General British politics discussion thread

Nody

Does anyone actually know what would happen if Boris bites the dust? I know from this article that government's position is that Dominic Raab (shudder) would be deputized to lead but how would a final new PM be handled as the experts appear to state it's not a clear cut case here? You can't have a new party election in person obviously (esp. as most members would fall in the category of most vulnerable to the corona virus) but how do you confirm the persons via e-mail voting? It's not like the government can remain without a PM for an extended period of time and the tories would never want another public election either.

Joe_ Public

I dont know is honest answer. Can there ever be any parliamentary instruction for how to proceed in the event you lose your pm in the midst of a pandemic. I'm going to assume common sense takes over, which unfortunately in this case means Dominic Raab probably taking charge until such a time a regular election can take place.

Tom Mann Centuria

Im sure all the young go getters of the Tory 1922 committee would come up with a way to vote for a new leader online if it were ever necessary.

ArmaniJeanss

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I'm going to assume common sense takes over, which unfortunately in this case means Dominic Raab probably taking charge until such a time a regular election can take place.

That's kinda problematic if you are someone who has their eye on the top job, but time and age are a little against you.

Can you afford to give Dover Dom the chance to be the hero who gets the country through the crisis? He then walks the election amongst the members - in fact there may not even be an election as the word goes out that the country needs stability and thus no other MP should stand. It could be another 8 years until the vacancy arises again, and the millennials may then see it as their time.

So maybe it's better to make sure the mp/membership election is called as soon as possible (democratic procedures must be followed blah blah) and be that hero instead.
You could see such how such permutations would be keeping (as a wild example) Michael Gove awake at night.

Joe_ Public

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

That's kinda problematic if you are someone who has their eye on the top job, but time and age are a little against you.

Can you afford to give Dover Dom the chance to be the hero who gets the country through the crisis? He then walks the election amongst the members - in fact there may not even be an election as the word goes out that the country needs stability and thus no other MP should stand. It could be another 8 years until the vacancy arises again, and the millennials may then see it as their time.

So maybe it's better to make sure the mp/membership election is called as soon as possible (democratic procedures must be followed blah blah) and be that hero instead.
You could see such how such permutations would be keeping (as a wild example) Michael Gove awake at night.

Yeah, totally see that side of it. Not a great situation for the mighty gover with a beady eye on his rightful throne. But risky enough to be pushing for leadership contests when people just want someone left alone to get on with the job. Tricky one i think.

After this clown dunno how the prosect of a raab v gove death match would grab me. Anyway i think it will take more than a pesky virus to take johnson down, i can picture him any minute now trying to administer bear hugs to all the staff who treated him as he gets ready to save the nation again.

PommieBast

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

I always thought Labour made a massive blunder not picking her to replace Ed Miliband in the first place.

I think they should have gone for Liz Kendall on the basis she was new blood and Labour needed a blank sheet. Back in 2015 the assumption under the FTP was no election until 2020 by which time any association with the 2005-2010 administration would be excess baggage.

ArmaniJeanss

Couple of posters seem happy that Jess Philips didn't get any role.
Any reason for this?

I'd have though young, female, from a midlands region that Labour need to do well in, a reasonable level of profile and name recognition would all have been positive points for her. And she has some small support in the party with over 20 MPs voting for her in the first round.

Joe_ Public

I'm neutral on Phillips. I said earlier I'd be curious what Starmer would make of her, if anything. I'm impressed at times, she can cut through the faff, but then other times she seems a bit calculating. Like that stuff with mogg for example, just hard to work out. I just have Lisa Nandy, for one, way ahead of her.

Tom Mann Centuria

There are far better people, from all wings of the party than Phillips.

BonnieSituation

devnull wrote: »

Full List of new Shadow Cabinet

Keir Starmer, Leader of the Opposition
Angela Rayner, Deputy Leader and Chair of the Labour Party
Anneliese Dodds, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer
Lisa Nandy, Shadow Foreign Secretary
Nick Thomas-Symonds, Shadow Home Secretary
Rachel Reeves, Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
David Lammy, Shadow Justice Secretary
John Healey, Shadow Defence Secretary
Ed Miliband, Shadow Business, Energy and Industrial Secretary
Emily Thornberry, Shadow International Trade Secretary
Jonathan Reynolds, Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary
Jonathan Ashworth, Shadow Secretary of State for Health and Social Care
Rebecca Long-Bailey, Shadow Education Secretary
Jo Stevens, Shadow Digital, Culture, Media and Sport
Bridget Philipson, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Luke Pollard, Shadow Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Secretary
Steve Reed, Shadow Communities and Local Government Secretary
Thangam Debbonaire, Shadow Housing Secretary
Jim McMahon, Shadow Transport Secretary
Preet Kaur Gill, Shadow International Development Secretary
Louise Haigh, Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary (interim)
Ian Murray, Shadow Scotland Secretary
Nia Griffith, Shadow Wales Secretary
Marsha de Cordova, Shadow Women and Equalities Secretary
Andy McDonald, Shadow Employment Rights and Protections Secretary
Rosena Allin-Khan, Shadow Minister for Mental Health
Cat Smith, Shadow Minister for Young People and Voter Engagement
Lord Falconer, Shadow Attorney General
Valerie Vaz, Shadow Leader of the House
Nick Brown, Opposition Chief Whip
Baroness Smith, Shadow Leader of the Lords
Lord McAvoy, Lords’ Opposition Chief Whip

Louise Haigh, Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary (interim)

Interim?

Tom Mann Centuria

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Louise Haigh, Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary (interim)

Interim?

Tony Lloyd is unwell with covid19, so she's covering for him.

ArmaniJeanss

Johnson moved to ICU according to breaking news on Sky, pretty serious.

Seth Brundle

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Louise Haigh, Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary (interim)

Interim?

Is she a temp while Tony Lloyd recovers from Covid19?

moon2

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Johnson moved to ICU according to breaking news on Sky, pretty serious.

There was some (apparent) disinformation released about him being on a ventilator well before now. Is this news from a reliable source?

ArmaniJeanss

moon2 wrote: »

There was some (apparent) disinformation released about him being on a ventilator well before now. Is this news from a reliable source?

I said nothing about a ventilator.

The ICU part is from an official spokesperson, it's on like every news channel at the moment.

listermint

moon2 wrote: »

There was some (apparent) disinformation released about him being on a ventilator well before now. Is this news from a reliable source?

That wasn't misinformation.

Professor Moriarty

Just under half of patients in ICU as a result of Covid-19 will die.

Nody

moon2 wrote: »

There was some (apparent) disinformation released about him being on a ventilator well before now. Is this news from a reliable source?

Mr Johnson has asked Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab to deputise "where necessary", a spokesman added.

The prime minister, 55, was admitted to St Thomas' Hospital in London with "persistent symptoms" on Sunday.

The spokesman said he was moved on the advice of his medical team and is receiving "excellent care".

A statement read: "Since Sunday evening, the prime minister has been under the care of doctors at St Thomas' Hospital, in London, after being admitted with persistent symptoms of coronavirus.

"Over the course of this afternoon, the condition of the prime minister has worsened and, on the advice of his medical team, he has been moved to the intensive care unit at the hospital."

It continued: "The PM is receiving excellent care, and thanks all NHS staff for their hard work and dedication."

Above taken from the BBC article.

johnnyskeleton

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Couple of posters seem happy that Jess Philips didn't get any role.
Any reason for this?

I'd have though young, female, from a midlands region that Labour need to do well in, a reasonable level of profile and name recognition would all have been positive points for her. And she has some small support in the party with over 20 MPs voting for her in the first round.

She's been a vocal opponent of Brexit, which goes against the Labour Party official policy of vague ambivalence. When she was thinking of running for Labour leader, she had to reign it in a fair bit.

moon2

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I said nothing about a ventilator.

The ICU part is from an official spokesperson, it's on like every news channel at the moment.

I know you didn't. It's just hard to tell what's true at the moment and sky also reported this very recently:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-downing-street-slams-russian-disinformation-over-boris-johnson-ventilator-claim-11969398

You can understand why I asked for further information considering i couldn't find your story on sky at the time

Headshot

Johnson wouldnt be put into intensive care unless there's something seriously wrong and I would strongly suspect a ventilator is helping him breath

No 10 really should come out and tell the UK public how bad he really is, it's obvious they are covering

Capt'n Midnight

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just under half of patients in ICU as a result of Covid-19 will die.

That unfortunately is is the reality.

Hopefully it will act as a wakeup call in the UK and to Trump to take things more seriously.

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Johnson wouldnt be put into intensive care unless there's something seriously wrong and I would strongly suspect a ventilator is helping him breath

No 10 really should come out and tell the UK public how bad he really is, it's obvious they are covering

Doesn't the fact that he is in ICU tell you that the situation isn't good, what do you want, a live video stream!

I see that some "news" outlets are already announcing his death!
https://www.thewhitehouseinsider.com/2020/04/boris-johnson-becomes-first-world.html?m=1

AllForIt

Sam Russell wrote: »

No Diane Abbott?

She announced earlier she intends to leave the shadow cabinet.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/23/diane-abbott-quit-shadow-cabinet-new-labour-leader-elected-12287027/


I'm disappointing because I'll miss the comedy.

AllForIt

No surprise no role for Jess Phillips. Who'd want a loudmouth gaff prone person in one's shadow cabinet when you're trying to create a good image. Not even worth it for the babe diversity image. Wise decision.

VinLieger

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Just under half of patients in ICU as a result of Covid-19 will die.

This is not true.

The lie is coming from an audit of 2249 patients.
The data showed that of the 690 patients in the sample whose care outcomes were known, 346 - 50.1 per cent - had died, while 344 had been discharged.
The remaining patients, 1,559, were reported still to be in critical care.

All the rags chose to run with a 50% death rate which is not true as the majority of outcomes were not yet known.

VinLieger

VinLieger wrote: »

This is not true.

The lie is coming from an audit of 2249 patients.
The data showed that of the 690 patients in the sample whose care outcomes were known, 346 - 50.1 per cent - had died, while 344 had been discharged.
The remaining patients, 1,559, were reported still to be in critical care.

All the rags chose to run with a 50% death rate which is not true as the majority of outcomes were not yet known.

Do you know the average length of stay in ICU for COVID-19 victims, could he be there for several weeks?

Nody

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you know the average length of stay in ICU for COVID-19 victims, could he be there for several weeks?

This is from Italy:

He said COVID-19 sufferers were spending more than 15 days in intensive care, much longer than the average five to six days for other patients.

The real worry appears to be if you go on ventilation or not:

The largest study so far to look at mortality among coronavirus patients on ventilators was done by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre in London. It found that among 98 ventilated patients in the U.K., just 33 were discharged alive.

The numbers from a study of Wuhan, China, are even grimmer. Only 3 of 22 ventilated patients survived.

And a study of 18 ventilated patients in Washington state found that nine were still alive when the study ended, but only six had recovered enough to breathe on their own.

Worth noting that while he received oxygen when he was admitted he's not (as far as we know) on a ventilator yet.

Professor Moriarty

VinLieger wrote: »

This is not true.

The lie is coming from an audit of 2249 patients.
The data showed that of the 690 patients in the sample whose care outcomes were known, 346 - 50.1 per cent - had died, while 344 had been discharged.
The remaining patients, 1,559, were reported still to be in critical care.

All the rags chose to run with a 50% death rate which is not true as the majority of outcomes were not yet known.

This analysis is very interesting. The data shows categorically that 48% died and 52% were discharged (though some have been readmitted). Where it gets interesting in the analysis is in how various experts in the field are interpreting the data.




“Most cases are still being treated in an ICU (609). A total of 86 patients have been discharged from the ICU, though a proportion of these have had to be readmitted. Seventy-six patients have died.