Corona Virus & cycling impact (see mode note post 1322)

at1withmyself

Just seen that the UAE tour has been finished up today due to the virus. That's shortened by 2 stages.

Also talk now of races in northern Italy being scoped for cancellation. I imagine more will follow in neighbouring countries. Even the big 3 tours must be reviewing the situation now.

Its a tough one, as much as I enjoy watching cycling I think it's the right decision for the riders & teams.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/final-uae-tour-stages-called-off-over-coronavirus-fears/

Yeah right call I think and the GC was over. Bizarre changes to the route in that race though, they had to do the same climb two days this week.

In Italy we could be at risk of losing Strada Bianche which is next week and Milan San Remo, as well as some of the womens races and the Giro due to start in Hungary on May 9th.

I think some riders have already changed their programs in case the Italian races are called off, Wout Van Aert is one of them.

I want to see bike racing but not at the cost of anyone's health.

The other thing I saw mentioned briefly somewhere was the effect on manufacturing of bikes and components in China.

triggermortis

Deleted User wrote: »

The other thing I saw mentioned briefly somewhere was the effect on manufacturing of bikes and components in China.

I was in a shop today and the staff there were mentioning the same. Might be a good time to stock up on parts before prices rise

Steve SilverMint

Reports two participants from Italian team have tested positive.

Kaisr Sose

When I heard of the outbreak in Northern Italy Immediately thought that's going to impact on Milan San Remo. Long time away but it may be cancelled due to the gathering of people to watch it along the route

Steve SilverMint

Kaisr Sose wrote: »

When I heard of the outbreak in Northern Italy Immediately thought that's going to impact on Milan San Remo. Long time away but it may be cancelled due to the gathering of people to watch it along the route

Strade Bianche is 7th March they’ll have to call on that soon. I expect to see Italian races cancelled.

kenmc

Steve SilverMint wrote: »

Reports two participants from Italian team have tested positive.

Bennet and Dunbar being tested, among others https://www.rte.ie/amp/1118069/

Milan San Remo had some doubts earlier this year due to the state of the Poggio.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/milan-san-remo-doubt-e10-million-poggio-repair-hangs-balance-445781

Ouch for RCS if they footed the bill for repairs and the race was called off.

Daroxtar

On a more local level, if the virus arrives here then club spins and all the associated spluttering and snotting will have to be reassessed

harringtonp

Yes. Cycling news had just mentioned covid 19 fears but then saw on BBC last night that 2 Italian riders tested positive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/51667939

Makes me think that the number of reported cases is only the tip of the iceberg, especially in less developed countries.

I'd also presumed that cycling being outdoors and moving may not be too contagious an environment. But thinking more about it , compact bunches with guys riding and breathing hard, spitting and snotting could potentially be lethal.

Guess if you are under the weather you won't be cycling but if it's contagious before symptoms emerge and can be transmitted in an apparently healthy state that's another story.

1bryan

I would suggest that if, and when, covid-19 arrives in Ireland in earnest, cyclists won't be among the most at-risk groups.

cdaly_

harringtonp wrote: »

Yes. Cycling news had just mentioned covid 19 fears but then saw on BBC last night that 2 Italian riders tested positive

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/51667939

Makes me think that the number of reported cases is only the tip of the iceberg, especially in less developed countries.

I'd also presumed that cycling being outdoors and moving may not be too contagious an environment. But thinking more about it , compact bunches with guys riding and breathing hard, spitting and snotting could potentially be lethal.

Guess if you are under the weather you won't be cycling but if it's contagious before symptoms emerge and can be transmitted in an apparently healthy state that's another story.

Ride Audax. Hundreds of km pretty much on your own...

fat bloke

UAE tour cancelled. Declan Quigley has tweeted that they're on lockdown in the Crowne Plaza, Abu Dhabi.

It's easy to be blasé and think "not so bad!" but fcuk it, a hotel room is a hotel room, and I wouldn't fancy being restricted to the confines of one for a fortnight!

RobertFoster

cdaly_ wrote: »

Ride Audax. Hundreds of km pretty much on your own...

Good practice for the post apocalypse too.

dakar

1bryan wrote: »

I would suggest that if, and when, covid-19 arrives in Ireland in earnest, cyclists won't be among the most at-risk groups.

To a certain extent, you are correct, reasonably fit healthy individuals with robust immune systems are less likely to suffer catastrophic effects from catching coronavirus. I’ve seen this a good bit online, ‘Ah sure it’s just like a bad flu, I’ll be grand...’

But they are no less likely to catch it and, as pointed out, on a spin with mates who are coughing and clearing phlegm, maybe even a bit more likely in some circumstances.

The issue is that, if you do pick it up, someone you pass it to, even in the days before you realise you have it, might have much more serious consequences. Or someone they pass it on to. From the data so far, the mortality rates in the elderly (70+, and even more so from 80+) are exponentially higher than the young fit population.

The idea is to minimise the spread in the general population to protect the more vulnerable members. So a group spin is pretty minor in the great scheme of things, but a lot of minor changes might help curtail the spread.

[preach/]

daragh_

Good advice - especially for those of us with elderly parents.

1bryan

dakar wrote: »

The issue is that, if you do pick it up, someone you pass it to, even in the days before you realise you have it, might have much more serious consequences. Or someone they pass it on to. From the data so far, the mortality rates in the elderly (70+, and even more so from 80+) are exponentially higher than the young fit population.

[preach/]

scaremongering much?

your statement needs to be qualified. Exponentially higher, but exponentially higher than very small numbers. And, the vast majority with pre-existing, underlying conditions (respiratory, diabetes, and particularly dangerous for smokers).

Its right to take precautions, and your comment about needing to be careful about passing it on to older folks, is spot on. But lets not get carried away. This isn't going to wipe out everyone over 70.

dakar

1bryan wrote: »

scaremongering much?

your statement needs to be qualified. Exponentially higher, but exponentially higher than very small numbers. And, the vast majority with pre-existing, underlying conditions (respiratory, diabetes, and particularly dangerous for smokers).

Its right to take precautions, and your comment about needing to be careful about passing it on to older folks, is spot on. But lets not get carried away. This isn't going to wipe out everyone over 70.

CCDC figures, the most reliable ones I’ve seen so far, as they have the biggest sample size.

No, not everyone over 70, or 80, but 8% and 14.8% are pretty high figures. And ok, the sample size is relatively small (for now) but 1:500 mortality rate for the 20-49 age group vs 1:7 for the 80+ group is an exponential difference.

You’re correct about co-morbidity too, the figures are there for those.

Being careful about passing it on to older folks means being careful about passing it on full stop. You might not be worried about an individual in your life, but can you say that about everyone you come in contact with?

I have no interest in scaremongering, but a series of small changes can make a big difference.

1bryan

dakar wrote: »

CCDC figures, the most reliable ones I’ve seen so far, as they have the biggest sample size.

No, not everyone over 70, or 80, but 8% and 14.8% are pretty high figures. And ok, the sample size is relatively small (for now) but 1:500 mortality rate for the 20-49 age group vs 1:7 for the 80+ group is an exponential difference.

You’re correct about co-morbidity too, the figures are there for those.

Being careful about passing it on to older folks means being careful about passing it on full stop. You might not be worried about an individual in your life, but can you say that about everyone you come in contact with?

I have no interest in scaremongering, but a series of small changes can make a big difference.

Where do you draw the line? Based on the figures above, it's far less impactful across different age demographics than the common flu (albeit incorporating more than 1 strain - again, sourcing info from the CDC), yet we don't cancel club rides for that?

dakar

1bryan wrote: »

Where do you draw the line? Based on the figures above, it's far less impactful across different age demographics than the common flu (albeit incorporating more than 1 strain - again, sourcing info from the CDC), yet we don't cancel club rides for that?

And btw, your snide, personal attack on me didn't go unnoticed.

Apologies, that genuinely wasn’t intended to be personal. I’ll depersonalise it, one may not be worried about the direct impact on one’s immediate circle.

And I draw the line at minor changes that I can make to my life that have minimal impact on my life, but might have a huge impact on someone else’s. As I would if I had the flu.

And with that, I’ll withdraw gracefully. Have a good day.

ednwireland

if theres a lot of cases appearing over the next few weeks i can see a lot of events beemn cancelled until the summer.

CramCycle

I am more concerned about the affect on local races. Selfish as I am.

harringtonp

Could end up with an end of season top heavy program. Which may not necessarily be a bad thing...

Mugser

harringtonp wrote: »

Could end up with an end of season top heavy program. Which may not necessarily be a bad thing...

Definitely a glass half-full view :rolleyes::rolleyes:

I must confess to having doubts about the 312.

CramCycle

harringtonp wrote: »

Could end up with an end of season top heavy program. Which may not necessarily be a bad thing...

I don't see it, people are on holidays, back to school, or kids are starting back. I imagine that cancelled races will struggle to get back on the calendar. I mean I'd love it but I don't see it.

a148pro

I foolishly thought this would be a thread about how much cycling we could do when the country shut down!

CramCycle

a148pro wrote: »

I foolishly thought this would be a thread about how much cycling we could do when the country shut down!

It could be, if your single. If work closes down I would plan to just f off up the hills every day but now that there are mini people.in my house I wouldn't be let. Not sure why though.

a148pro

CramCycle wrote: »

It could be, if your single. If work closes down I would plan to just f off up the hills every day but now that there are mini people.in my house I wouldn't be let. Not sure why though.

I find the presence of the mini people makes the need to hit the hills all the stronger

dahat

As I work for a company that supplies various PPE items to factories there is real panic & short supply of essential items starting to happen. If workplaces don't shut due to the virus the lack of various PPE will cause them to shut temporarily.

magicbastarder

i could probably take a rough guess as to where a hell of a lot of that PPE is made.

dahat

magicbastarder wrote: »

i could probably take a rough guess as to where a hell of a lot of that PPE is made.

Yep & everyone is buying up stocks last few weeks. The impact will be felt for 2/3 years as all the Chinese stock piles are empty, add in the slow boat when manufacturing starts it isn't a good outlook.

CramCycle

dahat wrote: »

Yep & everyone is buying up stocks last few weeks. The impact will be felt for 2/3 years as all the Chinese stock piles are empty, add in the slow boat when manufacturing starts it isn't a good outlook.

I imagine you will see the likes of the stripped out passenger planes they have developing for cargo will fill the interim. Everything from there will rocket in price but not hugely. to fill the interim gap. It will eiter buffer out the next crash so it will start earlier but not be anywhere near as bad as the last one or the majority of us will be economically f*****.

I am of course talking out of my arse but depending on control measures and vaccine development (remember, it may not be possible, effective etc. so they may end up with medication to treat the symptoms rather than a vaccine). I have seen some of the stripped out planes they are developing for cargo, different cost, profile and fuel efficiency to the current style used by couriers. Could be a very effective interim measure. Costs will multiply for everything from that region, specifically based on weight and size, rather than on ease of production and demand which will be odd.

On a more important note, will the Dublin Wheelers open race go ahead next week?

dahat

CramCycle wrote: »

I imagine you will see the likes of the stripped out passenger planes they have developing for cargo will fill the interim. Everything from there will rocket in price but not hugely. to fill the interim gap. It will eiter buffer out the next crash so it will start earlier but not be anywhere near as bad as the last one or the majority of us will be economically f*****.

I am of course talking out of my arse but depending on control measures and vaccine development (remember, it may not be possible, effective etc. so they may end up with medication to treat the symptoms rather than a vaccine). I have seen some of the stripped out planes they are developing for cargo, different cost, profile and fuel efficiency to the current style used by couriers. Could be a very effective interim measure. Costs will multiply for everything from that region, specifically based on weight and size, rather than on ease of production and demand which will be odd.

On a more important note, will the Dublin Wheelers open race go ahead next week?

Yes, you can definitely see costs increasing especially with the expected production ramps once China sees a drop off in infections.

Are multi Nationals in Ireland willing to absorb the cost of airfreights from China? Who gets them first? Many questions to be asked with very few answers at the minute.

dahat

CramCycle wrote: »

On a more important note, will the Dublin Wheelers open race go ahead next week?

Will they supply face masks with race numbers on them?

CramCycle

dahat wrote: »

Will they supply face masks with race numbers on them?

I eagerly await this as a race tactic, have a face cover and cough repeatedly. Like the guy who turned upto an A4 race last year with a 2 foot long pump hanging out of his jersey pocket and then TT'd to victory. Genius.

CramCycle

dahat wrote: »

Yes, you can definitely see costs increasing especially with the expected production ramps once China sees a drop off in infections.

Are multi Nationals in Ireland willing to absorb the cost of airfreights from China? Who gets them first? Many questions to be asked with very few answers at the minute.

They won't absorb the cost, the client will. Either it can be done cheaper in Europe or we absorb the cost in our pocket. At that point people either decide they don't want those items or they do. It also depends on how long it goes on, if it is a short term loss, they may take the hit but buy in less than demand asks for to insure that they are not left with overpriced stock when things return to normal.

buffalo

Massive amount of car traffic backed up on the quays this morning. I was wondering whether it was due to lack of parking in the Phoenix Park with the visit of some royals, then I got to thinking that it's possibly a load of people who've stopped taking public transport due to fears of infection.

I know of one lad who's been driving in from Kildare for the last few weeks where he would've got the train before, because he has a newborn at home and is paranoid about infection.

harringtonp

The fear, paranoia and lack or rational thinking around Covid-19 is far more dangerous than the thing itself. Have a read of

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/haas-im-calm-but-uae-coronavirus-quarantine-is-leading-to-pandemonium/

and

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/coronavirus-latest-cofidis-sports-director-damiani-expresses-frustration-at-continued-uae-hotel-lockdown/

My fear in going anywhere would not the thing itself but the potential for huge delays travelling and room arrest

CramCycle

Very much so, alot of DB buses are way down on my commute. Normally bus stops would be overflowing and buses not fit to take more but hasn't been that way for the last few days. Car traffic has also increased as well.

silverharp

Ive always been a fair weather commuter cyclist as I have a good Dart and commuter train connection , average during the winter might be cycle 3 times and train 2 per week. From this week im going to aim for 100% cycling (25km per day).

odyssey06

CramCycle wrote: »

Very much so, alot of DB buses are way down on my commute. Normally bus stops would be overflowing and buses not fit to take more but hasn't been that way for the last few days. Car traffic has also increased as well.

Was that just today because the 8000 staff in Google were told to WFH?

Chips Lovell

A friend's employer told all staff not to take public transport until further notice.

CramCycle

odyssey06 wrote: »

Was that just today because the 8000 staff in Google were told to WFH?

Since last week. Friday was the first obvious day

Kaisr Sose

harringtonp wrote: »

The fear, paranoia and lack or rational thinking around Covid-19 is far more dangerous than the thing itself.

So true...

The Corona Virus thread is a testament to that...

Quote: lainey_d_123
I mean, not really. Anyone who uses public transport is going to be sitting very close to other people for over 15 minutes. They say you need to be 6 feet away from an infected person to be safe. There must have been at least 12 other people within 6 feet of me on the bus this morning. Also had a medical appointment, stuck in a crowded waiting room with people coughing and spluttering, well within 6 feet of me.

Reply:

WTF... .there is ONE, ONE confirmed case, who do you think you're catching it off if you travel today?

magicbastarder

i see very little hysteria; the above post is just one from boards, the vast majority of people i've talked to are being sensible enough.

and yes, some people are afraid, as well they might be - everyone i know who is afraid is not afraid for themselves, but for friends or relatives who might have lung issues, etc.

Thelonious Monk

When the Spanish Flu hit Dublin in 1918 bicycle sales went through the roof, as people feared public transport. "Very few of the people who've had influenza are regular cyclists."

magicbastarder

Me to lady in chemist: “What gets rid of coronavirus?”
Lady: "Ammonia cleaner."
Me: "Oh sorry, I thought you were the pharmacist.”

at1withmyself

Was buying parts at the weekend from the German shops and had to go through 4 of them to find stock of a brake caliper, most saying not in stock for a few weeks. I'd imagine stocks will start to get harder to find as factories in the east stay closed for another while.

According to Cyclingnews Mitchelton-Scott have pulled their mens and womens teams from all races until March 22nd at least and Jumbo Visma have withdrawn from the Italian races.

EDIT:

https://twitter.com/MitcheltonSCOTT/status/1235224941391425538

neris

Deleted User wrote: »

According to Cyclingnews Mitchelton-Scott have pulled their mens and womens teams from all races until March 22nd at least and Jumbo Visma have withdrawn from the Italian races.

EDIT:

https://twitter.com/MitcheltonSCOTT/status/1235224941391425538

2 or 3 more teams pull out and they might aswell just scrap the races