COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Gael23

I think the first half of 2021 is likely a write off

ACitizenErased

Gael23 wrote: »

I think the first half of 2021 is likely a write off

based on what exactly?

Gael23

ACitizenErased wrote: »

based on what exactly?

The timeline for delivery of vaccines. It will be well i to 2021 before a significant portion of the population are vaccinated

ACitizenErased

Gael23 wrote: »

The timeline for delivery of vaccines. It will be well i to 2021 before a significant portion of the population are vaccinated

It doesnt really matter as long as the vulnerable are vaccinated

Sky King

I think the first half of 2021 is likely a write off

The vaccine introduction won't be like flicking a light switch and everything is OK. it will be a very slow return to normal, as things gradually begin to relax in tandem with gradually more people being immunised.

My guess on summer 2021 is a similar summer to 2020 but at the end of it we'll have more of a return to normality, not the fukking sh!tshow we're experiencing this year.

VG31

Sky King wrote: »

My guess on summer 2021 is a similar summer to 2020 but at the end of it we'll have more of a return to normality, not the fukking sh!tshow we're experiencing this year.

I could live with summer 2021 being similar to summer 2020 as long as the government actually implements a proper EU travel plan.

Sky King

VG31 wrote: »

I could live with summer 2021 being similar to summer 2020 as long as the government actually implements a proper EU travel plan.

That would be great. Jaysis a week in the sun would be just

Hmmzis

This is an interesting little study using a killed bacteria that activates TLR2:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.20.20214965v1.full.pdf+html

The one thing that does pop out there is that the controls had a higher fraction of males in it. Though the differences in the outcomes are still significant (controls had 30 confirmed infections with 4 moderate cases while the treatment group had 1 mild case).

More on what TLR2 does in regards to immune responses:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2012.00079/full

If this isn't a "green jelly bean" effect it might not be the worst idea to give this to nursing home and hospital staff while waiting on vaccines to get through the trials.

sekond

mandrake04 wrote: »

The problem with drive through is there is usually a 15 minute observation period for adverse reaction like anaphylactic shock, driving off into the sunset could be dangerous.

This was trialed with flu vaccine in Australia and required parking observation bays especially if people were alone in the car.

Some of the vaccines that are usually given in schools around this time (i.e. HPV vaccine for 1st years) are being given in the public health centres.

My daughter had hers yesterday. Drove up, made ourselves known to staff waiting outside, waited in car until we were phoned. She went inside for vaccination, while I waited outside. She got the vaccine, waited for 15 minutes inside and then came back out. Fairly efficient, and there seemed to be a relatively steady stream of people in and out.

Not quite as fast as drive through, but seemed pretty well organised and might well be a model that works as a next-best-thing.

Tenzor07

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It doesnt really matter as long as the vulnerable are vaccinated

As you say if you only vaccinate the Vulnerable groups you still have to isolate them and/or keep minimal contacts, they can still catch the virus from those around them who won't get the first round of vaccinations..may not cause them to be at a high risk level of death but some still may require hospitalisation...

Plus you still have the vast majority of the population at risk of contracting the virus, and with a large portion of the over 50's with one or two underlying health conditions the cases and hospitalisations will still stay high for younger people..

Harry Palmr

Guardian article by David Salisbury, former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme. It looks at the actual vaccination rates likely to be achieved and what that means for community immunity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

he UK currently has among the highest national coverage of flu vaccine in the world, vaccinating around 75% of the over-65s against flu every year; most countries either do worse or have no vaccination programmes for older people. It is reasonable to expect that this level of coverage could be achieved for a Covid-19 vaccine in that age group in the UK.

Therefore, if the Covid-19 vaccine is 75% effective – meaning that 75% of those vaccinated become immune – then we would actually only protect 56% of that target population (75% of 75%). This would not be enough to stop the virus circulating. Almost half of our highest risk group would remain susceptible, and we won’t know who they are. Relaxing social distancing rules when facing those risks seems a bit like Russian roulette.

Now let’s look at people younger than 65 in medical risk groups. In a good year, the UK vaccinates 50% of them against flu. That means just over a third of them are going to be protected (50% of 75%). Just to make matters worse, regulators such as the US Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency have said that they would accept a 50% lower level for efficacy for candidate Covid-19 vaccines. If that efficacy level is fulfilled, we have to multiply coverage by 50% efficacy, not 75%, and suddenly it all gets more concerning.

Le Bruise

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Guardian article by David Salisbury, former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme. It looks at the actual vaccination rates likely to be achieved and what that means for community immunity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

The first line of that piece.......'For those holding on to hope of an imminent Covid-19 vaccine, the news this weekend that the first could be rolled out as early as “just after Christmas” will have likely lifted the spirits'........

We can't be having that, so here I am with an opinion piece to crush those spirits!!

charlie14

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Guardian article by David Salisbury, former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme. It looks at the actual vaccination rates likely to be achieved and what that means for community immunity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

So if he is correct on a vaccination that provides immunity then that would mean 56% of the vulnerable population are protected and over 1/3 of the rest of the population.
Sound a lot better than we have right now which is a big fat 0%
From that article it appears he is not highlighting a problem with a vaccine, Rather the numbers who might not avail of it.

VG31

VG31 wrote: »

I could live with summer 2021 being similar to summer 2020 as long as the government actually implements a proper EU travel plan.

I think it would be a fairly strenous test of the public's patience to not have the country more open next summer..

polesheep

Sky King wrote: »

The vaccine introduction won't be like flicking a light switch and everything is OK. it will be a very slow return to normal, as things gradually begin to relax in tandem with gradually more people being immunised.

My guess on summer 2021 is a similar summer to 2020 but at the end of it we'll have more of a return to normality, not the fukking sh!tshow we're experiencing this year.

Once they begin vaccinating people normality will return like a rock going down a hill. There will be no point in trying to tell people that the vaccination of the vulnerable doesn't mean that it's safe for everyone to go back to normal. This may be the reason why the authorities here are reluctant to talk about a vaccine.

Gael23

polesheep wrote: »

Once they begin vaccinating people normality will return like a rock going down a hill. There will be no point in trying to tell people that the vaccination of the vulnerable doesn't mean that it's safe for everyone to go back to normal. This may be the reason why the authorities here are reluctant to talk about a vaccine.

This is a flavour of reality

plodder

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Guardian article by David Salisbury, former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme. It looks at the actual vaccination rates likely to be achieved and what that means for community immunity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

Even if what he is saying is correct that couldn't be used as a justification to maintain strict controls any longer than otherwise necessary. If vulnerable people are offered the vaccine and they choose not to take it then that's their look out.

Sky King

Sky King wrote: »

The vaccine introduction won't be like flicking a light switch and everything is OK. it will be a very slow return to normal, as things gradually begin to relax in tandem with gradually more people being immunised.

My guess on summer 2021 is a similar summer to 2020 but at the end of it we'll have more of a return to normality, not the fukking sh!tshow we're experiencing this year.

I thought picking October 2021 would be a good month to get married in. Surely we would be in Level 1 then we had hoped. Now all that hope has gone out the window. Along with just regular every day hope.

Sconsey

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Guardian article by David Salisbury, former director of immunisation at the Department of Health and associate fellow of Chatham House’s Global Health Programme. It looks at the actual vaccination rates likely to be achieved and what that means for community immunity

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/covid-vaccine-immunisation-protection

It's an interesting read but there is one part I am having trouble going along with

Now let’s look at people younger than 65 in medical risk groups. In a good year, the UK vaccinates 50% of them against flu. That means just over a third of them are going to be protected (50% of 75%).

The flu vaccine is one thing, but a Covid vaccine would surely attract more than 50% of the at risk under 65's? I think this guy is painting a worst case scenario. I think way more than 50% of the at risk people will take up a Covid vaccine.

irishgeo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I thought picking October 2021 would be a good month to get married in. Surely we would be in Level 1 then we had hoped. Now all that hope has gone out the window. Along with just regular every day hope.

The flu doesn't require people to stay in their houses. Life still goes on. I'd say the take up for the covid vaccine might be higher than the flu vaccine in the elderly population of it means the end of isolation.

Le Bruise

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought picking October 2021 would be a good month to get married in. Surely we would be in Level 1 then we had hoped. Now all that hope has gone out the window. Along with just regular every day hope.

I would hope the levels system would have been gone altogether by then. As discussed before, we can say goodbye to the music industry, arts and pro-sports if we're still social distancing throughout summer 2021. Once we have a couple of vaccines, we'll have to start opening up...albeit not overnight.

polesheep

Gael23 wrote: »

This is a flavour of reality

It's my opinion. Lots of people post their opinions here. What do you think will be the response of people when they see the vulnerable being vaccinated? Your opinion counts too.

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

I thought picking October 2021 would be a good month to get married in. Surely we would be in Level 1 then we had hoped. Now all that hope has gone out the window. Along with just regular every day hope.

Don't give up hope. Many incredibly talented people are working to improve things.

polesheep

Sconsey wrote: »

It's an interesting read but there is one part I am having trouble going along with


The flu vaccine is one thing, but a Covid vaccine would surely attract more than 50% of the at risk under 65's? I think this guy is painting a worst case scenario. I think way more than 50% of the at risk people will take up a Covid vaccine.

The flu has never scared people like Covid has. I imagine that there will be a massive uptake among vulnerable people.

Thierry12

polesheep wrote: »

The flu has never scared people like Covid has. I imagine that there will be a massive uptake among vulnerable people.

Very little are scared now, not under 50's anyway

They'll take this vaccine to get on with life, not because they are scared.

Gael23

polesheep wrote: »

Don't give up hope. Many incredibly talented people are working to improve things.

I’m giving up hope on having any sort of normal life at this point

CIARAN_BOYLE

We sent need herd immunity for a vaccine. Life will start to go back to normal when a vaccine that lessens the risk of severe symptoms and death is released.

If you vaccinate everyone with a comorbidities and everyone over 65 and its 50% effective ( and reducing covid below the level needing hospitalisation) you can sustain much more cases a day without needing restrictions.

The first generation of vaccines don't look like providing a functional level of immunity.

Mark1916

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-sets-up-its-biggest-ever-vaccination-distribution-campaign-11603272614

How Pfizer are going to distribute the vaccine, interesting reading

Mark1916

https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-usa-exclu-idUSKBN2752C3

Also Oxford vaccine to resume trials in the US later this week

hmmm

Mark1916 wrote: »

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-sets-up-its-biggest-ever-vaccination-distribution-campaign-11603272614

How Pfizer are going to distribute the vaccine, interesting reading

That's a super article. Should answer a lot of the questions raised by the "it takes years to get a vaccine" brigade.

"Pfizer so far has spent about $2 billion on developing the vaccine and setting up the distribution network."

"To keep the vaccines safe in transit and to move them fast, Pfizer designed a new reusable container that can keep the vaccine at ultracold temperatures for up to 10 days and hold between 1,000 and 5,000 doses. "

"Cargo airlines are scrambling to arrange scores of extra flights to move the vaccines. "