Property Market 2020

OwlsZat

Mic 1972 wrote: »

How do people on Covid payment or Social Welfare influence the property market?

It's economics Mick

guyfawkes5

Mic 1972 wrote: »

How do people on Covid payment or Social Welfare influence the property market?

By their absence, and subsequent reappearance when their company comes off the subsidy or they get rehired.

neutral guy

lir6777 wrote: »

but the days of Irish people booking a one-way ticket to Australia, the UK or the US are gone for now- Australia is closed to us this year, and the rates of COVID in the us and the UK would mean you'd be entering a far more volatile situation again.

Yes,I am agree with you.But people are put under pressure already the more on way and this gona affect the property market in future.The other thing when media providing information about how many people signed out of the Covid payment at same time media does not provide information about unemployment level what make them reports more positive .

Well,the UK media anounced property prices fall in UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jun/05/uk-house-prices-fall-for-third-month-in-a-row-as-covid-19-stifles-market-halifax

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53247066

And sure this not gonna happen in Ireland I suppose.

lir6777

neutral guy wrote: »

Yes,I am agree with you.But people are put under pressure already the more on way and this gona affect the property market in future.The other thing when media providing information about how many people signed out of the Covid payment at same time media does not provide information about unemployment level what make them reports more positive .

Well,the UK media anounced property prices fall in UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jun/05/uk-house-prices-fall-for-third-month-in-a-row-as-covid-19-stifles-market-halifax

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53247066

And sure this not gonna happen in Ireland I suppose.

Nobody on here seems to be arguing your point that the property market is likely in for a hit. Your posts are just moving through different points quite fast so I've struggled to follow your train of thought at times. Apologies if I'm misinterpreting. For example, I think (I'm not sure though) that you're suggesting the media reports of the numbers of people signing out of the covid payments are somehow being used to suggest things aren't so bad economically? If so, I disagree, I think it's just a time of huge transition as many places try to reopen and so this is of interest both in terms of the level of recovery (or not) of the economy and also our national covid-related costs and debts. It's also the glimmer of hope the country needs to see right now after months of anxiety and fear to hear of people getting to return to some version of normality by returning to work. I think we're definitely in for a tough time though, and I have no doubt we will be hearing the unemployment stats more frequently in the coming months as the temporary covid measure winds down and as the true impact on the economy becomes easier to discern.

neutral guy

lir6777 wrote: »

Nobody on here seems to be arguing your point that the property market is likely in for a hit. Your posts are just moving through different points quite fast so I've struggled to follow your train of thought at times. Apologies if I'm misinterpreting. For example, I think (I'm not sure though) that you're suggesting the media reports of the numbers of people signing out of the covid payments are somehow being used to suggest things aren't so bad economically? If so, I disagree, I think it's just a time of huge transition as many places try to reopen and so this is of interest both in terms of the level of recovery (or not) of the economy and also our national covid-related costs and debts. It's also the glimmer of hope the country needs to see right now after months of anxiety and fear to hear of people getting to return to some version of normality by returning to work. I think we're definitely in for a tough time though, and I have no doubt we will be hearing the unemployment stats more frequently in the coming months as the temporary covid measure winds down and as the true impact on the economy becomes easier to discern.

The media has owners/the owners are shares holders of different types of companies which include property founds.And It is Fact ! For making money need make people think positively and create positive mood.When people feel positive they starting spend money which is good for all sides like bussines /bank/government except buyer who stay without money paying bills and debts.Property market is multi billion industry were serious people making serious money.If any journalist will say what he think or any property/bank expert will say real truth they will start looking for another job minutes after they will open them mouth because them owners will start loosing money.This is not conspiracy this is manipulation of people brains same as politicians use propaganda same business use his propaganda.Every serious company has speech experts who telling to representatives what to say and what not and how to say.Also I see how PA working with comments all arround the net trying create positive atmosphere making people hurry and buy property.

Did you ever see the "game" in Facebook comments were advertising is prohibited ? One person ( seller ) asking in comments Guys,were could I buy spinners ? This person bussiness partner ( seller parther ) answering making advertisement to seller Here,here you can buy it ! Other people watching it and go buy spinners from those guys.Same system and many different work everywhere.

Or PA coming to comments on boards and says The property of 340K was sold in couple days with 30K over asking .Some people who think buy property getting nervous reading it because does not want lose tickets for good price to last train before somebody will be quicker.


I am neutral to all sides and not try to come and say he is right and he is wrong we all die tomorrow I just try bring my point to make people start thinking from different sides to same thing.

So all what I could do is collect information piece by piece using my memory from last recessions and try understand what reality really will be.Because there will be no information about any recession at any central media ! Because once media will open her mouth to tell the truth her owner will start losing money imediatly.

neutral guy

I reading this forum and I found that some people does not really understand what is going on at the moment.Some says prices will rising because supply demand,other people says that nothing serious gonna happen because only couple hotels and restaurants will be closed and some low paid forners will go home.
At the moment I see Boeing cutting his production and 16K workers will go home.Do you know how many contractors/sub contractors /sub sub contractors around the world Boeing has ? How many tonnes of paint Boeing using ? Handles,locks,engines parts and thousands others which some of them are produced in Ireland ? How many people involved ? The seats for Boeing and other are made in Northern Ireland or engine parts somewhere in Ireland ? This is only Boeing guys,there is also Airbus and others !
I do not think recession will not coming.

Graham

neutral guy wrote: »

Do you know how many contractors/sub contractors /sub sub contractors around the world Boeing has ? How many tonnes of paint Boeing using ? Handles,locks,engines parts which some of them are produced in Ireland ?

How many based in Ireland?

how many Irish job are being cut?

The Wordress

I agree with you Neutral Guy.

Scary times ahead!

I live in a place that has a lot of weddings for 'outsiders'. When I think of all the people who are impacted from that industry alone, it's crazy. I know of one hotel who won't open this year and that's 100 people without jobs and then the knock off job losses from that too. Scary and shocking times. I feel for people, I really do.

Padre_Pio

neutral guy wrote: »

I reading this forum and I found that some people does not really understand what is going on at the moment.Some says prices will rising because supply demand,other people says that nothing serious gonna happen because only couple hotels and restaurants will be closed and some low paid forners will go home.
I do not think recession will not coming.

I think we're in the eye of the storm.

The govt has artificially paused the economy for the last 3 months.
Come January 2021 mortgage and bill payment holidays are over, PUP payments are gone, any company that can't survive social distancing has closed and half a million people are facing a tax bill of thousands for their 4 months of welfare.

We'll see what shape the economy is in then.

Remember that Northern Rock bank collapsed only a few months after the ISEQ peaked. You can have all the signs of prosperity right alongside signs the sky is falling.

neutral guy

Graham wrote: »

How many based in Ireland?

how many Irish job are being cut?

All similar

https://www.eirtechaviation.ie/

http://teg.com/

https://www.thompsonaero.com/

This is just very small part of all global producers supply system,there is a lot more in Ireland and not just aviation and more on way.This companies not just produce parts they also buy materials from suppliers,everything,from printer paper to high tech parts .

Not known all yet but they are on way.

Graham

I don't think anyone disagrees there are going to be significant job losses, across many sectors.

I assumed when you singled out Boeing there were some specific implications for the Irish property market.

neutral guy

Graham wrote: »

I don't think anyone disagrees there are going to be significant job losses, across many sectors.

I assumed when you singled out Boeing there were some specific implications for the Irish property market.

The people who work in hi tech industry has very good wages which let them buy the property.I am sure you know average incomes in Dublin and who earn them.The Boeing is just example .

GreeBo

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

By their absence, and subsequent reappearance when their company comes off the subsidy or they get rehired.

How many of them were planning to buy or sell though?
If they weren't, how are they impacting the market?

GreeBo

neutral guy wrote: »

The people who work in hi tech industry has very good wages which let them buy the property.I am sure you know average incomes in Dublin and who earn them.The Boeing is just example .

Are the people being let go the high or low wage workers though?
Typically it's the low wages

Deub

GreeBo wrote: »

Are the people being let go the high or low wage workers though?
Typically it's the low wages

It is usually a combination of both.
There is no point keeping high paid engineers if you decrease your R&D budget.

cnocbui

As I have said before, the resulting unemployment has to be enough to reduce the competition for each property on the market to one or fewer. Two or more interested in a property and there will be enough buyers to sustain prices.

Of course very high levels of unemployment will make a lot of people in secure employment nervous and so put a lot of them off. Of course that works both ways, a lot of nervousness will keep a lot of sellers from listing their properties, so it would probably even out.

GreeBo

Deub wrote: »

It is usually a combination of both.
There is no point keeping high paid engineers if you decrease your R&D budget.

Yeah, but the numbers are usually not at all the same.
1 high paid guy = multiple low paid guys
1 high paid guy is harder to replace than multiple low paid guys

Necronomicon

We were sale agreed pre-lockdown, but seller had to pull out.

We decided to cool off over the last 3 months amid all the uncertainty. Despite uncertainty still in abundance, we really need to move, so we've just dipped our toes back in the water. But it does not seem to be a good time to be looking.

I'm in Cork, for context. Of the three properties we've looked into in the last two weeks:

1. Viewed and offered the asking price, but it escalated above our budget, ended up sale agreed 40k above the initial asking price.

2. Viewed, but the asking was at the limit of our budget, and before we even made an offer it was at 5k above that.

3. Newly listed, and we are at the back of a long queue to see it, couldn't get a slot within 7 days of my phone call.

Added to that, our mortgage broker says he can't remember the last time he was this busy, even pre-COVID. His mortgage applications are through the roof.

So...I think we might cool off again until the madness (hopefully) subsides.

Bass Reeves

The first thing is the fundamental of this recession will be different to the last. Every recession is the same the fundamentals are different.

You can look at oil in the 70's,into the overspending induced recession of the 80's, the dot com of the noughties to the property/ financial recession of 2008-2014. In 208-14 we were over vunerable, you did not see the same issues in the UK, Germany or France. We were over borrowed, too many houses build and over reliant on the housing/building/property sector for taxes and employment.

This idea that anybody is neutral in this is laughable. Am I neutral, I may not be neutral but I have less to lose than many. I am semi retired and my children are at or nearing house buying age. I have cash and virtually no debt. One loan on a commercial tracker that is costing me less than 1.5 % at present.

If house prices drop I or some of my children buy if not they wait until they have higher deposits. First off nobody gives up there house first even aside from the fact banks find it impossible to repossess properties. If a Cuckoo fund goes bust who buys another vulture/asset management fund or the county council's.

People first reaction if they have to tighten there belt is to stop buy cars, put off the extension, stop redecorating, stop buying the Latte or Americans in the morning on the way to work. I just cannot see the fundamentals where properties prices collapse 20%+

Villa05

Graham wrote:

I assumed when you singled out Boeing there were some specific implications for the Irish property market.

It's not just Boeing, Tourism sector is gone for some time. Hospitality, entertainment, Public transport, sporting events, concerts amongst others

The commercial property sector is going to get hammered from retail and WFH. The sector is gighly leveraged and experienced a boom in supply over the last 5 years. The losses will spill over into residential and effect banks propensity to lend. Irish banks are still a one trick pony lending against property

cnocbui wrote:

As I have said before, the resulting unemployment has to be enough to reduce the competition for each property on the market to one or fewer. Two or more interested in a property and there will be enough buyers to sustain prices.

Of course very high levels of unemployment will make a lot of people in secure employment nervous and so put a lot of them off. Of course that works both ways, a lot of nervousness will keep a lot of sellers from listing their properties, so it would probably even out.

I don't get your theory, why did this theory not work in other downturns? Unemployment hit a high of 16% in the last recession. This meant that 84% were still employed. How come the 84% were not able to stop a 50% drop in house prices.

Graham

Villa05 wrote: »

I don't get your theory, why did this theory not work in other downturns? Unemployment hit a high of 16% in the last recession. This meant that 84% were still employed. How come the 84% were not able to stop a 50% drop in house prices.

Massive oversupply particularly of houses in non-primary areas and almost zero bank lending were major contributory factors.

The massive oversupply eventually lead to 'dumping' as frantic developers tried to offload at any cost, closely followed by receiver sales.

Bass Reeves

Villa05 wrote: »

It's not just Boeing, Tourism sector is gone for some time. Hospitality, entertainment, Public transport, sporting events, concerts amongst others

The commercial property sector is going to get hammered from retail and WFH. The sector is gighly leveraged and experienced a boom in supply over the last 5 years. The losses will spill over into residential and effect banks propensity to lend. Irish banks are still a one trick pony lending against property




I don't get your theory, why did this theory not work in other downturns? Unemployment hit a high of 16% in the last recession. This meant that 84% were still employed. How come the 84% were not able to stop a 50% drop in house prices.

We never saw house price collapse like 2008-14 in other recessions. 10% gets houses below building costs.

The oversupply after 2008is still there in places you can still buy houses at receiver sales at sub100k. However these are mostly limited now to Student apartments and holiday homes in certain area's.

Credit was another huge issue every bank was broke. In 2008 everybody taught they could own 2-3 houses, every business mantra was to expand, developers were completing developments before selling a single house. We even had businessmen buying banks and insurance companies

Assetbacked

Friend was working with an architect firm, on a project in Grand Canal Dock, was let go recently. The project is not yet completed as well
and is a commercial property.

Billythekid19

Necronomicon wrote: »

We were sale agreed pre-lockdown, but seller had to pull out.

We decided to cool off over the last 3 months amid all the uncertainty. Despite uncertainty still in abundance, we really need to move, so we've just dipped our toes back in the water. But it does not seem to be a good time to be looking.

I'm in Cork, for context. Of the three properties we've looked into in the last two weeks:

1. Viewed and offered the asking price, but it escalated above our budget, ended up sale agreed 40k above the initial asking price.

2. Viewed, but the asking was at the limit of our budget, and before we even made an offer it was at 5k above that.

3. Newly listed, and we are at the back of a long queue to see it, couldn't get a slot within 7 days of my phone call.

Added to that, our mortgage broker says he can't remember the last time he was this busy, even pre-COVID. His mortgage applications are through the roof.

So...I think we might cool off again until the madness (hopefully) subsides.

Interesting to hear of a real world experience! I reckon people just want to settle down before any second or third waves and are happy to pay above asking for piece of mind. The pause button will be pressed on the economy again when the next wave hits.

The Belly

Necronomicon wrote: »

We were sale agreed pre-lockdown, but seller had to pull out.

We decided to cool off over the last 3 months amid all the uncertainty. Despite uncertainty still in abundance, we really need to move, so we've just dipped our toes back in the water. But it does not seem to be a good time to be looking.

I'm in Cork, for context. Of the three properties we've looked into in the last two weeks:

1. Viewed and offered the asking price, but it escalated above our budget, ended up sale agreed 40k above the initial asking price.

2. Viewed, but the asking was at the limit of our budget, and before we even made an offer it was at 5k above that.

3. Newly listed, and we are at the back of a long queue to see it, couldn't get a slot within 7 days of my phone call.

Added to that, our mortgage broker says he can't remember the last time he was this busy, even pre-COVID. His mortgage applications are through the roof.

So...I think we might cool off again until the madness (hopefully) subsides.

I would hazard a guess and say that what you experienced is probably due to people afraid if they dont buy now they wont get a mortgage in a few months as the economic effects of this covid become clear. The media has had a good few articles recently about banks tightening up on lending.

fliball123

Villa05 wrote: »

It's not just Boeing, Tourism sector is gone for some time. Hospitality, entertainment, Public transport, sporting events, concerts amongst others

The commercial property sector is going to get hammered from retail and WFH. The sector is gighly leveraged and experienced a boom in supply over the last 5 years. The losses will spill over into residential and effect banks propensity to lend. Irish banks are still a one trick pony lending against property




I don't get your theory, why did this theory not work in other downturns? Unemployment hit a high of 16% in the last recession. This meant that 84% were still employed. How come the 84% were not able to stop a 50% drop in house prices.

Different scenarios at play with both recessions

Financial crash had the following properties
A big over hang of property available
Option for people to emigrate
The option for repossessing the family home was there
Banks over lent and nearly went bankrupt

This recession
Very few high end properties available and very scarce amount of any other property
No option to emigrate and people know they can stay in the family home without paying a mortgage for years.
Banks have been more strict and adhered to more prudent lending meaning people have a lot more skin in the game so the banks don't really need to repossess in big numbers anyway.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

predictable but pathetic populist boll*xology from SF. If programme for government included 1 million house, SF would say 2 million. And 24% people voted for these spoofers

Yesterday we were discussing a council offering a 750k long term lease for a 2 bed apartment. A left leaning party says we can build and sell affordable houses for 250k or rent them for 800 per month in urban areas

The current/previous government were buying/renting these from the private sector at market or above market rates.
The left leaning party want to build them on state owned land that is sitting idle.

Which policy appears to be more prudent?
Which policy appears to be better value for the tax payer?
Which is the best option for the economy?
Which policy has a greater chance of fixing the supply/demand imbalance?

Which policy has greater chance of preventing a property price bubble?

If the cost of providing hosing using government policy is twice the cost of build our own approach, is it populist to say we can build twice as much houses if we build our own

Villa05

Graham wrote:

Massive oversupply particularly of houses in non-primary areas and almost zero bank lending were major contributory factors.
The massive oversupply eventually lead to 'dumping' as frantic developers tried to offload at any cost, closely followed by receiver sales.

Nama prevented dumping

The UK property market fell by 30% was there a massive Oversupply there

Assetbacked

fliball123 wrote: »

Different scenarios at play with both recessions

Financial crash had the following properties
A big over hang of property available
Option for people to emigrate
The option for repossessing the family home was there
Banks over lent and nearly went bankrupt

This recession
Very few high end properties available and very scarce amount of any other property
No option to emigrate and people know they can stay in the family home without paying a mortgage for years.
Banks have been more strict and adhered to more prudent lending meaning people have a lot more skin in the game so the banks don't really need to repossess in big numbers anyway.

The other thing to note on this recession is that immigration is also likely to drop significantly. This feeds more into the rental market but of course BTLs are dependent on this inflow of people to ensure the rental market returns stay inflated. Without this demand, perhaps the BTLs get offered at lower rents (which makes it more attractive to rent rather than buy, e.g. because it's cheaper) or even sold to individuals (which increases supply to the market).

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Yesterday we were discussing a council offering a 750k long term lease for a 2 bed apartment. A left leaning party says we can build and sell affordable houses for 250k or rent them for 800 per month in urban areas

The current/previous government were buying/renting these from the private sector at market or above market rates.
The left leaning party want to build them on state owned land that is sitting idle.

Which policy appears to be more prudent?
Which policy appears to be better value for the tax payer?
Which is the best option for the economy?
Which policy has a greater chance of fixing the supply/demand imbalance?

Which policy has greater chance of preventing a property price bubble?

If the cost of providing hosing using government policy is twice the cost of build our own approach, is it populist to say we can build twice as much houses if we build our own

As i said in a previosu post i would like to see the accounting and business case around the 750k to understand how it was approved. It sounds ridiculous.

"APPEARS" says a lot about SF policy. It looks and sounds great on paper. What will it look like in practice.