GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Kermit.de.frog

The exit poll is out in 90 minutes for the Irish Times and RTE.

Should be fairly accurate of the vote going on previous exit polls.

A pure guessing game before transfers are taken into account, I wouldn't put too much stock in it this time.

TheValeyard

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A pure guessing game before transfers are taken into account, I wouldn't put too much stock in it this time.

True..


But will still be interesting read I'd say

Kermit.de.frog

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A pure guessing game before transfers are taken into account, I wouldn't put too much stock in it this time.

Yes it won't be that nuanced.

What I am looking at is whether it will be even possible to form a government. This should be easier to gauge from the exit poll.

We could be going back to the polls depending on the lay of the land.

Hurrache

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Should be fairly accurate of the vote going on previous exit polls.

Last few were referenda with either a yes or no answer, the tally men are where the action is at.

Itssoeasy

Just so I'm clear the exit poll is who people gave their first preference to ? As others say it doesn't get into the weeds of transfers so yes it's a good starting point but you'd swear it was a full count of every constituency in the country which it isn't.

rob316

It generally fairly accurate

AllForIt

Deleted User wrote: »

A pure guessing game before transfers are taken into account, I wouldn't put too much stock in it this time.

Can they not take second pref into account as well? I read that after the second pref there isn't much effect but that might not be right. I'd imagine they do in tight constituencies.

dxhound2005

It took 63 days of negotiations to form the last government. Even if SF get all 42 elected there is no guarantee that there won't be another election. The poll will be interesting, but probably useless as a guide to what will happen.

AllForIt

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It took 63 days of negotiations to form the last government. Even if SF get all 42 elected there is no guarantee that there won't be another election. The poll will be interesting, but probably useless as a guide to what will happen.

One of the reasons I don't believe in PR. But lets not go down that rabbit hole.

McMurphy

Deleted User wrote: »

A pure guessing game before transfers are taken into account, I wouldn't put too much stock in it this time.

True enough, but if it predicts a significant amount of seats for the shinners - perhaps bypassing FG in numbers, I will take enormous pleasure in watching the squirming and contortions that will be going on, on this site for the next 48hrs.:pac:

dxhound2005

McMurphy wrote: »

True enough, but if it predicts a significant amount of seats for the shinners - perhaps bypassing FG in numbers, I will take enormous pleasure in watching the squirming and contortions that will be going on, on this site for the next 48hrs.:pac:

I look forward to two years of no government, while they insist on getting their way.

Spanish Eyes

Is every constituency polling station used for the exit poll? Huge logistical exercise if so, therefore I doubt it. I've never been asked on exiting ever.

Anyway, I suppose everyone is waiting to see if SF have most first prefs and who comes next. It's an indicator alright, but nothing like yes/no or FPTP in Britain recently.

We are so election/result mad in this country it is just something to start off with and it will do for now.

McMurphy

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Is every constituency polling station used for the exit poll? Huge logistical exercise if so, therefore I doubt it. I've never been asked on exiting ever.

Anyway, I suppose everyone is waiting to see if SF have most first prefs and who comes next. It's an indicator alright, but nothing like yes/no or FPTP in Britain recently.

We are so election/result mad in this country it is just something to start off with and it will do for now.

I got a text tonight from UCD with a link to partake in their exit poll.

Itssoeasy

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Is every constituency polling station used for the exit poll? Huge logistical exercise if so, therefore I doubt it. I've never been asked on exiting ever.

Anyway, I suppose everyone is waiting to see if SF have most first prefs and who comes next. It's an indicator alright, but nothing like yes/no or FPTP in Britain recently.

We are so election/result mad in this country it is just something to start off with and it will do for now.

I've never even seen anyone being asked and I don't know what the sample size and how widespread it is now that I think of it. You'd assume it's a good enough spread of the contry but I doubt it's in every polling place in the country.

This is it

5000 give or take apparently

Hamsterchops

McMurphy wrote: »

True enough, but if it predicts a significant amount of seats for the shinners - perhaps bypassing FG in numbers, I will take enormous pleasure in watching the squirming and contortions that will be going on, on this site for the next 48hrs.:pac:

Indeed you might, but disgusting for those of us who are non shinners .....

SF really are far too subversive to consider for most Irish people, specially for those of us who know and remember what they really stand for.

Quite disgusting.

L1011

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Is every constituency polling station used for the exit poll? Huge logistical exercise if so, therefore I doubt it. I've never been asked on exiting ever.

Anyway, I suppose everyone is waiting to see if SF have most first prefs and who comes next. It's an indicator alright, but nothing like yes/no or FPTP in Britain recently.

We are so election/result mad in this country it is just something to start off with and it will do for now.

No. Its usually not even one station per constituency.

Odhinn

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Indeed you might, but disgusting for those of us who are non shinners .....

SF really are far too subversive to consider for most Irish people, specially for those of us who know and remember what they really stand for.

Quite disgusting.

What would this be?

olestoepoke

If a government cannot be formed and we do have to go back to the polls, when would that be and could Sinn Fein increase the number of candidates they put forward?

Itssoeasy

L1011 wrote: »

No. Its usually not even one station per constituency.

So why is there so much weight put into it then ?

Millionaire only not

Sf have very poor candidates in general , it’s terrible if that sub standard stuff is elected just because of a tide coming in or going out which ever it is !
Sf hadn’t there homework done in time , they never expected this heave against the main parties !

Itssoeasy

olestoepoke wrote: »

If a government cannot be formed and we do have to go back to the polls, when would that be and could Sinn Fein increase the number of candidates they put forward?

Well it's February now and it took a while the last time and that was only because of a confidence and supply agreement. If there hadn't been that then we'd have had another election in 2016. So I don't know when it would be and if a new election is called then Sinn Fein and any other party can select however many number of candidates they put forward.

Kermit.de.frog

Odhinn wrote: »

What would this be?

Murder, terrorism, subversion, vigilantism...

Political wing of the IRA.

That's not something that goes away. They should condemn the 40 year terror campaign in the north.

That's why most Irish people want nothing to do with them.

TheMilkyPirate

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So why is there so much weight put into it then ?

Because they're usually accurate enough

Itssoeasy

Millionaire only not wrote: »

Sf have very poor candidates in general , it’s terrible if that sub standard stuff is elected just because of a tide coming in or going out which ever it is !
Sf hadn’t there homework done in time , they never expected this heave against the main parties !

Well Sinn Fein didn't run as many candidates because they were going on the European and local elections which give a snapshot of the parties position.

Whelo79

Millionaire only not wrote: »

Sf have very poor candidates in general , it’s terrible if that sub standard stuff is elected just because of a tide coming in or going out which ever it is !
Sf hadn’t there homework done in time , they never expected this heave against the main parties !

Who are the good candidates in FF and FG?

L1011

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So why is there so much weight put into it then ?

Because it has, last May's Euros aside, usually been quite accurate.

dxhound2005

This is it wrote: »

5000 give or take apparently

It was a bit less in 2016. Plenty of information on the methodology here.

https://static.rasset.ie/documents/news/rte-exit-poll-report.pdf

Whelo79

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's not something that goes away

It obviously must go away, there must be some time point in your mind where the actions of war are forgiven/forgotten, because you don't hold the same feelings towards FF/FG

Capra

Millionaire only not wrote: »

Sf have very poor candidates in general , it’s terrible if that sub standard stuff is elected just because of a tide coming in or going out which ever it is !
Sf hadn’t there homework done in time , they never expected this heave against the main parties !

Indeed. I kind of want Ireland to go fully left wing, if only to realise the total disaster that it is. Similar to how Britain in the 1970s went full socialist, realised it was idiotic and haven't looked back ever since. However when I went to the booth the Sinn Fein candidate had his occupation listed as "writer". To me that's another word for unemployed. Pathetic.

L1011

Capra wrote: »

Similar to how Britain in the 1980s went full socialist, realised it was idiotic and haven't looked back ever since.

Britain had a right-wing Government for the entirity of the 1980s.

They then elected a centre-left Government by an absolute landslide in 1997.

Millionaire only not

Whelo79 wrote: »

Who are the good candidates in FF and FG?

What Ud call Sinead Ryan or paddy Hoolihan even though he’s out already fit candidates to run the country !
No thks I’ll take the devil we know any day !
At least the fg/ fg can read and write ! Tbh just looking at the Sinn Fein line up is something like drop outs from school !

votecounts

Capra wrote: »

Indeed. I kind of want Ireland to go fully left wing, if only to realise the total disaster that it is. Similar to how Britain in the 1980s went full socialist, realised it was idiotic and haven't looked back ever since. However when I went to the booth the Sinn Fein candidate had his occupation listed as "writer". To me that's another word for unemployed. Pathetic.

Who new that Margaret Thatcher was a Socialist, learn new things every day:)

Odhinn

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Murder, terrorism, subversion, vigilantism...

Political wing of the IRA.

That's not something that goes away. They should condemn the 40 year terror campaign in the north.

That's why most Irish people want nothing to do with them.

#


But the armed struggle was unfortunately entirely nessecary.

namloc1980

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So why is there so much weight put into it then ?

It's usually pretty accurate and there's a massive amount of historic data on transfers that seasoned political heads can make a pretty good prediction of the final outcome based on the exit poll. Not perfect of course but a very good indicator.

Capra

L1011 wrote: »

Britain had a right-wing Government for the entirity of the 1980s.

They then elected a centre-left Government by an absolute landslide in 1997.

Typo. Meant 1970s.

Skylinehead

Can we keep this to discussing the exit poll, and not the millionth thread on SF?

Hamsterchops

Whelo79 wrote: »

It obviously must go away, there must be some time point in your mind where the actions of war are forgiven/forgotten, because you don't hold the same feelings towards FF/FG

We remember what the PIRA/Sinn Fein did, it's well within living memory, every bombing, every murder, every kidnapping, every kneecapping, every bank job, every post office robbery, never condemned by Sinn Fein, never followed up by Sinn Fein either, many of whom were in or connected to the PIRA.

So why would we forgive them or vote for them, madness.

1wizards sleeve

Is it only me. Or are the Irish left SF and the likes. V aggressive in their opinions. Seem to think their opinions and views are always right . And it's almost a crime to vote any different. Quiet similar to the anti Brexit voters .and the democrats and media in the USA.

KevIRL

Poll will show even higher than expected support for SF. Also that SF transfers will carry a number of left and hard left candidates from other parties over the line.

Sigh.

ninebeanrows

think there will be a silent fg vote

guessing ff 27 fg 25 sf 20

Hamsterchops

Odhinn wrote: »

But the armed struggle was unfortunately entirely nessecary.

NO IT WAS NOT
Seamus Mallon.

olestoepoke

Hamsterchops wrote: »

We remember what the PIRA/Sinn Fein did, it's well within living memory, every bombing, every murder, every kidnapping, every kneecapping, every bank job, every post office robbery, never condemned by Sinn Fein, never followed up by Sinn Fein either, many of whom were in or connected to the PIRA.

So why would we forgive them or vote for them, madness.

It was a war in every sense. They have moved on and you should too.

namloc1980

The 2007, 2011 and 2016 exit polls were pretty much bang on the final outcome with the notable exception that the FF number was underestimated in the exit poll by c.2-3% in 2011 and 2016 relative to the actual outcome. If I recall that difference was put down to shy/embarrassed FF voters in 2011 & 2016 not willing to admit they voted FF to the exit pollsters.

Chiparus

Hamsterchops wrote: »

We remember what the PIRA/Sinn Fein did, it's well within living memory, every bombing, every murder, every kidnapping, every kneecapping, every bank job, every post office robbery, never condemned by Sinn Fein, never followed up by Sinn Fein either, many of whom were in or connected to the PIRA.

So why would we forgive them or vote for them, madness.

Are you in you 70s?

namloc1980

Hamsterchops wrote: »

We remember what the PIRA/Sinn Fein did, it's well within living memory, every bombing, every murder, every kidnapping, every kneecapping, every bank job, every post office robbery, never condemned by Sinn Fein, never followed up by Sinn Fein either, many of whom were in or connected to the PIRA.

So why would we forgive them or vote for them, madness.

FF and FG did nasty stuff back in the day. FF ministers were gun running in the 70s!

ShylockWept

FYI Folks

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/m2Tuz/3/

Hamsterchops

olestoepoke wrote: »

It was a war in every sense. They have moved on and you should too.

It was a Terrorist campaign carried out by the PIRA without he permission of the IRISH people, and most of us will always hate them for that....

The younger generation have no memory of the Troubles, hence their softer approach to SF.

dxhound2005

olestoepoke wrote: »

It was a war in every sense. They have moved on and you should too.

Not in every sense. They did not use suicide bombers.

PopePalpatine

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

think there will be a silent fg vote

guessing ff 27 fg 25 sf 20

Yeah, I'd be of the same opinion, like how there was a "shy Tory" vote last December. On top of that, I'd say all the hype around SF could light a fire under the collective arses of FG's base, and to cap it off I'm sure they'll be transfer-friendly to FF voters.