COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Santy2015

is_that_so wrote: »

It will go to those who are potentially higher risk first anyway, which would be in healthcare workers and probably care homes. 2021 is more realistic for the rest of the population.

Let’s say we secure 500,000 doses for December. We vaccinate all healthcare workers and all people in residential care. Would that in some way release the shackles on the rest of society.
Going by the 5% antibody report, real possibility that by year end 500,000 would have been exposed to the virus. So 1m people somewhat safe going into January.

is_that_so

Santy2015 wrote: »

Let’s say we secure 500,000 doses for December. We vaccinate all healthcare workers and all people in residential care. Would that in some way release the shackles on the rest of society.
Going by the 5% antibody report, real possibility that by year end 500,000 would have been exposed to the virus. So 1m people somewhat safe going into January.

I don't know about shackles but it could make life a whole lot more tolerable for people. I think you would still see some level of restrictions applied anyway. I reckon the next group after the high priorities should be kids.

irishgeo

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't know about shackles but it could make life a whole lot more tolerable for people. I think you would still see some level of restrictions applied anyway. I reckon the next group after the high priorities should be kids.

What about people who have serious health conditions that covid could be deadly too. They have to be above kids.

tobefrank321

While its positive news so far on the vaccine front, the safety and efficacy of the vaccines have yet to be proved. Trials where volunteers receive the vaccine and are infected with sars cov 2 afterwards will tell us a lot. And long term safety would also be a concern. Most children have little to fear from covid 19 but an unsafe vaccine could cause issues. Children should be the last group to get any new vaccine until it is proven safe. So still a few major hurdles to cross.

Call me Al

irishgeo wrote: »

What about people who have serious health conditions that covid could be deadly too. They have to be above kids.

Those people are the high priorities too I think.

is_that_so

irishgeo wrote: »

What about people who have serious health conditions that covid could be deadly too. They have to be above kids.

Sure but I'd see kids above the general populace as it gives us hope of a functioning education system, while in theory offering teachers protection.

hmmm

Here's the UK priority list:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi/interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination

I expect this will depend on the vaccine also. E.g. the Cansino vaccine which released data yesterday looks reasonably good for under 55s, but not so good for older people (existing immunity to the vector used in the vaccine). Some people who are immuno-compromised and are in at-risk groups may not be able to receive particular vaccines. It's important for the latter group that we all (as a herd) get vaccinated so that they can be protected.

Listening to Sarah NcInerney this morning, the news is very heartening. Already got the Oxford vaccine under mass production, and Phase 3 will uncover the more unusual side effects and help determine who can have it safely. Usually the pessimist, I've a good feeling about this, and I imagine it is possibly going to be ready, to vaccinate the first cohort of Joe Public just in time for Christmas. Would be the best Christmas present ever. Can you just imagine if we can socialise with reasonable safety!

Of course, I imagine that, at best it may be like the Influenza shot, ie that it prevents the full impact of the illness and shortens it to two days of being out of commission. That would be good enough for me. I have seen saved the full blast of influenza on two occasions I came in direct contact with a person with it-got 36 hours of shivering, shaking, fever, and brief cough that all vanished as quick as it came upon me. If it saves our lives and our livelihood, it will be good enough.

dominatinMC

Deleted User wrote: »

Listening to Sarah NcInerney this morning, the news is very heartening. Already got the Oxford vaccine under mass production, and Phase 3 will uncover the more unusual side effects and help determine who can have it safely. Usually the pessimist, I've a good feeling about this, and I imagine it is possibly going to be ready, to vaccinate the first cohort of Joe Public just in time for Christmas. Would be the best Christmas present ever. Can you just imagine if we can socialise with reasonable safety!

Of course, I imagine that, at best it may be like the Influenza shot, ie that it prevents the full impact of the illness and shortens it to two days of being out of commission. That would be good enough for me. I have seen saved the full blast of influenza on two occasions I came in direct contact with a person with it-got 36 hours of shivering, shaking, fever, and brief cough that all vanished as quick as it came upon me. If it saves our lives and our livelihood, it will be good enough.

I was listening to Pat Kenny earlier and he was interviewing Kate Bingham (Chair of the UK's Vaccine Taskforce). When Pat asked her what the likely date would be for the first member of the ordinary public to receive the vaccine (provided it works), she said that the best case scenario would be the end of the year. She qualified this by saying that was the very best case scenario and it was somewhat unlikely. Obviously we all hope the best case scenario plays out, but I think the optimism has to be tempered by reality.

In any case, all this positive news is most welcome, and the progress has shown us light is at the end of the tunnel. Imagining a return to the "old normal" (and never having to listen to that "new normal" term again!) is almost a cause for celebration!

LiquidZeb

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-53488142


Just wondering what the lads here think of this bbc article? The Wellcome Trust are saying a covid vaccine won't be enough as it's now endemic and not going anywhere.

hmmm

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Just wondering what the lads here think of this bbc article? The Wellcome Trust are saying a covid vaccine won't be enough as it's now endemic and not going anywhere.

I don't think they were quite saying it wouldn't be enough, my understanding of their point was that we aren't going to eliminate this like SARS. It's going to be like Flu, Polio, Measles, HIV - it's going to stay around, and there are going to be pockets of it around the world, babies aren't going to be immune, we might need to get regular vaccines to stay protected, some poorer parts of the world are going to find it hard to control etc.

This is like Flu but considerably more dangerous. It might be the case that we all get a vaccine next year, nothing happens for 2 or 3 years, we skip our booster shots because we've all forgotten about it and suddenly we get an outbreak as a consequence which kills loads of elderly people, and we'll all rush back to the pharmacy to get our injections. It'll mean continuous awareness on our part to keep on top of this, and we'll need to invest in public health to keep track of it. This is a wakeup call for the world, and the next pandemic might be the one with the 40% mortality rate - so hopefully we emerge with better public health systems, and an armory of new vaccine technologies.

iguana

hmmm wrote: »

It'll mean continuous awareness on our part to keep on top of this, and we'll need to invest in public health to keep track of it.

Well we've had similar in the last few years with pertussis in the UK in 2012, where, iirc, 11 babies died and all pregnant women were offered the vaccine in the early 3rd trimester as it was theorised that was the best time for the foetus to develop antibodies through the mother. In the last few years we had a few measles outbreaks in Ireland and MMR clinics were opened up to give children early boosters and vaccinate adults over 30 who had the MMR rather than measles. As vaccine immunity to measles is temporary.

What Username Guidelines

iguana wrote: »

Well we've had similar in the last few years with pertussis in the UK in 2012, where, iirc, 11 babies died and all pregnant women were offered the vaccine in the early 3rd trimester as it was theorised that was the best time for the foetus to develop antibodies through the mother. In the last few years we had a few measles outbreaks in Ireland and MMR clinics were opened up to give children early boosters and vaccinate adults over 30 who had the MMR rather than measles. As vaccine immunity to measles is temporary.

My wife had to get titres checked for MMR before working in the HSE, got a booster as her levels had depleted. I didn't realise we could block employment without vaccines here, which is welcome imo

Santy2015

Competition in the vaccine market, looks that way to me anyway.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-potential-covid-19-vaccine-has-above-50-chance-of-success-12033797

Santy2015

Competition in the vaccine market, looks that way to me anyway.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-potential-covid-19-vaccine-has-above-50-chance-of-success-12033797

Supercell

I see today that the HSE chief is saying the following on the Irish Examiner website:

Mr Reid said:

We’re encouraging everyone to come forward and have the flu vaccine.


"It’s more important this year than ever," he said.

Is there any efforts being made to make this available earlier than usual alongside the COVID-19 vaccine, is it even possible? I had a look at the HSE webpage about the flu vaccine and it only mentions that Flu season 2019/2020 is over, nothing about the forthcoming season. Anyone have some insight on this?

Gael23

Supercell wrote: »

I see today that the HSE chief is saying the following on the Irish Examiner website:



Is there any efforts being made to make this available earlier than usual alongside the COVID-19 vaccine, is it even possible? I had a look at the HSE webpage about the flu vaccine and it only mentions that Flu season 2019/2020 is over, nothing about the forthcoming season. Anyone have some insight on this?

It’s a little early for that info. Flu vaccine won’t be out until around September

hmmm

Pfizer has come from behind to be only a week behind Moderna going into Phase 3 trials with what seems a very solid vaccine candidate. If I was a Moderna investor I'd be worried. The US has bought 100 million doses for delivery by year end (for 50 million people).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7z6BAE6MhA

LiquidZeb

hmmm wrote: »

Pfizer has come from behind to be only a week behind Moderna going into Phase 3 trials with what seems a very solid vaccine candidate. If I was a Moderna investor I'd be worried. The US has bought 100 million doses for delivery by year end (for 50 million people).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7z6BAE6MhA

So do you reckon that the multiple vaccines will have different effects? My theory is that the earliest batch will stop the severe symptoms e.g pneumonia from occurring and killing/debilitating people. Then a batch late next year will stop the virus outright from spreading.

Santy2015

hmmm wrote: »

Pfizer has come from behind to be only a week behind Moderna going into Phase 3 trials with what seems a very solid vaccine candidate. If I was a Moderna investor I'd be worried. The US has bought 100 million doses for delivery by year end (for 50 million people).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7z6BAE6MhA

Looking good on all fronts. How do we choose which vaccine when they become available? Just going by what I’ve been reading 90% chance there will be a vaccine by late autumn/early winter

Gael23

Santy2015 wrote: »

Looking good on all fronts. How do we choose which vaccine when they become available? Just going by what I’ve been reading 90% chance there will be a vaccine by late autumn/early winter

Hope your right. Probably in very limited quantities though?

Miike

Supercell wrote: »

I see today that the HSE chief is saying the following on the Irish Examiner website:



Is there any efforts being made to make this available earlier than usual alongside the COVID-19 vaccine, is it even possible? I had a look at the HSE webpage about the flu vaccine and it only mentions that Flu season 2019/2020 is over, nothing about the forthcoming season. Anyone have some insight on this?

Flu vaccine becomes available as stock is delivered from manufacturing. 20/21 campaign will ramp up from September with vaccinations starting late September early October (there or there about).

Hmmzis

hmmm wrote: »

Pfizer has come from behind to be only a week behind Moderna going into Phase 3 trials with what seems a very solid vaccine candidate. If I was a Moderna investor I'd be worried. The US has bought 100 million doses for delivery by year end (for 50 million people).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7z6BAE6MhA

This is excellent news. They have a very good candidate, it's well tolerated and does a good job even at the lower doses. I think they'll go with the 10ug version initially. Though the ideal would be 1ug prime for T cell activation and then a 10ug boost to bring nAB levels up.

Gael23

Is that subject to regulator approval though?

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

It’s a little early for that info. Flu vaccine won’t be out until around September

As the FLU vaccine is such a holy grail, why are health workers not having a bar of it?

HSE National Immunisation Office September 2017
1
Why flu vaccination is important for health care workers (HCWs)
Every year the flu vaccine is offered to health care workers to prevent the spread of flu to vulnerable
patients and to staff. Health care workers should get the flu vaccine to protect themselves, their
families and their patients.
This year the HSE aims to achieve a target of 40% flu vaccine uptake among health care workers.
In 2017/2018
There was an increase in flu vaccine uptake both in hospital staff (31.6% compared to 22.5% in
2015/2016) and in long term care facility (LTCF) staff (-29.8% compared to 26.6% in 2015/2016).
The highest uptake was in medical and dental staff and the lowest uptake in nursing staff.
15 hospitals and 32 LTCFs exceeded the 40% target. (1)
Please read this information which answers some common questions about flu and the
flu vaccine. It provides clinical evidence showing why vaccination of healthcare workers

LiquidZeb

rusty cole wrote: »

As the FLU vaccine is such a holy grail, why are health workers not having a bar of it?

HSE National Immunisation Office September 2017
1
Why flu vaccination is important for health care workers (HCWs)
Every year the flu vaccine is offered to health care workers to prevent the spread of flu to vulnerable
patients and to staff. Health care workers should get the flu vaccine to protect themselves, their
families and their patients.
This year the HSE aims to achieve a target of 40% flu vaccine uptake among health care workers.
In 2017/2018
There was an increase in flu vaccine uptake both in hospital staff (31.6% compared to 22.5% in
2015/2016) and in long term care facility (LTCF) staff (-29.8% compared to 26.6% in 2015/2016).
The highest uptake was in medical and dental staff and the lowest uptake in nursing staff.
15 hospitals and 32 LTCFs exceeded the 40% target. (1)
Please read this information which answers some common questions about flu and the
flu vaccine. It provides clinical evidence showing why vaccination of healthcare workers

As has been said to you before, the most likely reason is that most HSE workers feel they don't need it as they don't feel the flu poses a significant risk to their health. I doubt it's some big conspiracy that they're clued in on. But believe whatever you want.

darjeeling

mandrake04 wrote: »

Having a cheap rapid test that has high rate of failure screening for a new disease like covid is extremely risky, if for instance you miss one infected person then you open a false security that person is fine at the time of testing but maybe not as next day they are infectious this is a major concern....really its unacceptable

Really the alternative is not testing people until outbreaks have already become established, and so the necessity of a good-enough fast, cheap, mass-produced test would be transformative.

The whole idea is that with a rapid test is that you can keep testing people on a regular basis. If you miss them one day you can get them a few days later. That is not possible with centralised PCR testing that can maybe handle tens of thousands of samples a week, but not hundreds of thousands.

The current testing regime can just about keep up with our current level of economic activity and social interaction. If we want to reopen schools and colleges and the hospitality sector and also get large numbers of people back into workplaces, all at the same time as seasonal conditions start to favour increased respiratory virus transmission, then our current testing will not be adequate.

TWiV subsequently interviewed Tony Fauci. He agreed with the suggestion that a cheap rapid antigen test is what is needed to open up schools and workplaces. When asked specifically about whether he would support extensive use of a test that might give a negative result for some people with very low virus titres. He said "Absolutely. That's an example of 'Don't let the prefect be the enemy of the good.'"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_Vy6fgaBPE

11:40 - 13:20

Medcram's video endorsing the idea is here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7Sv_pS8MgQ

bennyineire

hmmm wrote: »

Pfizer has come from behind to be only a week behind Moderna going into Phase 3 trials with what seems a very solid vaccine candidate. If I was a Moderna investor I'd be worried. The US has bought 100 million doses for delivery by year end (for 50 million people).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7z6BAE6MhA

Why ? Surely there will be more that 1 vaccines available to meet the work demand. In this video Pfizer have said 100 million doses by the year end and 1.5 billion by end of 2021. Even at that numbers they will still be way behind demand.

Demand will dictate at vaccines for 4 to 6 Billion people by end of 2021 you would expect (8 - 12 billion doses)

Hmmzis

They are coming fast now:

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30932-6?rss=yes

The difference with the mRNA type is that it's stable at room temperature. This makes logistics much, much easier.

It's from China's Academy of Military Sciences and is in phase I human trials.

Hmmzis

bennyineire wrote: »

Why ? Surely there will be more that 1 vaccines available to meet the work demand. In this video Pfizer have said 100 million doses by the year end and 1.5 billion by end of 2021. Even at that numbers they will still be way behind demand.

Demand will dictate at vaccines for 4 to 6 Billion people by end of 2021 you would expect (8 - 12 billion doses)

Pfizer is not the only provider of vaccines, thankfully.

AstraZeneca is targetting 2bln doses for next year and more than 400mln this year (includes SII numbers).

Moderna is targeting 1bln for next year

and so forth...

I think it would be a good time to do another running total with some updated figures.

Btw. while demand will be unprecedentedly high for these vaccines, the supply side even with all going 110% could still struggle to get all those doses made and delivered.