Feb 29th - Snowfall/Wintry Conditions

Kermit.de.frog

During Sunday afternoon and evening rain will sweep across the country from the west turning to snow as it encounters cold embedded air across Connaught, Ulster and north Leinster. There is broad agreement across all the models regarding risk.

The snow across north Leinster and south Connaught is likely to be short lived and turn back to rain reasonably quickly but across Ulster and north Connaught some disruptive falls should be expected. Any where between 5 and 15 cms to low levels there.

This forecast can still change to bring more of the country in to the disruptive criteria. For now it's the safest bet on north Connaught and Ulster having the disruptive weather.

Cold start to Sunday evening but turning milder from the south. Remaining very cold through the night across north Connaught and Ulster.

Flood risk

25 - 35mm of rain expected overnight - together with melting snow and a full water table bringing risk of flooding particularly in the midlands and west and around Shannon river basins in particular.

pauldry

I'll buy the ski gear tomorrow...and bread

And that snow will have the longevity of a fart in the wind, unless it meets the top 100m of Errigal or Croagh Patrick. Strictly in isolation.

sideswipe

Ulster says snow.

There’ll be a poster along in due course to say it’s snowing somewhere in Ulster, exact location unknown:)

Kermit.de.frog

I have to repeat though the exact positioning of this is not certain just yet and everything depends on the track.

Some models have it tracking a bit further south across the country which would bring a higher risk for other areas. So there is a bit of rope to work with with this.



Height of 0c isotherm (in meters)

pauldry

Weather does look indeed quite weathery next week

Kermit.de.frog

Hirlam, an important model for us, kicking the action off further south












Hirlam normally reasonably good at this range vs other lower resolution models.

Graces7

Ready for anything out here. Extra stocks came in this week...All I need to do is bring in more turf from the North Face... and make sure the shovel is in the house in case I have to dig the cats in/out.

Kermit.de.frog

ICON now goes south route as well. Change of title may be coming.

Kermit.de.frog

Exciting eh?

On the edge.

I love it.

Meteorite58

ECM and ICON quite similar now, heavy snow falls the further North and both showing considerable amount of snow lying early morning. Tough driving conditions Sunday night into Monday morning in the Northern half of the country











Must be noted a lot of rainfall also Sunday into Monday, and what falls frozen melts so topping up the totals big time.

nacho libre

Just waiting for Gaoth Laidir to come along and downplay the snow risk:D

It does look promising though with some of the usually more sober short term models on board. It would be great to look out the window and see the ground covered in white rather than being rain soaked for a change!

Kermit.de.frog

...

YanSno

Don't forget the onshore winds along the East Coast where temps will be around 4-6c. Similar setup like last year, further inland could be a different story but for now i don't see anything more than sleet for the Dublin surrounding regions.

Gaoth Laidir

Tasty!

Donegal Storm

Been a while since we had a good frontal snow event, had one here in February 2011 that dumped 5-10cm in just a couple of hours. Was a horrible slushy mess the next day but I'd still take that over another day of rain

jArgHA

Can everyone in Cork start rowing at the coast please, we can turn Ireland upside down for a few days.

Gaoth Laidir

It does look like snow is likely for a narrow window of a couple of hours late tomorrow night alright. Soundings are just about right. Even the Arpege is on board, and it usually has a warm bias. Below is for somewhere in Leitrim at midnight, the time of the precip chart shown. Given the warm but still sub-zero saturated uppers, thickness values will be much higher (541 dam in that sounding) than normally associated with snow. This is why a sounding tells a lot more information than any map can.

Graces7

Heyl you are serious? Thought you were joking ,,,WOW!But we tend to miss out out here.. hope springs eternal!

Gonzo

looks like rain for much of Dublin and Meath, hope I'm wrong, would love to see some snow from this on Monday morning, but that warm sector brings a major and sudden increase in temperatures. Looks decent for the northern 40% of the country. Hopefully the models will shift the cold further south on later runs.

Gonzo

Arpege has a brief moment of snow over Dublin and Meath between 1 and 2am, probably no more than 20 to 30 minutes, then a quick transition to rain. Ulster and Donegal could see several hours of snow before turning to rain eventually.



Hirlam offers a better chance of seeing proper snow over Meath and Dublin, several hours of it and possibly some very heavy falls in places before turning to rain.

starts off as rain at 2am


Widespread heavy snow around 4am between Dublin and the midlands


Some very heavy snow around 5am Sunday in Meath but the mild air not far behind turning everything back to rain.



Snow turning to rain by 6am


Fingers crossed the Hirlam is correct and brings the mild air in slower. If this was to upgrade with a longer transition period to rain there could be tricky driving conditions early Monday morning.

GFS not really going for it, keeping the snow further north mainly across NI and the north-west.



Euro 4 for what it's worth is similiar to the Arpege

Meteorite58

Even though milder mid level air will have increased Monday morning there could be enough snow lying to last into the morning making for difficult conditions with the increasing winds form the LP set to track off the N coasts.

pad199207

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Longford, Louth, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Clare and Tipperary

Rain on Sunday night into Monday morning will lead to accumulations of between 20 to 25mm quite widely, with higher totals possible in upland areas.
The rain is likely to be preceded by a period of snow in parts of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster, before turning to rain later in the night.
As the ground is saturated at the moment and river levels are elevated the combined effect of rainfall and snow melt may lead to some localised surface and river flooding.

Valid: 20:00 Sunday 23/02/2020 to 08:00 Monday 24/02/2020

Issued: 12:00 Saturday 22/02/2020

Gonzo

Arpege latest update keeps the cold for slightly longer and moves the snow risk further south by about 40 miles. Still a snow to rain event.



Hirlam moves it futher south too with several hours of potentially heavy sleet/snow across much of the country including Dublin, Wicklow, Meath, Kildare, midlands before turning back to rain Monday morning. Could be a messy Monday morning cummute for many if this pans out.



For NI this looks like a proper snow event with snow falling well into Monday morning and finally turning to rain as it clears during the afternoon. Could all fall as snow in parts of the north, especially over high ground.



Icon is similar to the earlier runs, keeping the snow more towards the far north of Leinster, Ulster and the north-west.



GFS is similar, keeping it mostly to the north.


fingers crossed the Hirlam proves most accurate.

Gonzo

Hirlam also keeps it colder for longer.

Temperatures not much above freezing at 7am.



very mild by lunchtime with a huge temperature contrast, up to 12C in the south and barely above freezing in the north.

pauldry

For me this looks a likely scenario. Lying snow in the North Monday morning. Could be school closures in the Northwest.

Thank God the DW is off work.

Meteorite58

So latest charts across the different models showing the LP frontal system arrive much earlier than previous runs and the Low center not as deep either, and a bit slower moving also with probably more precipitation falling . Winds also not as strong now for Monday, more like gusting 80 to 90km/h on the coasts and around 70 to 80 km/h overland . Big change really in such a short space of time.

Gaoth Laidir

A massive U-turn in the UKMO Fax forecast for 12Z on Monday. Today's 12Z forecast has the low 24 hPa higher then than the 00Z forecast had it. Amazing change in thinking just 12 hours apart.

12Z forecast.



00Z forecast.

Gonzo

ECM brings a period of snow to much of the country tomorrow night as well.





no doubt this would have alot of rain also, and combined with a sleet and snow mix flooding is once again possible.

Here is a sneaky peak at what the ECM is showing for next Thursday. Major pinch of salt.

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Kermit > Gaoth Laidir :cool:

Don't worry Kermit, if it snows you'll get the standard 246 thanks for starting the thread.

Kermit.de.frog

I'm only joking :pac:

Looks good for northern counties. Snow turning to rain for most overnight tomorrow and just rain further south in south Leinster and Munster. Wouldn't be surprised if it was snow throughout in some northern counties.

Looking forward to the reports even though it's unlikely I will see snow myself which sums the winter up for me really.

Kermit.de.frog

Dare I say a slight upgrade on the latest ICON



Can't say tomorrow night won't be entertaining!

nacho libre

So it seems like Coleraine will be the place to be on Monday Morning!

Scotland will get plastered too by the looks of things.

Kermit.de.frog

You look in a bit of a sweet spot for this Nacho

km79

nacho libre wrote: »

So it seems like Coleraine will be the place to be on Monday Morning!

Scotland will get plastered too by the looks of things.

Coleraine is in ULSTER so we are sorted
Should have loads of photos

Kermit.de.frog

Ulster may not be the best of the best though this time All depends of the exact trajectory of these fronts. The real good spots could be around the border counties and across to Mayo and Galway

redsteveireland

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Dare I say a slight upgrade on the latest ICON

Can't say tomorrow night won't be entertaining!

Looks like I'm just on the wrong side of the knife edge this time. More flooding looks likely as things are pretty poor around Galway already.

Kermit.de.frog

redsteveireland wrote: »

Looks like I'm just on the wrong side of the knife edge this time. More flooding looks likely as things are pretty poor around Galway already.

Better placed than us Dubs - we have an onshore breeze which will probably do it for us. Expecting a real mess of rain, sleet and a few flakes.

This one of those setups where I see rain and Gonzo, for example, a little inland has snow.

ninebeanrows

Expecting this low to keep trending south. Could stay dry in Coleraine

mirrorwall14

Will the onshore breeze affect far inland? Like Meath/Dublin coasts obviously but what about Kildare and outer commuter belt to Dublin west. Assuming you are north enough to be within the sweet spot!

pad199207

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Will the onshore breeze affect far inland? Like Meath/Dublin coasts obviously but what about Kildare and outer commuter belt to Dublin west. Assuming you are north enough to be within the sweet spot!

Usually in these situations it’s Newbridge/The Curragh and westwards that normally see the white gold

Kermit.de.frog

Shelter from the on shore breeze won't be enough on this occasion though with much milder air making in roads anyway.

I think Kildare, Meath will get snow but it's a question of how how long it lasts.

kittyn

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Better placed than us Dubs - we have an onshore breeze which will probably do it for us. Expecting a real mess of rain, sleet and a few flakes.

This one of those setups where I see rain and Gonzo, for example, a little inland has snow.

It looks good for me ...... I’m hoping anyway

uck51js9zml2yt

Will I be able to get out of my house in North Kerry with all this snow in the Midlands?





I'm sorry, I just had to ask :;
I'll probably see it in the Reeks anyway. The last lot hasn't melted yet.

Snow Garden

Bring it on. I love going for a night-time walk in falling snow.

Oscar Bravo

Knock Airport TAF has Sleet to start off with tomorrow night turning to Snow between 10pm and midnight.

Gaoth Laidir

This evening's soundings look epic for much of the midlands, west and north for a narrow window tomorrow night. All profiles are showing a deep saturated layer just below zero, which is the optimum profile for heavy snowfall. The only thing is it will quickly turn to heavy rain once the window passes.

The eastern coastal counties are stuck with that warm marine layer, which should make it cold rain overall. But watch stations such as Mullingar and Ballyhaise this time tomorrow. Should be interesting.

Oneiric 3

What ever about snow, more moderately high accumulations look likely over much of the country between now and Monday morning. As RedSteve said, won't help with any flooding problems.

Neddyusa

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

What ever about snow, more moderately high accumulations look likely over much of the country between now and Monday morning. As RedSteve said, won't help with any flooding problems.

Yep "flooding" rather than snow should be the emphasis of this OP

Oscar Bravo

Here comes the rain again....

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Clare and Tipperary

UPDATE:
A spell of rain tonight into Monday morning will lead to accumulations of between 20 to 25mm, with higher totals possible in upland areas. 
The rain is likely to be preceded by a period of sleet and snow in parts of Connacht, Ulster and north Leinster, before turning to rain later in the night. 
As the ground is saturated at the moment and river levels are elevated the combined effect of rainfall and snow melt may lead to some localised surface and river flooding.

Valid: 20:00 Sunday 23/02/2020 to 08:00 Monday 24/02/2020

Issued: 09:12 Sunday 23/02/2020

Oneiric 3

3am forecast probability chart for 2cm or more of snow. Highest in the NW.



Reporters to look out for tonight: Pangea, Nacho, Donegal Storm, Goldfinch, Pauldry. OwenC.