Storm Brendan Monday 13 Jan 2020 ** See Mod note in OP before posting**

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Meteorite58 wrote: »

A closer look at where might get some of the strongest winds, mapa bit crude but very useful.

To note that the wind speeds in bold white are generally high ground.

Looks like the Conor pass is a no go zone...I'm on high ground. I'm in deep do-do.

Meteorite58

Some close up gust predictions from the HARMONIE

Flippyfloppy

easypazz wrote: »

I get the impression they have pretty much said exposed western areas may see red alert conditions but they won't be giving county wide red warnings, as that results in a complete shutdown of areas of a county that are unlikely to experience anything more than a blustery day.

The warning system is seriously flawed, and need to be changed.

County councils should really retain some responsibility in that regard.

Meteorite58

Eliana Skinny Fruit wrote: »

Looks like the Conor pass is a no go zone...I'm on high ground. I'm in deep do-do.

Yeah, looks like the Dingle peninsula could get a fair battering.

Meteorite58

ICON 12Z bringing the storm in a bit lower on this run and clipping the W with the core. Showing extremely strong winds from Donegal down to Kerry, very strong along the S and SE.

I saw the ECM 06Z and no great change from earlier. Would need to verify the ICON by comparing with other models, can overdo it sometimes.

Either way very powerful storm.

Guffy

Wish i could read the above models

gozunda

Eliana Skinny Fruit wrote: »

Looks like the Conor pass is a no go zone...I'm on high ground. I'm in deep do-do.

Similar here. Just been out to tie things down before tmrw.

John Hutton

Folks, am I right in saying that the east coast should be fairly ok? I rely on the train to get from Drogheda to Dublin and also cycle a fair bit on either end. Going to leave the bike at home tomorrow but do you think there is a probability the train line would be affected? Perhaps at the estury at malahide or donabate?


(Thinking of just taking the day off if there's a decent chances trains would be cancelled from downed lines or trees)
,

Guffy

Guffy wrote: »

Wish i could read the above models

One guy in 12 is colour blind and diagrams like those are impossible or very difficult to read.

Icyseanfitz

Do ye think this is going red for costal Kerry?

Mortelaro

John Hutton wrote: »

Folks, am I right in saying that the east coast should be fairly ok? I rely on the train to get from Drogheda to Dublin and also cycle a fair bit on either end. Going to leave the bike at home tomorrow but do you think there is a probability the train line would be affected? Perhaps at the estury at malahide or donabate?


(Thinking of just taking the day off if there's a decent chances trains would be cancelled from downed lines or trees)
,

The ECM maps in that area posted by meteorite show possible gusts 70 to 100kmh
I'd say trains in your area wouldn't be cancelled at that
Wind in southerly or SW'erlies which wouldn't be as bad as directly onshore in terms of waves breaking either
But it would NOT be nice for cycling
The wind will have passed peak after 5 but it will still be unpleasant for a bike
These storms can vary track slightly in reality as opposed to model guesses at this range,so keep across posts from either meteorite or gaoth láidir and one or 2 more here as well as obviously Met Éireann for the latest
Varying track can have big impacts on local affects

JCX BXC

Interesting commentary so far (once you weed out the nonsense), looking like quite a severe storm, perhaps being the strongest one some areas will have encountered so far this season.

The Galway coast is really going to take a battering from this, if peak winds arrive with the high tides I can imagine alot of coastal flooding.

squarecircles

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Hooter23

You can see there are parts of the storm where there are ripples in the isobars and they are squeezed even tighter together creating even stronger winds...this could occur anywhere in a storm this big...Dangerous!

monty_python

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Yeah, looks like the Dingle peninsula could get a fair battering.

What about the beara?

Widdensushi

monty_python wrote: »

What about the beara?

not as bad

fits

Getting ON my first flight in four years tomorrow. OF COURSE.

Gaoth Laidir

Very cold Arctic outbreak over New Foundland, with a deep layer of cold air well below -20 C right down to the surface in a northwesterly wind. Higher up, a very strong westerly jet of up to 210 knots is what's feeding Brendan. This is Goose Bay's midday sounding. The red line is temperature.

Meteorite58

Taking shape way out to our W.

igCorcaigh

Hurricane force over Scotland eh?

squarecircles

Tonight

Becoming mostly dry early tonight, with clear spells at first and just a few scattered showers on
Atlantic coasts. Cloud will increase from the Atlantic, bringing more persistent rain to west and
southwest coasts towards morning. Southerly winds will gradually strengthen overnight, increasing
strong to gale force later on Atlantic coasts, with some severe and damaging gusts developing.
Minimum temperatures of 1 to 4 Celsius, coldest early on, with some patchy frost.

Tomorrow

Storm Brendan will produce extremely windy and wet weather on Monday,
with status Orangeweather warnings in force for all counties and status Red in sea areas. Galeforce southerly winds will extend countrywide during the morning, with severe and damaging gusts.
Heavy rain will extend from the Atlantic also, possibly thundery in places. There will be significant
risk of coastal flooding due to a combination of onshore winds, high spring tides and storm surge.
Clearer conditions, with squally showers of rain and hail, will follow from the west during the
afternoon and early evening, with the ongoing risk of thunder. Winds will veer southwesterly
with the clearance, easing a little in most areas, but it will remain stormy on western coasts, with
further severe gusts. Maximum temperatures 7 to 10 degrees.

met.ie

Oscar Bravo

Cork Airport TAF forecasting gusts up to 60 knots betwern 8am and 10am

watlantic

There's also a very strong Jet-stream predicted to be over Ireland until early Wednesday morning.

Fitzo123

squarecircles wrote: »

Tonight

Becoming mostly dry early tonight, with clear spells at first and just a few scattered showers on
Atlantic coasts. Cloud will increase from the Atlantic, bringing more persistent rain to west and
southwest coasts towards morning. Southerly winds will gradually strengthen overnight, increasing
strong to gale force later on Atlantic coasts, with some severe and damaging gusts developing.
Minimum temperatures of 1 to 4 Celsius, coldest early on, with some patchy frost.

Tomorrow

Storm Brendan will produce extremely windy and wet weather on Monday,
with status Orangeweather warnings in force for all counties and status Red in sea areas. Galeforce southerly winds will extend countrywide during the morning, with severe and damaging gusts.
Heavy rain will extend from the Atlantic also, possibly thundery in places. There will be significant
risk of coastal flooding due to a combination of onshore winds, high spring tides and storm surge.
Clearer conditions, with squally showers of rain and hail, will follow from the west during the
afternoon and early evening, with the ongoing risk of thunder. Winds will veer southwesterly
with the clearance, easing a little in most areas, but it will remain stormy on western coasts, with
further severe gusts. Maximum temperatures 7 to 10 degrees.

met.ie

From sound of that there’ll be no county red warnings...

sdanseo

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Hurricane force over Scotland eh?

Closer to our NW coast actually, see the 75kt barb beside the 77kt max highlighted in text.

That is still around 250-275 nautical miles, close to 500km offshore though. 1 degree of longtitude = 60nm or thereabouts at our latitude.

pad199207

If any red warnings are going to be issued for counties in the west and north west it would have been important to have them on the 6pm news. If not well then at least the 9pm news.

Cantona's Collars

watlantic wrote: »

There's also a very strong Jet-stream predicted to be over Ireland until early Wednesday morning.

Another low to move up over the country on Tuesday,a wet day from that following whatever comes tomorrow.

squarecircles

Fitzo123 wrote: »

From sound of that there’ll be no county red warnings...

i think they are hinting at it by highligting the marine red warning.
extreme exposed coastal extremities and islands off the west will probably experience red conditions.

yew_tree

Well I guess it’s wait and see...I’m due to be driving tomorrow for work along the west mayo coast. My company hq in Dublin won’t give a F unless it goes red and then they will have no choice but to pull us off the road.

sdanseo

yew_tree wrote: »

Well I guess it’s wait and see...I’m due to be driving tomorrow for work along the west mayo coast. My company hq in Dublin won’t give a F unless it goes red and then they will have no choice but to pull us off the road.

During Ophelia I told my boss I would be leaving early so as to beat the worst of the winds home - was driving 150km daily round trip at the time. He laughed and joked I needed to get back to work. About 30 mins later our MD instructed everyone to go home by 10am.

I smirked just a bit. Self righteous prick.