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How much is this all going to cost and who will pay for it ?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 124 ✭✭ wyndhurst


    My simple view....

    This episode will cost the state €20bn.
    We will borrow this money (via bonds). This has already commenced last week via NTMA raising €6bn from the sale of a new 7-year benchmark treasury bond at a yield of 0.242% (fantastic deal! & by the way there was an order book of €33bn from 250 potential investors!)

    This means that our national debt will increase from €220bn to €240bn, however, due to falling interest rates and great refinancing deals, the cost of servicing this increased national debt will actually be less that what the state was paying in 2018 - 2019.

    The real challenge to the state is how long it is going to take for the economy to recover and hence what spending plans will be delayed while the income levels recover. I predict a full 2 yrs for this recovery.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,282 ✭✭✭ amacca


    We are about to go on a global money printing exercise, the GFC QE programs won't get a look in for scale. Developing nations will get debt forgiveness. Inflation, inflation, inflation, to lift all boats.

    It'll work for 10 years and end in tears. I think mainly because I don't trust all the central banks to get it calibrated and scaled right.

    Sort of a modern day global version of the roaring 20s followed by a great depression eh....they do say history repeats itself


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,826 Mod ✭✭✭✭ peasant


    this one worries me the most. The amount of people on the 350 a week who will fight tooth and nail for the government not to drop them back to 203 a week will be quite a lot. Its the exact thing the shinners would jump on and try bankrupt us even further.

    Might this be a good time for a universal basic income?
    Threefiddy a week for everybody?

    Before you reach for your heart medicine...bear with me ...

    Other than the few professional scroungers that you get everywhere and all the time no matter what, most people actually would like to work. But what's keeping a lot of them of doing any job at all is that it doesn't pay enough and that they risk their welfare money.

    But in this post-virus economy, I predict that there will be loads and loads of jobs on almost all skill levels that will be part-time, short term, weird hours,etc because the economy has changed, social distancing needs to be done, demand fluctuates, recurring lockdowns...whatever.
    Basically, the classic 9-5, 40h per week job will be pretty much gone and there will be a need for much more flexibility.
    In order for people to be able to offer that flexibility, they will need an assured income so that they can afford to work when they are needed and stay at home when they aren't.

    There will have to be more local start-ups and small, part time businesses to make up for what we're gonna lose in globalised business ...again needing part-time, on-off workers.

    The more i think about it, a basic income sounds like a must have


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,516 ✭✭✭✭ Idbatterim


    There is no scope to increase income tax and USC, given the government promised but failed to this the last 7 years. However, spending has increased hugley the past few years, particularly with respect to welfare and this should be low hanging fruit in the first instance. Other measures such as a more meaningful property tax combined with large scale housebuilding and purchasing assistance will kill two birds with one stone; providing desperately needed housing and revenue for the State.

    absolutely, I say this relentlessly here and for years, they are MORONS! Every budget, instead of being prudent, is mainly, how many hundreds of millions will we throw at welfare. Agreed about LPT, the rate its at is a farce. No point touching water charges again. I would prefer a council tax, every adult pays it, no exemptions... No more free gp visits for those with medical cards. I proposed all of this months ago, there needs to be a several euro swing, from the working an particularly the working broke. from those paying for nothing... guaranteed income paid by you and I every week. No more free transport, this kind of lunacy. As if we were an oil rich gulf state, no we arent that, we are a country where this sheer lunacy is paid for by those earning over the pittance of E35k as if they were the wolf of wall street, when in reality many can barely keep the world from the door. free rooof over the head, free medical card, whatever welfare scams many of them have going on. When I see how stretched and stressed many hard workers here are, my tolerance for the bull**** and excuses here, ended a long time ago!

    the entire lot, go futher, RTE can do one! Licensce fee gone, they will start problem solving, like a private company does, when its that or the shark tank...


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,516 ✭✭✭✭ Idbatterim


    Varadkar has pledged no income tax increases to fund this, which means he's planning to introduce another tax or increase USC.

    How much is this all expected to cost by the end and more importantly who will be hit to pay for it and how ?

    maraget cash and co will pay for it all... sure on her 80k gross, she is far better off, than many still in employment :rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,603 ✭✭✭ PowerToWait


    In theory china should pay for the lot , but we all know that won't happen. I would personally be a fan of cutting government spending. End the quangos, tell the double job civil servants to go home, break the union controls on our civil service and utilise the new working from home systems to cut costs and decentralise some staff.

    I note you were careful to not use 'public' service. But you realise the civil service, alongside public servants, are the ones digging us out of this, bit by bit as best they can.

    I don't hear much about Dennis O'Brien, or Michael O'Leary or any of the other billionaire tycoons who are eulogised by free marketeers who want to dismantle the public and civil service.


  • Registered Users Posts: 26,407 ✭✭✭✭ Eric Cartman


    I note you were careful to not use 'public' service. But you realise the civil service, alongside public servants, are the ones digging us out of this, bit by bit as best they can.

    I don't hear much about Dennis O'Brien, or Michael O'Leary or any of the other billionaire tycoons who are eulogised by free marketeers who want to dismantle the public and civil service.

    Ahh the aul hide middle manager Maura and her union behind the nurses and doctors defence. Nobody is talking about sacking frontline civil servants, but its a top heavy system with too many layers.

    and then we have the Irish boogeyman DOB mentioned too..

    Michael O Leary is taking much more of a hit than most during this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,369 ✭✭✭ Ha Long Bay


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    maraget cash and co will pay for it all... sure on her 80k gross, she is far better off, than many still in employment :rolleyes:


    Good to see she is spending it sensibly and following social distancing guidelines.


    509318.JPG


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,105 ✭✭✭ Kivaro


    If it lasts longer than 3 months .....
    If Trump incentivizes the major US companies based in Ireland back to the States .....
    If we do not reign in the social welfare bill across the board, as that expense is not sustainable even in good times .....
    If we have a global depression versus a global recession .......

    Lots of 'ifs'. We are looking at least €5 billion in the next three months for welfare supports. Bank of Ireland is saying it will cost us €30 billion overall.
    However it could cost us a lot more if any of the 'ifs' above kicks in.
    We need to be cognizant that our children and grandchildren will be picking up the tab for most of this, so we need to be prudent (fiscally responsible) on what we are spending their money on in the coming months/years.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    was I supposed to read that in the jebidiah Springfield museum guys voice, because I did and all I can say is

    1) wheres the fife
    2) gimme the fife

    You don't know Donald Sutherland?


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭ Blueshoe


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    maraget cash and co will pay for it all... sure on her 80k gross, she is far better off, than many still in employment :rolleyes:

    It's 50k when added up actually


  • Registered Users Posts: 44 rajqo


    I recommend to check out this website..

    usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

    Ireland has at the moment 87.23% public debt to gdp ratio

    it's just a matter of time when it will be 100% and more... the only positive that it's affecting basically every single country so we are all in this together and every country's GDP is getting lower and debt getting higher.

    If governments could still print money and people would accept it, then nothing else will happen this time again and we just add a few more numbers to the world debt....


  • Registered Users Posts: 545 ✭✭✭ CageWager


    It’ll be paid for by “the rich”.. i.e some lad on €75k per year bursting his hole to prop up the welfare state so jacinta can maintain her “rights” while he pays through the bollix for the most expensive mortgage in Europe at a time when banks can borrow at zero %. Not to mention he keeps the health/car/home insurance cartel in business because god forbid Aviva shareholders take a down quarter. Im angry.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,564 ✭✭✭✭ listermint


    Libertarians out in force again then.

    Same people who have hacked the NHS to death in the UK and allowed the market to solve the problem in the US.


    Sure it's only good to socialize your investments I suppose. Ye people are a parody .


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,564 ✭✭✭✭ listermint


    rajqo wrote: »
    I recommend to check out this website..

    usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

    Ireland has at the moment 87.23% public debt to gdp ratio

    it's just a matter of time when it will be 100% and more... the only positive that it's affecting basically every single country so we are all in this together and every country's GDP is getting lower and debt getting higher.

    If governments could still print money and people would accept it, then nothing else will happen this time again and we just add a few more numbers to the world debt....

    That's odd because it was 63.4% in 2018.

    Can you explain the massive jump because you know it seems your source might be questionable


  • Registered Users Posts: 41,063 ✭✭✭✭ SEPT 23 1989


    I am no left winger but they better not try and charge us a cent for this

    They pulled the stunt of "you all partied" in 2008 which stunted a whole section to not revolt because we "partied" a little

    Not this time

    No excuses


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭ Mr. teddywinkles


    Well if China benefit from this they can fook right off with extra tax and misery in general.


  • Registered Users Posts: 30,564 ✭✭✭✭ listermint


    CageWager wrote: »
    It’ll be paid for by “the rich”.. i.e some lad on €75k per year bursting his hole to prop up the welfare state so jacinta can maintain her “rights” while he pays through the bollix for the most expensive mortgage in Europe at a time when banks can borrow at zero %. Not to mention he keeps the health/car/home insurance cartel in business because god forbid Aviva shareholders take a down quarter. Im angry.

    That old adage.... Lol.


    Jacinta is actually the people in the middle. The same folks who are being ripped by expensive child care and barely make mortgage payments. Your lad isn't real.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,069 Hoffmans


    Bank bail in is on the cards 😉


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,516 ✭✭✭✭ Idbatterim


    I am no left winger but they better not try and charge us a cent for this

    They pulled the stunt of "you all partied" in 2008 which stunted a whole section to not revolt because we "partied" a little

    Not this time

    No excuses

    They can do one on increased employment taxes!


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    peasant wrote: »
    Other than the few professional scroungers that you get everywhere and all the time no matter what, most people actually would like to work.

    Ireland, even during the absolute height of the tiger never got below 4% unemployment.

    And when I say unemployment, I'm not including people happily claiming disability for exaggerated illnesses and single parents. That's more than a 'few' I am afraid.

    Here's an idea, gradual reduction because universal basic income is just another form of welfare. The tax payer covering the unemployed.

    Before I get attacked, I fully support and agree with welfare for genuine cases. Be it people that lose their jobs, disabled and indeed, the single parent that was abandoned by a dead beat and / or needs help while they try and juggle a child with work / education. That says, let's not pretend that our generous and openly abused system isn't attracting more than the average scrounger


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,336 ✭✭✭ Mr. teddywinkles


    Kivaro wrote: »
    If it lasts longer than 3 months .....
    If Trump incentivizes the major US companies based in Ireland back to the States .....
    If we do not reign in the social welfare bill across the board, as that expense is not sustainable even in good times .....
    If we have a global depression versus a global recession .......

    Lots of 'ifs'. We are looking at least €5 billion in the next three months for welfare supports. Bank of Ireland is saying it will cost us €30 billion overall.
    However it could cost us a lot more if any of the 'ifs' above kicks in.
    We need to be cognizant that our children and grandchildren will be picking up the tab for most of this, so we need to be prudent (fiscally responsible) on what we are spending their money on in the coming months/years.

    Reign in social welfare when people just outa jobs are in need FFS.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Blueshoe wrote: »
    It's 50k when added up actually

    Net.

    How much does a worker bee to earn to make that after tax?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,263 ✭✭✭ ZX7R


    €1.5 trillian is the stimulus package for the European economy.
    Saw it on a Japanese news program earlier today.
    This I believe includes the €500 billion
    Covid-19 package


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ahh the aul hide middle manager Maura and her union behind the nurses and doctors defence. Nobody is talking about sacking frontline civil servants, but its a top heavy system with too many layers.

    and then we have the Irish boogeyman DOB mentioned too..

    Michael O Leary is taking much more of a hit than most during this.

    He's paid a salary. I would bet his salary still gets paid. Shareholders will get burnt but they also read the rewards. Can't have it both ways


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 83 ✭✭✭ Dorakman


    That would make their children even more impoverished and continue the cycle though

    Who are you kidding, the cycle will continue with these compost heaps until kingdom come.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,603 ✭✭✭ PowerToWait


    Ahh the aul hide middle manager Maura and her union behind the nurses and doctors defence. Nobody is talking about sacking frontline civil servants, but its a top heavy system with too many layers.

    and then we have the Irish boogeyman DOB mentioned too..

    Michael O Leary is taking much more of a hit than most during this.

    Nah, you really want all unions gone, just admit it. You can't touch the frontline staff, right now, but you do favour it, just admit it. You love Denis, he does nothing for his country, but that's ok because he's a boogeyman (sic) for the loony left. You love Michael but sure he's broke now so can't help anyone.

    How about looking to any one of Ireland's other billionaires for few quid rather than put the hurt on the usual suspects, because 'the unions'.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,316 ✭✭✭ Pkiernan


    People who work will pay for it of course.

    Layabouts get off scot free as usual.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,718 ✭✭✭ Danno


    ZX7R wrote: »
    €1.5 trillian is the stimulus package for the European economy.
    Saw it on a Japanese news program earlier today.
    This I believe includes the €500 billion
    Covid-19 package

    And where will that €1.5Tn go to?

    I can tell you where it won't go, that is straight into workers pockets.

    The EU will insist that the banks "distribute" it making sure they get 4% to 7% markup on it.

    We all will pay it back via "Carbon Taxes"

    Mark my words.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 545 ✭✭✭ CageWager


    listermint wrote: »
    That old adage.... Lol.


    Jacinta is actually the people in the middle. The same folks who are being ripped by expensive child care and barely make mortgage payments. Your lad isn't real.

    I am that lad. I am real. I pay for everything and get next to nothing in return except grief.

    Also, Jacinta is not the middle. You obviously have no concept of how many people in this country are largely or entirely dependent on the state. Men and women. If people like me who contribute half my 75k while paying for almost all my necessities (health insurance being the perfect example) privately decide to go elsewhere, this country will be on its knees. Sorry if that doesn't jive with your notions of the downtrodden working class. A misnomer if ever there was one by the way.


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