harris-apologises-for-suggesting-there-were-18-previous-coronaviruses-995582.html

Not Harris best moment

Bit worrying when he's a big part of government decision making

FintanMcluskey

bettyoleary wrote: »

He believes the govt have messed up royally but I'm not so sure if they did. Why would he be the only person involved in Govt to grasp this. I think they knew exactly what they were doing from the start and know exactly what they will be doing until the end and no matter how much we argue amongst ourselves the future is decided. They have a very very good idea of the trajectory of this disease now and unless a vaccine is found to work they wont be changing their plan.

USA, UK, Ireland they know what they are going to do. and who their plan will benefit and it will be largely themselves.

Betty I've just seen this comment. Your right they no exactly what they are doing. Im all fuzzy with faith in Simon. Now tell me this, is the post preceding this one a link to Simon talking about the 18 Coronavirus before Covid 19?

Strumms

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Simon Harris apologises for suggesting there were 18 previous coronaviruses

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/simon-harris-apologises-for-suggesting-there-were-18-previous-coronaviruses-995582.html

Not Harris best moment

Bit worrying when he's a big part of government decision making

Hmm yeah my initial impression was similar but like him or otherwise he’s under tremendous pressure, he must be working some hours... it’s an unprecedented position for any health minister to be in, he’s 33, got a family and if he is going to fûck up I’d rather it be blurting out some dodgy statistics but getting the big decisions right that will safeguard the health of the nation and its citizens... good luck to him, and everyone in this war.

Polar101

I wonder how dentists could open - it's going to be difficult to keep them closed for months, yet it's hard to think of any other profession that would be more at risk for Covid infections.

Kermit.de.frog

drunkmonkey wrote: »

This is the flu in the states..



I'd believe the cases of coronavirus is much larger if the flu is anything to go by. Not the deaths but the people infected, most never knew I'd guess.

The max deaths mentioned there are the record entire 18/19 season.

There are now 47,500 deaths related to COVID in the last 58 days alone in the US.

If you look at the epicenter, New York, for example...

dalyboy

Polar101 wrote: »

I wonder how dentists could open - it's going to be difficult to keep them closed for months, yet it's hard to think of any other profession that would be more at risk for Covid infections.

Dentists have (and always had) THE most stringent hygiene preparation in place before anyone sits in their chair. The dentist is gloved/masked/goggled (dentist safe) , the practice area and dental tool sterilisation occurs after every patient attendance (patient safe) , should open tomorrow in my opinion.

ceadaoin.

dalyboy wrote: »

Dentists have (and always had) THE most stringent hygiene preparation in place before anyone sits in their chair. The dentist is gloved/masked/goggled (dentist safe) , the practice area and dental tool sterilisation occurs after every patient attendance (patient safe) , should open tomorrow in my opinion.

That all means nothing when the viruses is aerosolised and sprayed all over the room during procedures. Its extremely high risk and the standard PPE dentists use would not be sufficient protection. Every surface would be contaminated.

BettyBoo2011

Hi all,

I read this link earlier in case of interest to anyone:

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/11/health/european-countries-reopening-coronavirus-intl/index.html

I think in fairness no government can know what the best balance is right now and only time will tell. I think the pressure will start to come on a lot more given it will be over 5 weeks of a full lock down and the country is on its knees now economically in fairness.

I do hope we start to lift restrictions and more importantly that they communicate all the stages of exit even if they can’t say when exactly.. at least then businesses like dentists, hotels or hairdressers might have some sense what wave they are in etc.. It’s likely hotels and Air BnBs could get very busy later this year (if allowed open/practising social distancing) as likely will be a year of mostly staycations for anyone who will still want a break away and can afford it

fleet_admiral

DellyBelly wrote: »

I think we can safely. this virus is definitely going to be the story of the year. Unless the Queen dies maybe.. That would be the only thing to top it in my opinion.

Id say there's a few years left in Michael D yet

snowcat

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/17/theres-no-direct-evidence-that-the-lockdowns-are-working/

Jim Gazebo

Polar101 wrote: »

I wonder how dentists could open - it's going to be difficult to keep them closed for months, yet it's hard to think of any other profession that would be more at risk for Covid infections.

They'll need to get them open. People's health will deteriorate. It is a risk that will have to be taken with correct ppe. We can't live in fear.

Jim Gazebo

ceadaoin. wrote: »

That all means nothing when the viruses is aerosolised and sprayed all over the room during procedures. Its extremely high risk and the standard PPE dentists use would not be sufficient protection. Every surface would be contaminated.

And your assuming that someone goes in there with the virus as well. Ffs if everyone is doing what they are supposed to at the moment and you don't have it then you have a very small chance of having it. It's easy to find a risk in absolutely anything if you think long enough.

pjohnson

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

And your assuming that someone goes in there with the virus as well. Ffs if everyone is doing what they are supposed to at the moment and you don't have it then you have a very small chance of having it. It's easy to find a risk in absolutely anything if you think long enough.

Yep. The best "solutions" often appear to involve the minimum amount of thinking.

drunkmonkey

snowcat wrote: »

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/17/theres-no-direct-evidence-that-the-lockdowns-are-working/

Everyone needs to read that.

growleaves

pjohnson wrote: »

Yep. The best "solutions" often appear to involve the minimum amount of thinking.

That minimum amount of thinking is more than what you're contributing.

Deaths from untreated abscesses are incredibly painful. Are we cancelling modern dentistry "to be on the safe side"?

GooglePlus

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Everyone needs to read that.

Seems to be just one retired docs opinion, nothing in that article at all really?

Hardly a must ready, we know that these measures in place are unprecedented and that they could be too strict or lenient but we won't know for sure until we look back at it all.

With our health system in mind, I'd rather err on the side of caution.

facehugger99

snowcat wrote: »

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/17/theres-no-direct-evidence-that-the-lockdowns-are-working/

The hysterical over-reaction to Covid-19 may prove to even more damaging in the future if we are faced with an actually dangerous pandemic.

'The boy who cried wolf' springs to mind.

Merry Prankster

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Everyone needs to read that.

This isn't much of a surprise - it seems that the more you are to the right, the more you concentrate on the economic rather than health aspects of the outbreak. Just an observation. (I'm referring to the politics of Spiked, not DrunkMonkey).

JRant

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

I do think it’s important to find out the IFR but NYC has seen almost 0.1% of its population killed and Bergamo in Italy has seen 0.25% killed. Bergamo still reporting about 25 odd cases a day after weeks after lockdown.

The issue with these antibody surveys is that they are done in hard-hit or not hard-hit areas. Demographics is important too. If you’ve an area with lots of older people and high obesity rates you’ll see a higher IFR than say the french aircraft carrier.

These studies are important and can garner lots of interesting analysis, but I don’t see how they’d change our response. Even if the IFR was the same as flu, how would that impact response? It being a new virus, with the whole population susceptible, means overrun health systems everywhere without restrictions.

I mean it’s great news and just means we’re further through this than expected, but still need to be sure we can handle it.

You've answered your own question there. Know how this effects different demographics is super important is tailoring a response.

We should be targeting specific areas rather than a blanket approach now. This has the benefit of funneling a finite amount of resources into areas where it will be most effective.

is_that_so

facehugger99 wrote: »

The hysterical over-reaction to Covid-19 may prove to even more damaging in the future if we are faced with an actually dangerous pandemic.

'The boy who cried wolf' springs to mind.

It strikes me you really didn't read through what he said. He does mention the risks and dangers of the disease. His comments are also in the context of the US approach.

GazzaL

The daily increase of cars and vans on the road continues.

facehugger99

GazzaL wrote: »

The daily increase of cars and vans on the road continues.

That's good news.

People are trying to keep the economy going despite the Govts best efforts to suffocate it.

I will continue to do my best to support local business as much as possible, using online services where available.

Pitch n Putt

GazzaL wrote: »

The daily increase of cars and vans on the road continues.

Yes the lockdown is effectively over lots more people on the move and businesses opening up.

This will be accelerated now after yesterday’s boo boo by Minister Harris.

Who’s going to continue to take advice from the government when they don’t even have their facts right after two months of this.?

NPHET are running the country in reality and that’s a bad sign as conservatism on any lifting of restrictions is their approach

How can NPHET have the power to effectively implement a policy to pay frontline workers partners to stay at home with full pay to mind their children??

The tail is wagging the dog now. Yes the government needs advice on the situation and probably someone to blame when there’s questions to be answered but at the end of the day governments should govern

_Kaiser_

GazzaL wrote: »

The daily increase of cars and vans on the road continues.

Because the reality is that for the overwhelming majority of people, the risk to them from this thing can be managed with some sensible precautions and a bit of cop on.

Which is exactly what's needed if we're to avoid economic and social disaster. IT reporting that the next round of measures will be far more divisive (extending rent freezes and reducing welfare supports). I think reality will set in among the "lock it down" advocates soon enough

Merry Prankster

facehugger99 wrote: »

The hysterical over-reaction to Covid-19 may prove to even more damaging in the future if we are faced with an actually dangerous pandemic.

'The boy who cried wolf' springs to mind.

Even if, with the benefit of hindsight, we learn that the global lockdowns went too far, they were based upon current best medical knowledge and practice. It they hadn't been introduced and the death toll were much higher, the same critics would be berating governments for not taking it seriously enough.

It's easy to forget just how uncertain everything was at the beginning. But sure hindsight is a wonderful thing - if you'd had it a while ago, you might have been able to modify previous comments by yourself, like this one from the 10th March:

facehugger99 wrote: »

I'll predict right now that we'll see more road fatalities in Ireland in 2020 than we do deaths from Cornavirus.

Proportionate and measure response required, not hysterical overreaction driven by the social-media scare-merchants.

...or this one, from the same day...

facehugger99 wrote: »

Today's figures from the UK don't appear to be showing any exponential growth in numbers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51822618

No doubt you are able to hear that train wreck approaching though anyway.

...or this one, from the 14th March...

facehugger99 wrote: »

I'd say we'll look back in 12 months and wish we'd followed the UK approach.

We've never produced the same caliber of politician as a country. We're stuck with lads that follow the social media winds. Afraid to make the tough but right decisions.

Cork Boy 53

Merry Prankster wrote: »

Even if, with the benefit of hindsight, we learn that the global lockdowns went too far, they were based upon current best medical knowledge and practice. It they hadn't been introduced and the death toll were much higher, the same critics would be berating governments for not taking it seriously enough.

It's easy to forget just how uncertain everything was at the beginning. But sure hindsight is a wonderful thing - if you'd had it a while ago, you might have been able to modify previous comments by yourself, like this one from the 10th March:



...or this one, from the same day...



...or this one, from the 14th March...

TBH if you take a look at this poster`s previous posting history you will see that he has a track record of authority bashing combined with large amounts of ranting and raving that would suggest his comments should be best ignored for the ramblings that they are.