Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

Neddyusa

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

But more importantly, how many have ended up in hospital?

Numbers in hospital were said to have declined on a news report this morning.
That was the first headline RE hospital numbers rather than test case numbers I'd heard in the last fortnight.

Somewhere along the way the government policy shifted from preventing hospitals being overwhelmed to one of total focus on "case numbers" - most of whom are in no way sick.

That's where they lost me and I agree with Jay that the current economic restrictions will condemn the health service to a generation of chronic underfunding and many thousands of lives lost as a result.

whelan2

Probably the main reason there's not many in hospital with it now is those testing positive are alot younger than before

yosemitesam1

Water John wrote: »

We can all see it's spreading among younger people ATM. Numbers in hospital are beginning to rise a little. How do propose to separate out the young from the older more vulnerable population?

Under 45s make up over 60% of the population and a much larger percentage of the populations activity (even excluding house parties etc).
If under 45s weren't consistently making up 70-80% of detected cases, it would most likely be a sign that a large number of cases were going under the radar.

The act of living is sacred and must be protected at all costs. If to merely stay alive longer has become the all important goal, without the freedoms, pastimes and socialising people have always enjoyed. What is the point?
Oh it's just for a few weeks, has turned into months and WILL turn into years if this madness is not brought to a head. There is NO way out of it if we keep following the groupthink that has gotten us into this hysteria as vaccines will not be the panacea promised.

Water John

What % of the older pop would, to paraphrase a NI Sec of State said, be 'an acceptable level of death?

BTW I would have more faith in the terapuatics improving than a vaccine.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Long twitter thread, 26 posts, explaining the current situation here and comparing it to Florida in June.
https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1296080742607355904?s=19

Say my name

If for all the grandstanding and outrage and condemnation of people's carry on these past few weeks and we're still not seeing an increase in hospital cases.
What does that tell us?

Does it tell us it's ok to come out from under the duvet yet?

I honestly don't understand the same logic that stops six people from gathering how it's going to translate to 300/400/500 pupil schools opening as ok.

And it's not as if there weren't people mixing over the summer. Local cul camps had 200 children running around together.

Water John

Just read the above post by Buford. Iv'e been following Covid in the US and it's not pretty. More older people will be infected and the number in hospital will rise and the death tally rise will then follow.

Say my name

Water John wrote: »

Just read the above post by Buford. Iv'e been following Covid in the US and it's not pretty. More older people will be infected and the number in hospital will rise and the death tally rise will then follow.

But first contact with Covid will be the worst. Second contact not as bad. Third fourth fifth etc.
You do know it's been made up as we go along. A fluid situation they call it.
We don't get immune well we do for two to six months. And then we catch it again and again.
Hospital numbers have to be the key. I know what they're doing on the testing and presuming it's first contact but if it's not and we keep going on test cases we could be here for a very long time.

Water John

Less than 2% of the pop has had Covid. It will take an awful long time to get, herd immunity.

You're statement that you get 'two months immunity. And then we catch it again and again.'
That statement is simply, untrue.
Let's base any discussion on what we know, accepting their is still a lot we don't know.

Say my name

Water John wrote: »

Less than 2% of the pop has had Covid. It will take an awful long time to get, herd immunity.

We were told this spreads faster and easier than the common cold. Travelled all across the globe in a few months.
We nearly had school closures in February with children off sick. And only 2% of the population has had covid.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Say my name wrote: »

But first contact with Covid will be the worst. Second contact not as bad. Third fourth fifth etc.
You do know it's been made up as we go along. A fluid situation they call it.
We don't get immune well we do for two to six months. And then we catch it again and again.
Hospital numbers have to be the key. I know what they're doing on the testing and presuming it's first contact but if it's not and we keep going on test cases we could be here for a very long time.

I don't think you're right there, Say. The severity of the disease seems to depend on the exposure level to the virus. A long exposure to it bringing more virus load, bigger immune response and higher likelihood of hospitalisation and need for ICU.
The doctor in the tweet above covers it well saying there's no change in the genetics of the virus to indicate a reduced virulence.
We're currently in a slow waltz to a major breakdown again, i think.

Say my name

Water John wrote: »

Less than 2% of the pop has had Covid. It will take an awful long time to get, herd immunity.

You're statement that you get 'two months immunity. And then we catch it again and again.'
That statement is simply, untrue.
Let's base any discussion on what we know, accepting their is still a lot we don't know.

This is how a coronavirus operates.
Yosemitesam had a better and different study link in a previous message here.
I think the subjects were actually given a coronavirus. But it showed immunity decreasing over time open for reinfection.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01317914

Water John

That's a 31 year old experiment!!!
Covid 19 is just over six months old.

We know that 4 common cold types are coronavirus. More relevant would be MEERS and SARS studies.

Say my name

Buford T. Justice XIX wrote: »

I don't think you're right there, Say. The severity of the disease seems to depend on the exposure level to the virus. A long exposure to it bringing more virus load, bigger immune response and higher likelihood of hospitalisation and need for ICU.
The doctor in the tweet above covers it well saying there's no change in the genetics of the virus to indicate a reduced virulence.
We're currently in a slow waltz to a major breakdown again, i think.

Doctors differ and patients die. Isn't that what they say?

Times I feel we are the guinea pigs.

How herd immunity works is every cow is always exposed to a slight virus load the whole time. Immunity is there in the wild beast. Alive and grazing.
Take your cow out of the shed and introduce it to that wild outdoor herd and the common cold will kill it.
Same explanation for the Europeans when they first discovered the Americas. Europeans were fine they had immunity to their own viruses. The native Americans had zero contact before with these viruses that the Europeans carried. It wiped out nearly half maybe more of their population.


The key is information, testing, stats, knowing what's what and where we are in the contact with the virus.

tanko

Water John wrote: »

Less than 2% of the pop has had Covid. It will take an awful long time to get, herd immunity.

You're statement that you get 'two months immunity. And then we catch it again and again.'
That statement is simply, untrue.
Let's base any discussion on what we know, accepting their is still a lot we don't know.

How do you know that less than 2% percent of the population has had Covid??

ruwithme

Jayus ,isn't living through this not enough ,without discussing something most of us know little about. Its not as if anyone on here has the ear of decision makers.

Water John

tanko wrote: »

How do you know that less than 2% percent of the population has had Covid??

Read POST 1437

Neddyusa

Say my name wrote: »

But first contact with Covid will be the worst. Second contact not as bad. Third fourth fifth etc.
You do know it's been made up as we go along. A fluid situation they call it.
We don't get immune well we do for two to six months. And then we catch it again and again.
Hospital numbers have to be the key. I know what they're doing on the testing and presuming it's first contact but if it's not and we keep going on test cases we could be here for a very long time.

That's exactly it - that twitter thread Buford posted was interesting and broad ranging.
However, one factor she didn't consider was that Europe was basically three months ahead of Florida.
As you say the first peak is the worst, followed by progressively declining peaks as herd immunity builds.
So she was comparing the first peak in Florida to the second peak in Europe, basically apple's with oranges.

Neddyusa

Water John wrote: »

Read POST 1437

The problem with testing for antibodies is that they are only detectable for a short period of time after being infected.
They then drop down to a low and undetectable level. This doesn't necessarily mean no immunity, as T-cell response can often be sufficient to fight off re-infection.

But it does mean that if you were infected with an asymptomatic case ofCv19 in say March and tested this week, the antibodies may not be detected.
That's why the 2% represents the numbers of people in that study who were recently exposed to the virus that than all the people who had been exposed to it at any time.

So it's extremely likely that far more than 2% of the population has been exposed at this stage.

paddysdream

Will admit to not really following all this Corona debate over the past couple of months.Been busy and its been gone as a topic of conversation around here till very recently.
Local family got a few confirmed cases recently.Looks very likely that it came from one person attending hospital.None bar that person showed any symptoms and all were actually wondering if the test was even accurate.All would be 50 plus
Bit of a 7 day wonder really.

Thing I have noticed since the latest round of "recommendations" is the amount of people staring to question all these new guidelines.These are ones that up to now were all for protecting the elderly etc etc and went along with everything without question.
Whether its the GAA/sport bits,all the contradictions or the realisation that very very few are dying or even being hospitalised with Covid 19 I dont know.

Feel people are figuring out that the "holiday" mood of the past few months (good weather,working from home,people out walking,corona money,kids off school etc etc) is not gonna last forever and life will actually have to get back to normal at some stage.
Was at a funeral last week and the family done the usual thing of lining up beside the grave.Noticable the amount of people going up to shake hands compared to even a few weeks ago

alps

Mindset is going to take a radical change...

It's amazing what a simple golf outing can do..

**** me pink......I'm disgusted

paddysdream

Did you really expect anything different?

alps

paddysdream wrote: »

Did you really expect anything different?

I did

paddysdream

God you must be awfully young !!!!

alps

paddysdream wrote: »

God you must be awfully young !!!!

Yep

awaywithyou

alps wrote: »

Mindset is going to take a radical change...

It's amazing what a simple golf outing can do..

**** me pink......I'm disgusted

well another minister gone.... our new administration is making the Donald's administration look like a team of All-Stars

Mooooo

Ffs. A basic lack of fcuking cop-on. At that level inexcusable tbh. Where all attendees members of the oireacthas?

alps

Mooooo wrote: »

Ffs. A basic lack of fcuking cop-on. At that level inexcusable tbh. Where all attendees members of the oireacthas?

And associates..

Reggie.

Buford T. Justice XIX

The figures behind the decision to open schools.
https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1296760361228673027?s=19