2020 NFL Draft

Foxtrol

GlassOfMarleau wrote: »

Yeah I had heard a little bit about that too but I can't imagine it being enough to have him slide that far down. I could see Lamb sliding in front of him from what I've been reading but I'm almost certain both of them wont last past the 12th pick

The Jeudy stuff is likely teams like the Bronocs and Eagles hoping he falls. It seems a non-issue based on him competing fine for 2 years with it and it not coming out until now.

Jeudy is likely the safest of picks to go on the line you have due to the fact his skill set transfers easiest to the NFL if you want a receiver to take a big workload early. This is especially the case this year with minimal camps.

GlassOfMarleau

Foxtrol wrote: »

The Jeudy stuff is likely teams like the Bronocs and Eagles hoping he falls. It seems a non-issue based on him competing fine for 2 years with it and it not coming out until now.

Jeudy is likely the safest of picks to go on the line you have due to the fact his skill set transfers easiest to the NFL if you want a receiver to take a big workload early. This is especially the case this year with minimal camps.

Yeah between the stuff you said and what I was reading here, I'm ready to bet the under on Jeudy. Let's go!!! Thank you!!

franglan

On Herbert over 5.5 at 4/6 there a few weeks. Like Andrew Thomas 8/15 to be picked in top ten. Also like Jalen Hurts to be drafted in second round at 4/9. No money on last two bets yet.

The_Dave

I wonder will we get any Twitter leaks today

jack presley

The_Dave wrote: »

I wonder will we get any Twitter leaks today

Maybe not leaks but load of speculation and people making wild guesses and predictions. It's already kicking off (Miami trading up to Detroit's spot is one I've read a few times but with no evidence to back it up).

The_Dave

jack presley wrote: »

Maybe not leaks but load of speculation and people making wild guesses and predictions. It's already kicking off (Miami trading up to Detroit's spot is one I've read a few times but with no evidence to back it up).

I mean the Laremy Tunsil type leak:D

jack presley

The_Dave wrote: »

I mean the Laremy Tunsil type leak:D

Oh, sorry.

Yeah, that'd be good. I'm also hoping for a few technical glitches when the thing starts too, just to add a bit of chaos to proceedings.

The_Dave

The Dolphins are rumoured to be looking at rading for an OT, now most have very little between the top 4 OTs, so not sure about that rumour and why it would make sense. Unless Miami have a big difference between their gradings of the OTs

The_Dave

jack presley wrote: »

Oh, sorry.

Yeah, that'd be good. I'm also hoping for a few technical glitches when the thing starts too, just to add a bit of chaos to proceedings.

I was wondering if any GMs rented a house for tonight as their own is a bit of a kip, but given their wages I'd doubt it:D

jack presley

The_Dave wrote: »

The Dolphins are rumoured to be looking at rading for an OT, now most have very little between the top 4 OTs, so not sure about that rumour and why it would make sense. Unless Miami have a big difference between their gradings of the OTs

Most of the rumours we hear running up to draft day make no sense and there's no truth to them but that's what makes the day exciting.

jack presley

The_Dave wrote: »

I was wondering if any GMs rented a house for tonight as their own is a bit of a kip, but given their wages I'd doubt it:D

I presume most will have the bookcase backdrop.

The_Dave

jack presley wrote: »

Most of the rumours we hear running up to draft day make no sense and there's no truth to them but that's what makes the day exciting.

Ya, teams are trying to hide their true intentions in case smeone picks that player up, also the NFL want viewers so apparently tell teams to keep the No. 1 pick under wraps, even though most have been widely known well in advance the last few years. I think if I was the Lions or Giants GM i'd certainly field calls about trading down

The_Honeybadger

I think the Tua story is really intriguing, some saying he will go in the top 5, others think he will slip down the board because of the injury concerns. We’ve no idea where he is going to be picked, the talent is clearly there but he is such a risk with all the injuries he had in college. Dolphins or Chargers are obvious spots but the risk of it blowing up in their faces is massive.

The_Dave

The_Honeybadger wrote: »

I think the Tua story is really intriguing, some saying he will go in the top 5, others think he will slip down the board because of the injury concerns. We’ve no idea where he is going to be picked, the talent is clearly there but he is such a risk with all the injuries he had in college. Dolphins or Chargers are obvious spots but the risk of it blowing up in their faces is massive.

There was another rumour going around about him needing more surgery (not on the hip from what I recall), thought i'd take that with a massive pinch of salt.


Dolphin's haven't been linked wtih him much, so either their propaganda machine is in overdrive or they're not taking him.

Jolly Red Giant

Foxtrol wrote: »

My disagreement was with you initially leading off your reasoning with the regularly heard cliche around this time of the year that 'WRs in R1 are notorious for being busts' and this should play into decisions, which you later expanded to also include QBs and RBs. Picking any of those positions in the 1st is the greatest likelihood that you'll get an elite player, so letting how other teams have failed in drafting come into your evaluation just shows lack of trust scouts and front office. There's a difference in not valuing certain positions and drafting scared, and your original argument was the latter.

R1 WRs are notorious for being busts - as are R1 QBs -

The only guarantee with a QB is if he is pick 1 or pick 2 - on merit - and even then many bust.

These are all the QBs selected in R1 for the past decade - and a handful merit consideration as a starting quality QB, never-mind being elite (and the best of them has already retired).

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2832691-ranking-each-quarterback-selected-in-1st-round-of-nfl-draft-in-the-last-decade

The difference between QB and WR in the draft is that you are forced by circumstances and the nature of the position to take chances with QBs, trading up and giving premium picks. You do not have to do that with WRs - there is a much bigger selection and there is not a lot of difference in the success rate between taking a WR in R1 and in R2.

In contrast CB is the position with the highest success rate drafting in R1 and the lowest possibility of a complete bust. OT also have a good success rate in R1 although, unlike Cb, the OTs tend to be very good or complete busts with little in between.

Jolly Red Giant

Foxtrol wrote: »

Jeudy is likely the safest of picks to go on the line you have due to the fact his skill set transfers easiest to the NFL if you want a receiver to take a big workload early. This is especially the case this year with minimal camps.

I agree - of the WR Jeudy is the safest - Lamb has the biggest upsides.

Foxtrol

Jolly Red Giant wrote: »

R1 WRs are notorious for being busts - as are R1 QBs -

The only guarantee with a QB is if he is pick 1 or pick 2 - on merit - and even then many bust.

These are all the QBs selected in R1 for the past decade - and a handful merit consideration as a starting quality QB, never-mind being elite (and the best of them has already retired).

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2832691-ranking-each-quarterback-selected-in-1st-round-of-nfl-draft-in-the-last-decade

The difference between QB and WR in the draft is that you are forced by circumstances and the nature of the position to take chances with QBs, trading up and giving premium picks. You do not have to do that with WRs - there is a much bigger selection and there is not a lot of difference in the success rate between taking a WR in R1 and in R2.

In contrast CB is the position with the highest success rate drafting in R1 and the lowest possibility of a complete bust. OT also have a good success rate in R1 although, unlike Cb, the OTs tend to be very good or complete busts with little in between.

All the above is just excusing drafting scared mindset - because others have failed I don't trust my team to be able to do it correctly.

Look at the last 'historic' deep class for WRs in 2014:

Round 1: Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin
vs
Round 2: Marqise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Paul Richardson, Davante Adams, Cody Latimer, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry

Yes, there is a bust in round 1 and good players in round 2, but there is a clear difference in quality between both groups.

Trust your front office to pick the right guy or else they shouldn't be there.

BrentMused

If I were a GM I think I'd be very tempted to take a gamble on the 2020 season not going ahead and trade as many picks as is realistically possible this year with the aim of accumulating a haul for 2021.

Although that does bring it's own challenges and risks. For example, how much college football will be played this year. And then if 2020 does go ahead you've essentially wasted a year in terms of drafting.

Maybe not a bad gamble for a team in rebuild mode but not one for a franchise in win-now mode.

The_Dave

The_Dave wrote: »

Ya, teams are trying to hide their true intentions in case smeone picks that player up, also the NFL want viewers so apparently tell teams to keep the No. 1 pick under wraps, even though most have been widely known well in advance the last few years.

Oops, just remember Baker to the Browns was quite a shock:eek:

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

BrentMused wrote: »

If I were a GM I think I'd be very tempted to take a gamble on the 2020 season not going ahead and trade as many picks as is realistically possible this year with the aim of accumulating a haul for 2021.

Although that does bring it's own challenges and risks. For example, how much college football will be played this year. And then if 2020 does go ahead you've essentially wasted a year in terms of drafting.

Maybe not a bad gamble for a team in rebuild mode but not one for a franchise in win-now mode.

If it was in any other 1st world country I'd agree with you, but, we're talking about football and this current administration. Also factor in that the type of morons that are part of the 'Liberate' "movement" are also the type of morons that would be found in a packed stadium in the midst of a pandemic.
Should the season go ahead - almost certainly not.
Will it go ahead - almost certainly.

Foxtrol

BrentMused wrote: »

If I were a GM I think I'd be very tempted to take a gamble on the 2020 season not going ahead and trade as many picks as is realistically possible this year with the aim of accumulating a haul for 2021.

Although that does bring it's own challenges and risks. For example, how much college football will be played this year. And then if 2020 does go ahead you've essentially wasted a year in terms of drafting.

Maybe not a bad gamble for a team in rebuild mode but not one for a franchise in win-now mode.

If anything I'd nearly say the opposite. There is a much bigger risk that the 2020 college season doesn't happen than no NFL season.

If colleges themselves aren't open I doubt they will be able to justify student athletes being on campus and playing games. Also, most colleges rely much more on gameday revenue than the NFL, so it is less likely they'll play without fans.

Even in a franchise in rebuild, I wouldn't want to risk on players with minimal to no tape over a year period.

TheDoctor

Really doesnt feel like draft week.

But very glad to have some liveish sport to watch! Cant wait.

Any idea when the schedule is being released. Usually would be this week.

mikemac2

My Ravens need a pass rusher and a guard as their most pressing needs. For several weeks now AJ Epenesa from Iowa was the most mocked pick at 28 to add pass rushing help

Robert Hunt from Louisiana Lafeyette is a tackle and is considered to be a potential NFL guard. Widely mocked to the Ravens in rounds 2-3

Could do with a blocking tight end also but that can be taken with a day 3 pick

I've seen a few mocks give us a running back on the basis that Mark Ingram is 30 but I do not see it. Our number 2 back Gus Edwards is super and the number 3 Justice Hill is entering his second year and needs more time

I would be perfectly happy if the Ravens trade out of pick 28 and move back to the 2nd round, plenty of good prospects there

eagle eye

I'll be shocked if Jeudy is not the first WR off the board, he has been outstanding all through his college career and when you look at the last three no.1 WR's to come out of Alabama, in Jones, Cooper and Ridley, he's a must if you have the opportunity and you need a no.1.
There seems to be a lot of people saying Swift will go ahead of Jonathan Taylor. I just don't understand that. Taylor imo is out on his own, I'd have had him as the best of last year's class if he went and that class was much stronger than this. I grade him as a first rounder and I think he'll go before the end of tonight. The Dolphins need everything but Taylor would be a great help and they will have the opportunity at 26 or even trade out of there and pick him up a few picks lower down.
For my own team the Patriots I'm just hoping that Jefferson out of LSU is still around when it gets to us. I think he's an awesome talent and I'd love to see him as a Patriot. It's one of our areas of need although with Belichick you just never know what he'll do. We look stacked at cornerback and real good, if a little old, at safety but he could go there. No tight ends are projected to go in the first round so I don't see that happening. We could go linebacker but I think the best in that position will be long gone by the time it gets to us.

Jolly Red Giant

Foxtrol wrote: »

All the above is just excusing drafting scared mindset - because others have failed I don't trust my team to be able to do it correctly.

Look at the last 'historic' deep class for WRs in 2014:

Round 1: Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, OBJ, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin
vs
Round 2: Marqise Lee, Jordan Matthews, Paul Richardson, Davante Adams, Cody Latimer, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry

Yes, there is a bust in round 1 and good players in round 2, but there is a clear difference in quality between both groups.

Trust your front office to pick the right guy or else they shouldn't be there.

Foxy - you really need to make up your mind - are we talking about Denver or not.

The reality is that WRs are notorious busts in R1 of the draft and there is little difference between the success rate of WRs between R1 and R2.

You picked 2014 - go back two years to 2012
Justin Blackmon (1.5) - bust
Michael Floyd (1.13) - caught all of 5 passes for the Pats when BB claimed him of waivers from the Cards
Kendall Wright (1.20) - half decent
A. J. Jenkins (1.30) - bust

Or look at the 2016 draft

Sterling Shepard (2.40)
Michael Thomas (2.47)
Tyler Boyd (2.55)

All better than (and in the case of Thomas - light years ahead of)

Corey Coleman (1.15)
Will Fuller (1.21)- and the only one half decent
Josh Doctson (1.22)
Laquon Treadwell (1.23)

The last time the Broncos took a WR in R1 was in 2010 when Bay-Bay was taken at 22 - and we got a good one (although it was a very risky pick at the time because his broken foot was not healing properly). Prior to that you can forget about Lelie (2002) and Nash (1998 and a complete bust) - you have to go back to Ricky Nattiel in 1987 to get a decent WR taken in R1 by Denver - 1 hit - 1 okay - 1 meh - and 1 complete bust in 40 years.

This is replicated by practically every team across the NFL.

Now - this draft is deep at WR - and the Broncos will take at least one. I will repeat again, I do not have a problem with the Broncos taking Lamb (my preference), Jeudy or Ruggs at no. 15 - I do not want the Broncos to trade up to take one of them. If all three are gone by 15 then you take the BPA - who will likely be an OT - and then you take a WR in R2 where there is still plenty of good players available. Elway then has 3 picks in R3 or he could bundle two of them to move back into R2 - even taking a second WR if he wanted. I would have no problem with that type of trade up - but you do not trade up in R1 for a WR - it is a waste of resources.

Itssoeasy

TheDoctor wrote: »

Really doesnt feel like draft week.

But very glad to have some liveish sport to watch! Cant wait.

Any idea when the schedule is being released. Usually would be this week.

The last thing I watched in any detail NFL was the combine and to be honest I've kept kind of up to speed but not as I normally would around draft time.

Jesus yeah the schedule is normally out around this time of the year isn't it ?The whole stuff with coronavirus has consumed all the world attention in the last few months. For all I know it could be already out.

letowski

Looking forward to this.

The Colts don't even have a pick tonight but I need some sort of sport to keep me going lol.

I'm expecting more surprises than usual this year. Ian Rappaport and Daniel Jeremiah were talking on their podcasts earlier this week about how one of the GM's think the general projections are more 'wronger' this year, given how the pandemic has impacted the process.

Should be a alot of talking points as usual.

Foxtrol

Jolly Red Giant wrote: »

Foxy - you really need to make up your mind - are we talking about Denver or not.

I made it clear what I disagreed with already so I'm not deep diving into the Broncos specific situation.

Foxtrol wrote: »

I agree with your thoughts on what the Broncos should do but still disagree on your initial logic regarding busts.

And again:

Foxtrol wrote: »

Again, I have no problem with what you're now saying from a Denver perspective, it makes a lot of sense.

My disagreement was with you initially leading off your reasoning with the regularly heard cliche around this time of the year that 'WRs in R1 are notorious for being busts'

The reality is that WRs are notorious busts in R1 of the draft and there is little difference between the success rate of WRs between R1 and R2.

You picked 2014

The reason why I picked 2014 was the year everyone is using as comparison for quality against this year. In a normal year there are more reaches, like in all positions when the talent is thinner.

- go back two years to 2012
Justin Blackmon (1.5) - bust
Michael Floyd (1.13) - caught all of 5 passes for the Pats when BB claimed him of waivers from the Cards
Kendall Wright (1.20) - half decent
A. J. Jenkins (1.30) - bust

Look at the round 2 of that year. Aside from 1 they were worse: Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Ryan Broyles, Rueben Randle

Or look at the 2016 draft

Sterling Shepard (2.40)
Michael Thomas (2.47)
Tyler Boyd (2.55)

All better than (and in the case of Thomas - light years ahead of)

Corey Coleman (1.15)
Will Fuller (1.21)- and the only one half decent
Josh Doctson (1.22)
Laquon Treadwell (1.23)

The last time the Broncos took a WR in R1 was in 2010 when Bay-Bay was taken at 22 - and we got a good one (although it was a very risky pick at the time because his broken foot was not healing properly). Prior to that you can forget about Lelie (2002) and Nash (1998 and a complete bust) - you have to go back to Ricky Nattiel in 1987 to get a decent WR taken in R1 by Denver - 1 hit - 1 okay - 1 meh - and 1 complete bust in 40 years.

This is replicated by practically every team across the NFL.

But when you look at elite guys they come from the 1st round more often than any other - Julio Jones, Hopkins, Evans, Green, OBJ, Cooper, Watkins, Cook, Parker.

Drafting WRs late because you think you're better at getting value scouting late guys or that you don't value WR as much as other positions is fine by me but having the failure of others as your main driver is drafting scared and out of hope than actual evaluation.

We might as well agree to disagree. Best of luck to the Broncos tonight

eagle eye

Julia Jones, Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley were all wide receiver first round picks out of Alabama and all have done well.

Itssoeasy

So the commissioner will be announcing the picks from his basement which we got a tour of on NFL network a few minutes ago. This is only the kick off part and they are filling time.