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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2020

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Just starting new thread for the season(s). Nothing to report!

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ZX7R

I see met eairann have a weather advisory issued for thundery down pours leading to spot flooding for Munster and south Leinster

SleetAndSnow

Having a party tomorrow just before my birthday (follow regulations of course!). Maybe will get a free light show to make it even more entertaining!

Meteorite58

Southern half of the country seeing heavy convective showeres and possible thunderstorms on Saturday. Probably more so from the afternoon into the evening.

Nice convergence zones tomorrow afternoon / evening, will be keep an eye on the highlighted area.

Meteorite58

ECM still showing big potential for Sunday, widespread thunderstorms, more so the western half of the country but could get storms a bit in from the Eastern coasts.

Skew T for near Sligo showing plenty of CAPE over 1200 J/kg and Li at -4

For a few runs ECM has been showing the most potential in the W, wouldn't rule out the possibility of some severe storms there Sunday Evening.

Meteorite58

pad199207 wrote: »

I’m posting this image here because it will probably get about 50,000 thank yous for the fact that is shows the Dublin Area getting what looks like quite a decent storm tomorrow evening! :P

ECM is showing potential around 05.00 or 06.00 Sun morning for Dublin. All down to timing, looks like a trough will transit during the early hours, warm sticky night with a Dp of about 13 or 14C in the E.

WRF shows what I think is the CAPE corresponding with the passage of the trough ?

ICON showing potential also for the E , a bit after the GFS and during the early hours also.

Would need to see tomorrow's charts to be more certain.

Kermit.de.frog

pad199207 wrote: »

Aye but just like porn it can lead to unrealistic expectations

igCorcaigh

pad199207 wrote: »

I’m posting this image here because it will probably get about 50,000 thank yous for the fact that is shows the Dublin Area getting what looks like quite a decent storm tomorrow evening! :P

Cork might get lucky?

pad199207

I’m posting this image here because it will probably get about 50,000 thank yous for the fact that is shows the Dublin Area getting what looks like quite a decent storm tomorrow evening! :P

Mortelaro

Reversal wrote: »

Wouldn't be so sure, latest Harmonie showing a good chunk of the cells for Saturday being imported from the Irish Sea. Mostly affecting Waterford, Wexford and Wicklow during Saturday evening. Some home grown cells in the inland south east too, but not widespread into the West or north of Kilkenny. Just one model of course but interesting.

I was just commenting on the runs meteorite posted
In my experience it's rare for a returning northeasterly to bring thunder onto the east coast,it usually mutes the electrified elements of storms
Its a different case in winter when you have a super cold northeaserly moving over a warm relatively Irish sea
Summer exceptions are short sea crossings of imported extreme storms from wales that arose from high heat and humidity there
I don't expect that

Reversal

Mortelaro wrote: »

I think here in Arklow based on all that,I think its likely that we can fly metal coated kites with long thin metal wires high in our open fields Saturday and sunday without much risk,ditto along the east coast and Dublin

Everyone else further west may stay indoors with earplugs and dark sun glasses and further west still,perhaps secure the delf in the dresser as it might move about or break with the noise
People up through Galway and Mayo sensitive to flash photography would also need to pull down the black out blinds

Speaking of blackouts,I'd advise having phone batteries charged and the stove lit for cooking the dinner out west

Wouldn't be so sure, latest Harmonie showing a good chunk of the cells for Saturday being imported from the Irish Sea. Mostly affecting Waterford, Wexford and Wicklow during Saturday evening. Some home grown cells in the inland south east too, but not widespread into the West or north of Kilkenny. Just one model of course but interesting.

Comhrá

Mortelaro wrote: »

I think here in Arklow based on all that,I think its likely that we can fly metal coated kites with long thin metal wires high in our open fields Saturday and sunday without much risk,ditto along the east coast and Dublin

Everyone else further west may stay indoors with earplugs and dark sun glasses and further west still,perhaps secure the delf in the dresser as it might move about or break with the noise
People up through Galway and Mayo sensitive to flash photography would also need to pull down the black out blinds

Speaking of blackouts,I'd advise having phone batteries charged and the stove lit for cooking the dinner out west

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Mortelaro

Meteorite58 wrote: »

What do ya think

I think here in Arklow based on all that,I think its likely that we can fly metal coated kites with long thin metal wires high in our open fields Saturday and sunday without much risk,ditto along the east coast and Dublin

Everyone else further west may stay indoors with earplugs and dark sun glasses and further west still,perhaps secure the delf in the dresser as it might move about or break with the noise
People up through Galway and Mayo sensitive to flash photography would also need to pull down the black out blinds

Speaking of blackouts,I'd advise having phone batteries charged and the stove lit for cooking the dinner out west

Gaoth Laidir

This is equlibrium level for Saturday evening (the temperature at the top of the convection zone, where updrafts loose buoyancy). Values below about -30 °C mean lightning is very likely. In the west it's around -40 °C. Sunday's chart is not available yet but I would reckon it will show similar or even lower. Check out updates here

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/

Oscar Bravo

Nice one G.L . will be on the look out. shame Knock not issuing TAF's

Gaoth Laidir

Even better, 1300 J/kg CAPE in the Galway/Mayo area Sunday evening. Unusual to get such high values in Ireland. Applicable shear of around 15 knots from 400-850 hPa is marginal, and with such a narrow CAPE profile, pulse-type storms are likely. All surface-based, so relying on good clear spells to maximise heating.

Interesting weekend ahead if you're west. Are you listening, Oneiric?

Meteorite58

Saturday ECM Skew T for near Killkenny and the bottom one for Waterford giving decent CAPE readings, and potential very heavy localized rainfall.

Meteorite58

Today going by the charts ,in my amateur opinion, Sunday is shaping up to be a very memorable day for Thunderstorms / heavy rain / hail all leading to possible localized spot flooding and possible power outages. Lets be a bit sensationalist about it, haven't seen charts like this for a long time and from what I am seeing having watched the charts closely this last week, all the models are coming on board showing potential for widespread thunderstorms breaking out from early ( might have some storms in the early hours ) some might even be severe in the Western half of the country in the afternoon especially in the W.

Following a relatively mild humid night looks like getting warm and very humid from early morning, troughs transit the country coinciding with peak diurnal heating, the upper low spreads cold air aloft giving very decent or high CAPE readings, all a very slow moving affair with thunderstorms slow moving or near parked giving huge downpours of rain and possibly hail and gusty localized winds. Looking like proper convection. Funnels a possibility. Going by the current charts I would foresee warnings for hazardous driving conditions and spot flooding.

Low level shear, Deep layer Shear looking decent, notable convergence zones, very high Dew Points of 15 or 16C, decent vorticity, high Theta E readings, what could possibly go wrong :pac:

Saturday the ECM is back on board with parameters giving possible thuderstorms for the Southern half of the country.

What do ya think?

Meteorite58

Just looking through the models and Met Eireanns forecast would see higher temperatures and Dp in general then what the ECM is showing for Saturday.

Meteorite58

Might have Thor on our side all right this weekend Comhra :pac:

ICON- EU Higher Res model showing much more potential now for Sat with good CAPE readings and plenty of instability not a lot of shear though but good convergence. Showing Temps in the high teens touching 20 C or so with high DP of 14 to 16C as is ARPEGE but ECM is now cooler and cloudier with lower DP.

Would be very lively if we got what the ECM is showing for Sunday.

Feature of the rainfall over the weekend will be heavy slow moving showers or thunderstorms if they materialize. Met Eireann mentioning possibility of localized spot flooding the weekend.

Water John

Someone hadn't their Snickers?
Country in need of a good wetting, but turn off the tap after the weekend, please.

Comhrá

Meteorite58

No sferics showed up over Ireland today ( apart from near Wicklow earlier but that might be a false return ) and no reports, was always a bit marginal and quite a messy profile.

The weekend is certainly a much better prospect.

ARPEGE, WRF- GFS showing high CAPE values both Sat and Sunday with plenty of precipitation. ICON different story with much less precipitation and hardly nothing Sunday but this is an outlier I think.

ECM showing very high CAPE values on Sunday but less so on Sat now. Showing very big potential for Thunderstorms on Sunday from the latest charts, quite widespread and currently showing the most in the Western half of the country including the S . Plenty of big heavy showers.

Only Weds. Still a bit to go but could be lively some part of the weekend.

PukkaStukka

Nothing forcast yet for Dublin but Wales could get lively and there's a slight possibility that something might jaunt across the sea to us. But that is on the low side unless there's a big upgrade

Mortelaro

chris2007 wrote: »

Hows it looking for Dublin

Poor

chris2007

Hows it looking for Dublin

PukkaStukka

highdef wrote: »

Good conditions for thunderstorm activity for Connaught, North Munster, North Midlands and many parts of Ulster away from the east, going by that chart alone.

Interestingly, the area's of highest cape were much further south on previous runs and have now shifted north. Its still a fluid situation albeit one with encouraging early signs.

highdef

igCorcaigh wrote: »

^^ these are, good signs?

Good conditions for thunderstorm activity for Connaught, North Munster, North Midlands and many parts of Ulster away from the east, going by that chart alone.

igCorcaigh

^^ these are, good signs?

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