Property Market 2020

Villa05 · 08-07-2020 12:08pm

JimmyVik wrote:

Just to show the futility of trying to predict prices, I looked up property threads from 2011/2012 to see what people are giving advice now were advising then.

Thanks for the trip down memory lane. Advising to keep your powder dry in 2011 was not exactly bad advise seen as the bottom did not arrive until late 2012 for Dublin and 13/14 for the rest of the country where some people live also

Assetbacked · 08-07-2020 12:08pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

Thats the big problem I have with Daft reports.
Asking prices are not actual prices. They could be higher or lower.
The Daft report is pure marketing.

I think with the rental reports, it is really unlikely rents go for higher than the advertised prices and, until recently, probably didn't go for under asking so, as a result, the rental report on asking prices is probably fairly reliable.

Going forward, I'd say it's more likely to see rents going for less than advertised prices but I don't have any evidence including anecdotal evidence. It would be good to know though.

JamesMason · 08-07-2020 12:16pm

hmmm wrote: »

Agreed on the first 4, but 2020 is not a financial crisis like 2008.

In 2008 there was the risk of banks collapsing. The Central Banks have come out early during the current crisis and flooded the system with money - the banks have also been heavily capitalised to prevent a repeat of 2008.

It's a financial crisis for individuals and affected businesses, but as long as the Central Banks keep pushing out 0% loans to banks it won't become a crisis for the financial system itself.

That's what's underpinning the stock market currently - the belief that the financial system is sound, and that there will be losers but also winners. I don't necessarily agree they will balance out, but Ireland is in a better place than others to get more of the winners - we have a lot of tech companies who will end up winners in a remote-working environment with huge technology changes over a short period, and we have a large pharma sector.

We'll be operating an 80% economy for the rest of this year and hopefully a vaccine makes an appearance during 2021, but it's difficult to call what happens after that.

FDA reporting a 40% drop on FDI today. Also, Shannon airport laying off staff due to the drop in transatlantic travel. That doesn't inspire confidence in our economy.
Multiple airlines culling staff as long term investment in air travel is shelved. We have no quick fix for this pandemic unfortunately.

JimmyVik · 08-07-2020 12:18pm

JamesMason wrote: »

2008 was a financial crisis.
2020 is a healthcare, travel, cultural, lifestyle, political and financial crisis.

I was more pointing to the advice to hold off buying in Dec 2011.

And more advice to hold off buying in July 2020.

All valid reasons given, but if you followed that advice in Dec 2011 where would you be now? Where I am actually

Still holding off

JimmyVik · 08-07-2020 12:19pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Thanks for the trip down memory lane. Advising to keep your powder dry in 2011 was not exactly bad advise seen as the bottom did not arrive until late 2012 for Dublin and 13/14 for the rest of the country where some people live also

Agreed. But speaking as someone who held off in 2011 and am still holding off in 2020. It never pays to hold off

I say that as i am still holding off.

JimmyVik · 08-07-2020 12:22pm

JamesMason wrote: »

FDA reporting a 40% drop on FDI today. Also, Shannon airport laying off staff due to the drop in transatlantic travel. That doesn't inspire confidence in our economy.
Multiple airlines culling staff as long term investment in air travel is shelved. We have no quick fix for this pandemic unfortunately.

And we have gone from thinking the social distance is going to reduce from 2m to 1m, to the possibility of it doubling.
If the second wave comes, and it is looking like it is, then things will only get worse.

Marius34 · 08-07-2020 12:22pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Thanks for the trip down memory lane. Advising to keep your powder dry in 2011 was not exactly bad advise seen as the bottom did not arrive until late 2012 for Dublin and 13/14 for the rest of the country where some people live also

The lowest transaction price point in Dublin was reached in 2012 Q1, thus the best timing caught the ones going sale agreed in 2011 Q4 (for Dublin).

Deub · 08-07-2020 12:22pm

lastusername wrote: »

We're sale agreed but wondering if the vendor is going to pull it and sale prices are going up in the area, and probably throughout the country due to pent-up demand and ongoing lack of supply.

But if they do, maybe it will be a good thing as seems nobody knows what the market will be like towards the end of the year. I feel prices will remain fairly static but who knows, there could be a big drop either!

You think the vendor may pull out of the sale to put it on the market to get more money?

JimmyVik · 08-07-2020 12:26pm

Deub wrote: »

You think the vendor may pull out of the sale to put it on the market to get more money?

Probably more likely to that if the vendor is in a chain that anything could happen there now forcing the posters vendor to pull out too.
Its a big house of cards.

JamesMason · 08-07-2020 12:27pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

And we have gone from thinking the social distance is going to reduce from 2m to 1m, to the possibility of it doubling.
If the second wave comes, and it is looking like it is, then things will only get worse.

Judging by the **** show in Dublin city centre last weekend don't be surprised if we see a Melbourne style lockdown in the coming weeks.

Shelga · 08-07-2020 12:28pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

Agreed. But speaking as someone who held off in 2011 and am still holding off in 2020. It never pays to hold off
I say that as i am still holding off.

Well I have absolutely no idea what to do! Buy, or wait. Buy, or wait. Hmm...

JamesMason · 08-07-2020 12:28pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

And we have gone from thinking the social distance is going to reduce from 2m to 1m, to the possibility of it doubling.
If the second wave comes, and it is looking like it is, then things will only get worse.[/quo
Melbourne style lockdown after the craic in Dublin last wknd. Just wait and see

GreeBo · 08-07-2020 12:31pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Thanks for the trip down memory lane. Advising to keep your powder dry in 2011 was not exactly bad advise seen as the bottom did not arrive until late 2012 for Dublin and 13/14 for the rest of the country where some people live also

So your advice would mean those people spent 2 more years renting rather than just buy and "miss out" on the exact bottom of the market?

Just how many people do you think buy at the bottom? Is that your only criteria for buying?

At what point after 2013/14 did you advise people to start buying?

Markitron · 08-07-2020 12:38pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

Agreed. But speaking as someone who held off in 2011 and am still holding off in 2020. It never pays to hold off
I say that as i am still holding off.

Assuming you were in a position to buy back in 2011, can I ask why you still decided to hold off when the prices started to go back up in 2013 or thereabouts? Just curious, as I have no knowledge of the market back then. I am assuming it was somewhat obvious when the bottom was reached.

Villa05 · 08-07-2020 12:40pm

Villa05 wrote:

Start your research now Set up email alerts from daft with what falls close to your affordability range Log these on an excel sheet with the following fields.

Important: log all of the properties

Address
Agent
No of beds
Condition
Aspect
Broadband availability
Ber score
Asking price
Sold price (fill from property price reg) Time on the market and any other aspect of the property that is important to you.

This will arm you with indepth local knowledge of the market you wish to buy in. Many agents can be spoofers. This research will enable you to determine which agents are being honest with you and which are economical with the truth

Price trends will become apparent quickly. You can see what purchasers are prepared to pay more for. This will also show properties may have less demand because they don't have an attribute that may not be all that important to you.

Where a market has stalled or very low volume sales you will see when it has resumed quiet quickly, as properties you see as good value others will see the same thing and they will be the first to sell. This may be the time for you to make your move

This research will take you maybe 15 minutes a week. For you, it could save you a small fortune

JimmyVik wrote:

Agreed. But speaking as someone who held off in 2011 and am still holding off in 2020. It never pays to hold off I say that as i am still holding off.

The above helped greatly in identifying the bottom of the market in the last crash, might be worth a try

Billythekid19 · 08-07-2020 12:45pm

Markitron wrote: »

Assuming you were in a position to buy back in 2011, can I ask why you still decided to hold off when the prices started to go back up in 2013 or thereabouts? Just curious, as I have no knowledge of the market back then. I am assuming it was somewhat obvious when the bottom was reached.

And most people fail to realize that when the market is at the 'bottom' it is near impossible to find a property in a desirable location you want and to be able to get the finance required. A million euro house in Dalkey was not available for 500k during the bottom of the market. However you may have gotten a 2 bedroom cottage in the arse of Mayo for 50k instead of 100k during the boom.

Hubertj · 08-07-2020 1:03pm

Villa05 wrote: »

The above helped greatly in identifying the bottom of the market in the last crash, might be worth a try

did you ever say it was a good time to purchase a house?

Claw Hammer · 08-07-2020 1:12pm

Hubertj wrote: »

did you ever say it was a good time to purchase a house?

Buridan's ass, starved between 2 bales of hay since it couldn't make up its mind which to eat first.

08-07-2020 1:21pm

Billythekid19 wrote: »

.............A million euro house in Dalkey was not available for 500k during the bottom of the market............

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/monkstown-house-makes-1-2m-but-many-fail-to-sell-at-auction-1.1123688

"A four-bedroom detached bungalow at 1 Proby Park, Saval Park Road, Dalkey, was sold at a Lisney auction for £495,000"

10 years later it sold again.......

1 Proby Park, Saval Park Rd, Dalkey, Co. Dublin
€870,000 | 20/02/20 | Bungalow For Sale | 3 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms

awec · 08-07-2020 1:29pm

Augeo wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/monkstown-house-makes-1-2m-but-many-fail-to-sell-at-auction-1.1123688

"A four-bedroom detached bungalow at 1 Proby Park, Saval Park Road, Dalkey, was sold at a Lisney auction for £495,000"

10 years later it sold again.......

1 Proby Park, Saval Park Rd, Dalkey, Co. Dublin
€870,000 | 20/02/20 | Bungalow For Sale | 3 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms

That article is from 2000, 20 years ago?

Roberto_gas · 08-07-2020 1:37pm

120 houses listed in last 10 mins or daft has been hacked ! Getting non stop notifications of new listings

c.p.w.g.w · 08-07-2020 1:42pm

Billythekid19 wrote: »

I think it 100% depends on your situation in life when to buy. Id advise someone flexible and with few responsibilities to definitely hold off till next year to purchase a house. However if I had a young family and kids and was in a solid financial position I would 100% proceed and close a sale. With the inevitable second wave coming in the winter you could be talking at least another 6 months of being stuck in a rent trap paying typically 2k+ a month. By saving say 5% on a purchase price by holding off till next year you wouldve pissed away that amount on rent and potentially endured a miserable quality of life. So the best time to buy really is down to individual situations.

Everyones situation is different...

But take this example...

Young couple in Dublin, but working for a companys deemed to be solid, yet both on the wage subsidy scheme...

The company can't be all that solid as they are on the scheme...

They buy s gaff for 350k and by next January are both outta work, and house prices stalling or falling depending where snouts in Dublin they bought...

In that situation I'd be holding off pulling the trigger...

Buddy of mine has just been told his allowed WFH permanently (2 days a month on site) if that happens to more companies the need to live in Dublin I'd reduced

Mad_maxx · 08-07-2020 1:50pm

hmmm wrote: »

Agreed on the first 4, but 2020 is not a financial crisis like 2008.

In 2008 there was the risk of banks collapsing. The Central Banks have come out early during the current crisis and flooded the system with money - the banks have also been heavily capitalised to prevent a repeat of 2008.

It's a financial crisis for individuals and affected businesses, but as long as the Central Banks keep pushing out 0% loans to banks it won't become a crisis for the financial system itself.

That's what's underpinning the stock market currently - the belief that the financial system is sound, and that there will be losers but also winners. I don't necessarily agree they will balance out, but Ireland is in a better place than others to get more of the winners - we have a lot of tech companies who will end up winners in a remote-working environment with huge technology changes over a short period, and we have a large pharma sector.

We'll be operating an 80% economy for the rest of this year and hopefully a vaccine makes an appearance during 2021, but it's difficult to call what happens after that.

2008 was a systemic threat, this is not as serious

JimmyVik · 08-07-2020 1:50pm

Shelga wrote: »

Well I have absolutely no idea what to do! Buy, or wait. Buy, or wait. Hmm...

Me neither

JimmyVik · 08-07-2020 1:52pm

Markitron wrote: »

Assuming you were in a position to buy back in 2011, can I ask why you still decided to hold off when the prices started to go back up in 2013 or thereabouts? Just curious, as I have no knowledge of the market back then. I am assuming it was somewhat obvious when the bottom was reached.

Wasnt obvious at all at the time. Everything is crystal clear in hindsight though. Then when prices were rising I was thinking, oh wait, thats too fast, they have to come down again.

JimmyVik · 08-07-2020 1:53pm

Villa05 wrote: »

The above helped greatly in identifying the bottom of the market in the last crash, might be worth a try

Is that when you bought? You must have made a killing.

JimmyVik · 08-07-2020 1:54pm

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Buridan's ass, starved between 2 bales of hay since it couldn't make up its mind which to eat first.

Never heard that one before.

But that describes me and my home owner situation perfectly

08-07-2020 2:01pm

awec wrote: »

That article is from 2000, 20 years ago?

Apologies, I misread that article as being from 2010.

combat14 · 08-07-2020 3:16pm

wow cant believe daft report - average asking prices waterford city down 14-19%

average price 1 bed apartment 72,000 euro

looks like serious changes ahead

https://www.wlrfm.com/2020/07/08/135086/

Villa05 · 08-07-2020 3:23pm

Hubertj wrote:

did you ever say it was a good time to purchase a house?

It may come as a surprise to you but yes I have, even on here.

Top of the market is never a good time to buy and I feel that's where we are now

But most of my posts are focused on change to a market that is completely stacked against a buyer.
A bank screws up and the buyer has to pay either in higher interest rates or higher taxes

When you buy you are helping to cover the losses of multiple bad loans

When you buy at current High prices you are helping to set the price of social housing as it is sourced from the private market
This is a bill you have to cover also despite much cheaper options available

You have better consumer rights after buying a bar of chocolate than buying a house

Property Market 2020

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