Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

Comhrá

Oscar Bravo

That was some forecast from Michelle Dillon after the 9 news. She mentioned intense thunderstorms a good few times mostly likely Saturday,in the south.
Shes sticking her neck out,its a long way off yet. It would be great to get some proper storms.

Given Ireland's near hopeless record when it comes to delivering decent thunderstorms, I'll contain my exuberance until I see the towers going up and hear the rumbles. Been disappointed way too many times.

esposito

chris2007 wrote: »

what about the chances in dublin the weekend

It’s too early to say. Thunderstorms can be hit and miss. Wouldn’t be surprised if Dublin was in the firing line though. We’ll have a better idea by Thursday.

Oscar Bravo

Comhra wrote: »

Given Ireland's near hopeless record when it comes to delivering decent thunderstorms, I'll contain my exuberance until I see the towers going up and hear the rumbles. Been disappointed way too many times.

Bit like the AN 225 lol

Gaoth Laidir

The GFS has some good CAPE of around 1200 J/kg for Shannon Airport on Saturday afternoon, similar for Kerry Airport and around 900 for Cork and Knock. Nothing for Dublin, given the easterly flow.

It is only the GFS but it does have a cold surface bias so in reality CAPE could turn out to be higher with dewpoints in the mid-teens.

igCorcaigh

https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status/1270621900016934912?s=19

igCorcaigh

Still have hopes for this weekend though..

Jpmarn

Technically ideal conditions for thunderstorms over the coming weekend. Warm continental air from the east. Low pressure to the south. But outside of the showers beach weather.

squarecircles

squarecircles

igCorcaigh

^^ these are, good signs?

highdef

igCorcaigh wrote: »

^^ these are, good signs?

Good conditions for thunderstorm activity for Connaught, North Munster, North Midlands and many parts of Ulster away from the east, going by that chart alone.

PukkaStukka

highdef wrote: »

Good conditions for thunderstorm activity for Connaught, North Munster, North Midlands and many parts of Ulster away from the east, going by that chart alone.

Interestingly, the area's of highest cape were much further south on previous runs and have now shifted north. Its still a fluid situation albeit one with encouraging early signs.

chris2007

Hows it looking for Dublin

Mortelaro

chris2007 wrote: »

Hows it looking for Dublin

Poor

PukkaStukka

Nothing forcast yet for Dublin but Wales could get lively and there's a slight possibility that something might jaunt across the sea to us. But that is on the low side unless there's a big upgrade

Meteorite58

No sferics showed up over Ireland today ( apart from near Wicklow earlier but that might be a false return ) and no reports, was always a bit marginal and quite a messy profile.

The weekend is certainly a much better prospect.

ARPEGE, WRF- GFS showing high CAPE values both Sat and Sunday with plenty of precipitation. ICON different story with much less precipitation and hardly nothing Sunday but this is an outlier I think.

ECM showing very high CAPE values on Sunday but less so on Sat now. Showing very big potential for Thunderstorms on Sunday from the latest charts, quite widespread and currently showing the most in the Western half of the country including the S . Plenty of big heavy showers.

Only Weds. Still a bit to go but could be lively some part of the weekend.

Comhrá

Water John

Someone hadn't their Snickers?
Country in need of a good wetting, but turn off the tap after the weekend, please.

Meteorite58

Might have Thor on our side all right this weekend Comhra :pac:



ICON- EU Higher Res model showing much more potential now for Sat with good CAPE readings and plenty of instability not a lot of shear though but good convergence. Showing Temps in the high teens touching 20 C or so with high DP of 14 to 16C as is ARPEGE but ECM is now cooler and cloudier with lower DP.

Would be very lively if we got what the ECM is showing for Sunday.

Feature of the rainfall over the weekend will be heavy slow moving showers or thunderstorms if they materialize. Met Eireann mentioning possibility of localized spot flooding the weekend.

Meteorite58

Just looking through the models and Met Eireanns forecast would see higher temperatures and Dp in general then what the ECM is showing for Saturday.

Meteorite58

Today going by the charts ,in my amateur opinion, Sunday is shaping up to be a very memorable day for Thunderstorms / heavy rain / hail all leading to possible localized spot flooding and possible power outages. Lets be a bit sensationalist about it, haven't seen charts like this for a long time and from what I am seeing having watched the charts closely this last week, all the models are coming on board showing potential for widespread thunderstorms breaking out from early ( might have some storms in the early hours ) some might even be severe in the Western half of the country in the afternoon especially in the W.

Following a relatively mild humid night looks like getting warm and very humid from early morning, troughs transit the country coinciding with peak diurnal heating, the upper low spreads cold air aloft giving very decent or high CAPE readings, all a very slow moving affair with thunderstorms slow moving or near parked giving huge downpours of rain and possibly hail and gusty localized winds. Looking like proper convection. Funnels a possibility. Going by the current charts I would foresee warnings for hazardous driving conditions and spot flooding.

Low level shear, Deep layer Shear looking decent, notable convergence zones, very high Dew Points of 15 or 16C, decent vorticity, high Theta E readings, what could possibly go wrong :pac:

Saturday the ECM is back on board with parameters giving possible thuderstorms for the Southern half of the country.

What do ya think?

Meteorite58

Saturday ECM Skew T for near Killkenny and the bottom one for Waterford giving decent CAPE readings, and potential very heavy localized rainfall.

Gaoth Laidir

Even better, 1300 J/kg CAPE in the Galway/Mayo area Sunday evening. Unusual to get such high values in Ireland. Applicable shear of around 15 knots from 400-850 hPa is marginal, and with such a narrow CAPE profile, pulse-type storms are likely. All surface-based, so relying on good clear spells to maximise heating.

Interesting weekend ahead if you're west. Are you listening, Oneiric?

Oscar Bravo

Nice one G.L . will be on the look out. shame Knock not issuing TAF's

Gaoth Laidir

This is equlibrium level for Saturday evening (the temperature at the top of the convection zone, where updrafts loose buoyancy). Values below about -30 °C mean lightning is very likely. In the west it's around -40 °C. Sunday's chart is not available yet but I would reckon it will show similar or even lower. Check out updates here

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/

Mortelaro

Meteorite58 wrote: »

What do ya think

I think here in Arklow based on all that,I think its likely that we can fly metal coated kites with long thin metal wires high in our open fields Saturday and sunday without much risk,ditto along the east coast and Dublin

Everyone else further west may stay indoors with earplugs and dark sun glasses and further west still,perhaps secure the delf in the dresser as it might move about or break with the noise
People up through Galway and Mayo sensitive to flash photography would also need to pull down the black out blinds

Speaking of blackouts,I'd advise having phone batteries charged and the stove lit for cooking the dinner out west

Comhrá

Mortelaro wrote: »

I think here in Arklow based on all that,I think its likely that we can fly metal coated kites with long thin metal wires high in our open fields Saturday and sunday without much risk,ditto along the east coast and Dublin

Everyone else further west may stay indoors with earplugs and dark sun glasses and further west still,perhaps secure the delf in the dresser as it might move about or break with the noise
People up through Galway and Mayo sensitive to flash photography would also need to pull down the black out blinds

Speaking of blackouts,I'd advise having phone batteries charged and the stove lit for cooking the dinner out west

Reversal

Mortelaro wrote: »

I think here in Arklow based on all that,I think its likely that we can fly metal coated kites with long thin metal wires high in our open fields Saturday and sunday without much risk,ditto along the east coast and Dublin

Everyone else further west may stay indoors with earplugs and dark sun glasses and further west still,perhaps secure the delf in the dresser as it might move about or break with the noise
People up through Galway and Mayo sensitive to flash photography would also need to pull down the black out blinds

Speaking of blackouts,I'd advise having phone batteries charged and the stove lit for cooking the dinner out west

Wouldn't be so sure, latest Harmonie showing a good chunk of the cells for Saturday being imported from the Irish Sea. Mostly affecting Waterford, Wexford and Wicklow during Saturday evening. Some home grown cells in the inland south east too, but not widespread into the West or north of Kilkenny. Just one model of course but interesting.

Mortelaro

Reversal wrote: »

Wouldn't be so sure, latest Harmonie showing a good chunk of the cells for Saturday being imported from the Irish Sea. Mostly affecting Waterford, Wexford and Wicklow during Saturday evening. Some home grown cells in the inland south east too, but not widespread into the West or north of Kilkenny. Just one model of course but interesting.

I was just commenting on the runs meteorite posted
In my experience it's rare for a returning northeasterly to bring thunder onto the east coast,it usually mutes the electrified elements of storms
Its a different case in winter when you have a super cold northeaserly moving over a warm relatively Irish sea
Summer exceptions are short sea crossings of imported extreme storms from wales that arose from high heat and humidity there
I don't expect that

pad199207

I’m posting this image here because it will probably get about 50,000 thank yous for the fact that is shows the Dublin Area getting what looks like quite a decent storm tomorrow evening! :P