new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

all about the mane

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Why do the comparisons to flu wind people up so much? A severe flu is the most accurate thing to compare this to in terms of mortality.

Shure flu is way worse. Upwards of 30 times mire killed by the flu than by this measly thing!

Ficheall

fritzelly wrote: »

I had to beat some old woman off to get the last loaf of bread in Tesco - she was rabid

In these days of gender equality, does beating an old woman off mean the same thing as beating an old man off?

Call Me Jimmy

auspicious wrote: »

Even if the inept powers that be don't deem it necessary to cancel the Ireland v Italy match in early March, most Italians I'm sure with already booked flights and Hotels will still arrive for a getaway, unless flight restrictions to/from Italy arise before that.

If they can confirm this many cases after just starting proper testing they are riddled and they've already shown they're going the quote 'extraordinary measures' route. Be surprised if the the whole country isn't in some form of lockdown by then.

1800_Ladladlad

Nijmegen wrote: »

We need to see a report on whether or not putting on a bit of weight will help you survive the effects of the virus, by having some spare pounds to shed. If so, our experience of the beast from the east tells us that Irish people will emerge from quarantine fitter than ever versus this malady.

Im sorted so...more rolls than a baker :cool:

imfml

wakka12 wrote: »

Already letting 1000 people off that cruise without quarantine has become a mistake

Yep - an American passenger who gave an interview while quarantined onboard and I've been following since. Was very defiant against the US evacuation flight, and is currently enjoying the rest of his holiday in Tokyo. I'm surprised at the lack of people telling him he is putting others at risk.

Take a look at Matthew Smith (@mjswhitebread): https://twitter.com/mjswhitebread?s=09

Dave0301

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Why do the comparisons to flu wind people up so much? A severe flu is the most accurate thing to compare this to in terms of mortality.

Flu mortality rate is about 0.1%, whereas we don't know what COVID-19 will end up at. I don't know about you, but if it sticks at about 2% I would prefer it to not become a pandemic and have a regular season like influenza.

This is also before the impact it will have on ICU provision and frontline staff is taken into account give the percentage of critical cases.

Will it wipe out society? No.

Do we want to avoid the ball ache and hassle associated with an additional worldwide virus? Yes.

creditcarder

all about the mane wrote: »

Flu has killed over 10k in the USA alone this season so far

Imo, this is a good point. It's been going on for over two months now and it is about at the flue amount for one country.

wakka12

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-towns-in-lockdown-as-italy-races-to-contain-europes-biggest-outbreak-11941438

The regional governor of Veneto, Luca Zaia, said he had dealt with several natural disasters during his career, including floods and earthquakes, but "this is the absolutely worst problem that Veneto has faced".

fritzelly

Dave0301 wrote: »

Flu mortality rate is about 0.1%

Ahem 0.01%

givyjoe

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Why do the comparisons to flu wind people up so much? A severe flu is the most accurate thing to compare this to in terms of mortality.

Because a) this isn't flu b) if People associate this as just being a flu, they wont take it seriously c) it's not comparable in terms of mortality rates, not even close.

D) flu does not even come remotely close to putting that many/% people into a serious condition.

Call Me Jimmy

wakka12 wrote: »

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-towns-in-lockdown-as-italy-races-to-contain-europes-biggest-outbreak-11941438

Why are all these leaders talking like this?

Before it shows up in their country: We are prepared.

When it shows up: "It is grave" "devil virus" "worst problem we've faced" "extraordinary measures".

Doctor Jimbob

Dave0301 wrote: »

Flu mortality rate is about 0.1%, whereas we don't know what COVID-19 will end up at. I don't know about you, but if it sticks at about 2% I would prefer it to not become a pandemic and have a regular season like influenza.

This is also before the impact it will have on ICU provision and frontline staff is taken into account give the percentage of critical cases.

Will it wipe out society? No.

Do we want to avoid the ball ache and hassle associated with an additional worldwide virus? Yes.

Spanish flu was over 2% mortality. Swine flu in 2019 was higher than the regular seasonal flu as well. We also don't have a clue whether Covid mortality will be anything close to 2% at the moment. It might, but considering the level of asymptomatic or mild cases being reported at the moment I'd say it's reasonable to assume the mortality won't be that high.

It's a serious disease, and we need to keep an eye on it, but the fact that people are getting angry at those comparing it to similarly serious diseases is quite frankly bizarre.

macwal

fritzelly wrote: »

Ahem...

Is that a tickle in the throat you're getting...?

wakka12

fritzelly wrote: »

Ahem 0.01%

No, it is 0.1, nearly 0.2% in a bad flu season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

fritzelly

2 and half hours after Hubei normally release their figures and nada, even the national figures not released over an hour later than normal

Kermit.de.frog

A lot of 'not in my backyard' in the US in relation to housing evacuees and infected. Trump has cancelled another site in Alabama.

Viruses are people too.

citysights

givyjoe wrote: »

Because a) this isn't flu b) if People associate this as just being a flu, they wont take it seriously c) it's not comparable in terms of mortality rates, not even close.

What is it then? Does it not have flu like symptoms?

ldy4mxonucwsq6

creditcarder wrote: »

Imo, this is a good point. It's been going on for over two months now and it is about at the flue amount for one country.

The percentage of deaths in the currently reported 'closed cases' (cases where apparently the outcome is known) are at about 10%.

While the real CFR figure is probably going to be much less, that's a scary death rate and much higher than influenza.

wakka12

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Spanish flu was over 2% mortality. Swine flu in 2019 was higher than the regular seasonal flu as well. We also don't have a clue whether Covid mortality will be anything close to 2% at the moment. It might, but considering the level of asymptomatic or mild cases being reported at the moment I'd say it's reasonable to assume the mortality won't be that high.

It's a serious disease, and we need to keep an eye on it, but the fact that people are getting angry at those comparing it to similarly serious diseases is quite frankly bizarre.

It looks a good bit higher. On the cruise liner it is 0.45% right now, for example, and that is including all asymptomatic cases and the outcome of many cases has not yet been determined, as 36 other people are still in a serious condition on the ship.Which is over 5% of all who contracted it.

Doctor Jimbob

givyjoe wrote: »

Because a) this isn't flu b) if People associate this as just being a flu, they wont take it seriously c) it's not comparable in terms of mortality rates, not even close.

D) flu does not even come remotely close to putting that many/% people into a serious condition.

a) I know b) flu is a serious illness and anyone who doesn't treat it as such is an idiot. When most people say they had the flu, they had a cold c) based on what? d) you're comparing serious cases of a newly developing virus to something we've been handling for years. The vast majority of cases are most likely only producing mild symptoms.

I'm not saying this isnt something worth worrying about, it's clearly a serious illness. But to read some of the posts on here youd swear we were dealing with something closer to Ebola than the flu.

ZX7R

wakka12 wrote: »

It looks a good bit higher. On the cruise liner it is 0.45% right now, for example, and that is including all asymptomatic cases and the outcome of many cases has not yet been determined, as 36 other people are still in a serious condition on the ship.Which is over 5% of all who contracted it.

there is still people on the ship,i tought every one was removed.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

New figures available here.

Dave0301

fritzelly wrote: »

Ahem 0.01%

Depends on the figures used...did a rough calculation using CDC figures for the states. Got this from a Google, but I am agree that it 0.1% would be high for influenza.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

Sean 18

This is no way like the flu younger people are dying from this you don't hear of young people dying from the flu except in rare cases

fritzelly

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

New figures available here.

That's yesterdays figures

laurah591

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

New figures available here.

Those China figures look off - or old, no new deaths/limited cases from lastnights update which is odd as the SK, Japan & Italy figs look ok

Ficheall

Charli Substantial Racketeering wrote: »

New figures available here.

BNO is more up to date.

bodhrandude

Austria restarts train services to with Italy (Irish Times). Of course the two tested negative and I suppose they may test positive when they reach the other side.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zd0p96miSK8

laurah591

Ficheall wrote: »

BNO is more up to date.

I gather figures have not been released locally yet - i wonder will they stop altogether... now that we have cases emerging elsewhere