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Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

  • 08-03-2020 12:10am
    #1
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


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    While there are several threads already running across Boards, this is a thread where we can discuss the disease and it's implications from our perspectives and biased towards how it affects us, the people who live in the country.
    This is to be a fact and information thread with news and science, rather than a chit-chat thread. The intention being to educate and help each other.

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



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Comments

  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    Covid-19 is more infectious than the Flu.

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    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    Mortality rate is less than SARS. However with the rate of spread, I believe the number of deaths has already exceeded that of SARS.


    504977.png

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    The mortality rate is decreasing as treatments are refined and detection methods are improved and detect more infected people with milder versions.

    504978.png

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    The death rate is higher in older people and those with pre-existing serious illnesses.
    Elsewhere I read that even with pre-existing complaints if you are under 60 the chances of survival are 95%.


    504979.png

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    Age is a significant factor in mortality rates.

    504974.jpg

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    The rate of spread is important in limiting its effects. Hence the quarantine and social-distancing approaches.


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    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    Coronavirus: How does COVID-19 attack the human body?
    By Tania Snuggs, news reporter

    Wednesday 4 March 2020 18:06, UK

    The most common signs that you may be infected with coronavirus are breathing problems, and that is because its first port of call is the lungs.

    Just like the flu, coronaviruses are respiratory diseases and can spread when an infected patient coughs or sneezes, spraying small liquid droplets from their nose or mouth, which may contain the virus.

    How coronavirus attacks cells in the lungs

    Although just around two months old, experts are slowly discovering more about COVID-19, which appears to be attacking two specific sets of cells in the lungs, according to Professor Mark Fielder - a medical microbiologist at Kingston University.

    Speaking to Sky News, he explains one is called a goblet cell and the other is called a ciliated cell.

    He said: "A goblet cell produces mucus that makes a wet slimy layer on your respiratory tract, and that's important for helping you keep your lungs moist, which is needed to keep you healthy.


    "The ciliated cells are cells that have little hairs on them that wave in an upward direction, so any nasty material that gets stuck in the mucus, such as bacteria and viruses, or particles of dust, gets swept up towards your throat.

    "When you cough, you cough up mucus and swallow it and you dump that into the acid bath we call a stomach - that's the way things normally work."

    But he says COVID-19 appears to be infecting those particular two sets of cells preferentially - "something that was seen similarly with SARS," he said.

    SARS, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, also originated in China, and killed 774 people following the 2002-2003 outbreak, far less than the almost 3,000 killed by COVID-19.

    Professor Fielder added: "The problem we've got here, is the virus infects these cells and starts to kill them.

    "And as it kills them as part of its replication process, tissue falls into the lungs, and the lungs start to get blockages - and that blockage might mean that the patient develops pneumonia."

    Immune system 'goes haywire' and can damage healthy tissue

    He says there is an added problem in that the immune system tries to react because it recognises the body is under attack.

    "It can actually almost over attack, and become what we call hyperimmune, and set up a large attack which can then start to damage the healthy tissue underneath."

    Prof Fielder also claims the body's efforts to fight the virus can cause inflammation in the lungs, which can make breathing even more difficult.

    It is also suggested that the immune system "goes haywire", causing even more damage to the organ and other parts of the tissue.

    He said: "Once the virus has got into the pneumonic state in the lungs, it can start causing problems in the air sacs in the blood vessels in your lungs - commonly wrapped around the almost broccoli shaped organs in the lungs, called the alveoli.

    "These are really important in normal breathing to help the body exchange carbon dioxide for oxygen under normal breathing, and these are very delicate, and can get damaged and limit your capability of oxygenating blood."

    And he adds that it is not only the lungs that are attacked by the virus.

    Coronavirus also attacks other important organs

    COVID-19 can also target the kidneys - the two bean-shaped organs which filter toxins from our blood.

    He says it they are not functioning properly, it could lead to organ failure and the patient "is going to struggle to hang on to life".

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    ;https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-face-mask-facts-spreading-covid-19



    Can a face mask stop it spreading? Coronavirus facts checked

    The truth about how easy it is to catch Covid-19, who is vulnerable and what you can do to avoid infection.

    Claim: ‘Face masks don’t work’

    Wearing a face mask is certainly not an iron-clad guarantee that you won’t get sick – viruses can also transmit through the eyes and tiny viral particles, known as aerosols, can penetrate masks. However, masks are effective at capturing droplets, which is a main transmission route of coronavirus, and some studies have estimated a roughly fivefold protection versus no barrier alone (although others have found lower levels of effectiveness).

    If you are likely to be in close contact with someone infected, a mask cuts the chance of the disease being passed on. If you’re showing symptoms of coronavirus, or have been diagnosed, wearing a mask can also protect others. So masks are crucial for health and social care workers looking after patients and are also recommended for family members who need to care for someone who is ill – ideally both the patient and carer should have a mask.

    However, masks will probably make little difference if you’re just walking around town or taking a bus so there is no need to bulk-buy a huge supply.

    Claim: it is mutating into a more deadly strain

    All viruses accumulate mutations over time and the virus that causes Covid-19 is no different. How widespread different strains of a virus become depends on natural selection – the versions that can propagate quickest and replicate effectively in the body will be the most “successful”. This doesn’t necessarily mean most dangerous for people though, as viruses that kill people rapidly or make them so sick that they are incapacitated may be less likely to be transmitted.


    Genetic analysis by Chinese scientists of 103 samples of the virus, taken from patients in Wuhan and other cities, suggests that early on two main strains emerged, designated L and S. Although the L strain appeared to be more prevalent than the S strain (about 70% of the samples belonged to the former), the S branch of the virus was found to be the ancestral version.

    The team behind this research suggested that this may indicate the L strain is more “aggressive”, either transmitting more easily or replicating faster inside the body. However, this theory is speculative at this stage – there haven’t yet been direct comparisons to see whether people who catch one version of the virus are more likely to pass it on or suffer more severe symptoms.

    Claim: ‘It is no more dangerous than winter flu’

    Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally.


    Claim: ‘It only kills the elderly, so younger people can relax’

    Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from Covid-19. But the illness still has a higher chance of leading to serious respiratory symptoms than seasonal flu and there are other at-risk groups – health workers, for instance, are more vulnerable because they are likely to have higher exposure to the virus. The actions that young, healthy people take, including reporting symptoms and following quarantine instructions, will have an important role in protecting the most vulnerable in society and in shaping the overall trajectory of the outbreak.

    Claim: ‘You need to be with an infected person for 10 minutes’

    For flu, some hospital guidelines define exposure as being within six feet of an infected person who sneezes or coughs for 10 minutes or longer. However, it is possible to be infected with shorter interactions or even by picking the virus up from contaminated surfaces, although this is thought to be a less common route of transmission.

    Claim: ‘A vaccine could be ready within a few months’

    Scientists were quick out of the gates in beginning development of a vaccine for the new coronavirus, helped by the early release of the genetic sequence by Chinese researchers. The development of a viable vaccine continues apace, with several teams now testing candidates in animal experiments. However, the incremental trials required before a commercial vaccine could be rolled out are still a lengthy undertaking – and an essential one to ensure that even rare side-effects are spotted. A commercially available vaccine within a year would be quick.

    Claim: ‘If a pandemic is declared, there is nothing more we can do to stop the spread’

    A pandemic is defined as worldwide spread of a new disease – but the exact threshold for declaring one is quite vague. In practice, the actions being taken would not change whether or not a pandemic is declared. Containment measures are not simply about eliminating the disease altogether. Delaying the onset of an outbreak or decreasing the peak is crucial in allowing health systems to cope with a sudden influx of patients.

    © 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    Excerpts from:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-08/coronavirus-symptoms-explained-and-when-you-should-see-a-doctor/12024042

    What are the symptoms?
    Most people who are infected by coronavirus feel like they have a common cold.

    The most common symptoms are fever, sore throat, dry cough and fatigue but some also have headaches, nasal congestion or a runny nose.

    Diarrhea and nausea have also been reported but are less common.

    Symptoms will generally appear three to four days after exposure to the virus but can be up to 14 days later.

    In serious cases, the symptoms will be similar to influenza, Dr Rawlinson said.

    "They may see changes on their X-ray, they might get pneumonia," Dr Rawlinson said.

    "Some, at the much more severe end, will need to go to ICU but that is a very small percentage."

    Although it is less likely, some people who contract COVID-19 don't develop any symptoms or feel unwell in any way.

    Those under 18 are less susceptible to the virus, according to the limited clinical reports available.

    Dr Rawlinson says those over 65 are at higher risk of more severe symptoms as are those with pre-existing conditions like heart disease or asthma.

    However, the mortality rate is highest among people over 80.

    As opposed to the influenza outbreak in 2009, pregnant women do not seem to be at greater risk of contracting coronavirus.

    When will I recover?
    About 80 per cent of people recover from the disease without any special treatment.

    "If [you] have COVID-19, don't be overwhelmed by it. By far and away, people are recovering well," Dr Rawlinson said.

    Most people with minor symptoms will be told to quarantine themselves at home, keep up fluids and take paracetamol to control their temperature.

    Australian patients have generally recovered in about four weeks, Dr Rawlinson said.

    The people who suffer more severe symptoms may require hospital admission, where they will be cared for in a negative pressure ward and might be given intravenous fluids or oxygen in more serious cases.

    Some may develop an infection in their lower respiratory tract which could lead to pneumonia.

    These patients would be treated in an intensive care unit where high-flow oxygen may be administered or they may be intubated.

    Severe pneumonia can lead to respiratory failure, which is the leading cause of death from coronavirus.

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    The bit about 60% alcohol in wipes could be important to know.
    Can a coronavirus be prevented or avoided?
    Try to avoid people who are sick or meeting in large groups. Stay home if you are sick.

    Cover your cough with a tissue or cough into your upper sleeve or elbow. Do not cough into your hands.

    Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially after going to the bathroom, before eating, and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing. If soap and water are not readily available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol. Always wash hands with soap and water if hands are visibly dirty. Avoid touching your mouth, nose, or eyes.

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭ Water John


    Thanks Greysides, excellent stuff.
    Really think the country needs to examine lockdown. Foot and Mouth + type approach. This approach esp where there is community spread.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭ Water John




  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    HSE Advice:

    Close contact

    This is only a guide but close contact can mean:

    spending more than 15 minutes face-to-face contact within 2 metres of an infected person
    living in the same house or shared accommodation as an infected person

    Anyone with symptoms of coronavirus who has been in close contact with a confirmed case in the last 14 days should:

    isolate themselves from other people - this means going into a different, well-ventilated room alone, with a phone

    phone their GP, or emergency department

    in a medical emergency (if you have severe symptoms) phone 112 or 999

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,633 ✭✭✭✭ Buford T. Justice XIX




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,159 ✭✭✭ alps


    Thank you grey sides...great information.

    I'm really concerned about our capability to stay working if we get this virus. By the nature of spread of a disease like this, farmers may be left having to complete their own work schedule even while ill.

    As it is a virus that can readily development into pneumonia for the host, it's a part of this illness that does not fit in well with having to continue farm work..

    Have you seen any info greysides on the person's ability to continue working with the illness..hardly of danger to the general public in an on farm only situtation


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,907 ✭✭✭✭ _Brian



    I’ve said before.
    All we need to do is buy some time, try keep the infection rates as low as possible until proper meds are available. Cancelling large meets makes sense, as does people not taking leisure travel as much as other years just to keep a lid on it for the moment.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,034 ✭✭✭ arctictree


    So sick pay will also be given to the self employed. I wonder does this apply to Farmers?!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,633 ✭✭✭✭ Buford T. Justice XIX


    This might be useful in helping decide if you need to get tested. From the WHO.
    us3Ygu4.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 744 ✭✭✭ Kewreeuss


    Ive just seen the headline on the online Indo ‘Up to 85000 Irish people could die from Coronavirus ‘
    How can they print that, how is that responsible reporting?? How can Varadkar even make any comment on that scenario?
    There is as much chance of me winning euromillions as there is of 85000 Irish dying. idiot scaremongering.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,818 ✭✭✭ bogman_bass


    Kewreeuss wrote: »
    Ive just seen the headline on the online Indo ‘Up to 85000 Irish people could die from Coronavirus ‘
    How can they print that, how is that responsible reporting?? How can Varadkar even make any comment on that scenario?
    There is as much chance of me winning euromillions as there is of 85000 Irish dying. idiot scaremongering.

    Remember that the papers job isn’t to keep you informed. Itsvto sell papers


  • Registered Users Posts: 682 ✭✭✭ dohc turbo2


    Kewreeuss wrote: »
    Ive just seen the headline on the online Indo ‘Up to 85000 Irish people could die from Coronavirus ‘
    How can they print that, how is that responsible reporting?? How can Varadkar even make any comment on that scenario?
    There is as much chance of me winning euromillions as there is of 85000 Irish dying. idiot scaremongering.
    It’s going on the death rate of 3-5% with an estimated up to 2 million people infected


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,881 ✭✭✭ Base price


    OH and I were chatting and reckoned that if Covid-19 directly affected Irish livestock at least we could rely on DAFM to implement an efficient containment policy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,907 ✭✭✭✭ _Brian


    Kewreeuss wrote: »
    Ive just seen the headline on the online Indo ‘Up to 85000 Irish people could die from Coronavirus ‘
    How can they print that, how is that responsible reporting?? How can Varadkar even make any comment on that scenario?
    There is as much chance of me winning euromillions as there is of 85000 Irish dying. idiot scaremongering.


    The Irish health authorities said just yesterday that they can’t disagree that 1.9milkion Irish people could be infected. Look at the death rate in Italy, almost 5%.

    5% would kill 95,000
    3% would kill 57,000

    People need to realise that the potential is huge if we don’t get this right.

    I’m not saying that it’s going to kill that many, but if it establishes here with the vigour that it was let grip on Italy we willl have allot of sick people and it may be enough to break our already fragile health system.

    One of my kids who was seven at the time got the swine flu when it was going. It was nasty but thankfully existing antiviral meds treated it and after being in isolation for a week she was feeling better. If the treatment wasn’t available I could easily see how much worse it could have gotten and quickly too, and she was a healthy 7 year old.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,633 ✭✭✭✭ Buford T. Justice XIX


    The average incubation period is 5.1 days, which is similar to SARS. 97.5% will develop symptoms within 11.5 days. 14 day quarantine is reasonable as 1% will develop symptoms after 14 days.

    https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 8,699 Mod ✭✭✭✭ greysides


    alps wrote: »

    Have you seen any info greysides on the person's ability to continue working with the illness..hardly of danger to the general public in an on farm only situtation

    I haven't. I will if I do.

    80% get a mild disease. Recently it has shown an ability to cause relapses. Put this with an ageing farming demographic and I would urge abundant caution. It is more deadly than Flu.

    If it really gets widespread we may face lockdown as Italy does now. This may mean family returning home which would in some cases allow a lightening of the load.

    We know more about epidemiology than the average punter. We should use that now for ourselves.

    Risk analysise your activity.

    Disinfection.

    Isolation.

    Bioexclusion.

    Biocontainment.



    AHI, DAFM and FMD have us better prepared.


    This is going to be long battle, virus seems likely to still be around going into next winter.

    The aim of argument, or of discussion, should not be victory, but progress. Joseph Joubert



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,226 ✭✭✭ Siamsa Sessions


    What's the end game for covid-19? As in, how will it end and we can all go back to normal?

    How did SARS end? Was there a vaccine produced and the movement restrictions were then relaxed and finally removed?


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,015 ✭✭✭✭ Water John


    It's a different battle in different countries, depending on a lot of factors. We really haven't much history of the specific virus to go on, 3 months +.
    IWT at the forefront of experts minds is a worst case scenario, when they would reference the 'Spanish flu' 1918/19.
    The fight is more immediate than the long term view. The aim firstly obviously is to contain it. Trace close connections to all positive patients. That's why the two without obvious sources, community spread, in the South of the country, are worrying.
    The next step is to lower the impact and spread it over a longer period of time so that both primarily the health service and secondly the economy are not overwhelmed.
    The time scale has lots of guessimates, possibly peaking in June/July here and it being with us heading into next winter. Hopefully a vaccine will be coming onstream a some point. Meanwhile antiviral medications will become available. Some hope is being placed on Remdesivir.
    Others here are far more expert than me, and hopefully will correct any error I have made.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,573 ✭✭✭ yosemitesam1


    Water John wrote: »
    It's a different battle in different countries, depending on a lot of factors. We really haven't much history of the specific virus to go on, 3 months +.
    IWT at the forefront of experts minds is a worst case scenario, when they would reference the 'Spanish flu' 1918/19.
    The fight is more immediate than the long term view. The aim firstly obviously is to contain it. Trace close connections to all positive patients. That's why the two without obvious sources, community spread, in the South of the country, are worrying.
    The next step is to lower the impact and spread it over a longer period of time so that both primarily the health service and secondly the economy are not overwhelmed.
    The time scale has lots of guessimates, possibly peaking in June/July here and it being with us heading into next winter. Hopefully a vaccine will be coming onstream a some point. Meanwhile antiviral medications will become available. Some hope is being placed on Remdesivir.
    Others here are far more expert than me, and hopefully will correct any error I have made.

    The more people that get infected, the less likely that a successful vaccine will be able to be produced to wipe out this coronavirus. I think we'll be stuck with it as it will destroy the world's economy to fully contain it , not accounting for third world countries lack of potential control


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,907 ✭✭✭✭ _Brian


    _Brian wrote: »
    The Irish health authorities said just yesterday that they can’t disagree that 1.9milkion Irish people could be infected. Look at the death rate in Italy, almost 5%.

    5% would kill 95,000
    3% would kill 57,000

    People need to realise that the potential is huge if we don’t get this right.

    I’m not saying that it’s going to kill that many, but if it establishes here with the vigour that it was let grip on Italy we willl have allot of sick people and it may be enough to break our already fragile health system.

    One of my kids who was seven at the time got the swine flu when it was going. It was nasty but thankfully existing antiviral meds treated it and after being in isolation for a week she was feeling better. If the treatment wasn’t available I could easily see how much worse it could have gotten and quickly too, and she was a healthy 7 year old.




    I see the death rate in Italy is now 6.2%
    10% of active medical staff are isolated and not working
    They brought forward the graduation of nurses to try shore up numbers. They are trying to get retired staff back to work but I'd say given the death rate among older people that isnt an attractive prospect at all. God help them they are having a horrific time.



    I really hope our professionals are looking at what went wrong in Italy and honestly putting plans in place to head off that sort of disaster.



    Meanwhile at home the HSE has stopped blocking hiring staff, OH's department is 30% down on staff for last 2 years and been battling to get staff.. Got a call today to get in whoever they need for next week.


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