COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

stephenjmcd

Mark1916 wrote: »

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-sets-up-its-biggest-ever-vaccination-distribution-campaign-11603272614

How Pfizer are going to distribute the vaccine, interesting reading

Excellent article.
Goes to show how long they've been planning for. They'll do everything from production to delivery then its up to local authorities. Hopefully the dept of health and HSE are planning here for its arrival into the country

Inquitus

Mark1916 wrote: »

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-sets-up-its-biggest-ever-vaccination-distribution-campaign-11603272614

How Pfizer are going to distribute the vaccine, interesting reading

200m Doses, with an option for 100m more, for the 450m people in the EU. The Vaccine needs two doses as well, so best case by the end of 2021 we can vaccinate 1/3 of the EU population. The Vaccine will be accepted as long as it works around 50% of the time, so in the worst case, and the best case is around 70%, it will only vaccinate 1/6 of the EU population. That's not going to make a material difference to the "New Normal".

Good guardian article on the same

FrogmanBegins

polesheep wrote: »

Once they begin vaccinating people normality will return like a rock going down a hill. There will be no point in trying to tell people that the vaccination of the vulnerable doesn't mean that it's safe for everyone to go back to normal. This may be the reason why the authorities here are reluctant to talk about a vaccine.

I don't know. I would never have thought people would have so readily given up Christmas but look at earlier this week. People have just turned into whipped dogs there's no fight in them anymore. It seems like some people want full lockdown until every man, woman and child who ever lived gets a vaccine.

snotboogie

Inquitus wrote: »

200m Doses, with an option for 100m more, for the 450m people in the EU. The Vaccine needs two doses as well, so best case by the end of 2021 we can vaccinate 1/3 of the EU population. The Vaccine will be accepted as long as it works around 50% of the time, so in the worst case, and the best case is around 70%, it will only vaccinate 1/6 of the EU population. That's not going to make a material difference to the "New Normal".

Good guardian article on the same

Calm down, they have also ordered hundreds of millions from AestraZeneka and J&J.

Gael23

snotboogie wrote: »

Calm down, they have also ordered hundreds of millions from AestraZeneka and J&J.

Yes Astrazeneca don’t look to be far behind. Nd their vaccine is inky one dose per patient I believe.
J&J had a pause recently, is there any update on that?

Inquitus

Gael23 wrote: »

Yes Astrazeneca don’t look to be far behind. Nd their vaccine is inky one dose per patient I believe.
J&J had a pause recently, is there any update on that?

J&J aren't being very transparent about things, it's the second person to become ill, given the trial is paused we should assume that the latest person who got sick wasn't given the placebo as the monitoring board could notify J&J of that very quickly.

irishgeo

irishgeo wrote: »

The flu doesn't require people to stay in their houses. Life still goes on. I'd say the take up for the covid vaccine might be higher than the flu vaccine in the elderly population of it means the end of isolation.

Oh absolutely. It's not Covid that frightens me but our Government.

stephenjmcd

Inquitus wrote: »

200m Doses, with an option for 100m more, for the 450m people in the EU. The Vaccine needs two doses as well, so best case by the end of 2021 we can vaccinate 1/3 of the EU population. The Vaccine will be accepted as long as it works around 50% of the time, so in the worst case, and the best case is around 70%, it will only vaccinate 1/6 of the EU population. That's not going to make a material difference to the "New Normal".

Good guardian article on the same

You'd swear they only had one deal.

Good thing theres more than 1 vaccine purchased by the EU then, orders totalling 1 billion to include EU purchasing on behalf of less well off nations

JacksonHeightsOwn

Inquitus wrote: »

200m Doses, with an option for 100m more, for the 450m people in the EU. The Vaccine needs two doses as well, so best case by the end of 2021 we can vaccinate 1/3 of the EU population. The Vaccine will be accepted as long as it works around 50% of the time, so in the worst case, and the best case is around 70%, it will only vaccinate 1/6 of the EU population. That's not going to make a material difference to the "New Normal".

Good guardian article on the same

remember the EU has agreed to buy doses from Astra Zenica plus johnson & johnson, its not just the pfizer ones.

stephenjmcd

Inquitus wrote: »

J&J aren't being very transparent about things, it's the second person to become ill, given the trial is paused we should assume that the latest person who got sick wasn't given the placebo as the monitoring board could notify J&J of that very quickly.

As far as I'm aware this is the first pause with J&J and trial set to resume in the next week.

Theres usually a number of pauses in trials, you just don't hear about them because the spotlight isn't on them like it is now.

Jim_Hodge

We're not alone

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54631285

4000 positive cases could not be reached for tracing in 14 days in NI.

polesheep

Gael23 wrote: »

I’m giving up hope on having any sort of normal life at this point

There are many talented people in the field of medical/biological research working flat out on this.

Hector Savage

Inquitus wrote: »

200m Doses, with an option for 100m more, for the 450m people in the EU. The Vaccine needs two doses as well, so best case by the end of 2021 we can vaccinate 1/3 of the EU population. The Vaccine will be accepted as long as it works around 50% of the time, so in the worst case, and the best case is around 70%, it will only vaccinate 1/6 of the EU population. That's not going to make a material difference to the "New Normal".

Good guardian article on the same

What a surprise far left doom mongers Guardian are hoping there is no vaccine and this just goes on and on and on and on ....

Inquitus

Hector Savage wrote: »

What a surprise far left doom mongers Guardian are hoping there is no vaccine and this just goes on and on and on and on ....

I think the truth lies somewhere in between, it may well take until the end of 2021 to vaccinate enough people for "Herd Immunity", the next key data point is what the effective percentage is of these Vaccines. A vaccine that only works 50-70% of the time causes its own headaches, a lot of people will be running around thinking they are immune when they are not, also the % of people who won't take a vaccine can further dent any hopes of "Herd Immunity".

So its not all doom and gloom, but this isn't all going to be magically fixed in Q1 2021 either.

Gael23

polesheep wrote: »

There are many talented people in the field of medical/biological research working flat out on this.

How long is it going to take though? The timeline keeps being pushed out

Hector Savage

Inquitus wrote: »

I think the truth lies somewhere in between, it may well take until the end of 2021 to vaccinate enough people for "Herd Immunity", the next key data point is what the effective percentage is of these Vaccines. A vaccine that only works 50-70% of the time causes its own headaches, a lot of people will be running around thinking they are immune when they are not, also the % of people who won't take a vaccine can further dent any hopes of "Herd Immunity".

So its not all doom and gloom, but this isn't all going to be magically fixed in Q1 2021 either.

course not, but it's the beginning of the end.
And if they vaccinate enough vulnerable people - they won't slam hospitals, and lets face it this is what the lockdowns are about - to prevent hospitals getting slammed.

Not everyone needs to be vaccinated to get out of this, no where near, most vulnerable do ...

Get a massive distribution to elderly and compromised ...

snotboogie

Inquitus wrote: »

I think the truth lies somewhere in between, it may well take until the end of 2021 to vaccinate enough people for "Herd Immunity", the next key data point is what the effective percentage is of these Vaccines. A vaccine that only works 50-70% of the time causes its own headaches, a lot of people will be running around thinking they are immune when they are not, also the % of people who won't take a vaccine can further dent any hopes of "Herd Immunity".

So its not all doom and gloom, but this isn't all going to be magically fixed in Q1 2021 either.

I don't think anyone serious is saying that but things will gradually improve as the vaccines, other therapeutics and improved testing are rolled out. Lockdowns like we are currently experiencing should be a thing of the past by the end of Q1. International travel could begin to resume. I'd say we'll still be social distancing into the summer but that will be phased out by the end of the year.

Hector Savage

Gael23 wrote: »

How long is it going to take though? The timeline keeps being pushed out

This is just an opinion so could be worthless, but I think this winter will be the last bumpy period ... things should slowly improve from Spring 21, perhaps there will be still travel restrictions though ...

I hope I can get back to Ireland ...

The biggest red herring is the idea that this needs to be remotely perfect for the country to open up..

Any decent reduction in the spread of the disease or the number of hospitalisations would allow countries to open up significantly more. You don't shut down a country for something less serious than Covid

stephenjmcd

Inquitus wrote: »

I think the truth lies somewhere in between, it may well take until the end of 2021 to vaccinate enough people for "Herd Immunity", the next key data point is what the effective percentage is of these Vaccines. A vaccine that only works 50-70% of the time causes its own headaches, a lot of people will be running around thinking they are immune when they are not, also the % of people who won't take a vaccine can further dent any hopes of "Herd Immunity".

So its not all doom and gloom, but this isn't all going to be magically fixed in Q1 2021 either.

Not sure where your getting the only works 50-70% of the time from. Efficency data hasn't been relased as far as I'm aware so its pure guesswork on your part.

Who says it'll be fixed in Q1, Q1 would be frontline workers and those who are deemed vulnerable, once those populations are sufficiently vaccinated then it does mean restrictions can continue to be eased as hospitals won't be under as much pressure.

Young and healthy wont get a vaccine until Q3/4 2021, they don't need to get it first and you don't need everyone vaccinated to break transmission and prevent serious illness.

Seriously do some research

Gael23

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Not sure where your getting the only works 50-70% of the time from. Efficency data hasn't been relased as far as I'm aware so its pure guesswork on your part.

Who says it'll be fixed in Q1, Q1 would be frontline workers and those who are deemed vulnerable, once those populations are sufficiently vaccinated then it does mean restrictions can continue to be eased as hospitals won't be under as much pressure.

Young and healthy wont get a vaccine until Q3/4 2021, they don't need to get it first and you don't need everyone vaccinated to break transmission and prevent serious illness.

Seriously do some research

Your absolutely right but will NPHET/our overlords see it like that?

FintanMcluskey

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Young and healthy wont get a vaccine until Q3/4 2021, they don't need to get it first and you don't need everyone vaccinated to break transmission and prevent serious illness.

What figure of population vaccinated will it take so Irish hospitals won’t be struggling come Q4 2021?

JDD

We have 720k over 65s in Ireland

I would wager that there will be a large uptake of the vaccine from that age group. However there will be some that won't want to take it straight away, or at all. Therefore I think we will need approx 600k vaccine doses for that age group.

We have about 25,000 health care workers.

I have no idea how many people under 65 have conditions that would lead them to be more likely to be hospitalised, but from a quick google it seems that in the US two in ten adults under 65 would have what may be described as "underlying conditions". I would expect it would be less here, so lets say 15% fall into that category. We have 2.5m adults between 25 and 65. So that's about 375,000 doses needed to cover vulnerable adults that would likely be hospitalised if infected.

If we get a million doses from the EU in the first round of distribution (which we should, as that is only 20% of our population) we can vaccinate a great swathe of the population who would likely be hospitalised.

Now, that doesn't meant that covid won't continue to circulate. And it won't mean that healthy people won't be hospitalised. But our hospitals will not become overwhelmed, even in a Level 1 scenario. I expect that if we get delivery of a vaccine by May, we can have that 1m vaccinated by July. Late summer 2021 will revert to Level 1 and I expect restrictions will be removed completely by September/October of next year.

CIARAN_BOYLE

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

What figure of population vaccinated will it take so Irish hospitals won’t be struggling come Q4 2021?

It depends on the efficacy rate. Does it provide immunity, suppress transmission or merely reduce symptoms. A lot of the leading vaccines seem to mainly reduce symptoms so I would suspect we would need a high amou t of the population vaccine.

I'll make a guess and say 1.2 million to cover those with comorbidities and over 65 as well as front line health care workers if we have no restrictions.

If the vaccine provides a high genuine immunity vaccinating health care workers alone would do a massive amount to break the chain of transmission (reducing the R number by somewhere between 0.2 and 0.4 which is massive).

stockshares

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318962795363373058?s=19

Azatadine

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/brazil-reports-that-volunteer-in-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-trial-died-20201021

Not as clearcut as it appears though. Trial continues so....likely not related?

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318972813554995201?s=09

JacksonHeightsOwn

stockshares wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318962795363373058?s=19

Let's all hope that's bollox

Gael23

Would any of consider booking a holiday for summer 2021 yet?

stephenjmcd

stockshares wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318962795363373058?s=19

If your going to post 1 tweet post both at least.
Would suggest this person may have been in the placebo group as there's no stop.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318972813554995201?s=19

CIARAN_BOYLE

Azatadine wrote: »

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/brazil-reports-that-volunteer-in-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-trial-died-20201021

Not as clearcut as it appears though. Trial continues so....likely not related?

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1318972813554995201?s=09

Might be a bad sign to the efficacy of the vaccine.