Property Market 2020

JP100

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Mate are you just going to continue starting arguments with people.
You make some good points but it’s drowned out with the absolute nonsense. Jog on.

Don't engage in the very thing you accuse others of. Now do jog on, ta very much.

hometruths

alan_mur wrote: »

Unfortunately there was no price drops. DNG wiped out the history on these properties so you can't see what date they were first listed. If you want to see, do a search on twitter for the property, you should find the starting price and when they were first listed.

I got a flood of daft alerts this week so googled address of one at random:

1 Ormonde Terrace, Dalkey - new listing on 16/04/2020 - £699,950
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/dalkey/1-ormond-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dublin-2475503/

First result in google links to page on daft saying "1 Ormond Terrace, Sorrento Road, Dalkey, South Co. Dublin. This property has been either sold or withdrawn from Daft.ie, here are some similar properties in the area."

Google cache of that page "as it appeared on 12 Apr 2020 06:24:51 GMT" has the house listed as sale agreed with an asking price of £724,950, page indicates house went sale agreed in January. http://tiny.cc/nwv9mz

These mass relistings may well be masking sale agreeds falling through as well as price drops.

Hubertj

Augeo wrote: »

Folk were of the view demand wouldn't fall as those effected weren't house buyer types etc etc. Poorly paid retail workers....

I thought that people were arguing that demand will fall and prices with it but because there is such a shortage of units this will reduce the severity of the reductions?

Then someone posted link to CSPO report about there being 200k empty houses and that it is all a lie an there is no shortage of units. Then others poohed on the CSO report?

My question is what does a “significant” mean in terms of a drop in prices? Is 15% significant? How long did it take for prices to increase 15%? 2 or 3 years?

awec

schmittel wrote: »

I got a flood of daft alerts this week so googled address of one at random:

1 Ormonde Terrace, Dalkey - new listing on 16/04/2020 - £699,950
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/dalkey/1-ormond-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dublin-2475503/

First result in google links to page on daft saying "1 Ormond Terrace, Sorrento Road, Dalkey, South Co. Dublin. This property has been either sold or withdrawn from Daft.ie, here are some similar properties in the area."

Google cache of that page "as it appeared on 12 Apr 2020 06:24:51 GMT" has the house listed as sale agreed with an asking price of £724,950, page indicates house went sale agreed in January. http://tiny.cc/nwv9mz

These mass relistings may well be masking sale agreeds falling through as well as price drops.

Roughly a 3% drop, though 25k off a 725k house is not much to write home about.

While it's still way too early to tell, it certainly seems in line with the relatively glacial pace of property price changes.

Dwarf.Shortage

eagle eye wrote: »

Is this meant to be a joke because it doesn't appear that way and the 50% suggestion sounds ludicrous nevermind the 185.

You're aware a 185% drop would mean a house that currently costs €300k would cost minus €245k. I think we can file it safely under joke.

alan_mur

schmittel wrote: »

I got a flood of daft alerts this week so googled address of one at random:

1 Ormonde Terrace, Dalkey - new listing on 16/04/2020 - £699,950
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/dalkey/1-ormond-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dublin-2475503/

First result in google links to page on daft saying "1 Ormond Terrace, Sorrento Road, Dalkey, South Co. Dublin. This property has been either sold or withdrawn from Daft.ie, here are some similar properties in the area."

Google cache of that page "as it appeared on 12 Apr 2020 06:24:51 GMT" has the house listed as sale agreed with an asking price of £724,950, page indicates house went sale agreed in January. http://tiny.cc/nwv9mz

These mass relistings may well be masking sale agreeds falling through as well as price drops.

I know another one in that batch that had been sale agreed and isn't anynore. Sale agreed was €30k below asking price but they relisted at the original asking price.

Brianmwalker

schmittel wrote: »

I got a flood of daft alerts this week so googled address of one at random:

1 Ormonde Terrace, Dalkey - new listing on 16/04/2020 - £699,950
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/dalkey/1-ormond-terrace-sorrento-road-dalkey-dublin-2475503/

First result in google links to page on daft saying "1 Ormond Terrace, Sorrento Road, Dalkey, South Co. Dublin. This property has been either sold or withdrawn from Daft.ie, here are some similar properties in the area."

Google cache of that page "as it appeared on 12 Apr 2020 06:24:51 GMT" has the house listed as sale agreed with an asking price of £724,950, page indicates house went sale agreed in January. http://tiny.cc/nwv9mz

These mass relistings may well be masking sale agreeds falling through as well as price drops.

How do you get the old cache page?

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Roughly a 3% drop, though 25k off a 725k house is not much to write home about.

While it's still way too early to tell, it certainly seems in line with the relatively glacial pace of property price changes.

My point was more about the sale agreed falling through than % price drop.

Having said that, I'd agree that 3% is nothing, particularly when asking prices mean nothing.

It's meaningless as we do not know what house went sale agreed at.

For all we know in the rising market it might have gone sale agreed at 10% over asking - circa 800k

In a market with weaker confidence top bid might be 5% below asking - i.e 665k.

If that scenario played out it would represent a 17% drop in price, fairly significant.

hometruths

Brianmwalker wrote: »

How do you get the old cache page?

click on the little down arrow beside the search result and it will show you a link to Cached.

Bigmac1euro

Brianmwalker wrote: »

How do you get the old cache page?

How to get to a cached link
On your computer, do a Google search for the page you want to find.
Click the green down arrow to the right of the site's URL.
Click Cached.
When you're on the cached page, click the current page link to get back to the live page.
Tip: If there's a cached page that you need removed from Google Search results, learn how to remove old or deleted information from Google.

awec

Hubertj wrote: »

I thought that people were arguing that demand will fall and prices with it but because there is such a shortage of units this will reduce the severity of the reductions?

Then someone posted link to CSPO report about there being 200k empty houses and that it is all a lie an there is no shortage of units. Then others poohed on the CSO report?

My question is what does a “significant” mean in terms of a drop in prices? Is 15% significant? How long did it take for prices to increase 15%? 2 or 3 years?

I can't find the stats but I think a 15% drop would maybe knock 2 or 3 years off prices? So you'd be buying at 2018 prices?

Someone will correct me if I'm wrong I am sure.

Ozark707

awec wrote: »

lOf course if demand didn't fall at all prices wouldn't fall, that would be nonsensical as it would just be a continuation of the market as it is today.

Demand (in terms of numbers of people looking to buy) could remain static but if credit was constricted (no exemptions etc) then prices would still fall in that circumstance.

There have been a few reports on boards that banks are tightening up (not surprising having been so badly burned in 07).

Marius34

Reversal wrote: »

Yet, here on boards, John and Mary who recently bought a new build off plans at 90% LTV cannot fathom how prices can fall, because "people still need somewhere to live"

awec wrote: »

I think you’re having an argument with yourself at this stage. Who thinks prices can’t fall?

Augeo wrote: »

Except some experts on here.

awec wrote: »

Really? I don’t think I’ve seen anyone on here suggest prices can’t fall or come down?

I'll say it is worth a Prize to find John or Mary...

Ozark707

awec wrote: »

I can't find the stats but I think a 15% drop would maybe knock 2 or 3 years off prices? So you'd be buying at 2018 prices?

Someone will correct me if I'm wrong I am sure.

Here is a good link with a breakdown in many categories

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/e9ce2892326bd83e2be5/

For example,

houses in South Dublin are currently at the same price as approx Sep 18
houses in DLR are currently at the same price as Dec 17
houses in Fingal are higher than anytime since '10 onwards

So it depends on where you are looking, but a 15% correction would bring you back probably to sometime in '16 in some parts of Dublin.

Reversal

awec wrote: »

I can't find the stats but I think a 15% drop would maybe knock 2 or 3 years off prices? So you'd be buying at 2018 prices?

Someone will correct me if I'm wrong I am sure.

In a Dublin context, we are already around 3% off the 2018 peak.

A 15% drop from here would bring us back to Q3 2016.

A 20% drop would bring us back to 2015.

Source CSO

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

My question is what does a “significant†mean in terms of a drop in prices? Is 15% significant? How long did it take for prices to increase 15%? 2 or 3 years?

I don't think it is unrealistic to see a 15% drop. A big part of the increases in price was the exemptions to the cb rules and that appears to be neutral in the Dublin market as of February figures. If as expected they are gone for a while, that on its own will see a significant reduction
Add in the expected unemployment and wage cuts.
I can't see how we are going to come out of this without tax rising despite the promises

Claw Hammer

Villa05 wrote: »

I don't think it is unrealistic to see a 15% drop. A big part of the increases in price was the exemptions to the cb rules and that appears to be neutral in the Dublin market as of February figures. If as expected they are gone for a while, that on its own will see a significant reduction
Add in the expected unemployment and wage cuts.
I can't see how we are going to come out of this without tax rising despite the promises

Putting % figures on the potential drop at this stage is like using a monkey to throw darts at the stock exchange register and buying the shares the dart hits.
There are far to many variables to play out yet.

Spring Celebrator

Can we expect to see drop in prices at new build houses that are already on the market?

Villa05

Spring Celebrator wrote:

Can we expect to see drop in prices at new build houses that are already on the market?

Probably see them there first, as most likely, they were built with borrowed money

Graham

Spring Celebrator wrote: »

Can we expect to see drop in prices at new build houses that are already on the market?

Many of those houses were pre-sold before the foundations were laid.

I expect some will return to the market as the original buyers will not be in a position to complete.

Spring Celebrator

Graham wrote: »

Many of those houses were pre-sold before the foundations were laid.

I expect some will return to the market as the original buyers will not be in a position to complete.

I meant new development, not pre owned sorry for the confusion.

awec

Spring Celebrator wrote: »

I meant new development, not pre owned sorry for the confusion.

So does Graham.

Most new builds in Ireland these days are sold before the house is actually built. Lower risk for developers as it decreases the chance significantly of them being left with a lot of houses that they lose money on.

Bigmac1euro

awec wrote: »

So does Graham.

Most new builds in Ireland these days are sold before the house is actually built. Lower risk for developers as it decreases the chance significantly of them being left with a lot of houses that they lose money on.

Most???
Is this actually true?

Dylan94

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Most???
Is this actually true?

From my experience yes. All of my friends are around the house buying age now and a good few have recently bought a new build in Dublin. The soonest person to move in was 6 months after purchase.
Where the housing estate is now for one of them was simply a field a year ago when they bought and are due to get keys soon.

jrosen

There was a lot of new builds during the last recession that sat idle. Builders not prepared to sell at a loss so they waited it out.
I would imagine we may see this again, especially with builders who are financially sound. They will have no need to take a hit on a new build and will simply close off and wait.

Villa05

jrosen wrote:

There was a lot of new builds during the last recession that sat idle. Builders not prepared to sell at a loss so they waited it out. I would imagine we may see this again, especially with builders who are financially sound. They will have no need to take a hit on a new build and will simply close off and wait.

It was not "they waited it out", rather bailed out. That won't happen this time.

Another thing to note, banks can't be bailed out either, it must be a bail in before any support happens

hometruths

eagle eye wrote: »

Is there any good place the read up on projections for the rest of 2020 as regards what way house prices will go?
I really need some good advice on the matter urgently.
Alternatively who would you ask? Auctioneer, accountant or somebody to n the financial industry?

As other posters have correctly pointed out nobody has a clue with any certainty what will happen. All you can do is inform yourself of the so called experts view to help your decision making.

One thing I have found helpful is trying to look at what the experts were saying pre coronavirus - eg: an outlook for 2020 published on January 8th https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/another-year-of-dysfunction-ahead-for-ireland-s-property-market-1.4133293

Tone of the article is basically, tread carefully, don't expect major price rises, some falls have been recorded, may have been due to Brexit, things might be flat, but supply still tight so they might rise a bit, but rents unlikely to increase further so sales prices might fall a bit etc etc

One line in particular stood out:

The upcoming general election here is another possible fly in the ointment, with the potential for some politician or other to utter a throwaway comment on the housing crisis that could spook the market.

I cannot help thinking that if informed commentators serious thought a throwaway comment from a politician might spook the market then the balance of probabilities suggests that a global pandemic that shuts down the world's economy might do the same!

Spring Celebrator

So I guess asking for a 5% reduction in price atm woudn't be too cheeky (price is around 250k). I imagine they rather sell the house slightly cheaper than sit on it.
btw 2 houses that we were considering to buy are back on the market (from sale agreed).

jrosen

Villa05 wrote: »

It was not "they waited it out", rather bailed out. That won't happen this time.

Another thing to note, banks can't be bailed out either, it must be a bail in before any support happens

Nope they waited it out, the ones that I knew of anyway. The houses sat vacant for almost 7 years before they went back to market again. I worked for an engineer at the time. So both personally at through work I saw this happen.
Much like home owners, if people dont need to move they wont.

No one is going to take less for a property if they dont need too.

Builders are also playing the long game this time round, often builder smaller phases before moving to the next. Leaving them less financially exposed.

Padre_Pio

Spring Celebrator wrote: »

So I guess asking for a 5% reduction in price atm woudn't be too cheeky (price is around 250k). I imagine they rather sell the house slightly cheaper than sit on it.
btw 2 houses that we were considering to buy are back on the market (from sale agreed).

I'm in the same boat. Paused my sale until all this is over.

Don't want to immediately end up in negative equity, planning to sell on in a few years.