Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

LasersGoPewPew

Blut2 wrote: »

To be fair now:





The figures show supply has most definitely gone through the roof. Thats an unheard of increase in supply in the context of the last decade in Ireland.

Can you link to this website please?

PommieBast

Ozark707 wrote: »

I have noticed a very big increase in places coming on for less than say 1600 (so they were not previously Airbnb as some of them seem pretty run down). That would indicate that demand is slipping lower down the market as well. Now that restrictions around viewings are essentially lifted I would imagine someone who is currently paying a lot (>2400 for example) will possibly start looking around. I can see 2k being the new 2.4k at this rate.

I've seen a few places in my general area listed for €1400 where previously I would expect €1600-1800 but the vast majority of stuff for under €2k is student accommodation.


For contrast six months ago I was paying €1080 so to me all this is hardly a reduction.

Graham

Ozark707 wrote: »

I have noticed a very big increase in places coming on for less than say 1600 (so they were not previously Airbnb as some of them seem pretty run down).

I'd guess (and it would be a complete guess) at least some of the 'less well presented' properties may have been ex-shared/student houses coming to market earlier than usual.

diggerdigger

Blut2 wrote: »

To be fair now:





The figures show supply has most definitely gone through the roof. Thats an unheard of increase in supply in the context of the last decade in Ireland.

Is that not showing that there is a lower take up of property? It's not really a supply story, as the fundamental supply has not changed (maybe shifted from Airbnb). The change has been that the demand has decreased dramatically. How temporary that is, is anyone's guess.

when all this shakes out, if demand is more permanently diminished, then prices will fall, and new builds will slow, being uneconomical, and then will again create further supply shortage.

We need stable, predictable housing market (even if a little high), and that's getting further away than ever I fear.

frw5

Does anyone know what is with the rent freeze for July? I was due an increase in April which got delayed for May and June, but can't believe there is no news on July.

Blut2

diggerdigger wrote: »

Is that not showing that there is a lower take up of property? It's not really a supply story, as the fundamental supply has not changed (maybe shifted from Airbnb). The change has been that the demand has decreased dramatically. How temporary that is, is anyone's guess.

when all this shakes out, if demand is more permanently diminished, then prices will fall, and new builds will slow, being uneconomical, and then will again create further supply shortage.

We need stable, predictable housing market (even if a little high), and that's getting further away than ever I fear.

We don't know at this stage - its most likely both, a lower up take of property and an increased supply. There are a lot of apartment blocks coming on-stream over the next few months that started construction in the 'boom time' of the last year or two.

The thing is though, even if the number of/supply of new apartments coming to market hasn't changed at all (which is unlikely), if demand has dropped by 10 or 20% or higher in the medium term then that creates a new equilibrium - with an excess of supply.

And if those demand drop numbers sound high, have a look at this data that was just released today:

[img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/d9o20Ph.jpg
[img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/hXQU4UE.jpg

27.7% of the jobs in Ireland are in retail or hospitality. There are going to be absolutely massive job losses in both of those industries. And they're the peak rental demographic of young or foreign people in their 20s and 30s. This on top of the airbnbs hitting the market, the increasing likelihood of 3rd level students not coming back in September etc.

LasersGoPewPew https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/?s=volume

Dav010

Appears house prices and rents rose in May.

https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEBuxVKe3I05g7c-0nIXacnoqGAgEKg8IACoHCAow2NLTATCa_DUw5pahAQ?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen

https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiO2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnJ0ZS5pZS9uZXdzLzIwMjAvMDYwOS8xMTQ2MjY0LXJlbnQtcHJpY2VzLWRhZnQv0gEfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cucnRlLmllL2FtcC8xMTQ2MjY0Lw?hl=en-IE&gl=IE&ceid=IE%3Aen

snowgal

frw5 wrote: »

Does anyone know what is with the rent freeze for July? I was due an increase in April which got delayed for May and June, but can't believe there is no news on July.

I was wondering this too and trying find info on it but havent found anything yet.....

The_Conductor

Blut2 wrote: »

To be fair now:





The figures show supply has most definitely gone through the roof. Thats an unheard of increase in supply in the context of the last decade in Ireland.

An increase of 1000 units- of which 950 are apartments and 50 houses.
In the context of the thousands of foreign employees of MNCs who went home in March/April- there are at least 4000-5000 missing units that aren't showing up in any stats.

You can show me a nice graph showing supply has increased from 1,500 units in Feb to 2,500 units in June- but once again- I have to state, this is peanuts when you look at the larger market.

We are not going to see a new 'normal' very possibly until September 2021- I stand over my previous suggestion.

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

An increase of 1000 units- of which 950 are apartments and 50 houses.
In the context of the thousands of foreign employees of MNCs who went home in March/April- there are at least 4000-5000 missing units that aren't showing up in any stats.

You can show me a nice graph showing supply has increased from 1,500 units in Feb to 2,500 units in June- but once again- I have to state, this is peanuts when you look at the larger market.

We are not going to see a new 'normal' very possibly until September 2021- I stand over my previous suggestion.

In a city with the population of Dublin (is it 1.4M ish?) 2.5k available units doesn't sound like anywhere near enough for a functioning market.

polaco

=The_Conductor
In the context of the thousands of foreign employees of MNCs who went home in March/April
.

Could tell me where did you find such information? I am not saying this not true but I am just curious if you have any links.

The_Conductor

polaco wrote: »

Could tell me where did you find such information? I am not saying this not true but I am just curious if you have any links.

RTE interviewed DAA representatives back at the end of April/beginning of May- discussing the volume of passengers travelling through Dublin airport (at that time) and what their destinations were. I'm sure there must be a podcast somewhere, I'll have a little hunt and see if I can find a link..........

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

In a city with the population of Dublin (is it 1.4M ish?) 2.5k available units doesn't sound like anywhere near enough for a functioning market.

Nope- it most certainly doesn't. Just because its an increase from 1000-1500 units- doesn't mean its anything other than a statistical blip. What I'd like to know if what is going to happen as soon as landlords start advertising vacant property again (I am guessing there are a sizable number of vacant units out there that landlords didn't even both trying to let).

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

Nope- it most certainly doesn't. Just because its an increase from 1000-1500 units- doesn't mean its anything other than a statistical blip. What I'd like to know if what is going to happen as soon as landlords start advertising vacant property again (I am guessing there are a sizable number of vacant units out there that landlords didn't even both trying to let).

agreed, as you said there are employees of MNCs who will start to come back over the next couple of months. Added to that INIS had not been processing Visas so immigrants have been unable to relocate (even if they could get flights) plus it looks like there will be some on campus learning next semester.

Also factor in the newly unemployed..

frw5

snowgal wrote: »

frw5 wrote: »

Does anyone know what is with the rent freeze for July? I was due an increase in April which got delayed for May and June, but can't believe there is no news on July.

I was wondering this too and trying find info on it but havent found anything yet.....

It appears to me it comes down to agreement with landlord.
Very irresponsible from the government to come to 10th of June and still not address this.

diceyreilly

Moved out of my place last weekend.

Rent was just increased before Christmas, and they stuck another €150 on the price on daft

Smouse156

diceyreilly wrote: »

Moved out of my place last weekend.

Rent was just increased before Christmas, and they stuck another €150 on the price on daft

Was it underpriced or are they just delusional?

diceyreilly

Smouse156 wrote: »

Was it underpriced or are they just delusional?

Yeah it was to be fair. I was there 7 years.

I thought they weren’t allowed to hike up the price even if there were new tenants.

Ozark707

diceyreilly wrote: »

Yeah it was to be fair. I was there 7 years.

I thought they weren’t allowed to hike up the price even if there were new tenants.

If it is in a RPZ the max would be 4%

PommieBast

diceyreilly wrote: »

Yeah it was to be fair. I was there 7 years.

I thought they weren’t allowed to hike up the price even if there were new tenants.

Was it you or the landlord who gave notice?

Smouse156

Getting back to rents, are any of the REITs giving reductions on the asking prices? Starting a new job and will have to move to Dublin in August/September. Does anyone have any concrete examples of realised reductions from the big private landlords on asking prices for new rentals? They have yet to drop prices it seems

JimmyVik

Smouse156 wrote: »

Getting back to rents, are any of the REITs giving reductions on the asking prices? Starting a new job and will have to move to Dublin in August/September. Does anyone have any concrete examples of realised reductions from the big private landlords on asking prices for new rentals? They have yet to drop prices it seems

See if you can get one of those student accommodation units and wait for a while to see how it pans out.
Or there are lots of short term lets available. Almost all of them that I contacted a couple of months ago were short term but didnt say it in the advert.
If that suited you you could rent one for 3 or 4 months and then see if there were cheaper rents elsewhere by that time.

JimmyVik

Ozark707 wrote: »

If it is in a RPZ the max would be 4%

Depends when the last rent review was.

diceyreilly

JimmyVik wrote: »

Depends when the last rent review was.

Was 8 months ago.

mrslancaster

diceyreilly wrote: »

Yeah it was to be fair. I was there 7 years.

I thought they weren’t allowed to hike up the price even if there were new tenants.

Can anyone explain how does it work in an RPZ when a new tenant moves in and the last increase was say 9 months earlier? Does the previous rent stay the same for 3 months & then the 4% review kicks in?

brisan

Mr.S wrote: »

Short term, yes they’ll probably drop due to the non-existent demand.

Long term, after all this goes back to normal - we’re still going to have a supply issue and rent prices will climb again.

Let’s assume life goes back to normal in September, why would rent prices continue to drop massively? The “bounce back” would presumably be quick and strong.

Not a hope in hell

brisan

Dav010 wrote: »

Written tenancy agreements are not a requirement. So if the agreement is verbal, or only 6 months written tenancy is offered, then it’ll be a take it or leave it situation.

Personally, the reasons for me choosing to leave the rental market as tenants move out hasn’t changed. I have an Airbnb house that I am just going to wait it out with, and put it up on Airbnb again when things open again later in the year. If rents are falling, the benefits of Airbnb will be even more obvious.

not a chance in hell this will happen without a vaccine

brisan

brisan wrote: »

not a chance in hell this will happen without a vaccine

Why not? Airbnb is operating again in many places. I am staying in one in the UK in three weeks at the start of July. I’d rather stay in a private Airbnb house or flat than a multi occupancy hotel.

Hubertj

brisan wrote: »

not a chance in hell this will happen without a vaccine

i disagree, ive booked an air bnb for galway in september.
my friends are coming over from uk next month and have booked an AirBnB up the road.
Why do you think it wont happen?

brisan

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Have you seen some of the tenants going around? why would a landlord have to rent a property for some person to turn it into s**t, the landlord is then left with the cost to get rid of them and also to clean up the mess....

If every tenant was a good tenant then yes you could say it is indefensible, but in reality Ireland has a lot of crappy tenants

And a lot of crappy landlords