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Feb 29th - Snowfall/Wintry Conditions
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22-02-2020 12:00am#1
During Sunday afternoon and evening rain will sweep across the country from the west turning to snow as it encounters cold embedded air across Connaught, Ulster and north Leinster. There is broad agreement across all the models regarding risk.
The snow across north Leinster and south Connaught is likely to be short lived and turn back to rain reasonably quickly but across Ulster and north Connaught some disruptive falls should be expected. Any where between 5 and 15 cms to low levels there.
This forecast can still change to bring more of the country in to the disruptive criteria. For now it's the safest bet on north Connaught and Ulster having the disruptive weather.
Cold start to Sunday evening but turning milder from the south. Remaining very cold through the night across north Connaught and Ulster.
Flood risk
25 - 35mm of rain expected overnight - together with melting snow and a full water table bringing risk of flooding particularly in the midlands and west and around Shannon river basins in particular.21
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I have to repeat though the exact positioning of this is not certain just yet and everything depends on the track.
Some models have it tracking a bit further south across the country which would bring a higher risk for other areas. So there is a bit of rope to work with with this.
Height of 0c isotherm (in meters)
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ECM and ICON quite similar now, heavy snow falls the further North and both showing considerable amount of snow lying early morning. Tough driving conditions Sunday night into Monday morning in the Northern half of the country
Must be noted a lot of rainfall also Sunday into Monday, and what falls frozen melts so topping up the totals big time.
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It does look like snow is likely for a narrow window of a couple of hours late tomorrow night alright. Soundings are just about right. Even the Arpege is on board, and it usually has a warm bias. Below is for somewhere in Leitrim at midnight, the time of the precip chart shown. Given the warm but still sub-zero saturated uppers, thickness values will be much higher (541 dam in that sounding) than normally associated with snow. This is why a sounding tells a lot more information than any map can.
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Arpege has a brief moment of snow over Dublin and Meath between 1 and 2am, probably no more than 20 to 30 minutes, then a quick transition to rain. Ulster and Donegal could see several hours of snow before turning to rain eventually.
Hirlam offers a better chance of seeing proper snow over Meath and Dublin, several hours of it and possibly some very heavy falls in places before turning to rain.
starts off as rain at 2am
Widespread heavy snow around 4am between Dublin and the midlands
Some very heavy snow around 5am Sunday in Meath but the mild air not far behind turning everything back to rain.
Snow turning to rain by 6am
Fingers crossed the Hirlam is correct and brings the mild air in slower. If this was to upgrade with a longer transition period to rain there could be tricky driving conditions early Monday morning.
GFS not really going for it, keeping the snow further north mainly across NI and the north-west.
Euro 4 for what it's worth is similiar to the Arpege
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Even though milder mid level air will have increased Monday morning there could be enough snow lying to last into the morning making for difficult conditions with the increasing winds form the LP set to track off the N coasts.
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Arpege latest update keeps the cold for slightly longer and moves the snow risk further south by about 40 miles. Still a snow to rain event.
Hirlam moves it futher south too with several hours of potentially heavy sleet/snow across much of the country including Dublin, Wicklow, Meath, Kildare, midlands before turning back to rain Monday morning. Could be a messy Monday morning cummute for many if this pans out.
For NI this looks like a proper snow event with snow falling well into Monday morning and finally turning to rain as it clears during the afternoon. Could all fall as snow in parts of the north, especially over high ground.
Icon is similar to the earlier runs, keeping the snow more towards the far north of Leinster, Ulster and the north-west.
GFS is similar, keeping it mostly to the north.
fingers crossed the Hirlam proves most accurate.0 -
Hirlam also keeps it colder for longer.
Temperatures not much above freezing at 7am.
very mild by lunchtime with a huge temperature contrast, up to 12C in the south and barely above freezing in the north.
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So latest charts across the different models showing the LP frontal system arrive much earlier than previous runs and the Low center not as deep either, and a bit slower moving also with probably more precipitation falling . Winds also not as strong now for Monday, more like gusting 80 to 90km/h on the coasts and around 70 to 80 km/h overland . Big change really in such a short space of time.
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ECM brings a period of snow to much of the country tomorrow night as well.
no doubt this would have alot of rain also, and combined with a sleet and snow mix flooding is once again possible.
Here is a sneaky peak at what the ECM is showing for next Thursday. Major pinch of salt.
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I'm only joking :pac:
Looks good for northern counties. Snow turning to rain for most overnight tomorrow and just rain further south in south Leinster and Munster. Wouldn't be surprised if it was snow throughout in some northern counties.
Looking forward to the reports even though it's unlikely I will see snow myself which sums the winter up for me really.
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