Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

igCorcaigh

pad199207 wrote: »

I’m posting this image here because it will probably get about 50,000 thank yous for the fact that is shows the Dublin Area getting what looks like quite a decent storm tomorrow evening! :P

Cork might get lucky?

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207 wrote: »

Aye but just like porn it can lead to unrealistic expectations

Meteorite58

pad199207 wrote: »

I’m posting this image here because it will probably get about 50,000 thank yous for the fact that is shows the Dublin Area getting what looks like quite a decent storm tomorrow evening! :P

ECM is showing potential around 05.00 or 06.00 Sun morning for Dublin. All down to timing, looks like a trough will transit during the early hours, warm sticky night with a Dp of about 13 or 14C in the E.

WRF shows what I think is the CAPE corresponding with the passage of the trough ?

ICON showing potential also for the E , a bit after the GFS and during the early hours also.

Would need to see tomorrow's charts to be more certain.

Meteorite58

ECM still showing big potential for Sunday, widespread thunderstorms, more so the western half of the country but could get storms a bit in from the Eastern coasts.

Skew T for near Sligo showing plenty of CAPE over 1200 J/kg and Li at -4

For a few runs ECM has been showing the most potential in the W, wouldn't rule out the possibility of some severe storms there Sunday Evening.

Meteorite58

Southern half of the country seeing heavy convective showeres and possible thunderstorms on Saturday. Probably more so from the afternoon into the evening.










Nice convergence zones tomorrow afternoon / evening, will be keep an eye on the highlighted area.

SleetAndSnow

Having a party tomorrow just before my birthday (follow regulations of course!). Maybe will get a free light show to make it even more entertaining!

ZX7R

I see met eairann have a weather advisory issued for thundery down pours leading to spot flooding for Munster and south Leinster

squarecircles

the advisory seems to have disappeared,

Oscar Bravo

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Prolonged thundery downpours this weekend, mainly in Munster and south Leinster on Saturday afternoon and evening. Becoming widespread on Sunday afternoon and evening, with a risk of spot flooding.

Valid: 12:00 Saturday 13/06/2020 to 21:00 Sunday 14/06/2020

Issued: 20:00 Friday 12/06/20

squarecircles

i wonder what are the chances of an orange warning for thunderstorms in the west on sunday.

igCorcaigh

Ooh this seems like it could be quite a prolonged event!

pad199207

squarecircles wrote: »

i wonder what are the chances of an orange warning for thunderstorms in the west on sunday.

It will be a last minute thing for individual counties

igCorcaigh

squarecircles wrote: »

i wonder what are the chances of an orange warning for thunderstorms in the west on sunday.

Imagine!

Have we ever had colour coded thunderstorm warnings?

pad199207

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Imagine!

Have we ever had colour coded thunderstorm warnings?

Lots of times. Don’t recall any red levels though.

Chris_5339762

On that note, what is a red level fog warning??? Does one exist?

Rougies

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

On that note, what is a red level fog warning??? Does one exist?

Red warnings for fog or thunderstorms don't exist, they only go to orange.


https://www.met.ie/met-eireann-warning-system-explained

Reckless Abandonment

Rougies wrote: »

Red warnings for fog or thunderstorms don't exist, they only go to orange.


https://www.met.ie/met-eireann-warning-system-explained

Could have sworn I've seen a few for fog before.

SnowyMuckish

I thought the west was supposed to be affected? Has that changed since the warnings were issued? I was looking forward to a bit of a storm!

Oscar Bravo

SnowyMuckish wrote: »

I thought the west was supposed to be affected? Has that changed since the warnings were issued? I was looking forward to a bit of a storm!

Best chance for Galway/Mayo Sunday late afternoon/evening (at the moment)

Gaoth Laidir

Given low shear values (around 10 knots) over the weekend expect pulse-type storms to produce brief bouts of lightning from around mid-afternoon to late evening tomorrow and Sunday, preferably through Munster and Connactht tomorrow and Connacht on Sunday. Further east we could see some limited action, but it's likely to depend on local convergence zones for initiation. Wicklow mountains may feature in generating some uplift and convergence in the easterly flow, but overall it should be a case of numerous pulse storms continuously evolving, peaking and then each dying out in less than an hour. Most unstable CAPE is surface-based, so cloud cover will affect these values, but peaks look like near 1500 J/kg west of the Shannon basin tomorrow and Sunday afternoons, where land fetch is longest.

An interesting weekend ahead, but let's not loose the run of ourselves. A lot of people should see some lightning action but a lot won't too, so the usual disclaimer applies.

Meteorite58

AROME Hi Res up to early Sun Morning. Showing a line of very heavy rain from possible thunderstorms going through Munster tomorrow afternoon / evening. Looks to coincide with the passage of a trough. Might get a proper storm here in Kerry too. The land could certainly do with it, my ponds are practically dried out.

Only 10 mm rainfall here this month, 41.8mm including May , ground is like rock.

Meteorite58

HARMONIE

High Dp on Sunday

Oneiric 3

Struggling to get enthused about this. If we see charts like this closer the time then maybe I might perk up an ear.



but 2 days is a hell long time in the world of model watching and especially in delicate situations like this. No doubt some will see some 'popcorn' type showers but hit and miss jobs at best.

Danno

Looks like the western midlands across into the Golden Vale are likely to see some action in the mid-late afternoon, then as the low "flabs" out and the airflow slows/stalls, some late evening storms for the three-sisters-valley areas. (Nore-Suir-Barrow). With pressure dropping there could be some spectacular storms around the M8-M9 routes country tomorrow as the sun downs.

Oneiric 3

Danno wrote: »

Looks like the western midlands across into the Golden Vale are likely to see some action in the mid-late afternoon, then as the low "flabs" out and the airflow slows/stalls, some late evening storms for the three-sisters-valley areas. (Nore-Suir-Barrow). With pressure dropping there could be some spectacular storms around the M8-M9 routes country tomorrow as the sun downs.

Given that the ground is so dry at the moment, where is any potential evaporation to help build up those showers going to come from?

SouthWesterly

Meteorite58 wrote: »

AROME Hi Res up to early Sun Morning. Showing a line of very heavy rain from possible thunderstorms going through Munster tomorrow afternoon / evening. Looks to coincide with the passage of a trough. Might get a proper storm here in Kerry too. The land could certainly do with it, my ponds are practically dried out.

Only 10 mm rainfall here this month, 41.8mm including May , ground is like rock.

]

Interesting. I've had just over 15 mm and I'm not too far from you.
Think Banna might well be the place to be tomorrow.... Or maybe not

Danno

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Given that the ground is so dry at the moment, where is any potential evaporation to help build up those showers going to come from?

I don't think that local soil moisture deficits will actually be a hazard to these storms, in fact I think they'll be an aid! Heat from the day sun will provide the uplift. Dry land radiates heat much better.

The relevant moisture will be imported from Biscay and off Land's End high up into the atmosphere long before it reaches these districts.

I'm counting on the cold -40c's well high up to provide the trigger to all this.

The Wicklow mtns serving as a useful ramp to get the warm moist up into these layers to give the kick...

Ramping a bit here... just like the Wicklows (hopefully)

Danno

Just to add, farmers and gardeners hoping for substantial rainfall totals may end up more disappointing that not across wide swathes of the country... these will be elevated storms. A lightning storm fanatic's dream, a man of the land, not.

Meteorite58

SouthWesterly wrote: »

Interesting. I've had just over 15 mm and I'm not too far from you.
Think Banna might well be the place to be tomorrow.... Or maybe not

Would love a proper show, AROME our best bet but this might peak inland before it gets to coastal Kerry ? Perhaps W Cork / E Kerry will do well, will need to see tomorrows charts but around Limerick and Clare could feature also.

SleetAndSnow

Looks like Cork City has a small enough chance of sparks, not the highest though. Mostly north cork and west cork see the biggest changes of sparks