COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

hmmm

https://twitter.com/apsmunro/status/1303628745564205056

IHaveTheFlag

IHaveTheFlag wrote: »

So what's the alternative to having chemical companies manufacturing the vaccine? Is there a vaccine cottage industry I've never heard of? Maybe we can brew a vaccine in the bathtub or something?

Thierry only takes craft vaccines brewed by bearded hipsters in a lab in their shed using only vectors harvested from pure organic viruses

Micky 32

FutureTeashock wrote: »

Finally, someone on my side!:o

The wheels are falling off the rushed vaccine in any case.

With the tracker app also in the toilet, the Covid agenda is taking a hammering.

Jolly good.

I wouldn’t get too excited there. I’m quite confident the vaccines will be going ahead. Those shiney upcoming needles are edging closer and closer to pop that little bubble of yours you live in.

FutureTeashock

Micky 32 wrote: »

I wouldn’t get too excited there. I’m quite confident the vaccines will be going ahead. Those shiney upcoming needles are edging closer and closer to pop that little bubble of yours you live in.

I have no doubt some sort of vaccine will be released, but unlike before, where I thought 70% would be conned into taking it, now I would put that figure at 50%.

I've seen a big awakening to the agenda in recent times.

TomSweeney

FutureTeashock wrote: »

I have no doubt some sort of vaccine will be released, but unlike before, where I thought 70% would be conned into taking it, now I would put that figure at 50%.

I've seen a big awakening to the agenda in recent times.

Well 50% would still be an excellent number - some would say almost herd immunity there!

IHaveTheFlag

TomSweeney wrote: »

Well 50% would still be an excellent number - some would say almost herd immunity there!

Don't feed the troll. Just leave him to shout into the void

3xh

FutureTeashock wrote: »

Basically this technocratic hell.

I will fight it with everything I've got!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U88ZKJhztiM&t=2s

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-limit-social-contact-as-much-as-possible-urges-boris-johnson-as-rule-of-six-to-be-in-place-for-block-of-time-12067434

^^^Covid-secure Marshals patrolling towns ensuring distancing, further increased testing using this new 20 min saliva test to allow entry to work and entertainment facilities there and then. I guess if it’s positive it’s back home with you.

What a weird world.

mohawk

con___manx1 wrote: »

I work in pharma. there is no way in hell I will take a rushed vaccine. These pharma companys are just out for money. That's there priority not you or me. They are all racing each other now for the big pay day.

I also work in pharma. Any vaccine that gets to the market is going to be assessed by regulators like HPRA and the FDA. Pharmaceuticals may be profit driven but after numerous cases of drugs doing patients harm the regulations are only getting stricter as time goes on.

Do you have any idea of the amount of drugs that, despite millions having been spent on them, get shelved during clinical trials either because of patient safety risk or not effective.

For an industry that works under some of the tightest regulations it has the worst reputation for being profit driven.

darjeeling

The UK is reportedly be moving towards a rapid, regular mass testing strategy for preventing a second wave according to newly leaked govt documents. The documents outline plans for a 'moon-shot' program for testing millions of people a day (link).

This is something that former Health Sec & current Health Cttee chair Jeremy Hunt has been pushing for for months, and trials of various elements have already been announced (link).

While the technology to underpin this remains to be validated and approved, and I expect there will be lots of complications in administering a national testing programme, I think they're right to try this approach.

Tokyo

Mod: I have been watching the thread for a few days now, and there seems to be an increasing number of anti vaccination posts, theories about different agendas being in play and so on, and the voices are getting shriller.

The purpose of this thread is baked into the title - COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures - it's not a platform to push an anti vaccination agenda. If posters wish to discuss the cons of vaccination, or push various theories regarding 'the agenda' (whatever that is supposed to mean), open a thread elsewhere on it.

Gael23

I misunderstood the update from AZ. It is not this current event that can be attributed to Multiple Sclerosis but the last one.

What is the anticipated timeline of Pfizer?

JDD

Okay, have been following this thread with interest over the past few months. I'm not a scientist so can't really add much to the debate.

However. I have to decide today whether to let one of my kids make their communion in October, with all the restrictions in place. i.e. no grandparents/siblings attending church, no get together afterwards.

Or, I can decide to push it out to next May. That would be better if the restrictions were mainly gone at that stage, but that will only happen if there is a vaccine.

So. Nail your colours to the mast ladies and gentlemen. In your knowledgeable opinions:

- What are the chances we will have a viable vaccine in place by March/April next year; and
- What are the chances distribution will have happened to an extent that restrictions will be lifted by the end of May 2021?

My humblest thanks.

tobefrank321

darjeeling wrote: »

The UK is reportedly be moving towards a rapid, regular mass testing strategy for preventing a second wave according to newly leaked govt documents. The documents outline plans for a 'moon-shot' program for testing millions of people a day (link).

This is something that former Health Sec & current Health Cttee chair Jeremy Hunt has been pushing for for months, and trials of various elements have already been announced (link).

While the technology to underpin this remains to be validated and approved, and I expect there will be lots of complications in administering a national testing programme, I think they're right to try this approach.

It sounds completely daft like much of what the UK has been doing in recent years.

It will create a horrendous mess and backlog which will cause delays and probably mean those most likely to test positive not getting results in time.

It will mean the hypochondriacs overwhelming the system every time they have a sniffle.

tobefrank321

JDD wrote: »

Okay, have been following this thread with interest over the past few months. I'm not a scientist so can't really add much to the debate.

However. I have to decide today whether to let one of my kids make their communion in October, with all the restrictions in place. i.e. no grandparents/siblings attending church, no get together afterwards.

Or, I can decide to push it out to next May. That would be better if the restrictions were mainly gone at that stage, but that will only happen if there is a vaccine.

So. Nail your colours to the mast ladies and gentlemen. In your knowledgeable opinions:

- What are the chances we will have a viable vaccine in place by March/April next year; and
- What are the chances distribution will have happened to an extent that restrictions will be lifted by the end of May 2021?

My humblest thanks.

Very likely to be some sort of vaccine by spring next year. But it may not be a silver bullet and while some may end up protected, others might not be. Truthful answer and I'd say the experts on here would agree, its impossible to know if there will be a 100% effective vaccine available to everyone next May. There's a strong possibility there will be, but a small chance there won't be.

Hmmzis

Some interesting bits of info in this article that I wasn't aware of regarding Ad vectors:

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/astrazeneca-s-covid-19-vaccine-hold-sparks-reassessment-race

“The expert noted that for adenovirus vaccines, there was a substantial and 'enviable' safety dataset amassed from immunizing US troops over the past 60 years. This, of course, does not mean new adverse events could not emerge with a novel vaccine, perhaps as an autoimmune response to the chimpanzee adenovirus vector used”

I was under the impressions Ad vectors were only like 25 year old tech, not 60!

Gael23

Is there any update today on the Oxford trials?

Herb Powell

con___manx1 wrote: »

I work in pharma. there is no way in hell I will take a rushed vaccine. These pharma companys are just out for money. That's there priority not you or me. They are all racing each other now for the big pay day.

I don't work for pharma, but I do know vaccines are not money-spinners.

darjeeling

tobefrank321 wrote: »

It sounds completely daft like much of what the UK has been doing in recent years.

It will create a horrendous mess and backlog which will cause delays and probably mean those most likely to test positive not getting results in time.

It will mean the hypochondriacs overwhelming the system every time they have a sniffle.

None of that relates to what is being proposed.

They're talking about developing tests for serial, rapid point of care testing. That is clearly needed, given that we're watching the current testing systems failing to prevent rising cases across Europe, resulting in re-imposition of restrictions on how people can go about their lives.

tobefrank321

darjeeling wrote: »

None of that relates to what is being proposed.

They're talking about developing tests for serial, rapid point of care testing. That is clearly needed, given that we're watching the current testing systems failing to prevent rising cases across Europe, resulting in re-imposition of restrictions on how people can go about their lives.

Its widespread testing with some point of care testing.

The project would ramp up testing to between 2m and 4m daily tests by December. That would allow mass testing of all homes in areas or whole cities with rising cases of Covid-19, internal documents show. By the end of the year there would also be weekly testing of all teachers and tests for all visitors to hospitals and care homes.

They are already struggling to process 100,000 tests a day currently. Johnson has lost the plot - can't get 100,000 tests a day right but hey, lets aim for 10 million a day.

Its all great in theory, until you get into the implementation.

And spending 100 billion on it? It would make more sense to invest that as a stimulus, particularly as a vaccine may be here early next year.

No other country is talking about a national lockdown, only Johnson.

Martina1991

darjeeling wrote: »

The UK is reportedly be moving towards a rapid, regular mass testing strategy for preventing a second wave according to newly leaked govt documents. The documents outline plans for a 'moon-shot' program for testing millions of people a day (link).

While the technology to underpin this remains to be validated and approved, and I expect there will be lots of complications in administering a national testing programme, I think they're right to try this approach.

From that link:
"Mass Population Testing Plan” could cost £100bn – the equivalent to the UK’s entire education budget.

If delivered, the moonshot programme would be unprecedented in scale and, as reflected by its name, is considered by some officials to be at the outer level of possibility.

Some of the technology it would require does not yet exist.

It all sounds a bit pie in the sky. I'd believe it when I see it.

darjeeling

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Its widespread testing with some point of care testing.



They are already struggling to process 100,000 tests a day currently. Johnson has lost the plot - can't get 100,000 tests a day right but hey, lets aim for 10 million a day.

Its all great in theory, until you get into the implementation.

And spending 100 billion on it? It would make more sense to invest that as a stimulus, particularly as a vaccine may be here early next year.

No other country is talking about a national lockdown, only Johnson.

The purpose of rapid antigenic tests is for point of care/use testing on a frequent basis.
That can be done in selected settings such as hospitals and care homes, or more widely in work places, schools, colleges etc.
Without having the tests there's nothing that can be done.

It's not just the UK that's trialling these tests. In France they are have started using rapid antigenic tests at hospitals in Paris to see how they can best be deployed (link).

As for 'national lockdowns', I think that's a bit of a red herring. Restrictions are being re-imposed or not lifted in the first place. That doesn't have to mean a national lockdown, and is unlikely to do so unless things become dire, but it does mean that people can't meet each other and prevents some businesses from operating. We've seen this to the greatest extent in Spain, and now the UK is acting. France has required mask wearing in all work places but that hasn't stopped cases rising and around a third of départements have crossed the threshold for reimposing movement restrictions if authorities decide to do so.

Martina1991

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They are already struggling to process 100,000 tests a day currently. Johnson has lost the plot - can't get 100,000 tests a day right but hey, lets aim for 10 million a day.

I was talking to a colleague of mine today. His sister works in the UK.

The sisters BF has tested positive. Symptomatic with cough and fever. The GF has not been tested as she is not deemed a close contact unless she develops symptoms. The BFs work colleagues are also not considered close contacts unless they develop symptoms and one of them is a nurse.

They also had to drive 3 hours to Dundee to their nearest test centre, and when they got there, the BF was handed the swab to take it himself.

I wouldnt heed the promises of Johnson when the UK didn't implement their testing correctly in the first place.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Sweet.Science wrote: »

You would think this would be front page news tomorrow but no . More scaremongering i would guess.

Well, looking at that link, it's still just being trialled. No point getting ahead of themselves and getting people's hopes up when it could still fail. It's a vaccine candidate, not a vaccine. Believe me, I hope it works, but it's at the investigatory stage. The media are right to be cautious on how they report on it.

stephenjmcd

Independent in UK reporting Oxford trials to resume within days

Hmmzis

Indian home brew vaccine candidate data from pre-clinic studies:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.09.285445v1.full.pdf+html

It's a 'classic' inactivated prime-boost-boost regimen candidate with the boost happening at 7 day intervals after the prime. They're using a TLR7 adjuvant to get the CD4+ T cells going and to get a Th1 biased immune response.

Very good PRNT90 values (even impressive I'd say) and a comparatively low gap between the binding titers and neutralization titers indicating they have got good antigen presentation, maybe because they're using an isolate with the 614G mutation (it reportedly makes it easier for the immune system to build nABs against).

It's now in Phase II clinical trials in India.

darjeeling

Martina1991 wrote: »

From that link:
"Mass Population Testing Plan” could cost £100bn – the equivalent to the UK’s entire education budget.

If delivered, the moonshot programme would be unprecedented in scale and, as reflected by its name, is considered by some officials to be at the outer level of possibility.

Some of the technology it would require does not yet exist.

It all sounds a bit pie in the sky. I'd believe it when I see it.

What I find encouraging from the emerging news stories is that national governments in several countries (e.g. the UK, France, the USA) are trying to develop the technology and capacity for rapid frequent testing of large numbers of people. This could have been done months ago, but better late than never.

It will require refinement approval of existing technologies rather than invention of anything radical. Lateral flow immunoassays for antigen detection are not revolutionary.

If successful, once we have approved new tests, there will be a debate about how and where it would be best to implement them and on what scale. But without even developing new tests, this debate won't even be possible.

If everyone charged with taking decisions on national testing strategies simply rejected emerging technologies out of hand then that would be a failure of duty on their part.

Gael23

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Independent in UK reporting Oxford trials to resume within days

Is the a reputable source?

JTMan

FT reporting here (paywall) that AstraZeneca ‘still on track’ to submit Covid vaccine data before end of year.

Seems like Pfizer and Moderna might submit to the regulators around 2 months before Oxford/AstraZeneca.

Gael23

JTMan wrote: »

FT reporting here (paywall) that AstraZeneca ‘still on track’ to submit Covid vaccine data before end of year.

Seems like Pfizer and Moderna might submit to the regulators around 2 months before Oxford/AstraZeneca.

To publicly say that must mean they know what’s going on with the ill participant

Martina1991

darjeeling wrote: »

What I find encouraging from the emerging news stories is that national governments in several countries (e.g. the UK, France, the USA) are trying to develop the technology and capacity for rapid frequent testing of large numbers of people. This could have been done months ago, but better late than never.

It will require refinement approval of existing technologies rather than invention of anything radical. Lateral flow immunoassays for antigen detection are not revolutionary.

If successful, once we have approved new tests, there will be a debate about how and where it would be best to implement them and on what scale. But without even developing new tests, this debate won't even be possible.

If everyone charged with taking decisions on national testing strategies simply rejected emerging technologies out of hand then that would be a failure of duty on their part.

There is consistent work being done to assess the validity and performance of various tests. That is going on even in Ireland. If they are reliable enough they will be used.

Whats being proposed in the UK sounds like fantasy at the minute.
Here's what Dr Sarah Pitt, University of Brighton and fellow of the IBMS had to say about the 'Moon shot'. It is not a home test. It still needs qualified staff to perform the test and isn't as reliable as it should be. She also mentions how Covid testing cannot be compared to pregnancy tests.
https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1303982018603159552?s=19


The IBMS president Alan Wilson has said:
"What the PM seems to be describing is a rapid test thats available for mass screening and that gives results in a few minutes. That does not exist at the moment. And no country is using a test like that; its simply not there.
Its difficult to see how its going to fit in at the moment ".

There will continue to be news about new faster, easier, cheaper tests. Academics, politicians and test manufactures will always promote the good. Look for information from people who have knowledge and experience in laboratory medicine to see how good the test actually is and how achievable all these promises are.