Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Ulysses Gaze

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Is Liam O Neill a qualified public health specialist like Philly Mcmahon, who was on Claire Byrne?
These guys need to crawl back under a rock and let the economists take over pronto. Ill listen to an economist suggestions, the media loving doctors and spoofers have had their say

Economics is a Pseudoscience.

JRant

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

LOL.

Glad I don't watch TV anymore it's all about the worst case scenario.

We just have to be careful, and mindful and keep our distance. It's not rocket science, but it's difficult not seeing family.

The radius may change to 5 or 10 k. That would be great for me to see family. But I will cope if not.

Have to be resilient and go with the flow for everyone's sake really.

Spot on. If everyone is just careful then the need for lockdowns disappears. Life without family is no life at all IMO.

timmy_mallet

JRant wrote: »

He was asked about the possibility of GAA matches going ahead and went on a ramble about young children possibly dieing from this and the GAA won't take the chance.

Well if this virus kills off the GAA it won't have been that bad after all

fr336

Just curious. If it was affecting working age individuals just as badly as the over 60s, would those wanting to quickly reopen everything be as keen? I mean what would the difference be? In fact if the virus mutates and starts killing working age people in relatively small numbers as it is doing with older people at the moment (like Corona is doing, UK population 65 mil death rate circa 20k), can I come back here and say "Lockdown? I don't want a lockdown. People die. Happens all the time."? And if not, why not?

timmy_mallet

fr336 wrote: »

Just curious. If it was affecting working age individuals just as badly as the over 60s, would those wanting to quickly reopen everything be as keen? I mean what would the difference be? In fact if the virus mutates and starts killing working age people in relatively small numbers as it is doing with older people at the moment (like Corona is doing, UK population 65 mil death rate circa 20k), can I come back here and say "Lockdown? I don't want a lockdown. People die. Happens all the time."? And if not, why not?

Yes.

JRant

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Economics is a Pseudoscience.

Speaking of pseudoscience, those models of doom predicting 100s of thousands of deaths would certainly fit into that category.

timmy_mallet

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Economics is a Pseudoscience.

Not sure what the point is here?

FintanMcluskey

fr336 wrote: »

Just curious. If it was affecting working age individuals just as badly as the over 60s, would those wanting to quickly reopen everything be as keen? I mean what would the difference be? In fact if the virus mutates and starts killing working age people in relatively small numbers as it is doing with older people at the moment (like Corona is doing, UK population 65 mil death rate circa 20k), can I come back here and say "Lockdown? I don't want a lockdown. People die. Happens all the time."? And if not, why not?

Well its effecting 0.2% of the population over 65.
So, yes Id take my chances with no lockdown.
0.2%. To be honest, I take my chances with a 50% kill rate. If I was that worried about living Id look after myself a lot better, but Ill take enjoyment over extra years in a nursing home

Ulysses Gaze

JRant wrote: »

Speaking of pseudoscience, those models of doom predicting 100s of thousands of deaths would certainly fit into that category.

There are 182,004 deaths so far in around 2 months.

And that is reported deaths which requires all Covid death data reported by countries to be reported the same way.

Which it hasn't been. Many countries are fudging numbers and not reporting accurately.

JRant

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

There are 182,004 deaths so far in around 2 months.

And that is reported deaths which requires all Covid death data reported by countries to be reported the same way.

Which it hasn't been. Many countries are fudging numbers and not reporting accurately.

I'm talking about here in Ireland, not globally.
The prediction was over 15,000 cases a day and north of 200,000 deaths.

FintanMcluskey

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Economics is a Pseudoscience.

Just like that spoofer Dr from Trinity predicting a death toll of 120k in Ireland.

Cork Boy 53

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Yes.

I don `t believe you.

Spanish Eyes

Spencer Brown wrote: »

Take cover

Two words, hilarious!

We need a bit of humour now.

FintanMcluskey

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

There are 182,004 deaths so far in around 2 months.

And that is reported deaths which requires all Covid death data reported by countries to be reported the same way.

Which it hasn't been. Many countries are fudging numbers and not reporting accurately.

Its about 0.9% of the total global death toll. Lots of skewed data with Covid being the cause of death in terminally ill patients which isnt the case

timmy_mallet

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

There are 182,004 deaths so far in around 2 months.

And that is reported deaths which requires all Covid death data reported by countries to be reported the same way.

Which it hasn't been. Many countries are fudging numbers and not reporting accurately.

Youre right, Ireland for eg had 10 deaths, at least, attributed to covid19 that later proved incorrect.

timmy_mallet

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

I don `t believe you.

Couldn't care less, horse.

Cork Boy 53

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Just like that spoofer Dr from Trinity predicting a death toll of 120k in Ireland.

What qualifications do you have to start calling a doctor a spoofer? And while you`re answering that what was your previous username here before reregistering?

Balf

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

I don `t believe you.

I don't believe you're from Cork.

Or that you are a boy.

Or that there are 52 just like you.

JRant

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

What qualifications do you have to start calling a doctor a spoofer? And while you`re answering that what was your previous username here before reregistering?

There's wrong and then there's orders of magnitude wrong that the original model can only have been garbage. While the restrictions have played a part in allowing hospitals ramp up capacity by reducing the R0 there was never a chance in hell we would ever get to those numbers. Even Italy which got hammered by this was nowhere near those levels when the original model was run.

marilynrr

fr336 wrote: »

Just curious. If it was affecting working age individuals just as badly as the over 60s, would those wanting to quickly reopen everything be as keen? I mean what would the difference be? In fact if the virus mutates and starts killing working age people in relatively small numbers as it is doing with older people at the moment (like Corona is doing, UK population 65 mil death rate circa 20k), can I come back here and say "Lockdown? I don't want a lockdown. People die. Happens all the time."? And if not, why not?

Some would. Some wouldn't.
There's plenty of over 60s now who want everything to reopen and would rather take their chances even though they know there's a big risk to them!

JRant

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Youre right, Ireland for eg had 10 deaths, at least, attributed to covid19 that later proved incorrect.

Aren't they COVID related deaths and not COVID caused deaths?

Not that it makes a jot to the grieving families.

Strumms

Spencer Brown wrote: »

The lockdown was to flatten the curve...... which it has done. WTF is wrong with you? You seem genuinely unhinged.

It’s not, top medical experts here have denounced this theory. The Taoiseach has backed them...

He said about the lockdown...


“To begin each day knowing that every single imposition, every inconvenience, every irritation will save lives and help our health service cope.”

fr336

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Well its effecting 0.2% of the population over 65.
So, yes Id take my chances with no lockdown.
0.2%. To be honest, I take my chances with a 50% kill rate. If I was that worried about living Id look after myself a lot better, but Ill take enjoyment over extra years in a nursing home

The virus hasn't been here very long. The peak has not been hit. Things would have been far worse without a lockdown. Which of these things can you not get your head around?

And you repeatedly said 0.2%, well I'll say 3 and a half weeks. Very small amount of time isn't it.

fr336

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Its about 0.9% of the total global death toll. Lots of skewed data with Covid being the cause of death in terminally ill patients which isnt the case

Is this evidence from The Fintan newspaper? Because I haven't seen it cited.

FintanMcluskey

fr336 wrote: »

The virus hasn't been here very long. The peak has not been hit. Things would have been far worse without a lockdown. Which of these things can you not get your head around?

And you repeatedly said 0.2%, well I'll say 3 and a half weeks. Very small amount of time isn't it.

Its referring to Italy and a much longer period of time Dr Marcus Brun stats in his report. For ireland the stats are 0.1% of over 65 or 0.01% of overall population. About 165 babies are born every day. We wont die out

FintanMcluskey

fr336 wrote: »

Is this evidence from The Fintan newspaper? Because I haven't seen it cited.

No its called investigation. 17m people have died overall since Jan 1st. Covid accounts for 0.9% of death toll.

JRant

fr336 wrote: »

The virus hasn't been here very long. The peak has not been hit. Things would have been far worse without a lockdown. Which of these things can you not get your head around?

And you repeatedly said 0.2%, well I'll say 3 and a half weeks. Very small amount of time isn't it.

Here's the thing, bad data is worse than having no data at all. Because it lulls decision makers into a false sense of security that what they are doing is the right thing.

Now, I'm not arguing against the initial lockdown. We had little to no data for basing any strategy on and it was the prudent thing to do. However, since then we now have our own and a large numbers of countries around the world to start formulating a strategy that actually benefits all of us here on this island.

Nolan's models and predictions should be binned and absolutely no policy decision should be made based off them. They are so wrong that any decisions made now that reference them are an unconscionable act of negligence.

Honestly, the reasoning behind this current restriction period is based around bank holidays. Let that sink in for a minute. Instead of the rolling 2 week window that appeared to be the strategy, it was added to on the basis that people might do "stuff" over a long weekend.

Nearly 6 weeks after schools and creches closed they still haven't put a childminding plan in place for healthcare workers. I have no confidence they have even the remotest idea what they are going to do in 2 weeks time regarding the easing of restrictions and my concern is that they may push it out by another 2 weeks for no other reason than they don't know what to do. That's a scary thought and should be for all citizens of this island.

drunkmonkey

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWS9UfqTS4U

A Hoax?

JRant

drunkmonkey wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWS9UfqTS4U

A Hoax?

I don't think they meant in the fake sense. Would be interesting to see that Californian study though. 0.1 to 0.3 percent would mean a complete sea change in how we deal with this.

FintanMcluskey

JRant wrote: »

Here's the thing, bad data is worse than having no data at all. Because it lulls decision makers into a false sense of security that what they are doing is the right thing.

Now, I'm not arguing against the initial lockdown. We had little to no data for basing any strategy on and it was the prudent thing to do. However, since then we now have our own and a large numbers of countries around the world to start formulating a strategy that actually benefits all of us here on this island.

Nolan's models and predictions should be binned and absolutely no policy decision should be made based off them. They are so wrong that any decisions made now that reference them are an unconscionable act of negligence.

Honestly, the reasoning behind this current restriction period is based around bank holidays. Let that sink in for a minute. Instead of the rolling 2 week window that appeared to be the strategy, it was added to on the basis that people might do "stuff" over a long weekend.

Nearly 6 weeks after schools and creches closed they still haven't put a childminding plan in place for healthcare workers. I have no confidence they have even the remotest idea what they are going to do in 2 weeks time regarding the easing of restrictions and my concern is that they may push it out by another 2 weeks for no other reason than they don't know what to do. That's a scary thought and should be for all citizens of this island.

Yes. This is true.People are now petrified to think for themselves due to the media and graphs and stats predicting 100k+ dead here and croke park full of people getting tested and the army opening testing stations in Dublin Galway and Cork even though they had no tests. Claire Byrne in a shed. Boris Johnson just made it. People were frozen minded in fear.