Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

Blut2

TheSheriff wrote: »

On another note, I would have serious concerns about how a permant remote set up from far outside Dublin will impact your job prospects/salary etc long term. I know others don't share this but I've seen it in my own workplace.

We have a number of employees who are WFH full time and they are constantly stepped over for promotions for years for the simple matter that they don't have a presence in the office. They have zero input into decision making processes and put simply, are there to do the grunt work: it wouldn't be for me. This suits some obviously, no denying that and I would imagine these will be the people who would move, if contracts allowed.

Bear in mind this only really applies when WFH is a minority/unusual position within a company - ie, pre corona. If the vast majority of employees are WFH then the promotion competitiveness aspect completely evaporates - theres no longer anyone with an office 'presence'. For example in the large tech MNCs that have announced all staff are WFHing now into 2021 at the least.

In saying that my own anecdotal experience is most people I know (including myself) aren't at all eager to return to the office full time, but also don't want to completely WFH. Everyone is loving the lack of commute and more friend/family/hobby time, but one or two days a week in the office, to attend meetings, to have an office presence, to socialise with co-workers etc, seems to be the optimum compromise position moving forward most people are wishing for.

If you're at one or the odd second day a week in the office it probably precludes moving down to say Kerry and keeping your Dublin job. But it should see a boom in the commuter belt areas with commutes to Dublin of 90min or so. Too long to do 5 days a week, but very doable once a week. And with much more space, cheaper properties etc. And also still with access to Dublin's amenities (shopping, airport etc).

TheSheriff

Blut2 wrote: »

Bear in mind this only really applies when WFH is a minority/unusual position within a company - ie, pre corona. If the vast majority of employees are WFH then the promotion competitiveness aspect completely evaporates - theres no longer anyone with an office 'presence'. For example in the large tech MNCs that have announced all staff are WFHing now into 2021 at the least.

In saying that my own anecdotal experience is most people I know (including myself) aren't at all eager to return to the office full time, but also don't want to completely WFH. Everyone is loving the lack of commute and more friend/family/hobby time, but one or two days a week in the office, to attend meetings, to have an office presence, to socialise with co-workers etc, seems to be the optimum compromise position moving forward most people are wishing for.

If you're at one or the odd second day a week in the office it probably precludes moving down to say Kerry and keeping your Dublin job. But it should see a boom in the commuter belt areas with commutes to Dublin of 90min or so. Too long to do 5 days a week, but very doable once a week. And with much more space, cheaper properties etc. And also still with access to Dublin's amenities (shopping, airport etc).

This would be ideal in my opinion. Few days at home, few days in the office.

I've said from the start this will increase the attractiveness of the burbs!

Blut2

TheSheriff wrote: »

This would be ideal in my opinion. Few days at home, few days in the office.

I've said from the start this will increase the attractiveness of the burbs!

If I was betting on outcomes its what I'd be betting on. I know first hand that even quite conservative firms (Big4 Accounting) are surveying their staff to find out how many days they want to WFH going forward. Note not if they want to WFH - but how many days a week they want to do it. Not to mention all the tech firms really, really pushing it.

It makes a lot of sense for the employers too though - it makes staff happier for all the above reasons I mentioned, it reduces the chance of a corona infection wiping out whole departments for weeks of sick leave at once, and in the medium/long term it reduces the need for hugely expensive office space.

Plus most middle/senior management people, who'll be making the decision on this, that I've talked to are often even more in favour of WFH now than junior workers. The higher ups have usually got both the home space for extremely comfortable WFH set-ups, and kids that they're now enjoying spending a lot more time with than they used to be able to.

the_syco

awec wrote: »

Er, no, that's not what happens. It could be a very serious issue for any employee caught doing this.

Agreed. To the people wondering why, unless it's a work VPN, your data can be viewed by a 3rd party, especially if it's a "free" VPN, who'll sell your usage.

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

I believe this to be common across many industries. This should have a huge knock on impact in rural Ireland as it will stimulate local economies as services will develop to cater for these people with high levels of disposable income to now spend in the provinces.

It'll also force the lack issue of poor rural broadband.

I can see a lot of buildings in Ballycoolin Business Park in Blanchardstown getting reopened. They'll have the space to allow the 2 meter distancing, with carparking space and public transport routes to it.

=-=

Having supported a business in Toronto, some remote staff only came into the office when their machines broke, whilst others just got DHL to send the machine into the office to be fixed. Something similar may be done in Ireland, or IT sections may increase leased vehicles that will be needed to call to peoples houses to fix their issues.

The_Conductor

Blut2 wrote: »

If I was betting on outcomes its what I'd be betting on. I know first hand that even quite conservative firms (Big4 Accounting) are surveying their staff to find out how many days they want to WFH going forward. Note not if they want to WFH - but how many days a week they want to do it. Not to mention all the tech firms really, really pushing it.

It makes a lot of sense for the employers too though - it makes staff happier for all the above reasons I mentioned, it reduces the chance of a corona infection wiping out whole departments for weeks of sick leave at once, and in the medium/long term it reduces the need for hugely expensive office space.

Plus most middle/senior management people, who'll be making the decision on this, that I've talked to are often even more in favour of WFH now than junior workers. The higher ups have usually got both the home space for extremely comfortable WFH set-ups, and kids that they're now enjoying spending a lot more time with than they used to be able to.

The Programme for government has a target to have an average of 20% of public sector days worked remotely going forward. Seems like a rather poor target to me, but whatever.

Blut2

The_Conductor wrote: »

The Programme for government has a target to have an average of 20% of public sector days worked remotely going forward. Seems like a rather poor target to me, but whatever.

Compared to the numbers we'll see in the private sector that is quite low. But the civil service is always very conservative and slow moving, so even 20% is a big step for them. That number will almost certainly go up in time too at least.

I ran into an acquaintance today who works for one of the massive tech companies in Silicone Alley. He was telling me that they have been informed that the company aimed to have 10% back in August and 30% by October.

omicron

Blut2 wrote: »

Compared to the numbers we'll see in the private sector that is quite low. But the civil service is always very conservative and slow moving, so even 20% is a big step for them. That number will almost certainly go up in time too at least.

The public sector consists of much more than the civil service, it would be difficult to have guards, nurses and doctors working from home, hence the lower target.

Graham

20% of public sector days worked remotely is pretty seismic all the same.

If even half that figure is reached across the public/private sector we could see a significant redistribution of the population accompanied by a significant rebalancing of property prices.

polaco

I am getting confused I have been hunting apartment/house for last 6 weeks and I am getting plenty responses like
"Thank you for your email. We have been inundated with enquiry for this property since advertising yesterday.
Unfortunately viewings are booked out for this week." or similar one's
The same time number of places on daft.ie is going up.
If demand is still very strong why number of places going up day by day?

frw5

There is plenty of people living in accommodation that is below any standard, I am guessing they are looking to move now as well.

TheSheriff

Also think people on here sometimes underestimate the level of demand in Dublin. Its massive.

I have gone to viewings where 100+ people turned up and have queued for an hour to walk single file around a tiny apartment.

polaco

TheSheriff wrote: »

Also think people on here sometimes underestimate the level of demand in Dublin. Its massive.

I have gone to viewings where 100+ people turned up and have queued for an hour to walk single file around a tiny apartment.

I had few viewings past 3 weeks apart from one in Rathmines there only few people turned up.
If level of demand is massive why number of places going up

Blut2

omicron wrote: »

The public sector consists of much more than the civil service, it would be difficult to have guards, nurses and doctors working from home, hence the lower target.

I assumed that figure was 20% WFH for office workers (ie predominantly civil service). If its 20% across the entire public sector on average - including all the sectors that almost nobody can WFH in - then thats going to be much, much higher in the civil service. Is that the case?

Doing some quick maths: of the approx 300,000 public sector employees in Ireland there are circa:
15k Gardai,
100k in education,
100k in healthcare
and 10k in the defense forces.

So approx over 2/3rds of whom can't really WFH at all. So that would suggest the office based roles moving to 60%+ WFH, if the 20% is an overall public sector figure?

Ozark707

polaco wrote: »

I had few viewings past 3 weeks apart from one in Rathmines there only few people turned up.
If level of demand is massive why number of places going up

I guess a large amount of people attending viewings could be someone looking for a better deal than they are currently paying? This might not only be the amount but the location (get closer to work/town etc). Decent places priced well are moving. You can see that it is often taking several drops but once it has adjusted to the new reality then there is sufficient demand for them to clear.

You just have to take a look at this link and you will see that

https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops

polaco

polaco wrote: »

I am getting confused I have been hunting apartment/house for last 6 weeks and I am getting plenty responses like
"Thank you for your email. We have been inundated with enquiry for this property since advertising yesterday.
Unfortunately viewings are booked out for this week." or similar one's
The same time number of places on daft.ie is going up.
If demand is still very strong why number of places going up day by day?

Well from my struggles to get rid of our single room in Marino which was a ludicrously cheap Euro 450 a month I am unsure.

Perhaps most of the people who have moved out of the city are single who tend to be in house shares? People in couples who have remained are the ones most likely to rent whole houses/apartments to themselves?

Graham

Ozark707 wrote: »

You can see that it is often taking several drops but once it has adjusted to the new reality then there is sufficient demand for them to clear.

You just have to take a look at this link and you will see that

https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops

Am I reading that site wrong?

6 rentals dropped their prices in the last fortnight, 12 in the last month.

JimmyVik

WasBornToBoogie wrote: »

Well from my struggles to get rid of our single room in Marino which was a ludicrously cheap Euro 450 a month I am unsure.

Perhaps most of the people who have moved out of the city are single who tend to be in house shares? People in couples who have remained are the ones most likely to rent whole houses/apartments to themselves?

I now some people who are in house share now and have decided now is the time to rent an apartment for themselves.


Moving up the renting ladder so to speak.

Ozark707

Graham wrote: »

Am I reading that site wrong?

6 rentals dropped their prices in the last fortnight, 12 in the last month.

As far as I know they are just examples. In some daft filters I have set up I can see many drops (and I just have a couple out of interest).

Graham

Where are you watching?

Based on nothing other than a hunch, I'd almost expect to see the larger drops in areas with a previously large AirBnB presence. Does what you're seeing reflect that?

Ozark707

Graham wrote: »

Where are you watching?

Based on nothing other than a hunch, I'd almost expect to see the larger drops in areas with a previously large AirBnB presence. Does what you're seeing reflect that?

D2/4/6 mainly. As you say there are a number of very pronounced drops in this area.

As an aside I had a 2 bed filter setup for some of D4/6 (Ranelagh, Milltown, Dartry, Donnybrook, Ballsbridge & Sandymount) for less than 1900. I have had this for about 2 years now...for the last year (pre covid) it was not unusual to have at times no availability. Today there is 29. Many of these are pretty run down (so would indicate a student place I guess) but every now and then I am seeing examples which previously would have been in excess of 2300.

global23214124

Ozark707 wrote: »

D2/4/6 mainly. As you say there are a number of very pronounced drops in this area.

As an aside I had a 2 bed filter setup for some of D4/6 (Ranelagh, Milltown, Dartry, Donnybrook, Ballsbridge & Sandymount) for less than 1900. I have had this for about 2 years now...for the last year (pre covid) it was not unusual to have at times no availability. Today there is 29. Many of these are pretty run down (so would indicate a student place I guess) but every now and then I am seeing examples which previously would have been in excess of 2300.

I had a similar filter for D1/D2/D4/D6/D8 and have seen a few dropping as well. The quality of them was from pretty crap to adequate but was interesting to see.

The_Conductor

global23214124 wrote: »

I had a similar filter for D1/D2/D4/D6/D8 and have seen a few dropping as well. The quality of them was from pretty crap to adequate but was interesting to see.

There were a few extremely interesting ones popping up- including a 4 bed mews in Rathmines @ 2,500 a month (down from a previous 5,000 per month).

Ozark707

The_Conductor wrote: »

There were a few extremely interesting ones popping up- including a 4 bed mews in Rathmines @ 2,500 a month (down from a previous 5,000 per month).

I remember that one, I think it was a slumlord type place.

Smouse156

Ozark707 wrote: »

As far as I know they are just examples. In some daft filters I have set up I can see many drops (and I just have a couple out of interest).

Property Pin doesn’t capture many of the daft rental drops, especially the ones Re-listed daily

Claw Hammer

JimmyVik wrote: »

I now some people who are in house share now and have decided now is the time to rent an apartment for themselves.


Moving up the renting ladder so to speak.

There will be a game of musical chairs for a while. Many sharing arrangements are breaking up due to job losses WFO and people in sharing moving to self contained arrangements. It will take some months to work through. Some AIRBnB may stick to log term, others may hold out for tourism to resume. Some long term landlords may take the opportunity to bail out if tenants leave voluntarily.
The first big development will be the CAO offers. Will they trigger a demand for accommodation? Next will be tourism. When will it come back? Will there be an Indian Summer for tourism? After that, how many businesses will not reopen or will reopen at a much reduced level?
It is all yet to happen.

Smouse156

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There will be a game of musical chairs for a while. Many sharing arrangements are breaking up due to job losses WFO and people in sharing moving to self contained arrangements. It will take some months to work through. Some AIRBnB may stick to log term, others may hold out for tourism to resume. Some long term landlords may take the opportunity to bail out if tenants leave voluntarily.
The first big development will be the CAO offers. Will they trigger a demand for accommodation? Next will be tourism. When will it come back? Will there be an Indian Summer for tourism? After that, how many businesses will not reopen or will reopen at a much reduced level?
It is all yet to happen.

Anyone have stories about securing a rent reduction on asking price? Especially from the REITS? Real stories would be great!

global23214124

We got offered a rent reduction yesterday,a while after saying we were giving notice but it was a bit too late as two of the tenants have now left the country.

The_Conductor

global23214124 wrote: »

We got offered a rent reduction yesterday,a while after saying we were giving notice but it was a bit too late as two of the tenants have now left the country.

Is this from a REIT?

justfortherecor

Smouse156 wrote: »

Anyone have stories about securing a rent reduction on asking price? Especially from the REITS? Real stories would be great!

Limited data to date but for some of the listed REITs that disclose information (e.g. IRES, Hibernia, Kennedy Wilson), on-time rent collections for residential assets have been around 97/98% for April and occupancy levels have remained around 99%, so very little impact so far it seems. Will play out over next few months I'd say if anything does start to become evident.