I want a shutdown NOW!

SuperRabbit

I, for one, do give a **** about all of you and your loved ones and want them to have ventilators.

jmayo

Lesnar Defender wrote: »

I for one, do not want my civil liberties removed.

Frankly fook YOUR civil liberties.
There is a thing called society and the greater good.

It is high time a lot of people in the western world started copping on that it is not always ME, ME, ME.

mariaalice wrote: »

It is based on evidence of experts not what the public want which is mob rule.

You see everytime I hear about experts, especially those official ones, I think back to all the times that official expert opinion was proven to be a sham.
I can recall how expert opinion, not alone in this country, but right around the world were assuring us all the financial system was impregnable right up to the point that it was falling down around our ears.

Official expert opinion is there to give an OFFICIAL line.
Governments fear mass hysteria and breakdown of law and order.
They will always do their best to prevent that.

If we have around 1329 confirmed cases then you can be damn sure that we have at least 3 or 4 times that amount of infected people.

Herb Powell wrote: »

Between this thread, and a lot of other **** I've seen floating around, I really think some people would benefit greatly from stepping away from the internet for a while.

Not even trying to be funny or smarmy in any way. This is a lot of people losing their minds over the new reality that we are not completely in control. Wash your hands, avoid close contact with others. That's about all we can do.

That is all well and good, but we have to rely on the idiots doping their part.

For instance yesterday in Filling Station, lady in front of me had mask on so I gave her plenty of room.
Guy behind me didn't even come through the door because he would be too close to me.

Lady and daughter at top of queue couldn't fooking read or else chose to totally ignore sign at door and sign at top of queue to not double back down the queue, but go out other way.

Fooking morons.

galaxy12

Sam the Sham wrote: »

Please read this:


https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Great article , thanks for sharing

Pete_Cavan

realdanbreen wrote: »

Obviously not but my line of work brings me to several every week.
You say that you have seen 'good hygiene practice on display on most of what I seen' !
I take it that you are either having a laugh or you got no nearer than the front fence. You may disagree with me and are perfectly entitled to do so but to me it's almost as if the government said 'let's think of the filthiest workplaces where workers are operating up on top of one another and we will keep them open and close other workplaces. If you don't believe me or think I am scaremongering just ask a construction worker.

That is complete nonsense. Health and safety is a huge issue in construction, if only because if you don't take it seriously you will not be working there for long. Hand hygiene is routinely practiced, not doing so has a good chance of getting you very sick or killed, and that's before the virus. It is a heavily regulated industry and wearing PPE is accepted standard practice. Much of the work also takes place outdoors or semi-outdoors. Work places are secure and everyone signs in and out. The risk of virus spread is much less than with a cafe or bar where you have hundreds of untraceable members of the public wandering in every day..

Your shutdown will not eliminate the virus. It has no endgame, it essentially involves telling the entire workforce to sit at home for an undefined period of time and hope for the best. The state can't afford to pay everyone for long, particularly when they are generating no money if there is practically zero economic activity happening. Good luck trying to fight the virus in 6 months time when the country finances hhave been bled dry and we have social and economic ruination.

timmy_mallet

South Korea didn't have anything like the Shutdown you're screaming for, and yet it's under control.

From the article cited numerous time... "This shows how countries who were prepared, with stronger epidemiological authority, education on hygiene and social distancing, and early detection and isolation, didn’t have to pay with heavier measures afterwards."

I would hope we would fall into that bracket.

Let those symptomatic and at risk isolate, the rest get on with it.

timmy_mallet

jmayo wrote: »

But I do give a sh** when it could be my wife having to put herself and our family at risk to give you medical care because of your actions.

Bit that selfish that, no? I mean, that is you thinking of your civil liberties while complaining about someone doing that same.

DeVore

The endgame isnt for everyone to sit at home until we run out of money. Its to stop the indiscriminate death toll surge and then find one of four possible "end games".

1. Seasonality, ie this thing doesnt like heat and buggers off like the flu. Spoilers, it doesnt seem to mind the heat and this looks unlikely as an endgame. Either way it would be back next November.

2. Vaccine. Everyone is working on this as its a veritable instant billionain ticket. Spoilers: even if they found one tomorrow its testing, and production would take 12 months. And thats rushing it. A cocktail of existing drugs is more promising but obviously its a limited set of existing drugs.

3. Herd Immunity. This is when about 65% of the "herd" has immunity. Spoilers: This requires 65% of people to get it. Even if they're young and healthy, thats a LOT of dead people. It also has to be done slowly so as to not overwhelm the hospitals or the mortality rate rockets.
This is actually the only endgame we can rely on. Which isnt great.

4. Friendly mutation. Suppose this thing mutated into a MORE infectious version of itself but LESS lethal. It would get a headstart on its lethal brother and give us all immunity for very few deaths. Spoilers: This is unlikely. Its also just as likely that it turns more lethal and thats not good.


So, for now, lets get it under control. Stay in doors. And work out which of these endgames happens to present itself.

DeVore

South Korea took extraordinary actions, almost immediately and with strict social controls and active decontamination.

We've actually done very very well in copying their approach and its beginning to show.

Neither they NOR we are on lockdown. I went for a walk in the park today for example. Socially distanced myself and so was EVERY other person I saw.

We're doing it right and we're not in lockdown.

awec

DeVore wrote: »

The endgame isnt for everyone to sit at home until we run out of money. Its to stop the indiscriminate death toll surge and then find one of four possible "end games".

1. Seasonality, ie this thing doesnt like heat and buggers off like the flu. Spoilers, it doesnt seem to mind the heat and this looks unlikely as an endgame. Either way it would be back next November.

2. Vaccine. Everyone is working on this as its a veritable instant billionain ticket. Spoilers: even if they found one tomorrow its testing, and production would take 12 months. And thats rushing it. A cocktail of existing drugs is more promising but obviously its a limited set of existing drugs.

3. Herd Immunity. This is when about 65% of the "herd" has immunity. Spoilers: This requires 65% of people to get it. Even if they're young and healthy, thats a LOT of dead people. It also has to be done slowly so as to not overwhelm the hospitals or the mortality rate rockets.
This is actually the only endgame we can rely on. Which isnt great.

4. Friendly mutation. Suppose this thing mutated into a MORE infectious version of itself but LESS lethal. It would get a headstart on its lethal brother and give us all immunity for very few deaths. Spoilers: This is unlikely. Its also just as likely that it turns more lethal and thats not good.


So, for now, lets get it under control. Stay in doors. And work out which of these endgames happens to present itself.

Are you missing an option where we find a treatment for it? If we could find a treatment that had a high success rate this would surely lower the mortality rate and also the strain on hospitals, since people wouldn't be taking up beds for 14+ days?

SuperRabbit

7 deaths in NI compared with 9 in the entire Republic. Boris should be put in prison for murder right now. They should have shut schools and closed pubs and cancelled events weeks and weeks ago.

timmy_mallet

timmy_mallet wrote: »

South Korea didn't have anything like the Shutdown you're screaming for, and yet it's under control.

From the article cited numerous time... "This shows how countries who were prepared, with stronger epidemiological authority, education on hygiene and social distancing, and early detection and isolation, didn’t have to pay with heavier measures afterwards."

I would hope we would fall into that bracket.

There is a major difference in culture and the attitude towards authority though between S.Korea and Ireland. S.Korea has always been capable of turning into emergency mode due to the constant threat of war from N.Korea, and a variety of Asian countries, such as S.Korea, are more inclined to group-think, which would aid the application of distancing.

Ireland doesn't have that kind of respect for the government, the authorities, or even the awareness of danger. So, no.. I wouldn't be placing Ireland up on the same level as S.Korea in dealing with the crisis... not until we see Irish people actually dealing with the virus, and it's effects.

Let those symptomatic and at risk isolate, the rest get on with it.

Agreed. It's the only practical answer, although the government/support services do need some time to prepare the way for that to happen. Hence the distancing, and the hope of decreasing the spread for a while.

ILoveYourVibes

Guys Ireland is ahead of the curve. This is actually the best we can expect in terms of numbers.

Its not going to get better than this.



I don't think we are going to end up like italy. I think we can see that now.

If you want to shut down more industries etc fine.

I have heard construction and factories are still open no?

What we have now IS Shutdown though ...its not going to get more shutdown that this.

YOU REALIZE EVEN IN ITALY THERE IS NO BLANKET RULE SAYING YOU CANT LEAVE YOUR HOUSE.

We ARE in lockdown in Ireland.

beauf

https://www.thejournal.ie/nct-ireland-coronavirus-open-appointment-5057058-Mar2020/

We are still bringing people together for the NCT, often for repeated visits.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

DeVore wrote: »

The endgame isnt for everyone to sit at home until we run out of money. Its to stop the indiscriminate death toll surge and then find one of four possible "end games".

1. Seasonality, ie this thing doesnt like heat and buggers off like the flu. Spoilers, it doesnt seem to mind the heat and this looks unlikely as an endgame. Either way it would be back next November.

2. Vaccine. Everyone is working on this as its a veritable instant billionain ticket. Spoilers: even if they found one tomorrow its testing, and production would take 12 months. And thats rushing it. A cocktail of existing drugs is more promising but obviously its a limited set of existing drugs.

3. Herd Immunity. This is when about 65% of the "herd" has immunity. Spoilers: This requires 65% of people to get it. Even if they're young and healthy, thats a LOT of dead people. It also has to be done slowly so as to not overwhelm the hospitals or the mortality rate rockets.
This is actually the only endgame we can rely on. Which isnt great.

4. Friendly mutation. Suppose this thing mutated into a MORE infectious version of itself but LESS lethal. It would get a headstart on its lethal brother and give us all immunity for very few deaths. Spoilers: This is unlikely. Its also just as likely that it turns more lethal and thats not good.


So, for now, lets get it under control. Stay in doors. And work out which of these endgames happens to present itself.

The end game is effective therapeutic treatments, hopefully followed by a workable vaccine somewhere down the road.

Seasonality, herd immunity, mutations... all pie in the sky type notions at this point.

Even the hope of a vaccine in the near future, might a bit over-optimistic right now (I would love to be proven wrong on this one, obviously)... so that really leaves us with one realistic option for now: treatments - probably with combinations of different drugs that are already in use for other conditions/illnesses.

realdanbreen

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

That is complete nonsense. Health and safety is a huge issue in construction, if only because if you don't take it seriously you will not be working there for long. Hand hygiene is routinely practiced, not doing so has a good chance of getting you very sick or killed, and that's before the virus. It is a heavily regulated industry and wearing PPE is accepted standard practice. Much of the work also takes place outdoors or semi-outdoors. Work places are secure and everyone signs in and out. The risk of virus spread is much less than with a cafe or bar where you have hundreds of untraceable members of the public wandering in every day..

Your shutdown will not eliminate the virus. It has no endgame, it essentially involves telling the entire workforce to sit at home for an undefined period of time and hope for the best. The state can't afford to pay everyone for long, particularly when they are generating no money if there is practically zero economic activity happening. Good luck trying to fight the virus in 6 months time when the country finances hhave been bled dry and we have social and economic ruination.

You might want to steady on with calling anyones post here 'complete nonsense'

That being said your post boils down to you believing construction sites should not be closed because of the economic implications. I OTOH happen to believe that the health and welfare of the workers and their families(and as a consequence public health in general) should take precedence.

realdanbreen

DeVore wrote: »

The endgame isnt for everyone to sit at home until we run out of money. Its to stop the indiscriminate death toll surge and then find one of four possible "end games".

1. Seasonality, ie this thing doesnt like heat and buggers off like the flu. Spoilers, it doesnt seem to mind the heat and this looks unlikely as an endgame. Either way it would be back next November.

2. Vaccine. Everyone is working on this as its a veritable instant billionain ticket. Spoilers: even if they found one tomorrow its testing, and production would take 12 months. And thats rushing it. A cocktail of existing drugs is more promising but obviously its a limited set of existing drugs.

3. Herd Immunity. This is when about 65% of the "herd" has immunity. Spoilers: This requires 65% of people to get it. Even if they're young and healthy, thats a LOT of dead people. It also has to be done slowly so as to not overwhelm the hospitals or the mortality rate rockets.
This is actually the only endgame we can rely on. Which isnt great.

4. Friendly mutation. Suppose this thing mutated into a MORE infectious version of itself but LESS lethal. It would get a headstart on its lethal brother and give us all immunity for very few deaths. Spoilers: This is unlikely. Its also just as likely that it turns more lethal and thats not good.


So, for now, lets get it under control. Stay in doors. And work out which of these endgames happens to present itself.

Excellent post.

Pete_Cavan

realdanbreen wrote: »

You might want to steady on with calling anyones post here 'complete nonsense'

That being said your post boils down to you believing construction sites should not be closed because of the economic implications. I OTOH happen to believe that the health and welfare of the workers and their families(and as a consequence public health in general) should take precedence.

I was referring to your comment about the "filthiest workplaces where workers are operating up on top of one another", which is complete nonsense.

My post boils down to reduced risk of spread on a construction site due to generally being open and ventilated and control of those entering. It is completely different to entirely indoor, mechanically ventilated workplaces or places where the public come and go. It is a completely different risk profile.

And yes economics have an influence. Shutting down construction sites immediately puts another €50m on government costs every week and with no idea when this would end. It's a double whammy financially because not only do you have greater outgoings, you have a big drop off in revenue. Then you have the lost economic productivity, the cost of delayed delivery of all buildings and infrastructure plus no doubt huge contractual disputes and associated costs, companies going out of business and all the associated collateral damage, etc. Then double all that for all the factories which would also have to shut.

And what do we gain in return for all this loses? Nothing really, the virus will still exist and still spread. The rate of spread is at a manageable level, in reality that is the best we can hope for. A slightly lower rate of spread isn't worth total economic destruction and enormous social damage associated with putting almost the entire workforce out of work. The virus will still exist in a few months and we need to be able to afford to fight it then too.

onedmc

thecomedian wrote: »

We probably can’t do it for as long as it takes.
We will have to come out sometime.
There is no cure at the moment and there doesn’t seem to be one soon.
Without it the virus will come back.

So you can rant away but how long do you think it will take?

Yes, since there is no Vaccine we need build some population resistance. That means we need some people to get the virus and recover while all the time making sure we can deal with the demand on the healthcare system.

Shutting down too soon or too much increases the liklyhood of it returning later perhaps even in the Autumn. I'm actually amazed it hasnt come back in China already.

realdanbreen

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

I was referring to your comment about the "filthiest workplaces where workers are operating up on top of one another", which is complete nonsense.

My post boils down to reduced risk of spread on a construction site due to generally being open and ventilated and control of those entering. It is completely different to entirely indoor, mechanically ventilated workplaces or places where the public come and go. It is a completely different risk profile.

And yes economics have an influence. Shutting down construction sites immediately puts another €50m on government costs every week and with no idea when this would end. It's a double whammy financially because not only do you have greater outgoings, you have a big drop off in revenue. Then you have the lost economic productivity, the cost of delayed delivery of all buildings and infrastructure plus no doubt huge contractual disputes and associated costs, companies going out of business and all the associated collateral damage, etc. Then double all that for all the factories which would also have to shut.

And what do we gain in return for all this loses? Nothing really, the virus will still exist and still spread. The rate of spread is at a manageable level, in reality that is the best we can hope for. A slightly lower rate of spread isn't worth total economic destruction and enormous social damage associated with putting almost the entire workforce out of work. The virus will still exist in a few months and we need to be able to afford to fight it then too.

Fair enough but I do know from people I have spoken with that while there is tremendous goodwill towards the government and healthcare workers at present-and rightly so -that could very quickly change if a loved one of theirs does not get the treatment they need because preference is given to a younger patient who contracted the disease working on a site/factory while the rest of us were on lockdown.

Dakota Dan

realdanbreen wrote: »

Fair enough but I do know from people I have spoken with that while there is tremendous goodwill towards the government and healthcare workers at present-and rightly so -that could very quickly change if a loved one of theirs does not get the treatment they need because preference is given to a younger patient who contracted the disease working on a site/factory while the rest of us were on lockdown.

And the blame game begins.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Dakota Dan wrote: »

And the blame game begins.

In many cases it could be justified and completely warranted.

Mistakes have been made by our government in their handling of this. Whether or not those mistakes turn out to be crucial or not is anyone's guess at this point... hopefully they won't be!

Plumbthedepths

Dakota Dan wrote: »

And the blame game begins.

Doctors prioritise patients based on likely outcome. I've gone to an ER several times in my life for myself and my kids. My experience is children always get priority and personally as it should be. It's emotive to say it but the young will always get priority over the elderly. Eventually in the next few weeks government will decide to slowly allow businesses to open. We will loose people but life has to be allowed continue.

ILoveYourVibes

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Guys Ireland is ahead of the curve. This is actually the best we can expect in terms of numbers.

Its not going to get better than this.



I don't think we are going to end up like italy. I think we can see that now.

If you want to shut down more industries etc fine.

I have heard construction and factories are still open no?

What we have now IS Shutdown though ...its not going to get more shutdown that this.

YOU REALIZE EVEN IN ITALY THERE IS NO BLANKET RULE SAYING YOU CANT LEAVE YOUR HOUSE.

We ARE in lockdown in Ireland.

caps lock solving it yet for you?

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

In many cases it could be justified and completely warranted.

Mistakes have been made by our government in their handling of this. Whether or not those mistakes turn out to be crucial or not is anyone's guess at this point... hopefully they won't be!

and people and parties and groups who didnt have to manage it have the luxury of using perfection as a benchmark.

worth keeping in mind.

Pete_Cavan

realdanbreen wrote: »

Fair enough but I do know from people I have spoken with that while there is tremendous goodwill towards the government and healthcare workers at present-and rightly so -that could very quickly change if a loved one of theirs does not get the treatment they need because preference is given to a younger patient who contracted the disease working on a site/factory while the rest of us were on lockdown.

The idea is to avoid a situation where preference has to be given in terms of treatment. The rate of spread is currently at a manageable rate. People can protect themselves by following the guidelines, if someone gets it it will most likely be because of their own actions, not because someone went to work on a construction site.

The general public is not going to know where or under what circumstances individuals who get infected, contracted the virus.

MOH

galaxy12 wrote: »

Great article , thanks for sharing

People keep sharing this guy's articles. His background is in marketing.

El_Duderino 09

Deleted User wrote: »

and people and parties and groups who didnt have to manage it have the luxury of using perfection as a benchmark.

worth keeping in mind.

I work in auditing government spending and how they implement programmes. There will definitely need to be audit of how government performed during this process. It's essential to learn from this event for the future.

Any time you make money available you have a trade off between getting money out quickly and doing more thorough fraud checks. At the moment we're prioritising getting money out to people and organisations who need so mistakes will inevitably be made.

Nobody is interested in pointing the finger at this stage, but it's absolutely necessary to look back at how things were done, what went well and what didn't.

flexcon

Genuine question

I am off work for 5 days starting from tomorrow. For my own sanity I am looking to drive somewhere by the coast and just get some air and maybe a nap in too in this glorious sun

A I being stupid if I drive the kerry mountains and enjoy the nature and just return home without having contact with anyone? Will I be harshly judged?

Serious question now - I want to do my bit here and stay away

flexcon

flexcon wrote: »

Genuine question

I am off work for 5 days starting from tomorrow. For my own sanity I am looking to drive somewhere by the coast and just get some air and maybe a nap in too in this glorious sun

A I being stupid if I drive the kerry mountains and enjoy the nature and just return home without having contact with anyone? Will I be harshly judged?

Serious question now - I want to do my bit here and stay away

I dont think so. No rules about driving. I drove out to Sligo at the weekend.....watched the surfers for a while at Easky and took a stroll down Dunmoran Strand. Didn’t come within 10 metres of another human, let alone 2. And it has made self-isolation back in Dublin much easier to handle this week

Herb Powell

flexcon wrote: »

Genuine question

I am off work for 5 days starting from tomorrow. For my own sanity I am looking to drive somewhere by the coast and just get some air and maybe a nap in too in this glorious sun

A I being stupid if I drive the kerry mountains and enjoy the nature and just return home without having contact with anyone? Will I be harshly judged?

Serious question now - I want to do my bit here and stay away

You might be harshly judged but people are losing the plot over this. What you're describing is lower risk than going to the shop at the moment. Fresh air and nature is of more benefit than being stuck inside letting anxiety grow. Go for it.